FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $346.62

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.09 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $346.62 UNDERWATER $51.38 (12.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.09 (banked floor $367.98) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,953/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,270/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,225	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,977/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,953/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
4.0 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $375.09 (probe: $375C 16d) still earns $3,656/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,236

was $11,225 · 27% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$375.09 → $367.98

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 50 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 30 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.43 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.20 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $375.09 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $380 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

82%

Touch odds

36%

Per cycle

$2,000

Income / mo

$2,609

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$740

Income / mo

$11,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.76/sh	+$1,379 cycle +$2,119	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$381	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.33/sh	+$664 cycle +$1,404	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$386	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.28/sh	+$140 cycle +$880	71% surv 62%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$391	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$1.36/sh	-$682 cycle +$58	75% surv 67%
budget: banked $740 debit $682 (92% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,307/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $422.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $422.50)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$10

Income / mo

$150

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$422	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.75/sh	+$876 cycle +$886	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$426	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$165 cycle +$175	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$431	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$37 cycle +$47	71% surv 61%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (45 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 45 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.790 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,247 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $757

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.83	5/5	$6,225	$6,225	100%	100%	+$6,222	-$0	0.0%	$437 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$375	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.82	3/5	$8,190	$8,741	99%	99%	+$8,142	-$0	0.0%	$835 (vs do-nothing +$79)
$372.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.21	2/5	$6,630	$7,457	98%	99%	+$6,563	-$76	0.3%	$387 (vs do-nothing $-370)
$367.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	2/5	$9,300	$10,127	96%	98%	+$9,046	-$898	3.5%	$-435 (vs do-nothing $-1,192)
$365	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	2/5	$10,950	$11,777	94%	97%	+$10,484	-$1,288	5.0%	$-825 (vs do-nothing $-1,582)
$382.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.99	5/5	$7,425	$7,425	93%	94%	+$4,606	-$0	0.0%	$517 (vs do-nothing $-240)
$380	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.25	4/5	$7,500	$7,776	92%	92%	+$4,509	-$0	0.0%	$669 (vs do-nothing $-88)
$362.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	1/5	$6,375	$7,478	91%	95%	+$5,965	-$834	3.3%	$-224 (vs do-nothing $-981)
$377.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.48	3/5	$6,660	$7,211	90%	91%	+$3,714	-$0	0.0%	$760 (vs do-nothing +$3)
$370	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.67	2/5	$8,010	$8,837	84%	87%	+$4,093	-$484	1.9%	$-21 (vs do-nothing $-778)
$357.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	1/5	$8,625	$9,728	82%	92%	+$7,496	-$1,184	4.6%	$-574 (vs do-nothing $-1,331)
$370	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	5/5	$6,667	$6,667	79%	83%	+$2,349	-$544	2.1%	$-522 (vs do-nothing $-1,279)
$367.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.40	5/5	$7,333	$7,333	77%	81%	+$2,258	-$1,594	6.3%	$-1,572 (vs do-nothing $-2,329)

Show 32 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$355	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.60	1/5	$9,900	$11,002	76%	90%	+$8,136	-$1,349	5.3%	$-739 (vs do-nothing $-1,496)
$365	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/5	$6,800	$7,076	74%	79%	+$2,047	-$1,995	7.8%	$-1,826 (vs do-nothing $-2,583)
$362.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.75	4/5	$7,667	$7,942	72%	78%	+$2,126	-$2,735	10.7%	$-2,566 (vs do-nothing $-3,323)
$362.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.85	5/5	$6,422	$6,422	70%	76%	+$1,396	-$2,869	11.3%	$-2,847 (vs do-nothing $-3,604)
$352.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$7.50	1/5	$11,250	$12,352	69%	88%	+$8,595	-$1,509	5.9%	$-899 (vs do-nothing $-1,656)
$360	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.60	3/5	$6,600	$7,151	69%	76%	+$1,778	-$2,546	10.0%	$-2,231 (vs do-nothing $-2,987)
$360	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.65	5/5	$7,172	$7,172	67%	75%	+$1,466	-$3,719	14.6%	$-3,697 (vs do-nothing $-4,454)
$357.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.30	3/5	$7,300	$7,851	66%	74%	+$1,671	-$3,086	12.1%	$-2,771 (vs do-nothing $-3,527)
$357.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.65	4/5	$6,488	$6,763	64%	73%	+$1,324	-$3,575	14.0%	$-3,406 (vs do-nothing $-4,163)
$355	9d	31 Jul 2026	$8.25	3/5	$8,250	$8,801	63%	73%	+$1,772	-$3,551	13.9%	$-3,236 (vs do-nothing $-3,992)
$355	16d	7 Aug 2026	$9.30	4/5	$6,975	$7,251	62%	72%	+$1,154	-$4,315	16.9%	$-4,146 (vs do-nothing $-4,903)
$355	23d	14 Aug 2026	$10.60	5/5	$6,913	$6,913	61%	72%	+$1,207	-$4,744	18.6%	$-4,722 (vs do-nothing $-5,479)
$352.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$9.05	2/5	$6,033	$6,860	60%	71%	+$1,103	-$2,708	10.6%	$-2,245 (vs do-nothing $-3,002)
$352.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.50	4/5	$7,875	$8,151	59%	71%	+$1,335	-$4,835	19.0%	$-4,666 (vs do-nothing $-5,423)
$350	2d	24 Jul 2026	$8.75	1/5	$13,125	$14,228	57%	71%	+$3,358	-$1,634	6.4%	$-1,024 (vs do-nothing $-1,781)
$350	9d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	2/5	$7,000	$7,827	56%	70%	+$1,417	-$2,918	11.4%	$-2,455 (vs do-nothing $-3,212)
$350	16d	7 Aug 2026	$11.70	3/5	$6,581	$7,132	56%	69%	+$1,090	-$4,016	15.8%	$-3,701 (vs do-nothing $-4,457)
$350	23d	14 Aug 2026	$13.00	4/5	$6,783	$7,058	56%	69%	+$1,155	-$4,835	19.0%	$-4,666 (vs do-nothing $-5,423)
$347.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$9.90	1/5	$14,850	$15,952	54%	82%	+$9,458	-$1,769	6.9%	$-1,159 (vs do-nothing $-1,916)
$347.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$12.75	3/5	$7,172	$7,723	53%	68%	+$1,045	-$4,451	17.5%	$-4,136 (vs do-nothing $-4,892)
$347.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$11.45	2/5	$7,633	$8,460	53%	68%	+$1,364	-$3,228	12.7%	$-2,765 (vs do-nothing $-3,522)
$345	23d	14 Aug 2026	$15.25	4/5	$7,957	$8,232	50%	67%	+$1,103	-$5,935	23.3%	$-5,766 (vs do-nothing $-6,523)
$345	16d	7 Aug 2026	$14.10	3/5	$7,931	$8,482	50%	67%	+$1,118	-$4,796	18.8%	$-4,481 (vs do-nothing $-5,237)
$345	9d	31 Jul 2026	$12.80	2/5	$8,533	$9,360	49%	67%	+$1,378	-$3,458	13.6%	$-2,995 (vs do-nothing $-3,752)
$345	2d	24 Jul 2026	$11.00	1/5	$16,500	$17,602	49%	67%	+$3,198	-$1,909	7.5%	$-1,299 (vs do-nothing $-2,056)
$342.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$15.30	3/5	$8,606	$9,158	47%	66%	+$1,057	-$5,186	20.3%	$-4,871 (vs do-nothing $-5,627)
$342.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$14.40	2/5	$9,600	$10,427	46%	65%	+$1,568	-$3,638	14.3%	$-3,175 (vs do-nothing $-3,932)
$340	23d	14 Aug 2026	$17.80	3/5	$6,965	$7,516	45%	65%	+$778	-$5,186	20.3%	$-4,871 (vs do-nothing $-5,627)
$342.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$12.25	1/5	$18,375	$19,478	44%	65%	+$3,041	-$2,034	8.0%	$-1,424 (vs do-nothing $-2,181)
$340	16d	7 Aug 2026	$16.75	2/5	$6,281	$7,108	44%	64%	+$724	-$3,668	14.4%	$-3,205 (vs do-nothing $-3,962)
$340	9d	31 Jul 2026	$15.40	2/5	$10,267	$11,094	43%	64%	+$1,263	-$3,938	15.4%	$-3,475 (vs do-nothing $-4,232)
$340	2d	24 Jul 2026	$13.75	1/5	$20,625	$21,728	40%	63%	+$3,080	-$2,134	8.4%	$-1,524 (vs do-nothing $-2,281)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 21:51