FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $348.83

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $376.39 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $348.83 UNDERWATER $49.17 (12.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $376.39 (banked floor $369.31) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$12,328/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,159/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-10,925	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,164/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$12,328/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $376.39 (probe: $375C 16d) still earns $4,312/mo (35% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$7,936

was $10,925 · 27% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$376.39 → $369.31

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 36 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.53 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.18 · 1-wk expected move ±$26 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $376.39 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $380 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

81%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$2,275

Income / mo

$2,967

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

91%

Touch odds

19%

Per cycle

$1,000

Income / mo

$15,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $11.80/sh now → $8.35 mid-life (likely $9.30–$17.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $386 (overshoots $8.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.43/sh	+$1,717 cycle +$2,717 [+$626…+$2,079] · 85% credit	68% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$384	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$3.42/sh	+$1,710 cycle +$2,710 [-$34…+$1,995] · 74% credit	71% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$384	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.58/sh	+$288 cycle +$1,288 [-$1,325…+$400] · 41% credit	72% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$389	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.17/sh	+$83 cycle +$1,083 [-$1,965…+$169] · 30% credit	74% surv 65%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$399	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.61/sh	-$807 cycle +$193 [-$3,420…-$869] · 8% credit	79% surv 73%
budget: banked $1,000 debit $807 (81% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$193 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,590/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $435 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $435)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income / mo

$75

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$435	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.16/sh	+$1,078 cycle +$1,083	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$439	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.25/sh	+$123 cycle +$128	70% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$441	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.44/sh	+$221 cycle +$226	71% surv 59%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (45 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 45 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.796 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,967 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $952

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$387.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.95	5/5	$7,125	$7,125	100%	100%	+$7,104	-$0	0.0%	$517 (vs do-nothing $-435)
$385	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.14	4/5	$6,840	$7,181	99%	100%	+$6,807	-$0	0.0%	$680 (vs do-nothing $-272)
$382.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.36	4/5	$8,160	$8,501	99%	99%	+$8,096	-$0	0.0%	$768 (vs do-nothing $-184)
$375	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.39	2/5	$7,170	$8,194	97%	98%	+$6,975	-$0	0.0%	$788 (vs do-nothing $-164)
$370	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.35	2/5	$10,050	$11,074	94%	96%	+$9,489	-$608	2.4%	$-20 (vs do-nothing $-972)
$380	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.67	3/5	$7,515	$8,197	92%	93%	+$5,767	-$0	0.0%	$907 (vs do-nothing $-45)
$367.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.90	2/5	$11,700	$12,724	91%	95%	+$10,788	-$998	3.9%	$-410 (vs do-nothing $-1,362)
$377.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.00	3/5	$9,000	$9,682	91%	92%	+$6,629	-$0	0.0%	$1,006 (vs do-nothing +$54)
$372.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.79	2/5	$8,370	$9,394	86%	89%	+$5,562	-$220	0.9%	$368 (vs do-nothing $-584)
$372.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	5/5	$6,750	$6,750	79%	83%	+$2,557	-$0	0.0%	$122 (vs do-nothing $-830)
$365	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	1/5	$6,825	$8,190	78%	83%	+$3,802	-$684	2.7%	$86 (vs do-nothing $-866)
$370	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.80	4/5	$6,400	$6,741	77%	82%	+$2,453	-$636	2.5%	$-412 (vs do-nothing $-1,364)
$367.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.45	4/5	$7,267	$7,608	75%	80%	+$2,641	-$1,376	5.4%	$-1,152 (vs do-nothing $-2,104)

Show 32 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.25	1/5	$7,875	$9,240	74%	81%	+$4,070	-$864	3.4%	$-94 (vs do-nothing $-1,046)
$365	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/5	$8,000	$8,341	72%	78%	+$2,604	-$2,156	8.5%	$-1,932 (vs do-nothing $-2,884)
$365	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/5	$6,797	$6,797	70%	77%	+$1,971	-$2,070	8.1%	$-2,028 (vs do-nothing $-2,980)
$362.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$6,800	$7,483	69%	77%	+$2,099	-$2,127	8.3%	$-1,721 (vs do-nothing $-2,673)
$362.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.05	5/5	$7,547	$7,547	67%	75%	+$2,009	-$2,920	11.4%	$-2,878 (vs do-nothing $-3,830)
$357.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.90	1/5	$10,350	$11,715	67%	77%	+$4,532	-$1,199	4.7%	$-429 (vs do-nothing $-1,381)
$360	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/5	$7,700	$8,382	66%	75%	+$2,265	-$2,607	10.2%	$-2,201 (vs do-nothing $-3,153)
$360	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.90	4/5	$6,675	$7,016	65%	74%	+$1,692	-$2,996	11.7%	$-2,772 (vs do-nothing $-3,724)
$360	23d	14 Aug 2026	$10.15	5/5	$6,620	$6,620	64%	74%	+$1,582	-$3,120	12.2%	$-3,078 (vs do-nothing $-4,030)
$357.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$8.45	3/5	$8,450	$9,132	63%	73%	+$2,194	-$3,132	12.3%	$-2,726 (vs do-nothing $-3,678)
$355	2d	24 Jul 2026	$7.85	1/5	$11,775	$13,140	62%	75%	+$4,703	-$1,354	5.3%	$-584 (vs do-nothing $-1,536)
$357.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$9.85	4/5	$7,388	$7,729	61%	70%	+$328	-$3,616	14.2%	$-3,392 (vs do-nothing $-4,344)
$355	9d	31 Jul 2026	$9.45	2/5	$6,300	$7,324	60%	72%	+$1,522	-$2,388	9.4%	$-1,800 (vs do-nothing $-2,752)
$355	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.85	4/5	$8,138	$8,479	59%	71%	+$1,792	-$4,216	16.5%	$-3,992 (vs do-nothing $-4,944)
$355	23d	14 Aug 2026	$12.15	4/5	$6,339	$6,680	59%	71%	+$1,326	-$3,696	14.5%	$-3,472 (vs do-nothing $-4,424)
$352.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$8.90	1/5	$13,350	$14,715	58%	73%	+$4,845	-$1,499	5.9%	$-729 (vs do-nothing $-1,681)
$352.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$10.40	2/5	$6,933	$7,957	57%	70%	+$1,484	-$2,698	10.6%	$-2,110 (vs do-nothing $-3,062)
$352.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$12.00	3/5	$6,750	$7,432	56%	68%	+$308	-$3,567	14.0%	$-3,161 (vs do-nothing $-4,113)
$350	2d	24 Jul 2026	$10.00	1/5	$15,000	$16,365	53%	71%	+$4,874	-$1,639	6.4%	$-869 (vs do-nothing $-1,821)
$350	23d	14 Aug 2026	$14.45	4/5	$7,539	$7,880	53%	68%	+$1,412	-$4,776	18.7%	$-4,552 (vs do-nothing $-5,504)
$350	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.15	3/5	$7,397	$8,079	53%	68%	+$1,393	-$3,972	15.6%	$-3,566 (vs do-nothing $-4,518)
$350	9d	31 Jul 2026	$11.75	2/5	$7,833	$8,857	53%	69%	+$1,647	-$2,928	11.5%	$-2,340 (vs do-nothing $-3,292)
$347.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$14.30	3/5	$8,044	$8,726	50%	67%	+$1,236	-$4,377	17.2%	$-3,971 (vs do-nothing $-4,923)
$347.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$12.95	2/5	$8,633	$9,657	50%	67%	+$1,643	-$3,188	12.5%	$-2,600 (vs do-nothing $-3,552)
$345	23d	14 Aug 2026	$16.80	3/5	$6,574	$7,256	49%	64%	$-334	-$4,377	17.2%	$-3,971 (vs do-nothing $-4,923)
$347.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	1/5	$16,800	$18,165	49%	69%	+$4,857	-$1,769	6.9%	$-999 (vs do-nothing $-1,951)
$345	16d	7 Aug 2026	$15.35	3/5	$8,634	$9,317	48%	64%	+$157	-$4,812	18.9%	$-4,406 (vs do-nothing $-5,358)
$345	9d	31 Jul 2026	$14.15	2/5	$9,433	$10,457	46%	66%	+$1,569	-$3,448	13.5%	$-2,860 (vs do-nothing $-3,812)
$342.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$16.70	2/5	$6,262	$7,286	46%	63%	+$102	-$3,438	13.5%	$-2,850 (vs do-nothing $-3,802)
$345	2d	24 Jul 2026	$12.45	1/5	$18,675	$20,040	44%	67%	+$4,715	-$1,894	7.4%	$-1,124 (vs do-nothing $-2,076)
$342.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$15.45	2/5	$10,300	$11,324	43%	64%	+$1,462	-$3,688	14.5%	$-3,100 (vs do-nothing $-4,052)
$342.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$13.75	1/5	$20,625	$21,990	39%	65%	+$4,446	-$2,014	7.9%	$-1,244 (vs do-nothing $-2,196)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 03:37