FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $347.80

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $376.39 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $347.80 UNDERWATER $50.20 (12.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $376.39 (banked floor $369.24) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,906/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,259/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,200	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,953/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,906/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
4.0 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $376.39 (probe: $375C 16d) still earns $3,656/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,211

was $11,200 · 27% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$376.39 → $369.24

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 34 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.39 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.24 · 1-wk expected move ±$26 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $376.39 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $380 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

80%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$1,625

Income / mo

$3,047

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$377	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$2.12/sh	+$1,058 cycle +$2,683 [+$466…+$1,495] · 95% credit	62% surv 49%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.49/sh	+$247 cycle +$1,872 [-$119…+$1,016] · 68% credit	66% surv 52%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$387	14 Aug 2026	15d left	-$2.50/sh	-$1,249 cycle +$376 [-$1,868…-$830] · 9% credit	71% surv 61%
budget: banked $1,625 debit $1,249 (77% used ≈ 1.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$376 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,029/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $385 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$915

Income / mo

$3,050

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.12/sh now → $9.28 mid-life (likely $8.45–$13.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 475 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $392 (overshoots $6.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$387	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.82/sh	+$912 cycle +$1,827 [+$428…+$1,822] · 91% credit	68% surv 54%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.81/sh	+$903 cycle +$1,818 [+$404…+$1,486] · 88% credit	64% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$387	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.70/sh	+$349 cycle +$1,264 [-$285…+$827] · 59% credit	65% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$387	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.70/sh	+$349 cycle +$1,264 [-$285…+$827] · 59% credit	65% surv 54%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$392	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.08/sh	-$40 cycle +$875 [-$650…+$704] · 48% credit	71% surv 61%
budget: banked $915 debit $40 (4% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$875 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,664/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

98%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$810

Income / mo

$12,150

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.67/sh now → $7.55 mid-life (likely $7.02–$14.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $382 (overshoots $4.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.43/sh	+$1,717 cycle +$2,527 [-$188…+$2,048] · 70% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$385	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.79/sh	+$1,394 cycle +$2,204 [-$790…+$1,831] · 64% credit	70% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$385	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.42/sh	+$208 cycle +$1,018 [-$2,094…+$455] · 40% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$390	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.25/sh	+$123 cycle +$933 [-$2,516…+$433] · 36% credit	71% surv 64%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.45/sh	-$225 cycle +$585 [-$2,778…+$139] · 30% credit	76% surv 70%
budget: banked $810 debit $225 (28% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$585 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,837/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$12,867 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,377

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.92	5/5	$6,900	$6,900	100%	100%	+$6,870	-$0	0.0%	$2,127 (vs do-nothing $-250)
$382.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.08	4/5	$6,480	$6,746	99%	99%	+$6,433	-$0	0.0%	$2,241 (vs do-nothing $-136)
$380	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.32	4/5	$7,920	$8,186	99%	99%	+$7,831	-$0	0.0%	$2,337 (vs do-nothing $-40)
$377.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.62	3/5	$7,290	$7,822	98%	99%	+$7,166	-$0	0.0%	$2,437 (vs do-nothing +$60)
$375	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.97	3/5	$8,865	$9,398	97%	98%	+$8,641	-$0	0.0%	$2,124 (vs do-nothing $-253)
$372.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.30	2/5	$6,900	$7,699	96%	97%	+$6,638	-$319	1.3%	$1,774 (vs do-nothing $-603)
$370	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.77	2/5	$8,310	$9,109	94%	96%	+$7,865	-$725	2.8%	$1,368 (vs do-nothing $-1,009)
$367.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	2/5	$9,750	$10,549	92%	95%	+$9,016	-$1,129	4.4%	$964 (vs do-nothing $-1,413)
$365	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/5	$11,550	$12,349	89%	94%	+$10,374	-$1,509	5.9%	$584 (vs do-nothing $-1,793)
$362.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	1/5	$6,750	$7,815	86%	92%	+$5,835	-$939	3.7%	$1,296 (vs do-nothing $-1,081)
$370	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.20	5/5	$7,000	$7,000	78%	82%	+$2,466	-$1,097	4.3%	$570 (vs do-nothing $-1,807)
$357.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.00	1/5	$9,000	$10,065	76%	87%	+$6,971	-$1,289	5.1%	$946 (vs do-nothing $-1,431)
$367.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.60	4/5	$6,133	$6,400	76%	80%	+$1,861	-$1,718	6.7%	$92 (vs do-nothing $-2,286)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$365	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$6,933	$7,200	73%	79%	+$1,923	-$2,478	9.7%	$-668 (vs do-nothing $-3,046)
$355	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	1/5	$10,275	$11,340	71%	85%	+$7,380	-$1,454	5.7%	$781 (vs do-nothing $-1,596)
$362.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/5	$6,000	$6,532	70%	77%	+$1,615	-$2,368	9.3%	$-417 (vs do-nothing $-2,794)
$360	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$6,800	$7,333	68%	75%	+$1,709	-$2,878	11.3%	$-927 (vs do-nothing $-3,304)
$362.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	5/5	$6,562	$6,562	67%	73%	$-257	-$3,447	13.5%	$-1,780 (vs do-nothing $-4,157)
$357.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.20	3/5	$7,200	$7,732	64%	73%	+$1,319	-$3,508	13.8%	$-1,557 (vs do-nothing $-3,934)
$360	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.00	4/5	$6,000	$6,266	64%	72%	$-68	-$3,358	13.2%	$-1,548 (vs do-nothing $-3,926)
$352.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$7.80	1/5	$11,700	$12,765	64%	82%	+$7,680	-$1,609	6.3%	$626 (vs do-nothing $-1,751)
$357.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.85	4/5	$6,638	$6,904	62%	70%	$-93	-$4,018	15.8%	$-2,208 (vs do-nothing $-4,586)
$355	9d	31 Jul 2026	$8.45	3/5	$8,450	$8,982	61%	72%	+$1,691	-$3,883	15.2%	$-1,932 (vs do-nothing $-4,309)
$355	23d	14 Aug 2026	$10.70	5/5	$6,978	$6,978	60%	71%	+$1,058	-$5,347	21.0%	$-3,680 (vs do-nothing $-6,057)
$355	16d	7 Aug 2026	$9.45	4/5	$7,088	$7,354	59%	69%	$-358	-$4,778	18.7%	$-2,968 (vs do-nothing $-5,346)
$352.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$9.50	2/5	$6,333	$7,132	58%	70%	+$1,195	-$2,879	11.3%	$-786 (vs do-nothing $-3,163)
$350	2d	24 Jul 2026	$8.75	1/5	$13,125	$14,190	57%	79%	+$7,689	-$1,764	6.9%	$471 (vs do-nothing $-1,906)
$352.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.50	4/5	$7,875	$8,141	57%	67%	$-340	-$5,358	21.0%	$-3,548 (vs do-nothing $-5,926)
$350	9d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	2/5	$7,000	$7,799	55%	69%	+$1,144	-$3,179	12.5%	$-1,086 (vs do-nothing $-3,463)
$350	23d	14 Aug 2026	$12.60	4/5	$6,574	$6,840	54%	68%	+$746	-$5,518	21.6%	$-3,708 (vs do-nothing $-6,086)
$350	16d	7 Aug 2026	$11.70	3/5	$6,581	$7,114	54%	66%	$-198	-$4,408	17.3%	$-2,457 (vs do-nothing $-4,834)
$347.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.00	3/5	$7,312	$7,845	52%	65%	$-128	-$4,768	18.7%	$-2,817 (vs do-nothing $-5,194)
$347.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$11.60	2/5	$7,733	$8,532	51%	67%	+$1,094	-$3,459	13.6%	$-1,366 (vs do-nothing $-3,743)
$345	23d	14 Aug 2026	$15.15	4/5	$7,904	$8,171	50%	63%	$-996	-$6,498	25.5%	$-4,688 (vs do-nothing $-7,066)
$347.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$10.00	1/5	$15,000	$16,065	50%	77%	+$7,836	-$1,889	7.4%	$346 (vs do-nothing $-2,031)
$345	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.80	3/5	$7,762	$8,295	49%	64%	$-381	-$5,278	20.7%	$-3,327 (vs do-nothing $-5,704)
$345	9d	31 Jul 2026	$12.70	2/5	$8,467	$9,265	48%	65%	+$975	-$3,739	14.7%	$-1,646 (vs do-nothing $-4,023)
$342.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$15.15	3/5	$8,522	$9,054	47%	63%	$-368	-$5,623	22.1%	$-3,672 (vs do-nothing $-6,049)
$342.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	2/5	$9,400	$10,199	44%	64%	+$1,010	-$3,959	15.5%	$-1,866 (vs do-nothing $-4,243)
$345	2d	24 Jul 2026	$11.05	1/5	$16,575	$17,640	43%	73%	+$7,361	-$2,034	8.0%	$201 (vs do-nothing $-2,176)
$342.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$12.30	1/5	$18,450	$19,515	36%	71%	+$6,870	-$2,159	8.5%	$76 (vs do-nothing $-2,301)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 14:15