FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $346.12

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $367.78 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $346.12 UNDERWATER $51.88 (13.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 4 days. The recommended CC (5d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $367.78 (banked floor $360.49) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$15,600/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,259/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-8,325	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,800/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$15,600/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
3.1 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $367.78 (probe: $367.5C 12d) still earns $6,188/mo (40% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$5,336

was $8,325 · 36% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$367.78 → $360.49

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 29 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $414.18 (+20%) · daily UBB $369.25 · 1-wk expected move ±$23 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $367.78 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $370 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

85%

Touch odds

32%

Per cycle

$1,650

Income / mo

$9,900

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $12.36/sh now → $8.74 mid-life (likely $7.97–$13.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 448 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $375 (overshoots $4.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$370	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.67/sh	+$1,334 cycle +$2,984 [+$517…+$2,023] · 85% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$379	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.06/sh	+$1,030 cycle +$2,680 [-$92…+$1,775] · 73% credit	72% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$374	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.14/sh	+$572 cycle +$2,222 [-$341…+$1,162] · 65% credit	70% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$384	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.37/sh	+$183 cycle +$1,833 [-$1,054…+$853] · 45% credit	75% surv 67%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$389	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$2.54/sh	-$1,269 cycle +$381 [-$2,717…-$774] · 10% credit	79% surv 74%
budget: banked $1,650 debit $1,269 (77% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$381 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,817/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $395 14 Aug 2026 (26d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,160

Income / mo

$1,338

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $430 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $430)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$50

Income / mo

$300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$430	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.07/sh	+$537 cycle +$587	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$431	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.04/sh	+$20 cycle +$70	67% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$434	7 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.96/sh	+$478 cycle +$528	70% surv 56%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (29 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.780 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,448 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $623

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$372.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.73	5/5	$8,190	$8,190	87%	89%	+$5,178	-$0	0.0%	$1,488 (vs do-nothing +$865)
$370	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.30	4/5	$7,920	$8,170	85%	87%	+$4,867	-$0	0.0%	$1,543 (vs do-nothing +$920)
$367.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.75	4/5	$9,000	$9,250	82%	86%	+$5,162	-$0	0.0%	$1,610 (vs do-nothing +$987)
$365	5d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	3/5	$7,830	$8,330	79%	84%	+$4,240	-$0	0.0%	$794 (vs do-nothing +$170)
$362.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$5.00	3/5	$9,000	$9,500	76%	82%	+$4,560	-$85	0.3%	$239 (vs do-nothing $-385)
$357.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	2/5	$7,860	$8,610	69%	78%	+$3,446	-$746	2.9%	$-323 (vs do-nothing $-946)
$360	12d	31 Jul 2026	$7.40	5/5	$9,250	$9,250	69%	77%	+$3,057	-$191	0.7%	$-68 (vs do-nothing $-691)
$357.50	12d	31 Jul 2026	$7.75	5/5	$9,688	$9,688	66%	75%	+$2,559	-$1,266	5.0%	$-1,143 (vs do-nothing $-1,766)
$355	5d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	2/5	$8,880	$9,630	66%	76%	+$3,560	-$1,076	4.2%	$-653 (vs do-nothing $-1,276)
$355	12d	31 Jul 2026	$9.30	4/5	$9,300	$9,550	63%	74%	+$2,764	-$1,393	5.5%	$-1,170 (vs do-nothing $-1,793)
$355	19d	7 Aug 2026	$10.55	5/5	$8,329	$8,329	62%	73%	+$2,157	-$1,116	4.4%	$-993 (vs do-nothing $-1,616)
$352.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$8.20	2/5	$9,840	$10,590	62%	74%	+$3,482	-$1,416	5.6%	$-993 (vs do-nothing $-1,616)
$352.50	12d	31 Jul 2026	$9.85	4/5	$9,850	$10,100	60%	72%	+$2,392	-$2,173	8.5%	$-1,950 (vs do-nothing $-2,573)

Show 16 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$350	5d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	2/5	$11,220	$11,970	58%	72%	+$3,685	-$1,686	6.6%	$-1,263 (vs do-nothing $-1,886)
$350	12d	31 Jul 2026	$11.25	3/5	$8,438	$8,938	57%	71%	+$2,083	-$1,960	7.7%	$-1,636 (vs do-nothing $-2,260)
$350	19d	7 Aug 2026	$12.60	4/5	$7,958	$8,208	56%	70%	+$1,764	-$2,073	8.1%	$-1,850 (vs do-nothing $-2,473)
$350	26d	14 Aug 2026	$13.90	5/5	$8,019	$8,019	56%	70%	+$1,827	-$1,941	7.6%	$-1,818 (vs do-nothing $-2,441)
$347.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$10.60	2/5	$12,720	$13,470	54%	74%	+$5,573	-$1,936	7.6%	$-1,513 (vs do-nothing $-2,136)
$347.50	12d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	3/5	$8,738	$9,238	54%	69%	+$1,550	-$2,590	10.2%	$-2,266 (vs do-nothing $-2,890)
$345	26d	14 Aug 2026	$16.10	5/5	$9,288	$9,288	51%	68%	+$1,750	-$3,341	13.1%	$-3,218 (vs do-nothing $-3,841)
$345	19d	7 Aug 2026	$15.05	4/5	$9,505	$9,755	51%	68%	+$1,840	-$3,093	12.1%	$-2,870 (vs do-nothing $-3,493)
$345	12d	31 Jul 2026	$13.60	3/5	$10,200	$10,700	50%	68%	+$2,107	-$2,755	10.8%	$-2,431 (vs do-nothing $-3,055)
$345	5d	24 Jul 2026	$11.40	2/5	$13,680	$14,430	49%	72%	+$5,071	-$2,276	8.9%	$-1,853 (vs do-nothing $-2,476)
$342.50	12d	31 Jul 2026	$14.75	3/5	$11,062	$11,562	47%	67%	+$1,989	-$3,160	12.4%	$-2,836 (vs do-nothing $-3,460)
$340	26d	14 Aug 2026	$18.85	4/5	$8,700	$8,950	45%	66%	+$1,441	-$3,573	14.0%	$-3,350 (vs do-nothing $-3,973)
$340	19d	7 Aug 2026	$17.65	3/5	$8,361	$8,861	45%	65%	+$1,344	-$3,040	11.9%	$-2,716 (vs do-nothing $-3,340)
$342.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$12.85	2/5	$15,420	$16,170	44%	70%	+$5,168	-$2,486	9.8%	$-2,063 (vs do-nothing $-2,686)
$340	12d	31 Jul 2026	$16.30	2/5	$8,150	$8,900	44%	65%	+$1,397	-$2,296	9.0%	$-1,873 (vs do-nothing $-2,496)
$340	5d	24 Jul 2026	$14.50	1/5	$8,700	$9,700	39%	68%	+$2,663	-$1,328	5.2%	$-805 (vs do-nothing $-1,428)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-19 19:27