FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $347.12

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.90 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $347.12 UNDERWATER $50.88 (12.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.90 (banked floor $368.83) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$13,050/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,177/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,400	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,525/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$13,050/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $375.90 (probe: $375C 15d) still earns $4,100/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,411

was $11,400 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$375.90 → $368.83

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 31 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.49 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.16 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $375.90 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $380 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

88%

Touch odds

25%

Per cycle

$1,135

Income / mo

$4,256

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.36/sh now → $9.45 mid-life (likely $8.71–$14.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 543 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $386 (overshoots $6.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.97/sh	+$984 cycle +$2,119 [+$600…+$1,772] · 95% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$383	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.41/sh	+$1,206 cycle +$2,341 [+$665…+$2,121] · 93% credit	69% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$383	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.70/sh	+$352 cycle +$1,487 [-$126…+$1,078] · 69% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$388	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.27/sh	+$135 cycle +$1,270 [-$625…+$917] · 52% credit	72% surv 61%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$393	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.59/sh	-$795 cycle +$340 [-$1,752…-$190] · 22% credit	75% surv 67%
budget: banked $1,135 debit $795 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$340 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,548/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $390 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$900

Income / mo

$1,800

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$388	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.63/sh	+$817 cycle +$1,717 [+$704…+$1,868] · 99% credit	66% surv 48%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.65/sh	+$327 cycle +$1,227 [+$158…+$1,317] · 83% credit	67% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$393	14 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.65/sh	-$323 cycle +$577 [-$602…+$585] · 45% credit	69% surv 56%
budget: banked $900 debit $323 (36% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$577 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,181/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $430 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $430)

99%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$60

Income / mo

$225

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$430	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.46/sh	+$230 cycle +$290	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$430	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$122 cycle +$182	67% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$433	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.60/sh	+$298 cycle +$358	69% surv 55%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (24 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.794 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,424 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $784

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$370	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	5/5	$7,500	$7,500	80%	84%	+$3,302	-$948	3.7%	$-924 (vs do-nothing $-1,708)
$367.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.55	4/5	$6,825	$7,129	78%	82%	+$2,804	-$1,539	6.0%	$-1,362 (vs do-nothing $-2,147)
$365	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$7,800	$8,104	75%	80%	+$3,011	-$2,279	8.9%	$-2,102 (vs do-nothing $-2,887)
$362.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.85	3/5	$6,581	$7,189	72%	79%	+$2,328	-$2,264	8.9%	$-1,936 (vs do-nothing $-2,720)
$362.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/5	$7,250	$7,250	70%	77%	+$2,223	-$3,073	12.1%	$-3,049 (vs do-nothing $-3,833)
$360	8d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	3/5	$7,481	$8,089	69%	77%	+$2,473	-$2,774	10.9%	$-2,446 (vs do-nothing $-3,230)
$360	15d	7 Aug 2026	$8.10	5/5	$8,100	$8,100	67%	75%	+$2,348	-$3,898	15.3%	$-3,874 (vs do-nothing $-4,658)
$357.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$7.45	3/5	$8,381	$8,989	66%	75%	+$2,520	-$3,284	12.9%	$-2,956 (vs do-nothing $-3,740)
$357.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$9.00	4/5	$7,200	$7,504	64%	74%	+$1,956	-$3,759	14.7%	$-3,582 (vs do-nothing $-4,367)
$355	8d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	3/5	$9,450	$10,058	63%	73%	+$2,631	-$3,749	14.7%	$-3,421 (vs do-nothing $-4,205)
$355	15d	7 Aug 2026	$9.95	4/5	$7,960	$8,264	61%	72%	+$2,008	-$4,379	17.2%	$-4,202 (vs do-nothing $-4,987)
$355	22d	14 Aug 2026	$11.20	5/5	$7,636	$7,636	61%	72%	+$1,841	-$4,848	19.0%	$-4,824 (vs do-nothing $-5,608)
$352.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$9.40	2/5	$7,050	$7,962	59%	72%	+$1,793	-$2,799	11.0%	$-2,319 (vs do-nothing $-3,103)

Show 11 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$352.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$10.95	3/5	$6,570	$7,178	58%	71%	+$1,524	-$3,734	14.6%	$-3,406 (vs do-nothing $-4,190)
$350	8d	31 Jul 2026	$10.55	2/5	$7,912	$8,824	56%	70%	+$1,869	-$3,069	12.0%	$-2,589 (vs do-nothing $-3,373)
$350	15d	7 Aug 2026	$12.05	3/5	$7,230	$7,838	55%	69%	+$1,550	-$4,154	16.3%	$-3,826 (vs do-nothing $-4,610)
$350	22d	14 Aug 2026	$13.35	4/5	$7,282	$7,586	55%	69%	+$1,520	-$5,019	19.7%	$-4,842 (vs do-nothing $-5,627)
$347.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$13.05	3/5	$7,830	$8,438	52%	68%	+$1,370	-$4,604	18.1%	$-4,276 (vs do-nothing $-5,060)
$347.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	2/5	$8,738	$9,650	52%	68%	+$1,831	-$3,349	13.1%	$-2,869 (vs do-nothing $-3,653)
$345	22d	14 Aug 2026	$15.55	4/5	$8,482	$8,786	50%	67%	+$1,412	-$6,139	24.1%	$-5,962 (vs do-nothing $-6,747)
$345	15d	7 Aug 2026	$14.50	3/5	$8,700	$9,308	49%	67%	+$1,587	-$4,919	19.3%	$-4,591 (vs do-nothing $-5,375)
$345	8d	31 Jul 2026	$12.95	2/5	$9,712	$10,624	49%	67%	+$1,866	-$3,589	14.1%	$-3,109 (vs do-nothing $-3,893)
$342.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$15.55	3/5	$9,330	$9,938	46%	65%	+$1,402	-$5,354	21.0%	$-5,026 (vs do-nothing $-5,810)
$342.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$13.85	2/5	$10,388	$11,300	45%	65%	+$1,521	-$3,909	15.3%	$-3,429 (vs do-nothing $-4,213)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 01:47