FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $349.28

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.99 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $349.28 UNDERWATER $48.72 (12.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.99 (banked floor $368.90) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,559/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,211/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-10,575	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,779/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,559/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
4.2 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $375.99 (probe: $375C 17d) still earns $3,838/mo (33% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$7,586

was $10,575 · 28% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$375.99 → $368.90

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 37 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.55 (+18%) · daily UBB $369.17 · 1-wk expected move ±$25 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $375.99 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $380 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

80%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$2,250

Income / mo

$2,812

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $395 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$790

Income / mo

$1,394

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$391	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$2.25/sh	+$1,127 cycle +$1,917 [+$1,009…+$2,282] · 100% credit	63% surv 46%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$395	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.11/sh	+$57 cycle +$847 [-$217…+$1,040] · 64% credit	66% surv 52%

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

96%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$825

Income / mo

$8,250

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.77/sh now → $7.61 mid-life (likely $7.26–$13.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 450 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $386 (overshoots $8.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.29/sh	+$1,647 cycle +$2,472 [+$1,205…+$2,283] · 98% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$388	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.45/sh	+$724 cycle +$1,549 [-$460…+$1,258] · 66% credit	72% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$383	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.62/sh	+$312 cycle +$1,137 [-$516…+$791] · 60% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$393	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$26 cycle +$851 [-$1,371…+$502] · 43% credit	75% surv 69%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$398	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.23/sh	-$617 cycle +$208 [-$2,183…-$194] · 16% credit	78% surv 73%
budget: banked $825 debit $617 (75% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$208 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,350/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.797 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,645 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $445

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$380	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.35	5/5	$6,750	$6,750	97%	97%	+$6,348	-$0	0.0%	$745 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$377.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.65	4/5	$6,600	$6,825	96%	96%	+$6,092	-$0	0.0%	$805 (vs do-nothing +$360)
$375	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.01	3/5	$6,030	$6,480	94%	95%	+$5,441	-$0	0.0%	$525 (vs do-nothing +$80)
$372.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.38	3/5	$7,140	$7,590	92%	94%	+$6,247	-$334	1.3%	$-114 (vs do-nothing $-559)
$367.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.30	2/5	$6,600	$7,275	87%	91%	+$5,313	-$1,038	4.1%	$-744 (vs do-nothing $-1,188)
$365	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.00	2/5	$8,000	$8,675	84%	89%	+$6,164	-$1,398	5.5%	$-1,104 (vs do-nothing $-1,548)
$370	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.87	3/5	$8,610	$9,060	81%	84%	+$3,304	-$937	3.7%	$-717 (vs do-nothing $-1,162)
$362.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.45	2/5	$8,900	$9,575	80%	87%	+$6,334	-$1,808	7.1%	$-1,514 (vs do-nothing $-1,958)
$370	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/5	$6,375	$6,375	76%	81%	+$1,647	-$871	3.4%	$-801 (vs do-nothing $-1,246)
$367.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.75	5/5	$7,125	$7,125	74%	79%	+$1,602	-$1,871	7.3%	$-1,801 (vs do-nothing $-2,246)
$365	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.50	4/5	$6,600	$6,825	71%	77%	+$1,461	-$2,197	8.6%	$-2,052 (vs do-nothing $-2,497)
$365	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.80	5/5	$6,000	$6,000	69%	76%	+$1,105	-$2,096	8.2%	$-2,026 (vs do-nothing $-2,471)
$362.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/5	$7,200	$7,425	68%	75%	+$1,251	-$2,997	11.8%	$-2,852 (vs do-nothing $-3,297)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.60	5/5	$6,706	$6,706	67%	75%	+$1,163	-$2,946	11.6%	$-2,876 (vs do-nothing $-3,321)
$360	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.85	3/5	$6,165	$6,615	66%	74%	+$1,022	-$2,743	10.8%	$-2,523 (vs do-nothing $-2,968)
$357.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$6.00	1/5	$6,000	$6,900	65%	74%	+$1,283	-$1,249	4.9%	$-879 (vs do-nothing $-1,324)
$360	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.35	4/5	$5,894	$6,119	64%	73%	+$890	-$3,057	12.0%	$-2,912 (vs do-nothing $-3,357)
$360	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.55	5/5	$5,969	$5,969	63%	73%	+$910	-$3,221	12.6%	$-3,151 (vs do-nothing $-3,596)
$357.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.95	3/5	$7,155	$7,605	62%	72%	+$1,253	-$3,163	12.4%	$-2,943 (vs do-nothing $-3,388)
$357.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$9.35	4/5	$6,600	$6,825	61%	71%	+$972	-$3,657	14.3%	$-3,512 (vs do-nothing $-3,957)
$355	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	1/5	$7,200	$8,100	61%	72%	+$1,596	-$1,379	5.4%	$-1,009 (vs do-nothing $-1,454)
$355	10d	31 Jul 2026	$9.00	3/5	$8,100	$8,550	59%	70%	+$1,358	-$3,598	14.1%	$-3,378 (vs do-nothing $-3,823)
$355	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.25	4/5	$7,235	$7,460	59%	70%	+$927	-$4,297	16.9%	$-4,152 (vs do-nothing $-4,597)
$355	24d	14 Aug 2026	$12.00	4/5	$6,000	$6,225	58%	70%	+$1,008	-$3,597	14.1%	$-3,452 (vs do-nothing $-3,897)
$352.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.85	1/5	$7,850	$8,750	57%	69%	+$1,246	-$1,564	6.1%	$-1,194 (vs do-nothing $-1,639)
$352.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$10.30	2/5	$6,180	$6,855	56%	69%	+$1,069	-$2,638	10.3%	$-2,344 (vs do-nothing $-2,788)
$352.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$11.30	3/5	$5,982	$6,432	56%	69%	+$697	-$3,658	14.3%	$-3,438 (vs do-nothing $-3,883)
$350	24d	14 Aug 2026	$13.70	4/5	$6,850	$7,075	53%	67%	+$759	-$4,917	19.3%	$-4,772 (vs do-nothing $-5,217)
$350	17d	7 Aug 2026	$13.10	3/5	$6,935	$7,385	53%	68%	+$1,050	-$3,868	15.2%	$-3,648 (vs do-nothing $-4,093)
$350	10d	31 Jul 2026	$11.40	2/5	$6,840	$7,515	53%	67%	+$1,053	-$2,918	11.4%	$-2,624 (vs do-nothing $-3,068)
$350	3d	24 Jul 2026	$9.20	1/5	$9,200	$10,100	53%	67%	+$1,477	-$1,679	6.6%	$-1,309 (vs do-nothing $-1,754)
$347.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$13.50	3/5	$7,147	$7,597	50%	66%	+$616	-$4,498	17.6%	$-4,278 (vs do-nothing $-4,723)
$347.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$12.40	2/5	$7,440	$8,115	49%	66%	+$918	-$3,218	12.6%	$-2,924 (vs do-nothing $-3,368)
$347.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$10.45	1/5	$10,450	$11,350	48%	66%	+$1,487	-$1,804	7.1%	$-1,434 (vs do-nothing $-1,879)
$345	24d	14 Aug 2026	$16.15	3/5	$6,056	$6,506	47%	65%	+$543	-$4,453	17.5%	$-4,233 (vs do-nothing $-4,678)
$345	17d	7 Aug 2026	$14.65	3/5	$7,756	$8,206	47%	65%	+$533	-$4,903	19.2%	$-4,683 (vs do-nothing $-5,128)
$345	10d	31 Jul 2026	$13.35	2/5	$8,010	$8,685	46%	64%	+$691	-$3,528	13.8%	$-3,234 (vs do-nothing $-3,678)
$345	3d	24 Jul 2026	$11.35	1/5	$11,350	$12,250	44%	64%	+$1,024	-$1,964	7.7%	$-1,594 (vs do-nothing $-2,039)
$342.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$16.05	3/5	$8,497	$8,947	44%	63%	+$534	-$5,233	20.5%	$-5,013 (vs do-nothing $-5,458)
$342.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$14.70	2/5	$8,820	$9,495	42%	63%	+$640	-$3,758	14.7%	$-3,464 (vs do-nothing $-3,908)
$342.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$12.85	1/5	$12,850	$13,750	40%	62%	+$1,039	-$2,064	8.1%	$-1,694 (vs do-nothing $-2,139)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 21:43