FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $347.74

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.75 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $347.74 UNDERWATER $50.26 (12.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.75 (banked floor $368.67) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$12,384/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,170/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,088	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,192/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$12,384/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $375.75 (probe: $375C 16d) still earns $3,891/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,098

was $11,088 · 27% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$375.75 → $368.67

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 32 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.49 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.14 · 1-wk expected move ±$24 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $375.75 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $380 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$2,050

Income / mo

$2,674

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $395 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,025

Income / mo

$1,337

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

99%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$660

Income / mo

$9,900

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.65/sh	+$1,827 cycle +$2,487	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$385	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.38/sh	+$188 cycle +$848	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$390	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.23/sh	+$115 cycle +$775	74% surv 66%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.41/sh	-$207 cycle +$453	77% surv 70%
budget: banked $660 debit $207 (31% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$453 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,959/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (40 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.792 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,093 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $765

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$377.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.32	4/5	$7,920	$8,205	99%	99%	+$7,834	-$0	0.0%	$685 (vs do-nothing $-80)
$382.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.92	5/5	$6,900	$6,900	93%	94%	+$4,122	-$0	0.0%	$465 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$380	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.13	4/5	$6,780	$7,065	92%	92%	+$3,869	-$0	0.0%	$609 (vs do-nothing $-156)
$375	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.67	3/5	$7,515	$8,085	88%	89%	+$3,809	-$0	0.0%	$585 (vs do-nothing $-181)
$372.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.00	3/5	$9,000	$9,570	86%	88%	+$4,213	-$376	1.5%	$-66 (vs do-nothing $-832)
$370	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.43	2/5	$7,290	$8,145	83%	86%	+$3,198	-$665	2.6%	$-203 (vs do-nothing $-969)
$367.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.93	2/5	$8,790	$9,645	81%	84%	+$3,589	-$1,065	4.2%	$-603 (vs do-nothing $-1,369)
$370	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.95	5/5	$6,583	$6,583	78%	82%	+$1,981	-$901	3.5%	$-896 (vs do-nothing $-1,661)
$365	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	2/5	$10,500	$11,355	78%	82%	+$3,949	-$1,451	5.7%	$-989 (vs do-nothing $-1,755)
$367.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.70	4/5	$6,267	$6,552	76%	80%	+$1,936	-$1,421	5.6%	$-1,264 (vs do-nothing $-2,029)
$362.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.05	2/5	$12,150	$13,005	74%	80%	+$3,979	-$1,841	7.2%	$-1,379 (vs do-nothing $-2,145)
$365	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.40	4/5	$7,200	$7,485	73%	79%	+$2,128	-$2,141	8.4%	$-1,984 (vs do-nothing $-2,749)
$362.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.90	4/5	$7,867	$8,152	70%	77%	+$1,952	-$2,941	11.5%	$-2,784 (vs do-nothing $-3,549)

Show 27 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/5	$6,797	$6,797	69%	76%	+$1,656	-$3,001	11.8%	$-2,996 (vs do-nothing $-3,761)
$360	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.90	3/5	$6,900	$7,470	67%	75%	+$1,752	-$2,656	10.4%	$-2,346 (vs do-nothing $-3,112)
$357.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.70	1/5	$8,550	$9,690	67%	75%	+$2,399	-$1,255	4.9%	$-642 (vs do-nothing $-1,407)
$360	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.30	4/5	$6,225	$6,510	66%	75%	+$1,548	-$2,981	11.7%	$-2,824 (vs do-nothing $-3,589)
$357.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/5	$7,700	$8,270	64%	74%	+$1,774	-$3,166	12.4%	$-2,856 (vs do-nothing $-3,622)
$357.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.95	4/5	$6,712	$6,998	63%	73%	+$1,412	-$3,721	14.6%	$-3,564 (vs do-nothing $-4,329)
$355	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.60	1/5	$9,900	$11,040	63%	73%	+$2,480	-$1,415	5.6%	$-802 (vs do-nothing $-1,567)
$355	9d	31 Jul 2026	$8.55	3/5	$8,550	$9,120	61%	72%	+$1,717	-$3,661	14.4%	$-3,351 (vs do-nothing $-4,117)
$355	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.00	4/5	$7,500	$7,785	60%	72%	+$1,515	-$4,301	16.9%	$-4,144 (vs do-nothing $-4,909)
$355	23d	14 Aug 2026	$11.25	5/5	$7,337	$7,337	60%	71%	+$1,451	-$4,751	18.6%	$-4,746 (vs do-nothing $-5,511)
$352.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$7.70	1/5	$11,550	$12,690	59%	71%	+$2,699	-$1,555	6.1%	$-942 (vs do-nothing $-1,707)
$352.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$9.60	2/5	$6,400	$7,255	58%	70%	+$1,190	-$2,731	10.7%	$-2,269 (vs do-nothing $-3,035)
$352.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.95	4/5	$8,212	$8,498	58%	70%	+$1,479	-$4,921	19.3%	$-4,764 (vs do-nothing $-5,529)
$350	2d	24 Jul 2026	$8.75	1/5	$13,125	$14,265	55%	69%	+$2,676	-$1,700	6.7%	$-1,087 (vs do-nothing $-1,852)
$350	9d	31 Jul 2026	$10.75	2/5	$7,167	$8,022	55%	69%	+$1,238	-$3,001	11.8%	$-2,539 (vs do-nothing $-3,305)
$350	16d	7 Aug 2026	$12.10	3/5	$6,806	$7,376	55%	69%	+$1,146	-$4,096	16.1%	$-3,786 (vs do-nothing $-4,552)
$350	23d	14 Aug 2026	$13.45	4/5	$7,017	$7,302	55%	69%	+$1,210	-$4,921	19.3%	$-4,764 (vs do-nothing $-5,529)
$347.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.45	3/5	$7,566	$8,136	52%	67%	+$1,244	-$4,441	17.4%	$-4,131 (vs do-nothing $-4,897)
$347.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$11.95	2/5	$7,967	$8,822	51%	67%	+$1,253	-$3,261	12.8%	$-2,799 (vs do-nothing $-3,565)
$347.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$9.95	1/5	$14,925	$16,065	50%	78%	+$8,280	-$1,830	7.2%	$-1,217 (vs do-nothing $-1,982)
$345	23d	14 Aug 2026	$15.95	3/5	$6,241	$6,811	49%	66%	+$932	-$4,441	17.4%	$-4,131 (vs do-nothing $-4,897)
$345	16d	7 Aug 2026	$14.70	3/5	$8,269	$8,839	49%	66%	+$1,235	-$4,816	18.9%	$-4,506 (vs do-nothing $-5,272)
$345	9d	31 Jul 2026	$13.20	2/5	$8,800	$9,655	47%	67%	+$1,772	-$3,511	13.8%	$-3,049 (vs do-nothing $-3,815)
$342.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$15.95	3/5	$8,972	$9,542	45%	65%	+$1,174	-$5,191	20.4%	$-4,881 (vs do-nothing $-5,647)
$342.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$14.55	2/5	$9,700	$10,555	45%	64%	+$1,216	-$3,741	14.7%	$-3,279 (vs do-nothing $-4,045)
$345	2d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	1/5	$16,800	$17,940	42%	76%	+$8,098	-$1,955	7.7%	$-1,342 (vs do-nothing $-2,107)
$342.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$12.55	1/5	$18,825	$19,965	35%	73%	+$7,727	-$2,070	8.1%	$-1,457 (vs do-nothing $-2,222)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 23:04