FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $347.77

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $376.07 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $347.77 UNDERWATER $50.23 (12.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $376.07 (banked floor $368.99) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,934/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,259/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,200	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,967/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,934/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
4.0 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $376.07 (probe: $375C 16d) still earns $3,656/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,211

was $11,200 · 27% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$376.07 → $368.99

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 33 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.39 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.24 · 1-wk expected move ±$26 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $376.07 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $380 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$2,000

Income / mo

$2,609

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $395 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,000

Income / mo

$1,304

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

98%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$810

Income / mo

$12,150

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.70/sh now → $7.57 mid-life (likely $7.00–$14.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $382 (overshoots $4.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.43/sh	+$1,713 cycle +$2,523 [-$181…+$2,056] · 70% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$385	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.77/sh	+$1,383 cycle +$2,193 [-$788…+$1,834] · 64% credit	70% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$385	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.39/sh	+$197 cycle +$1,007 [-$2,094…+$458] · 40% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$390	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.22/sh	+$112 cycle +$922 [-$2,512…+$439] · 36% credit	71% surv 64%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.47/sh	-$236 cycle +$574 [-$2,775…+$145] · 30% credit	76% surv 70%
budget: banked $810 debit $236 (29% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$574 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,837/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.790 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,178 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $688

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.92	5/5	$6,900	$6,900	100%	100%	+$6,871	-$0	0.0%	$438 (vs do-nothing $-250)
$382.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.08	4/5	$6,480	$6,746	99%	99%	+$6,434	-$0	0.0%	$552 (vs do-nothing $-136)
$380	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.32	4/5	$7,920	$8,186	99%	99%	+$7,832	-$0	0.0%	$648 (vs do-nothing $-40)
$377.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.62	3/5	$7,290	$7,822	98%	99%	+$7,167	-$0	0.0%	$748 (vs do-nothing +$60)
$375	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.97	3/5	$8,865	$9,398	97%	98%	+$8,643	-$0	0.0%	$532 (vs do-nothing $-155)
$372.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.30	2/5	$6,900	$7,699	96%	97%	+$6,641	-$254	1.0%	$150 (vs do-nothing $-538)
$370	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.77	2/5	$8,310	$9,109	95%	96%	+$7,869	-$660	2.6%	$-256 (vs do-nothing $-944)
$367.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	2/5	$9,750	$10,549	92%	95%	+$9,021	-$1,064	4.2%	$-660 (vs do-nothing $-1,348)
$365	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/5	$11,550	$12,349	89%	94%	+$10,382	-$1,444	5.7%	$-1,040 (vs do-nothing $-1,728)
$362.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	1/5	$6,750	$7,815	86%	92%	+$5,841	-$907	3.6%	$-361 (vs do-nothing $-1,049)
$370	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.20	5/5	$7,000	$7,000	78%	82%	+$2,477	-$934	3.7%	$-956 (vs do-nothing $-1,644)
$357.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.00	1/5	$9,000	$10,065	77%	88%	+$6,982	-$1,257	4.9%	$-711 (vs do-nothing $-1,399)
$367.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.60	4/5	$6,133	$6,400	76%	80%	+$1,870	-$1,587	6.2%	$-1,467 (vs do-nothing $-2,155)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$365	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$6,933	$7,200	73%	79%	+$1,934	-$2,347	9.2%	$-2,227 (vs do-nothing $-2,915)
$355	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	1/5	$10,275	$11,340	71%	85%	+$7,393	-$1,422	5.6%	$-876 (vs do-nothing $-1,564)
$362.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/5	$6,000	$6,532	70%	77%	+$1,624	-$2,270	8.9%	$-2,009 (vs do-nothing $-2,696)
$360	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$6,800	$7,333	68%	75%	+$1,719	-$2,780	10.9%	$-2,519 (vs do-nothing $-3,206)
$362.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	5/5	$6,562	$6,562	67%	73%	$-244	-$3,284	12.9%	$-3,306 (vs do-nothing $-3,994)
$357.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.20	3/5	$7,200	$7,732	65%	73%	+$1,330	-$3,410	13.4%	$-3,149 (vs do-nothing $-3,836)
$360	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.00	4/5	$6,000	$6,266	64%	72%	$-57	-$3,227	12.7%	$-3,107 (vs do-nothing $-3,795)
$352.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$7.80	1/5	$11,700	$12,765	64%	82%	+$7,697	-$1,577	6.2%	$-1,031 (vs do-nothing $-1,719)
$357.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.85	4/5	$6,638	$6,904	62%	70%	$-82	-$3,887	15.2%	$-3,767 (vs do-nothing $-4,455)
$355	9d	31 Jul 2026	$8.45	3/5	$8,450	$8,982	61%	72%	+$1,703	-$3,785	14.8%	$-3,524 (vs do-nothing $-4,211)
$355	23d	14 Aug 2026	$10.70	5/5	$6,978	$6,978	60%	71%	+$1,066	-$5,184	20.3%	$-5,206 (vs do-nothing $-5,894)
$355	16d	7 Aug 2026	$9.45	4/5	$7,088	$7,354	60%	69%	$-346	-$4,647	18.2%	$-4,527 (vs do-nothing $-5,215)
$352.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$9.50	2/5	$6,333	$7,132	58%	70%	+$1,189	-$2,814	11.0%	$-2,410 (vs do-nothing $-3,098)
$350	2d	24 Jul 2026	$8.75	1/5	$13,125	$14,190	57%	79%	+$7,710	-$1,732	6.8%	$-1,186 (vs do-nothing $-1,874)
$352.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.50	4/5	$7,875	$8,141	57%	67%	$-327	-$5,227	20.5%	$-5,107 (vs do-nothing $-5,795)
$350	9d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	2/5	$7,000	$7,799	55%	69%	+$1,147	-$3,114	12.2%	$-2,710 (vs do-nothing $-3,398)
$350	23d	14 Aug 2026	$12.60	4/5	$6,574	$6,840	55%	68%	+$754	-$5,387	21.1%	$-5,267 (vs do-nothing $-5,955)
$350	16d	7 Aug 2026	$11.70	3/5	$6,581	$7,114	55%	66%	$-188	-$4,310	16.9%	$-4,049 (vs do-nothing $-4,736)
$347.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.00	3/5	$7,312	$7,845	52%	67%	+$972	-$4,670	18.3%	$-4,409 (vs do-nothing $-5,096)
$347.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$11.60	2/5	$7,733	$8,532	51%	67%	+$1,106	-$3,394	13.3%	$-2,990 (vs do-nothing $-3,678)
$347.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$10.00	1/5	$15,000	$16,065	50%	77%	+$7,861	-$1,857	7.3%	$-1,311 (vs do-nothing $-1,999)
$345	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.80	3/5	$7,762	$8,295	49%	64%	$-370	-$5,180	20.3%	$-4,919 (vs do-nothing $-5,606)
$345	23d	14 Aug 2026	$15.15	4/5	$7,904	$8,171	49%	66%	+$831	-$6,367	25.0%	$-6,247 (vs do-nothing $-6,935)
$345	9d	31 Jul 2026	$12.70	2/5	$8,467	$9,265	48%	65%	+$998	-$3,674	14.4%	$-3,270 (vs do-nothing $-3,958)
$342.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$15.15	3/5	$8,522	$9,054	47%	63%	$-356	-$5,525	21.7%	$-5,264 (vs do-nothing $-5,951)
$345	2d	24 Jul 2026	$11.05	1/5	$16,575	$17,640	46%	66%	+$3,492	-$2,002	7.9%	$-1,456 (vs do-nothing $-2,144)
$342.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	2/5	$9,400	$10,199	44%	64%	+$1,022	-$3,894	15.3%	$-3,490 (vs do-nothing $-4,178)
$342.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$12.30	1/5	$18,450	$19,515	41%	64%	+$3,239	-$2,127	8.3%	$-1,581 (vs do-nothing $-2,269)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 13:54