FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $346.88

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.77 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $346.88 UNDERWATER $51.12 (12.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.77 (banked floor $368.69) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$12,950/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,184/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-11,438	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,475/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$12,950/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $375.77 (probe: $375C 15d) still earns $4,050/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

$8,448

was $11,438 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$375.77 → $368.69

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 50 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 30 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.49 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.17 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $375.77 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $380 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

88%

Touch odds

24%

Per cycle

$1,115

Income / mo

$4,181

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.51/sh now → $9.55 mid-life (likely $8.77–$14.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 552 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $386 (overshoots $6.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.85/sh	+$925 cycle +$2,040 [+$570…+$1,747] · 97% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$383	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.15/sh	+$1,075 cycle +$2,190 [+$520…+$1,979] · 91% credit	69% surv 56%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$383	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.28/sh	+$141 cycle +$1,256 [-$398…+$864] · 57% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$388	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.01/sh	+$6 cycle +$1,121 [-$761…+$761] · 48% credit	72% surv 62%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$393	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.84/sh	-$922 cycle +$193 [-$1,871…-$340] · 20% credit	75% surv 67%
budget: banked $1,115 debit $922 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$193 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,424/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $390 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$900

Income / mo

$1,800

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$388	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.52/sh	+$762 cycle +$1,662 [+$658…+$1,823] · 99% credit	66% surv 49%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.61/sh	+$305 cycle +$1,205 [+$131…+$1,328] · 82% credit	68% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$393	14 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.88/sh	-$438 cycle +$462 [-$712…+$467] · 40% credit	70% surv 56%
budget: banked $900 debit $438 (49% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$462 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,015/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $430 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $430)

99%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$60

Income / mo

$225

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$430	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.29/sh	+$147 cycle +$207	67% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$433	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$153 cycle +$213	69% surv 56%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.792 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,441 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $703

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$370	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.95	5/5	$7,406	$7,406	80%	84%	+$3,318	-$908	3.6%	$-905 (vs do-nothing $-1,608)
$367.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.45	4/5	$6,675	$6,955	78%	82%	+$2,755	-$1,526	6.0%	$-1,383 (vs do-nothing $-2,086)
$362.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.75	4/5	$8,625	$8,905	76%	83%	+$4,818	-$3,006	11.8%	$-2,863 (vs do-nothing $-3,566)
$365	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.05	4/5	$7,575	$7,855	75%	81%	+$2,902	-$2,286	9.0%	$-2,143 (vs do-nothing $-2,846)
$360	8d	31 Jul 2026	$6.55	3/5	$7,369	$7,929	72%	81%	+$3,869	-$2,765	10.8%	$-2,482 (vs do-nothing $-3,185)
$362.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.15	5/5	$7,150	$7,150	70%	77%	+$2,200	-$3,058	12.0%	$-3,055 (vs do-nothing $-3,758)
$357.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$7.35	3/5	$8,269	$8,829	69%	79%	+$4,016	-$3,275	12.8%	$-2,992 (vs do-nothing $-3,695)
$360	15d	7 Aug 2026	$8.00	5/5	$8,000	$8,000	67%	76%	+$2,336	-$3,883	15.2%	$-3,880 (vs do-nothing $-4,583)
$357.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$8.85	4/5	$7,080	$7,360	65%	74%	+$1,916	-$3,766	14.8%	$-3,623 (vs do-nothing $-4,326)
$355	8d	31 Jul 2026	$8.30	3/5	$9,338	$9,898	63%	73%	+$2,537	-$3,740	14.7%	$-3,457 (vs do-nothing $-4,160)
$355	15d	7 Aug 2026	$9.80	4/5	$7,840	$8,120	62%	73%	+$1,978	-$4,386	17.2%	$-4,243 (vs do-nothing $-4,946)
$355	22d	14 Aug 2026	$11.05	5/5	$7,534	$7,534	61%	72%	+$1,848	-$4,858	19.1%	$-4,855 (vs do-nothing $-5,558)
$352.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$9.30	2/5	$6,975	$7,815	59%	71%	+$1,707	-$2,793	11.0%	$-2,370 (vs do-nothing $-3,073)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$352.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$10.45	4/5	$8,360	$8,640	59%	71%	+$1,733	-$5,126	20.1%	$-4,983 (vs do-nothing $-5,686)
$350	8d	31 Jul 2026	$10.35	2/5	$7,762	$8,602	56%	70%	+$1,760	-$3,083	12.1%	$-2,660 (vs do-nothing $-3,363)
$350	15d	7 Aug 2026	$11.70	3/5	$7,020	$7,580	56%	70%	+$1,423	-$4,220	16.5%	$-3,937 (vs do-nothing $-4,640)
$350	22d	14 Aug 2026	$13.20	4/5	$7,200	$7,480	56%	70%	+$1,537	-$5,026	19.7%	$-4,883 (vs do-nothing $-5,586)
$347.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$12.95	3/5	$7,770	$8,330	53%	68%	+$1,491	-$4,595	18.0%	$-4,312 (vs do-nothing $-5,015)
$347.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$11.55	2/5	$8,662	$9,502	53%	68%	+$1,734	-$3,343	13.1%	$-2,920 (vs do-nothing $-3,623)
$345	22d	14 Aug 2026	$15.55	4/5	$8,482	$8,762	50%	67%	+$1,524	-$6,086	23.9%	$-5,943 (vs do-nothing $-6,646)
$345	15d	7 Aug 2026	$14.25	3/5	$8,550	$9,110	49%	67%	+$1,534	-$4,955	19.4%	$-4,672 (vs do-nothing $-5,375)
$345	8d	31 Jul 2026	$12.75	2/5	$9,562	$10,402	49%	67%	+$1,710	-$3,603	14.1%	$-3,180 (vs do-nothing $-3,883)
$342.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$15.45	3/5	$9,270	$9,830	46%	66%	+$1,459	-$5,345	21.0%	$-5,062 (vs do-nothing $-5,765)
$342.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$14.00	2/5	$10,500	$11,340	45%	65%	+$1,661	-$3,853	15.1%	$-3,430 (vs do-nothing $-4,133)
$340	22d	14 Aug 2026	$17.90	3/5	$7,323	$7,883	44%	65%	+$993	-$5,360	21.0%	$-5,077 (vs do-nothing $-5,780)
$340	15d	7 Aug 2026	$16.35	2/5	$6,540	$7,380	43%	64%	+$766	-$3,883	15.2%	$-3,460 (vs do-nothing $-4,163)
$340	8d	31 Jul 2026	$15.45	2/5	$11,588	$12,428	42%	64%	+$1,699	-$4,063	15.9%	$-3,640 (vs do-nothing $-4,343)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 01:53