FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $354.32

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $382.57 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $354.32 UNDERWATER $43.68 (11.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $382.57 (banked floor $375.61) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$10,588/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,180/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,415	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,294/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$10,588/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
4.5 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $382.57 (probe: $385C 17d) still earns $2,647/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,426

was $11,415 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$382.57 → $375.61

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 56 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 53 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.69 (+17%) · daily UBB $369.39 · 1-wk expected move ±$34 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $382.57 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $390 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

74%

Touch odds

56%

Per cycle

$1,725

Income / mo

$2,156

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $425 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $425)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$220

Income / mo

$388

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$425	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.70/sh	+$348 cycle +$568 [+$26…+$1,147] · 77% credit	61% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$426	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.41/sh	+$206 cycle +$426 [-$143…+$1,007] · 66% credit	61% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$426	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.41/sh	+$206 cycle +$426 [-$143…+$1,007] · 66% credit	61% surv 53%

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $385 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

91%

Touch odds

18%

Per cycle

$615

Income / mo

$6,150

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.93/sh now → $7.02 mid-life (likely $6.83–$12.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 329 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $393 (overshoots $7.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.34/sh	+$1,668 cycle +$2,283 [+$599…+$2,021] · 83% credit	63% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$396	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.56/sh	+$1,279 cycle +$1,894 [-$417…+$1,587] · 70% credit	66% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$401	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.90/sh	+$452 cycle +$1,067 [-$1,397…+$727] · 47% credit	67% surv 63%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$393	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.05/sh	+$27 cycle +$642 [-$1,421…+$258] · 38% credit	67% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$406	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.70/sh	-$349 cycle +$266 [-$2,354…-$123] · 22% credit	69% surv 66%
budget: banked $615 debit $349 (57% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$266 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,312/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.804 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,357 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $432

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.23	5/5	$6,150	$6,150	91%	92%	+$3,659	-$0	0.0%	$557 (vs do-nothing +$125)
$382.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.46	4/5	$5,840	$6,134	90%	91%	+$3,223	-$0	0.0%	$596 (vs do-nothing +$163)
$380	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.83	3/5	$5,490	$6,078	88%	89%	+$2,931	-$223	0.9%	$-84 (vs do-nothing $-517)
$377.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.17	3/5	$6,510	$7,098	85%	87%	+$3,204	-$871	3.4%	$-732 (vs do-nothing $-1,165)
$375	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.55	3/5	$7,650	$8,238	83%	85%	+$3,416	-$1,507	5.9%	$-1,368 (vs do-nothing $-1,801)
$372.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.05	2/5	$6,100	$6,982	80%	83%	+$2,520	-$1,404	5.5%	$-1,168 (vs do-nothing $-1,600)
$370	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.60	2/5	$7,200	$8,082	77%	81%	+$2,703	-$1,794	7.0%	$-1,558 (vs do-nothing $-1,990)
$367.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	2/5	$8,400	$9,282	73%	79%	+$2,807	-$2,174	8.5%	$-1,938 (vs do-nothing $-2,370)
$375	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	5/5	$6,075	$6,075	71%	74%	$-3,081	-$1,761	6.9%	$-1,819 (vs do-nothing $-2,251)
$365	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.90	2/5	$9,800	$10,682	69%	77%	+$2,914	-$2,534	9.9%	$-2,298 (vs do-nothing $-2,730)
$372.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/5	$6,375	$6,375	69%	73%	$-3,811	-$2,911	11.4%	$-2,969 (vs do-nothing $-3,401)
$370	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.30	4/5	$6,360	$6,654	67%	71%	$-2,683	-$2,909	11.4%	$-2,868 (vs do-nothing $-3,301)
$362.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.60	1/5	$5,600	$6,776	65%	74%	+$1,403	-$1,447	5.7%	$-1,113 (vs do-nothing $-1,545)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$367.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	4/5	$6,840	$7,134	65%	70%	$-3,171	-$3,749	14.7%	$-3,708 (vs do-nothing $-4,141)
$370	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	5/5	$5,779	$5,779	64%	69%	$-4,343	-$3,011	11.8%	$-3,069 (vs do-nothing $-3,501)
$367.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.10	5/5	$6,265	$6,265	63%	68%	$-4,635	-$3,986	15.6%	$-4,044 (vs do-nothing $-4,476)
$365	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	3/5	$6,030	$6,618	62%	69%	$-2,262	-$3,262	12.8%	$-3,123 (vs do-nothing $-3,556)
$365	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.15	4/5	$5,753	$6,047	61%	67%	$-3,624	-$3,769	14.8%	$-3,728 (vs do-nothing $-4,161)
$362.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	3/5	$6,795	$7,383	60%	67%	$-2,340	-$3,757	14.7%	$-3,618 (vs do-nothing $-4,051)
$365	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.60	5/5	$6,000	$6,000	60%	66%	$-4,382	-$3,986	15.6%	$-4,044 (vs do-nothing $-4,476)
$362.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.80	4/5	$6,212	$6,506	59%	65%	$-3,859	-$4,509	17.7%	$-4,468 (vs do-nothing $-4,901)
$360	10d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	3/5	$7,560	$8,148	58%	66%	$-2,480	-$4,252	16.7%	$-4,113 (vs do-nothing $-4,546)
$360	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.05	3/5	$5,321	$5,909	57%	65%	$-2,781	-$3,757	14.7%	$-3,618 (vs do-nothing $-4,051)
$360	24d	14 Aug 2026	$11.45	4/5	$5,725	$6,019	57%	64%	$-3,606	-$4,449	17.4%	$-4,408 (vs do-nothing $-4,841)
$357.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	1/5	$7,400	$8,576	57%	69%	+$1,341	-$1,767	6.9%	$-1,433 (vs do-nothing $-1,865)
$357.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$9.40	2/5	$5,640	$6,522	55%	65%	$-1,698	-$3,134	12.3%	$-2,898 (vs do-nothing $-3,330)
$357.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.80	3/5	$5,718	$6,306	55%	63%	$-2,961	-$4,282	16.8%	$-4,143 (vs do-nothing $-4,576)
$355	24d	14 Aug 2026	$13.60	4/5	$6,800	$7,094	54%	62%	$-3,647	-$5,589	21.9%	$-5,548 (vs do-nothing $-5,981)
$355	17d	7 Aug 2026	$12.00	3/5	$6,353	$6,941	53%	63%	$-2,931	-$4,672	18.3%	$-4,533 (vs do-nothing $-4,966)
$355	10d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	2/5	$6,360	$7,242	53%	63%	$-1,666	-$3,394	13.3%	$-3,158 (vs do-nothing $-3,590)
$355	3d	24 Jul 2026	$8.45	1/5	$8,450	$9,626	52%	67%	+$1,272	-$1,912	7.5%	$-1,578 (vs do-nothing $-2,010)
$352.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$13.05	3/5	$6,909	$7,497	52%	62%	$-3,011	-$5,107	20.0%	$-4,968 (vs do-nothing $-5,401)
$350	24d	14 Aug 2026	$15.80	3/5	$5,925	$6,513	51%	61%	$-2,818	-$5,032	19.7%	$-4,893 (vs do-nothing $-5,326)
$352.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	2/5	$6,990	$7,872	50%	62%	$-1,767	-$3,684	14.4%	$-3,448 (vs do-nothing $-3,880)
$350	17d	7 Aug 2026	$14.55	3/5	$7,703	$8,291	50%	61%	$-2,881	-$5,407	21.2%	$-5,268 (vs do-nothing $-5,701)
$350	10d	31 Jul 2026	$12.55	2/5	$7,530	$8,412	48%	61%	$-2,001	-$4,004	15.7%	$-3,768 (vs do-nothing $-4,200)
$352.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$9.60	1/5	$9,600	$10,776	48%	65%	+$1,173	-$2,047	8.0%	$-1,713 (vs do-nothing $-2,145)
$347.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$15.65	2/5	$5,524	$6,406	48%	60%	$-1,996	-$3,884	15.2%	$-3,648 (vs do-nothing $-4,080)
$347.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$14.00	2/5	$8,400	$9,282	45%	60%	$-1,950	-$4,214	16.5%	$-3,978 (vs do-nothing $-4,410)
$350	3d	24 Jul 2026	$10.80	1/5	$10,800	$11,976	43%	63%	+$994	-$2,177	8.5%	$-1,843 (vs do-nothing $-2,275)
$347.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$12.05	1/5	$12,050	$13,226	39%	61%	+$734	-$2,302	9.0%	$-1,968 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 11:59