5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $377.63 (banked floor $310.99) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $8,400/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,172/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $332.50 | 79% | $4,350 | $1,159 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $342.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 7.7% | 90% | 20% | · | $490 | $1,838 | -$2,512 | $17,074 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $342.50 7.7% OTM over spot $318.10 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.09 mid) = $490 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,838/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $342.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $343.60) 91% EV / mo +$871 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,435 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $354 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.27/sh now → $5.85 mid-life (likely $4.60–$8.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 297 simulated challenges: the $342 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $346 (overshoots $3.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $342.50 is $35 below CC-SS $377.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $343.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $342)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $376.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $377.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,656 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $342.50): -$17,074 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,018 (+$3,582 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,894 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,124, the opportunity cost of earning $1,838/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $337.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 6.1% | 85% | 29% | · | $750 | $2,812 | -$1,537 | $19,314 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $337.50 6.1% OTM over spot $318.10 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.59 mid) = $750 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $337.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $339.10) 87% EV / mo +$1,162 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,132 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $349 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.15/sh now → $5.76 mid-life (likely $5.18–$8.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 536 simulated challenges: the $338 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $341 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $337.50 is $40 below CC-SS $377.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.50 collected) or spot ≥ $339.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $338)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $376.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $377.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,656 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $337.50): -$19,314 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,258 (+$1,342 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,894 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,364, the opportunity cost of earning $2,812/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $332.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 4.5% | 79% | 30% | · | $1,160 | $4,350 | — | $21,404 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $332.50 4.5% OTM over spot $318.10 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.42 mid) = $1,160 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $332.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $334.92) 83% EV / mo +$1,531 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,679 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $349 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.03/sh now → $5.68 mid-life (likely $5.70–$9.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 899 simulated challenges: the $332 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $336 (overshoots $3.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $332.50 is $45 below CC-SS $377.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.32 collected) or spot ≥ $334.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $332)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $376.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $377.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,656 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $332.50): -$21,404 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,348 ($-748 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,894 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,454, the opportunity cost of earning $4,350/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $322.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 1.4% | 61% | 80% | · | $2,550 | $9,562 | +$5,213 | $25,014 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $322.50 1.4% OTM over spot $318.10 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $5.32 mid) = $2,550 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $322.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $327.82) 72% EV / mo +$1,957 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$204 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $354 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.79/sh now → $5.51 mid-life (likely $7.16–$10.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,888 simulated challenges: the $322 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $326 (overshoots $3.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $322.50 is $55 below CC-SS $377.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.27/sh (~25% of the $5.10 collected) or spot ≥ $327.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $322)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $376.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $377.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,656 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $322.50): -$25,014 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,958 ($-4,358 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,894 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,064, the opportunity cost of earning $9,562/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.694 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,656 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,894
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $332.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 5/5 | $4,350 | $4,350 | 79% | 83% | +$1,531 | -$21,404 | 83.9% | $-23,348 (vs do-nothing $-21,454) |
| $330 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 4/5 | $4,290 | $4,310 | 75% | 80% | +$1,363 | -$17,908 | 70.2% | $-19,841 (vs do-nothing $-17,948) |
| $327.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 4/5 | $5,100 | $5,120 | 71% | 77% | +$1,330 | -$18,692 | 73.3% | $-20,625 (vs do-nothing $-18,732) |
| $330 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 5/5 | $4,750 | $4,750 | 71% | 77% | +$1,471 | -$21,439 | 84.1% | $-23,383 (vs do-nothing $-21,489) |
| $327.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 4/5 | $4,280 | $4,300 | 67% | 75% | +$1,106 | -$17,912 | 70.2% | $-19,845 (vs do-nothing $-17,952) |
| $325 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 3/5 | $4,725 | $4,765 | 66% | 74% | +$1,114 | -$14,529 | 57.0% | $-16,452 (vs do-nothing $-14,559) |
| $325 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.30 | 4/5 | $5,040 | $5,060 | 63% | 73% | +$1,223 | -$18,532 | 72.7% | $-20,465 (vs do-nothing $-18,572) |
| $325 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.85 | 4/5 | $4,282 | $4,302 | 62% | 72% | +$977 | -$17,912 | 70.2% | $-19,845 (vs do-nothing $-17,952) |
| $322.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $5,738 | $5,778 | 61% | 72% | +$1,174 | -$15,009 | 58.9% | $-16,932 (vs do-nothing $-15,039) |
| $322.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.25 | 3/5 | $4,350 | $4,390 | 59% | 71% | +$931 | -$14,364 | 56.3% | $-16,287 (vs do-nothing $-14,394) |
| $320 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 2/5 | $4,725 | $4,785 | 56% | 70% | +$1,180 | -$10,266 | 40.3% | $-12,179 (vs do-nothing $-10,286) |
| $320 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.40 | 3/5 | $5,040 | $5,080 | 55% | 69% | +$966 | -$14,769 | 57.9% | $-16,692 (vs do-nothing $-14,799) |
| $320 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.05 | 4/5 | $5,482 | $5,502 | 55% | 69% | +$1,059 | -$19,032 | 74.6% | $-20,965 (vs do-nothing $-19,072) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $315 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.65 | 3/5 | $5,175 | $5,215 | 47% | 66% | +$823 | -$14,994 | 58.8% | $-16,917 (vs do-nothing $-15,024) |
| $315 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.95 | 2/5 | $4,380 | $4,440 | 46% | 65% | +$663 | -$10,336 | 40.5% | $-12,249 (vs do-nothing $-10,356) |
| $315 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 2/5 | $6,712 | $6,772 | 44% | 65% | +$1,262 | -$10,736 | 42.1% | $-12,649 (vs do-nothing $-10,756) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.