FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $347.14

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.60 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $347.14 UNDERWATER $50.86 (12.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 6 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.60 (banked floor $368.47) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$13,446/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,317/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,188	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,723/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$13,446/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $375.60 (probe: $375C 14d) still earns $4,179/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,198

was $11,188 · 27% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$375.60 → $368.47

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 32 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $414.18 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.23 · 1-wk expected move ±$25 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $375.60 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $390 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,575

Income / mo

$1,688

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $395 31 Jul 2026 (14d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$860

Income / mo

$1,843

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$398	14 Aug 2026	21d left	+$0.66/sh	+$328 cycle +$1,188 [-$143…+$1,453] · 69% credit	67% surv 55%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$395	7 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.19/sh	-$97 cycle +$763 [-$442…+$908] · 53% credit	65% surv 52%

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $380 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

91%

Touch odds

19%

Per cycle

$1,070

Income / mo

$4,586

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.06/sh now → $9.23 mid-life (likely $8.77–$14.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 564 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $387 (overshoots $6.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.92/sh	+$958 cycle +$2,028 [+$418…+$1,630] · 92% credit	66% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$388	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.00/sh	+$999 cycle +$2,069 [-$174…+$1,653] · 70% credit	68% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$383	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.53/sh	+$265 cycle +$1,335 [-$394…+$886] · 55% credit	68% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$393	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$36 cycle +$1,106 [-$982…+$742] · 43% credit	74% surv 65%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$398	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$1.87/sh	-$936 cycle +$134 [-$2,183…-$300] · 18% credit	76% surv 70%
budget: banked $1,070 debit $936 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$134 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,601/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.777 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,056 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $509

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$372.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.30	5/5	$7,071	$7,071	81%	84%	+$2,132	-$0	0.0%	$-31 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$370	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	5/5	$7,821	$7,821	79%	82%	+$2,019	-$975	3.8%	$-1,106 (vs do-nothing $-1,615)
$367.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	4/5	$7,200	$7,474	76%	80%	+$1,765	-$1,560	6.1%	$-1,563 (vs do-nothing $-2,072)
$365	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.70	4/5	$8,057	$8,331	74%	79%	+$1,717	-$2,360	9.3%	$-2,363 (vs do-nothing $-2,872)
$362.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	3/5	$6,943	$7,491	71%	77%	+$1,416	-$2,310	9.1%	$-2,185 (vs do-nothing $-2,694)
$365	14d	31 Jul 2026	$6.50	5/5	$6,964	$6,964	71%	77%	+$1,304	-$2,050	8.0%	$-2,181 (vs do-nothing $-2,690)
$362.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	5/5	$7,661	$7,661	68%	75%	+$1,284	-$2,975	11.7%	$-3,106 (vs do-nothing $-3,615)
$360	14d	31 Jul 2026	$8.00	4/5	$6,857	$7,131	66%	74%	+$1,125	-$3,040	11.9%	$-3,043 (vs do-nothing $-3,552)
$357.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.90	3/5	$8,871	$9,420	65%	73%	+$1,493	-$3,360	13.2%	$-3,235 (vs do-nothing $-3,744)
$357.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$8.75	4/5	$7,500	$7,774	63%	73%	+$1,076	-$3,740	14.7%	$-3,743 (vs do-nothing $-4,252)
$355	7d	24 Jul 2026	$7.85	2/5	$6,729	$7,551	62%	72%	+$1,080	-$2,550	10.0%	$-2,297 (vs do-nothing $-2,806)
$355	14d	31 Jul 2026	$9.20	4/5	$7,886	$8,160	61%	71%	+$706	-$4,560	17.9%	$-4,563 (vs do-nothing $-5,072)
$355	21d	7 Aug 2026	$11.05	5/5	$7,893	$7,893	60%	71%	+$1,264	-$4,775	18.7%	$-4,906 (vs do-nothing $-5,415)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$352.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$8.70	2/5	$7,457	$8,280	59%	70%	+$999	-$2,880	11.3%	$-2,627 (vs do-nothing $-3,136)
$352.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$10.55	3/5	$6,782	$7,331	58%	70%	+$779	-$3,765	14.8%	$-3,640 (vs do-nothing $-4,149)
$350	7d	24 Jul 2026	$9.55	2/5	$8,186	$9,009	56%	68%	+$834	-$3,210	12.6%	$-2,957 (vs do-nothing $-3,466)
$350	14d	31 Jul 2026	$11.30	3/5	$7,264	$7,813	55%	68%	+$591	-$4,290	16.8%	$-4,165 (vs do-nothing $-4,674)
$350	21d	7 Aug 2026	$12.50	4/5	$7,143	$7,417	55%	68%	+$668	-$5,240	20.5%	$-5,243 (vs do-nothing $-5,752)
$350	28d	14 Aug 2026	$14.10	5/5	$7,554	$7,554	55%	68%	+$717	-$5,750	22.5%	$-5,881 (vs do-nothing $-6,390)
$347.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$12.55	3/5	$8,068	$8,616	52%	67%	+$670	-$4,665	18.3%	$-4,540 (vs do-nothing $-5,049)
$347.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$10.90	2/5	$9,343	$10,166	52%	67%	+$1,011	-$3,440	13.5%	$-3,187 (vs do-nothing $-3,696)
$345	28d	14 Aug 2026	$16.00	4/5	$6,857	$7,131	50%	67%	+$604	-$5,840	22.9%	$-5,843 (vs do-nothing $-6,352)
$345	21d	7 Aug 2026	$14.45	4/5	$8,257	$8,531	50%	66%	+$431	-$6,460	25.3%	$-6,463 (vs do-nothing $-6,972)
$345	14d	31 Jul 2026	$13.65	3/5	$8,775	$9,324	49%	65%	+$596	-$5,085	19.9%	$-4,960 (vs do-nothing $-5,469)
$345	7d	24 Jul 2026	$11.65	2/5	$9,986	$10,809	49%	65%	+$587	-$3,790	14.9%	$-3,537 (vs do-nothing $-4,046)
$342.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$14.90	3/5	$9,579	$10,127	47%	64%	+$562	-$5,460	21.4%	$-5,335 (vs do-nothing $-5,844)
$342.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$13.15	2/5	$11,271	$12,094	45%	64%	+$717	-$3,990	15.6%	$-3,737 (vs do-nothing $-4,246)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 21:37