FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $353.66

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $381.97 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $353.66 UNDERWATER $44.34 (11.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (10d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $381.97 (banked floor $375.00) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$10,491/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,180/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,415	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,246/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$10,491/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
4.6 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $381.97 (probe: $380C 17d) still earns $3,662/mo (35% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,426

was $11,415 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$381.97 → $375.00

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 51 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.69 (+17%) · daily UBB $369.36 · 1-wk expected move ±$24 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $381.97 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $385 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

86%

Touch odds

30%

Per cycle

$1,180

Income / mo

$3,540

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $12.87/sh now → $9.10 mid-life (likely $8.14–$13.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 661 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $391 (overshoots $5.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.57/sh	+$787 cycle +$1,967 [+$234…+$1,334] · 83% credit	64% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$386	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.01/sh	+$507 cycle +$1,687 [-$83…+$1,035] · 69% credit	65% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$391	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.72/sh	+$361 cycle +$1,541 [-$287…+$1,062] · 62% credit	70% surv 59%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$1.09/sh	-$545 cycle +$635 [-$1,333…+$64] · 28% credit	73% surv 65%
budget: banked $1,180 debit $545 (46% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$635 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,323/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $400 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $400)

89%

Touch odds

23%

Per cycle

$1,025

Income / mo

$1,281

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $425 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $425)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$15

Income / mo

$150

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$425	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.54/sh	+$1,272 cycle +$1,287	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$429	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.78/sh	+$390 cycle +$405	69% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$436	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.84/sh	+$421 cycle +$436	73% surv 64%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (30 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.804 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,380 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $455

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$375	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	5/5	$6,075	$6,075	77%	81%	+$1,682	-$1,460	5.7%	$-1,494 (vs do-nothing $-1,950)
$372.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/5	$6,375	$6,375	75%	79%	+$1,222	-$2,610	10.2%	$-2,644 (vs do-nothing $-3,100)
$370	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.30	4/5	$6,360	$6,654	72%	78%	+$1,545	-$2,668	10.5%	$-2,604 (vs do-nothing $-3,060)
$362.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.60	1/5	$5,600	$6,776	72%	82%	+$3,445	-$1,387	5.4%	$-1,030 (vs do-nothing $-1,485)
$367.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	4/5	$6,840	$7,134	69%	76%	+$1,243	-$3,508	13.8%	$-3,444 (vs do-nothing $-3,900)
$370	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	5/5	$5,779	$5,779	68%	74%	$-27	-$2,710	10.6%	$-2,744 (vs do-nothing $-3,200)
$365	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	3/5	$6,030	$6,618	66%	74%	+$1,173	-$3,081	12.1%	$-2,919 (vs do-nothing $-3,375)
$367.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.10	5/5	$6,265	$6,265	66%	73%	$-220	-$3,685	14.4%	$-3,719 (vs do-nothing $-4,175)
$365	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.60	5/5	$6,000	$6,000	64%	73%	+$1,071	-$3,685	14.4%	$-3,719 (vs do-nothing $-4,175)
$365	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.15	4/5	$5,753	$6,047	64%	71%	$-24	-$3,528	13.8%	$-3,464 (vs do-nothing $-3,920)
$362.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	3/5	$6,795	$7,383	63%	73%	+$1,202	-$3,576	14.0%	$-3,414 (vs do-nothing $-3,870)
$362.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.80	4/5	$6,212	$6,506	61%	70%	$-204	-$4,268	16.7%	$-4,204 (vs do-nothing $-4,660)
$357.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	1/5	$7,400	$8,576	60%	77%	+$3,667	-$1,707	6.7%	$-1,350 (vs do-nothing $-1,805)

Show 17 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$360	10d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	3/5	$7,560	$8,148	60%	71%	+$1,149	-$4,071	16.0%	$-3,909 (vs do-nothing $-4,365)
$360	24d	14 Aug 2026	$11.45	4/5	$5,725	$6,019	59%	70%	+$846	-$4,208	16.5%	$-4,144 (vs do-nothing $-4,600)
$360	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.05	3/5	$5,321	$5,909	59%	69%	$-8	-$3,576	14.0%	$-3,414 (vs do-nothing $-3,870)
$357.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$9.40	2/5	$5,640	$6,522	57%	69%	+$764	-$3,014	11.8%	$-2,755 (vs do-nothing $-3,210)
$357.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.80	3/5	$5,718	$6,306	56%	67%	$-166	-$4,101	16.1%	$-3,939 (vs do-nothing $-4,395)
$355	3d	24 Jul 2026	$8.45	1/5	$8,450	$9,626	54%	74%	+$3,674	-$1,852	7.3%	$-1,495 (vs do-nothing $-1,950)
$355	17d	7 Aug 2026	$12.00	3/5	$6,353	$6,941	54%	66%	$-127	-$4,491	17.6%	$-4,329 (vs do-nothing $-4,785)
$355	24d	14 Aug 2026	$13.60	4/5	$6,800	$7,094	54%	68%	+$832	-$5,348	21.0%	$-5,284 (vs do-nothing $-5,740)
$355	10d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	2/5	$6,360	$7,242	53%	68%	+$817	-$3,274	12.8%	$-3,015 (vs do-nothing $-3,470)
$352.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$13.05	3/5	$6,909	$7,497	51%	65%	$-207	-$4,926	19.3%	$-4,764 (vs do-nothing $-5,220)
$352.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	2/5	$6,990	$7,872	50%	66%	+$720	-$3,564	14.0%	$-3,305 (vs do-nothing $-3,760)
$350	17d	7 Aug 2026	$14.55	3/5	$7,703	$8,291	48%	64%	$-90	-$5,226	20.5%	$-5,064 (vs do-nothing $-5,520)
$352.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$9.60	1/5	$9,600	$10,776	48%	71%	+$3,599	-$1,987	7.8%	$-1,630 (vs do-nothing $-2,085)
$350	10d	31 Jul 2026	$12.55	2/5	$7,530	$8,412	47%	64%	+$472	-$3,884	15.2%	$-3,625 (vs do-nothing $-4,080)
$347.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$15.65	2/5	$5,524	$6,406	45%	63%	+$365	-$3,764	14.8%	$-3,505 (vs do-nothing $-3,960)
$350	3d	24 Jul 2026	$10.80	1/5	$10,800	$11,976	42%	68%	+$3,391	-$2,117	8.3%	$-1,760 (vs do-nothing $-2,215)
$347.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$12.05	1/5	$12,050	$13,226	36%	66%	+$3,054	-$2,242	8.8%	$-1,885 (vs do-nothing $-2,340)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 11:04