FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $344.93

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.64 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $344.93 UNDERWATER $53.07 (13.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 5 days. The recommended CC (6d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.64 (banked floor $368.52) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$14,885/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,297/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-12,075	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,442/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$14,885/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $375.64 (probe: $375C 13d) still earns $3,923/mo (26% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$9,086

was $12,075 · 25% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$375.64 → $368.52

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 26 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $414.12 (+20%) · daily UBB $369.34 · 1-wk expected move ±$23 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $375.64 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $380 14 Aug 2026 (27d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

79%

Touch odds

44%

Per cycle

$2,125

Income / mo

$2,361

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (6d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$890

Income / mo

$4,450

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $12.63/sh now → $8.93 mid-life (likely $7.75–$13.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 442 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $384 (overshoots $6.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.51/sh	+$1,255 cycle +$2,145 [+$1,016…+$2,306] · 99% credit	67% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$388	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.02/sh	+$509 cycle +$1,399 [-$242…+$1,528] · 66% credit	73% surv 63%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$383	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.18/sh	+$89 cycle +$979 [-$456…+$940] · 55% credit	70% surv 59%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$393	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.75/sh	-$375 cycle +$515 [-$1,353…+$519] · 38% credit	75% surv 68%
budget: banked $890 debit $375 (42% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$515 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,112/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $395 14 Aug 2026 (27d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,140

Income / mo

$1,267

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (25 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.781 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,991 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $371

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$367.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$3.35	5/5	$8,375	$8,375	82%	85%	+$3,858	-$2,394	9.4%	$-2,477 (vs do-nothing $-2,849)
$365	6d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	4/5	$7,700	$7,910	79%	83%	+$3,274	-$2,715	10.6%	$-2,708 (vs do-nothing $-3,079)
$362.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	4/5	$9,000	$9,210	76%	81%	+$3,614	-$3,455	13.5%	$-3,448 (vs do-nothing $-3,819)
$357.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	3/5	$8,925	$9,345	70%	77%	+$3,063	-$3,656	14.3%	$-3,558 (vs do-nothing $-3,929)
$360	13d	31 Jul 2026	$6.90	5/5	$7,962	$7,962	70%	77%	+$2,252	-$4,369	17.1%	$-4,452 (vs do-nothing $-4,824)
$357.50	13d	31 Jul 2026	$7.65	5/5	$8,827	$8,827	67%	75%	+$2,274	-$5,244	20.6%	$-5,327 (vs do-nothing $-5,699)
$355	6d	24 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$10,200	$10,620	66%	75%	+$3,216	-$4,151	16.3%	$-4,053 (vs do-nothing $-4,424)
$355	13d	31 Jul 2026	$8.60	4/5	$7,938	$8,148	64%	74%	+$1,948	-$4,815	18.9%	$-4,808 (vs do-nothing $-5,179)
$352.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$7.70	2/5	$7,700	$8,330	63%	73%	+$2,193	-$3,087	12.1%	$-2,898 (vs do-nothing $-3,269)
$352.50	13d	31 Jul 2026	$9.50	4/5	$8,769	$8,979	61%	72%	+$1,954	-$5,455	21.4%	$-5,448 (vs do-nothing $-5,819)
$350	6d	24 Jul 2026	$8.70	2/5	$8,700	$9,330	59%	72%	+$2,237	-$3,387	13.3%	$-3,198 (vs do-nothing $-3,569)
$350	13d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	4/5	$9,785	$9,995	58%	71%	+$2,064	-$6,015	23.6%	$-6,008 (vs do-nothing $-6,379)
$350	20d	7 Aug 2026	$11.95	5/5	$8,962	$8,962	57%	69%	+$788	-$6,844	26.8%	$-6,927 (vs do-nothing $-7,299)

Show 12 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$347.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$9.80	2/5	$9,800	$10,430	55%	70%	+$2,270	-$3,667	14.4%	$-3,478 (vs do-nothing $-3,849)
$347.50	13d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	3/5	$8,065	$8,485	55%	69%	+$1,542	-$4,946	19.4%	$-4,848 (vs do-nothing $-5,219)
$345	20d	7 Aug 2026	$14.30	4/5	$8,580	$8,790	52%	67%	+$690	-$6,535	25.6%	$-6,528 (vs do-nothing $-6,899)
$345	27d	14 Aug 2026	$15.30	5/5	$8,500	$8,500	52%	68%	+$1,455	-$7,669	30.1%	$-7,752 (vs do-nothing $-8,124)
$345	13d	31 Jul 2026	$12.90	3/5	$8,931	$9,351	52%	68%	+$1,601	-$5,321	20.9%	$-5,223 (vs do-nothing $-5,594)
$345	6d	24 Jul 2026	$11.00	2/5	$11,000	$11,630	52%	68%	+$2,293	-$3,927	15.4%	$-3,738 (vs do-nothing $-4,109)
$342.50	13d	31 Jul 2026	$14.05	3/5	$9,727	$10,147	49%	67%	+$1,526	-$5,726	22.5%	$-5,628 (vs do-nothing $-5,999)
$342.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$11.85	2/5	$11,850	$12,480	48%	66%	+$1,853	-$4,257	16.7%	$-4,068 (vs do-nothing $-4,439)
$340	20d	7 Aug 2026	$16.70	3/5	$7,515	$7,935	47%	64%	+$449	-$5,681	22.3%	$-5,583 (vs do-nothing $-5,954)
$340	27d	14 Aug 2026	$17.25	4/5	$7,667	$7,877	47%	65%	+$884	-$7,355	28.8%	$-7,348 (vs do-nothing $-7,719)
$340	13d	31 Jul 2026	$15.35	3/5	$10,627	$11,047	46%	65%	+$1,487	-$6,086	23.9%	$-5,988 (vs do-nothing $-6,359)
$340	6d	24 Jul 2026	$13.50	2/5	$13,500	$14,130	44%	65%	+$2,100	-$4,427	17.4%	$-4,238 (vs do-nothing $-4,609)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-18 03:37