FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $353.81

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.19 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $353.81 UNDERWATER $44.19 (11.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 4 days. The recommended CC (5d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.19 (banked floor $367.97) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$5,938/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,259/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-8,325	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,969/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$5,938/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
8.1 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $375.19 (probe: $375C 12d) still earns $4,688/mo (79% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$5,336

was $8,325 · 36% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$375.19 → $367.97

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 52 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $414.18 (+17%) · daily UBB $369.34 · 1-wk expected move ±$28 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $375.19 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $380 14 Aug 2026 (26d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$2,300

Income / mo

$2,654

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

84%

Touch odds

33%

Per cycle

$1,025

Income / mo

$6,150

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.96/sh now → $6.33 mid-life (likely $6.36–$10.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 713 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $384 (overshoots $6.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$389	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.62/sh	+$808 cycle +$1,833 [-$443…+$986] · 60% credit	66% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$394	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.19/sh	+$96 cycle +$1,121 [-$1,283…+$215] · 32% credit	69% surv 64%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$394	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$1.11/sh	-$555 cycle +$470 [-$1,602…-$341] · 16% credit	75% surv 70%
budget: banked $1,025 debit $555 (54% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$470 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,897/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	10d left	-$2.07/sh	-$1,037 cycle -$12 [-$2,285…-$864] · 5% credit	57% surv 52%

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $385 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$605

Income / mo

$3,630

Buyback gross: $9.13/sh now → $6.46 mid-life (likely $5.93–$10.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 386 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $392 (overshoots $6.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$396	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.53/sh	+$765 cycle +$1,370 [-$346…+$1,233] · 69% credit	66% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$0.08/sh	-$38 cycle +$567 [-$735…+$526] · 47% credit	72% surv 65%
budget: banked $605 debit $38 (6% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$567 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,985/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Max even-money escape in the band	~$401	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.10/sh	+$51 cycle +$656 [-$1,199…+$469] · 41% credit	68% surv 64%
reaches SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	31 Jul 2026	10d left	-$2.20/sh	-$1,098 cycle -$493 [-$2,210…-$644] · 6% credit	57% surv 51%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (31 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$9,619 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,794

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.21	5/5	$3,630	$3,630	90%	91%	+$1,587	-$0	0.0%	$1,899 (vs do-nothing +$105)
$382.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.47	4/5	$3,528	$3,778	88%	89%	+$1,439	-$0	0.0%	$1,982 (vs do-nothing +$188)
$380	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.72	3/5	$3,096	$3,596	86%	88%	+$1,110	-$0	0.0%	$2,010 (vs do-nothing +$216)
$377.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.05	3/5	$3,690	$4,190	84%	86%	+$1,192	-$0	0.0%	$2,109 (vs do-nothing +$315)
$375	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.21	3/5	$3,978	$4,478	81%	84%	+$862	-$0	0.0%	$2,101 (vs do-nothing +$307)
$380	12d	31 Jul 2026	$2.75	5/5	$3,438	$3,438	80%	83%	+$309	-$0	0.0%	$2,669 (vs do-nothing +$875)
$372.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.73	2/5	$3,276	$4,026	79%	82%	+$705	-$0	0.0%	$1,603 (vs do-nothing $-191)
$375	12d	31 Jul 2026	$3.75	4/5	$3,750	$4,000	76%	79%	+$350	-$0	0.0%	$2,820 (vs do-nothing +$1,025)
$370	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.30	2/5	$3,960	$4,710	76%	80%	+$806	-$377	1.5%	$1,217 (vs do-nothing $-577)
$375	19d	7 Aug 2026	$4.40	5/5	$3,474	$3,474	74%	78%	$-44	-$0	0.0%	$3,401 (vs do-nothing +$1,607)
$372.50	12d	31 Jul 2026	$3.75	4/5	$3,750	$4,000	74%	78%	$-190	-$0	0.0%	$1,820 (vs do-nothing +$25)
$367.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.75	2/5	$4,500	$5,250	72%	77%	+$659	-$787	3.1%	$807 (vs do-nothing $-987)
$370	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.75	3/5	$3,562	$4,062	71%	76%	+$150	-$131	0.5%	$1,363 (vs do-nothing $-431)

Show 18 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$370	19d	7 Aug 2026	$5.90	4/5	$3,726	$3,976	69%	75%	+$113	-$0	0.0%	$1,680 (vs do-nothing $-115)
$365	5d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	2/5	$5,220	$5,970	69%	75%	+$579	-$1,167	4.6%	$427 (vs do-nothing $-1,367)
$375	26d	14 Aug 2026	$5.65	5/5	$3,260	$3,260	67%	71%	$-2,728	-$0	0.0%	$4,026 (vs do-nothing +$2,232)
$362.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$5.00	1/5	$3,000	$4,000	65%	72%	+$218	-$769	3.0%	$926 (vs do-nothing $-869)
$370	26d	14 Aug 2026	$6.85	4/5	$3,162	$3,412	64%	69%	$-2,377	-$0	0.0%	$2,060 (vs do-nothing +$265)
$365	19d	7 Aug 2026	$7.10	3/5	$3,363	$3,863	64%	72%	$-76	-$926	3.6%	$568 (vs do-nothing $-1,226)
$365	26d	14 Aug 2026	$8.30	4/5	$3,831	$4,081	61%	67%	$-2,542	-$755	3.0%	$640 (vs do-nothing $-1,155)
$360	19d	7 Aug 2026	$8.60	3/5	$4,074	$4,574	59%	68%	$-239	-$1,976	7.7%	$-482 (vs do-nothing $-2,276)
$360	26d	14 Aug 2026	$9.95	3/5	$3,444	$3,944	58%	64%	$-2,030	-$1,571	6.2%	$-77 (vs do-nothing $-1,871)
$357.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	1/5	$3,930	$4,930	57%	68%	+$25	-$1,114	4.4%	$581 (vs do-nothing $-1,214)
$355	26d	14 Aug 2026	$11.65	3/5	$4,033	$4,533	53%	65%	$-198	-$2,561	10.0%	$-1,067 (vs do-nothing $-2,861)
$355	19d	7 Aug 2026	$10.55	2/5	$3,332	$4,082	53%	65%	$-228	-$1,927	7.6%	$-333 (vs do-nothing $-2,127)
$355	5d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	1/5	$4,440	$5,440	53%	65%	$-132	-$1,279	5.0%	$416 (vs do-nothing $-1,379)
$352.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$8.20	1/5	$4,920	$5,920	49%	63%	$-392	-$1,449	5.7%	$246 (vs do-nothing $-1,549)
$350	26d	14 Aug 2026	$13.90	2/5	$3,208	$3,958	48%	63%	$-188	-$2,257	8.9%	$-663 (vs do-nothing $-2,457)
$350	19d	7 Aug 2026	$12.60	2/5	$3,979	$4,729	48%	62%	$-371	-$2,517	9.9%	$-923 (vs do-nothing $-2,717)
$350	5d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	1/5	$5,610	$6,610	45%	61%	$-514	-$1,584	6.2%	$111 (vs do-nothing $-1,684)
$347.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$10.60	1/5	$6,360	$7,360	41%	59%	$-648	-$1,709	6.7%	$-14 (vs do-nothing $-1,809)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-19 21:24