FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $353.52

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $358.58 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $353.52 UNDERWATER $44.48 (11.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 6 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $358.58 (banked floor $351.05) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$14,598/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,087/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-1,680	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,299/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$14,598/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $358.58 (probe: $357.5C 14d) still earns $13,393/mo (92% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

was $1,680 · 178% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$358.58 → $351.05

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 48 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $414.70 (+17%) · daily UBB $371.16 · 1-wk expected move ±$24 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $358.58 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $370 31 Jul 2026 (14d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$3,775

Income / mo

$8,089

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $15.59/sh now → $11.03 mid-life (likely $12.79–$17.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,488 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 14, at $375 (overshoots $5.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$371	14 Aug 2026	21d left	+$2.77/sh	+$1,387 cycle +$5,162 [+$330…+$1,358] · 91% credit	68% surv 54%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$370	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.76/sh	+$878 cycle +$4,653 [+$112…+$869] · 85% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$371	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.99/sh	+$497 cycle +$4,272 [-$316…+$449] · 47% credit	68% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$376	14 Aug 2026	21d left	+$0.78/sh	+$390 cycle +$4,165 [-$754…+$246] · 31% credit	71% surv 59%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$401	14 Aug 2026	21d left	-$7.09/sh	-$3,547 cycle +$228 [-$5,698…-$4,154]	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $3,775 debit $3,547 (94% used ≈ 1.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$228 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,810/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$1,950

Income / mo

$8,357

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.70/sh now → $9.69 mid-life (likely $9.99–$16.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 875 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $384 (overshoots $6.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.70/sh	+$1,348 cycle +$3,298 [+$675…+$1,929] · 98% credit	68% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$384	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$3.27/sh	+$1,636 cycle +$3,586 [+$482…+$2,214] · 90% credit	71% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$381	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.98/sh	+$492 cycle +$2,442 [-$355…+$930] · 56% credit	70% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$389	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.15/sh	+$575 cycle +$2,525 [-$736…+$1,001] · 50% credit	73% surv 64%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$404	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$3.45/sh	-$1,727 cycle +$223 [-$3,642…-$1,578] · 6% credit	81% surv 76%
budget: banked $1,950 debit $1,727 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$223 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,898/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $410 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $410)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,155

Income / mo

$1,238

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (30 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.804 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,031 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,346

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$380	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.45	5/5	$7,393	$7,393	83%	85%	+$3,363	-$0	0.0%	$2,076 (vs do-nothing +$730)
$377.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.90	5/5	$8,357	$8,357	80%	84%	+$3,540	-$0	0.0%	$2,301 (vs do-nothing +$955)
$375	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	4/5	$7,800	$8,226	78%	82%	+$3,215	-$0	0.0%	$2,370 (vs do-nothing +$1,024)
$372.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.05	4/5	$8,657	$9,084	76%	81%	+$3,229	-$0	0.0%	$2,570 (vs do-nothing +$1,224)
$370	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.85	3/5	$7,521	$8,374	73%	79%	+$2,725	-$0	0.0%	$2,504 (vs do-nothing +$1,158)
$370	14d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	5/5	$8,089	$8,089	70%	77%	+$2,410	-$0	0.0%	$4,126 (vs do-nothing +$2,780)
$367.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.60	3/5	$8,486	$9,339	70%	77%	+$2,863	-$0	0.0%	$2,729 (vs do-nothing +$1,383)
$367.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$8.35	5/5	$8,946	$8,946	67%	76%	+$2,420	-$0	0.0%	$4,526 (vs do-nothing +$3,180)
$365	7d	24 Jul 2026	$7.45	3/5	$9,579	$10,431	67%	76%	+$3,021	-$0	0.0%	$2,984 (vs do-nothing +$1,638)
$365	14d	31 Jul 2026	$9.25	4/5	$7,929	$8,355	65%	74%	+$2,064	-$0	0.0%	$4,250 (vs do-nothing +$2,904)
$365	21d	7 Aug 2026	$10.65	5/5	$7,607	$7,607	64%	74%	+$1,892	-$0	0.0%	$5,676 (vs do-nothing +$4,330)
$362.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$8.30	3/5	$10,671	$11,524	64%	74%	+$3,064	-$0	0.0%	$3,239 (vs do-nothing +$1,893)
$362.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$10.10	4/5	$8,657	$9,084	62%	73%	+$2,057	-$0	0.0%	$4,590 (vs do-nothing +$3,244)

Show 17 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$360	14d	31 Jul 2026	$10.55	4/5	$9,043	$9,469	59%	71%	+$1,637	-$0	0.0%	$4,770 (vs do-nothing +$3,424)
$360	21d	7 Aug 2026	$12.80	4/5	$7,314	$7,741	59%	71%	+$1,684	-$0	0.0%	$5,670 (vs do-nothing +$4,324)
$360	28d	14 Aug 2026	$14.10	5/5	$7,554	$7,554	59%	71%	+$1,688	-$0	0.0%	$7,401 (vs do-nothing +$6,055)
$357.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$10.45	2/5	$8,957	$10,236	57%	71%	+$2,238	-$0	0.0%	$2,823 (vs do-nothing +$1,477)
$357.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$12.50	3/5	$8,036	$8,889	57%	70%	+$1,824	-$0	0.0%	$4,176 (vs do-nothing +$2,830)
$355	28d	14 Aug 2026	$16.05	5/5	$8,598	$8,598	54%	69%	+$1,542	-$0	0.0%	$6,587 (vs do-nothing +$5,241)
$355	21d	7 Aug 2026	$14.85	4/5	$8,486	$8,912	54%	69%	+$1,625	-$0	0.0%	$5,059 (vs do-nothing +$3,713)
$355	7d	24 Jul 2026	$11.75	2/5	$10,071	$11,351	54%	69%	+$2,399	-$0	0.0%	$2,583 (vs do-nothing +$1,237)
$355	14d	31 Jul 2026	$13.50	3/5	$8,679	$9,531	54%	69%	+$1,754	-$0	0.0%	$3,726 (vs do-nothing +$2,380)
$352.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$14.65	3/5	$9,418	$10,271	51%	68%	+$1,724	-$0	0.0%	$3,321 (vs do-nothing +$1,975)
$352.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$12.85	2/5	$11,014	$12,294	50%	68%	+$2,300	-$0	0.0%	$2,303 (vs do-nothing +$957)
$350	28d	14 Aug 2026	$18.40	4/5	$7,886	$8,312	49%	67%	+$1,224	-$0	0.0%	$4,479 (vs do-nothing +$3,133)
$350	21d	7 Aug 2026	$17.45	3/5	$7,479	$8,331	48%	66%	+$1,275	-$0	0.0%	$3,411 (vs do-nothing +$2,065)
$350	14d	31 Jul 2026	$15.50	3/5	$9,964	$10,817	48%	66%	+$1,443	-$0	0.0%	$2,826 (vs do-nothing +$1,480)
$350	7d	24 Jul 2026	$14.30	2/5	$12,257	$13,536	47%	66%	+$2,411	-$0	0.0%	$2,093 (vs do-nothing +$747)
$347.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$17.30	2/5	$7,414	$8,694	45%	65%	+$1,144	-$0	0.0%	$2,193 (vs do-nothing +$847)
$347.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$15.25	2/5	$13,071	$14,351	43%	65%	+$2,003	-$0	0.0%	$1,783 (vs do-nothing +$437)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 09:48