FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $347.89

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $376.18 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $347.89 UNDERWATER $50.11 (12.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $376.18 (banked floor $369.10) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,822/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,259/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,200	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,911/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,822/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
4.1 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $376.18 (probe: $375C 16d) still earns $3,656/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,211

was $11,200 · 27% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$376.18 → $369.10

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 34 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.39 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.24 · 1-wk expected move ±$25 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $376.18 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $380 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$2,000

Income / mo

$2,609

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $385 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$915

Income / mo

$3,050

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.07/sh now → $9.24 mid-life (likely $8.39–$13.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 479 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $391 (overshoots $6.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$387	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.87/sh	+$933 cycle +$1,848 [+$464…+$1,832] · 92% credit	67% surv 54%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.80/sh	+$900 cycle +$1,815 [+$419…+$1,492] · 89% credit	64% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$387	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.74/sh	+$369 cycle +$1,284 [-$222…+$859] · 60% credit	65% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$387	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.74/sh	+$369 cycle +$1,284 [-$222…+$859] · 60% credit	65% surv 54%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$392	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.04/sh	-$19 cycle +$896 [-$602…+$748] · 50% credit	71% surv 60%
budget: banked $915 debit $19 (2% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$896 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,668/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

98%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$810

Income / mo

$12,150

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.58/sh now → $7.48 mid-life (likely $6.99–$14.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $382 (overshoots $4.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.46/sh	+$1,729 cycle +$2,539 [-$166…+$2,051] · 70% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$385	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.85/sh	+$1,426 cycle +$2,236 [-$743…+$1,853] · 64% credit	70% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$385	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.48/sh	+$240 cycle +$1,050 [-$2,048…+$478] · 40% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$390	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.16/sh	+$80 cycle +$890 [-$2,324…+$415] · 36% credit	74% surv 66%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$1.56/sh	-$780 cycle +$30 [-$3,422…-$482] · 4% credit	77% surv 71%
budget: banked $810 debit $780 (96% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$30 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,922/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.790 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,173 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $683

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.92	5/5	$6,900	$6,900	100%	100%	+$6,871	-$0	0.0%	$433 (vs do-nothing $-250)
$382.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.08	4/5	$6,480	$6,746	99%	99%	+$6,433	-$0	0.0%	$547 (vs do-nothing $-136)
$380	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.32	3/5	$5,940	$6,472	99%	99%	+$5,873	-$0	0.0%	$653 (vs do-nothing $-30)
$377.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.62	3/5	$7,290	$7,822	98%	99%	+$7,165	-$0	0.0%	$743 (vs do-nothing +$60)
$375	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.97	3/5	$8,865	$9,398	97%	98%	+$8,640	-$0	0.0%	$495 (vs do-nothing $-188)
$372.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.30	2/5	$6,900	$7,699	96%	97%	+$6,637	-$275	1.1%	$124 (vs do-nothing $-559)
$370	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.77	2/5	$8,310	$9,109	94%	96%	+$7,863	-$681	2.7%	$-282 (vs do-nothing $-965)
$367.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	2/5	$9,750	$10,549	92%	95%	+$9,011	-$1,085	4.3%	$-686 (vs do-nothing $-1,369)
$365	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/5	$11,550	$12,349	89%	94%	+$10,366	-$1,465	5.7%	$-1,066 (vs do-nothing $-1,749)
$362.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	1/5	$6,750	$7,815	86%	92%	+$5,829	-$918	3.6%	$-376 (vs do-nothing $-1,060)
$370	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.20	5/5	$7,000	$7,000	78%	82%	+$2,436	-$988	3.9%	$-1,015 (vs do-nothing $-1,698)
$357.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.00	1/5	$9,000	$10,065	76%	87%	+$6,956	-$1,268	5.0%	$-726 (vs do-nothing $-1,410)
$367.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.60	4/5	$6,133	$6,400	76%	80%	+$1,833	-$1,631	6.4%	$-1,515 (vs do-nothing $-2,199)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$365	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$6,933	$7,200	73%	79%	+$1,892	-$2,391	9.4%	$-2,275 (vs do-nothing $-2,959)
$355	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	1/5	$10,275	$11,340	70%	85%	+$7,357	-$1,433	5.6%	$-891 (vs do-nothing $-1,575)
$362.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/5	$6,000	$6,532	70%	77%	+$1,589	-$2,303	9.0%	$-2,046 (vs do-nothing $-2,729)
$362.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	5/5	$6,562	$6,562	68%	76%	+$1,290	-$3,338	13.1%	$-3,365 (vs do-nothing $-4,048)
$360	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$6,800	$7,333	67%	75%	+$1,680	-$2,813	11.0%	$-2,556 (vs do-nothing $-3,239)
$360	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.00	4/5	$6,000	$6,266	66%	74%	+$1,220	-$3,271	12.8%	$-3,155 (vs do-nothing $-3,839)
$357.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.20	3/5	$7,200	$7,732	64%	73%	+$1,286	-$3,443	13.5%	$-3,186 (vs do-nothing $-3,869)
$357.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.85	4/5	$6,638	$6,904	63%	73%	+$1,238	-$3,931	15.4%	$-3,815 (vs do-nothing $-4,499)
$355	9d	31 Jul 2026	$8.45	3/5	$8,450	$8,982	61%	72%	+$1,655	-$3,818	15.0%	$-3,561 (vs do-nothing $-4,244)
$355	16d	7 Aug 2026	$9.45	4/5	$7,088	$7,354	60%	71%	+$1,009	-$4,691	18.4%	$-4,575 (vs do-nothing $-5,259)
$355	23d	14 Aug 2026	$10.70	5/5	$6,978	$6,978	60%	71%	+$1,033	-$5,238	20.5%	$-5,265 (vs do-nothing $-5,948)
$352.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$7.80	1/5	$11,700	$12,765	60%	73%	+$3,733	-$1,588	6.2%	$-1,046 (vs do-nothing $-1,730)
$352.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$9.50	2/5	$6,333	$7,132	58%	70%	+$1,154	-$2,835	11.1%	$-2,436 (vs do-nothing $-3,119)
$352.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.50	4/5	$7,875	$8,141	57%	67%	$-347	-$5,271	20.7%	$-5,155 (vs do-nothing $-5,839)
$350	2d	24 Jul 2026	$8.75	1/5	$13,125	$14,190	55%	70%	+$3,611	-$1,743	6.8%	$-1,201 (vs do-nothing $-1,885)
$350	9d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	2/5	$7,000	$7,799	55%	68%	+$1,108	-$3,135	12.3%	$-2,736 (vs do-nothing $-3,419)
$350	23d	14 Aug 2026	$12.60	4/5	$6,574	$6,840	54%	68%	+$723	-$5,431	21.3%	$-5,315 (vs do-nothing $-5,999)
$350	16d	7 Aug 2026	$11.70	3/5	$6,581	$7,114	54%	66%	$-205	-$4,343	17.0%	$-4,086 (vs do-nothing $-4,769)
$347.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.00	3/5	$7,312	$7,845	52%	65%	$-136	-$4,703	18.4%	$-4,446 (vs do-nothing $-5,129)
$347.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$11.60	2/5	$7,733	$8,532	51%	67%	+$1,064	-$3,415	13.4%	$-3,016 (vs do-nothing $-3,699)
$347.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$10.00	1/5	$15,000	$16,065	50%	76%	+$7,783	-$1,868	7.3%	$-1,326 (vs do-nothing $-2,010)
$345	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.80	3/5	$7,762	$8,295	49%	64%	$-390	-$5,213	20.4%	$-4,956 (vs do-nothing $-5,639)
$345	23d	14 Aug 2026	$15.15	3/5	$5,928	$6,461	49%	66%	+$597	-$4,808	18.9%	$-4,551 (vs do-nothing $-5,234)
$345	9d	31 Jul 2026	$12.70	2/5	$8,467	$9,265	48%	65%	+$953	-$3,695	14.5%	$-3,296 (vs do-nothing $-3,979)
$342.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$15.15	3/5	$8,522	$9,054	47%	63%	$-379	-$5,558	21.8%	$-5,301 (vs do-nothing $-5,984)
$342.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	2/5	$9,400	$10,199	44%	64%	+$974	-$3,915	15.4%	$-3,516 (vs do-nothing $-4,199)
$345	2d	24 Jul 2026	$11.05	1/5	$16,575	$17,640	42%	73%	+$7,296	-$2,013	7.9%	$-1,471 (vs do-nothing $-2,155)
$342.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$12.30	1/5	$18,450	$19,515	35%	70%	+$6,794	-$2,138	8.4%	$-1,596 (vs do-nothing $-2,280)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 14:45