FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $353.47

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $381.80 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $353.47 UNDERWATER $44.53 (11.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $381.80 (banked floor $374.82) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$10,659/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,180/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,415	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,329/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$10,659/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
4.5 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $381.80 (probe: $380C 17d) still earns $3,662/mo (34% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,426

was $11,415 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$381.80 → $374.82

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 50 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.69 (+17%) · daily UBB $369.35 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $381.80 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $385 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

81%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$2,150

Income / mo

$2,688

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $382.50 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $382.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$730

Income / mo

$7,300

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.31/sh now → $7.29 mid-life (likely $6.94–$12.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 352 simulated challenges: the $382 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $390 (overshoots $7.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$382	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.09/sh	+$1,545 cycle +$2,275 [+$1,559…+$2,353] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$394	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.79/sh	+$895 cycle +$1,625 [-$47…+$1,389] · 74% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$389	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.23/sh	+$117 cycle +$847 [-$423…+$591] · 61% credit	73% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$399	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.16/sh	+$79 cycle +$809 [-$1,036…+$528] · 46% credit	76% surv 69%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$404	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.40/sh	-$702 cycle +$28 [-$2,031…-$283] · 15% credit	79% surv 74%
budget: banked $730 debit $702 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,014/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $440 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $440)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income / mo

$50

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$440	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.65/sh	+$826 cycle +$831	68% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$442	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.99/sh	+$494 cycle +$499	69% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$452	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$13 cycle +$18	73% surv 65%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.804 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,387 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $462

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.23	5/5	$6,150	$6,150	92%	93%	+$3,912	-$0	0.0%	$587 (vs do-nothing +$125)
$382.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.46	4/5	$5,840	$6,134	90%	91%	+$3,479	-$0	0.0%	$654 (vs do-nothing +$192)
$380	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.83	3/5	$5,490	$6,078	88%	90%	+$3,172	-$0	0.0%	$178 (vs do-nothing $-284)
$377.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.17	3/5	$6,510	$7,098	86%	88%	+$3,502	-$638	2.5%	$-470 (vs do-nothing $-932)
$375	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.55	3/5	$7,650	$8,238	84%	86%	+$3,782	-$1,274	5.0%	$-1,106 (vs do-nothing $-1,568)
$372.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.05	2/5	$6,100	$6,982	81%	84%	+$2,815	-$1,249	4.9%	$-983 (vs do-nothing $-1,445)
$370	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.60	2/5	$7,200	$8,082	78%	82%	+$3,057	-$1,639	6.4%	$-1,373 (vs do-nothing $-1,835)
$375	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	5/5	$6,075	$6,075	77%	81%	+$1,743	-$1,373	5.4%	$-1,401 (vs do-nothing $-1,863)
$372.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/5	$6,375	$6,375	75%	80%	+$1,290	-$2,523	9.9%	$-2,551 (vs do-nothing $-3,013)
$367.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	2/5	$8,400	$9,282	74%	80%	+$3,227	-$2,019	7.9%	$-1,753 (vs do-nothing $-2,215)
$370	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.30	4/5	$6,360	$6,654	72%	78%	+$1,607	-$2,598	10.2%	$-2,528 (vs do-nothing $-2,990)
$367.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	4/5	$6,840	$7,134	72%	79%	+$2,510	-$3,438	13.5%	$-3,368 (vs do-nothing $-3,830)
$365	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.90	2/5	$9,800	$10,682	71%	78%	+$3,406	-$2,379	9.3%	$-2,113 (vs do-nothing $-2,575)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$370	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	5/5	$5,779	$5,779	70%	76%	+$1,156	-$2,623	10.3%	$-2,651 (vs do-nothing $-3,113)
$365	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	3/5	$6,030	$6,618	68%	77%	+$2,168	-$3,029	11.9%	$-2,861 (vs do-nothing $-3,323)
$367.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.10	5/5	$6,265	$6,265	68%	75%	+$1,017	-$3,598	14.1%	$-3,626 (vs do-nothing $-4,088)
$362.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.60	1/5	$5,600	$6,776	67%	75%	+$1,688	-$1,370	5.4%	$-1,006 (vs do-nothing $-1,468)
$365	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.15	4/5	$5,753	$6,047	65%	73%	+$1,003	-$3,458	13.6%	$-3,388 (vs do-nothing $-3,850)
$362.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	3/5	$6,795	$7,383	65%	75%	+$2,233	-$3,524	13.8%	$-3,356 (vs do-nothing $-3,818)
$365	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.60	5/5	$6,000	$6,000	64%	73%	+$1,116	-$3,598	14.1%	$-3,626 (vs do-nothing $-4,088)
$362.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.80	4/5	$6,212	$6,506	62%	72%	+$856	-$4,198	16.5%	$-4,128 (vs do-nothing $-4,590)
$360	10d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	3/5	$7,560	$8,148	61%	73%	+$2,207	-$4,019	15.8%	$-3,851 (vs do-nothing $-4,313)
$360	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.05	4/5	$7,094	$7,388	59%	71%	+$1,077	-$4,698	18.4%	$-4,628 (vs do-nothing $-5,090)
$360	24d	14 Aug 2026	$11.45	4/5	$5,725	$6,019	59%	70%	+$887	-$4,138	16.2%	$-4,068 (vs do-nothing $-4,530)
$357.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	1/5	$7,400	$8,576	58%	71%	+$1,710	-$1,690	6.6%	$-1,326 (vs do-nothing $-1,788)
$357.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$9.40	2/5	$5,640	$6,522	58%	71%	+$1,481	-$2,979	11.7%	$-2,713 (vs do-nothing $-3,175)
$357.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.80	3/5	$5,718	$6,306	57%	69%	+$664	-$4,049	15.9%	$-3,881 (vs do-nothing $-4,343)
$355	3d	24 Jul 2026	$8.45	1/5	$8,450	$9,626	54%	69%	+$1,686	-$1,835	7.2%	$-1,471 (vs do-nothing $-1,933)
$355	10d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	2/5	$6,360	$7,242	54%	70%	+$1,544	-$3,239	12.7%	$-2,973 (vs do-nothing $-3,435)
$355	24d	14 Aug 2026	$13.60	4/5	$6,800	$7,094	54%	68%	+$879	-$5,278	20.7%	$-5,208 (vs do-nothing $-5,670)
$355	17d	7 Aug 2026	$12.00	3/5	$6,353	$6,941	54%	68%	+$714	-$4,439	17.4%	$-4,271 (vs do-nothing $-4,733)
$352.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$13.05	3/5	$6,909	$7,497	51%	66%	+$638	-$4,874	19.1%	$-4,706 (vs do-nothing $-5,168)
$352.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	2/5	$6,990	$7,872	50%	68%	+$1,451	-$3,529	13.8%	$-3,263 (vs do-nothing $-3,725)
$352.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$9.60	1/5	$9,600	$10,776	49%	67%	+$1,632	-$1,970	7.7%	$-1,606 (vs do-nothing $-2,068)
$350	24d	14 Aug 2026	$15.80	3/5	$5,925	$6,513	48%	65%	+$554	-$4,799	18.8%	$-4,631 (vs do-nothing $-5,093)
$350	17d	7 Aug 2026	$14.55	3/5	$7,703	$8,291	48%	65%	+$753	-$5,174	20.3%	$-5,006 (vs do-nothing $-5,468)
$350	10d	31 Jul 2026	$12.55	2/5	$7,530	$8,412	46%	66%	+$1,199	-$3,849	15.1%	$-3,583 (vs do-nothing $-4,045)
$350	3d	24 Jul 2026	$10.80	1/5	$10,800	$11,976	45%	64%	+$1,498	-$2,100	8.2%	$-1,736 (vs do-nothing $-2,198)
$347.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$15.65	2/5	$5,524	$6,406	45%	64%	+$406	-$3,729	14.6%	$-3,463 (vs do-nothing $-3,925)
$347.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$14.00	2/5	$8,400	$9,282	42%	64%	+$1,208	-$4,059	15.9%	$-3,793 (vs do-nothing $-4,255)
$347.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$12.05	1/5	$12,050	$13,226	40%	62%	+$1,282	-$2,225	8.7%	$-1,861 (vs do-nothing $-2,323)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 10:56