5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $377.54 (banked floor $310.97) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $9,054/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,177/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,988 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $330 | 75% | $4,646 | $1,523 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $342.50 | 31 Jul | 7d | 7.1% | 92% | 17% | · | $395 | $1,693 | -$2,953 | $17,127 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $342.50 7.1% OTM over spot $319.89 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.84 mid) = $395 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,693/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $342.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $343.34) 92% EV / mo +$961 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,165 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $358 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.24/sh now → $5.12 mid-life (likely $4.22–$7.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 281 simulated challenges: the $342 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $346 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $342.50 is $35 below CC-SS $377.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $343.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $342)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $378.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $377.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,988 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,294 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $342.50): -$17,127 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,820 (+$3,167 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,688 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,132, the opportunity cost of earning $1,693/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $335 | 31 Jul | 7d | 4.7% | 84% | 33% | · | $810 | $3,471 | -$1,174 | $20,462 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $335 4.7% OTM over spot $319.89 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.70 mid) = $810 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,471/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $335) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $336.70) 86% EV / mo +$1,618 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,694 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $355 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.08/sh now → $5.01 mid-life (likely $4.81–$8.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 687 simulated challenges: the $335 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $338 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $335 is $43 below CC-SS $377.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.62 collected) or spot ≥ $336.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $335)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $378.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $377.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,988 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,294 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $335): -$20,462 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,155 ($-168 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,688 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,467, the opportunity cost of earning $3,471/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $330 | 31 Jul | 7d | 3.2% | 75% | 37% | · | $1,084 | $4,646 | — | $17,933 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $330 3.2% OTM over spot $319.89 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.80 mid) = $1,084 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,646/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $330) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $332.81) 81% EV / mo +$1,881 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$889 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $358 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.98/sh now → $4.93 mid-life (likely $5.37–$8.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,108 simulated challenges: the $330 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $333 (overshoots $3.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $330 is $48 below CC-SS $377.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.68/sh (~25% of the $2.71 collected) or spot ≥ $332.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $330)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $378.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $377.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,988 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,294 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $330): -$17,933 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,626 (+$2,362 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,688 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,937, the opportunity cost of earning $4,646/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $322.50 | 31 Jul | 7d | 0.8% | 58% | 86% | · | $2,550 | $10,929 | +$6,283 | $24,972 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $322.50 0.8% OTM over spot $319.89 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.30 mid) = $2,550 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $322.50) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $327.80) 71% EV / mo +$2,721 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$140 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $355 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.82/sh now → $4.82 mid-life (likely $6.41–$9.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,070 simulated challenges: the $322 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $326 (overshoots $3.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $322.50 is $55 below CC-SS $377.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.27/sh (~25% of the $5.10 collected) or spot ≥ $327.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $322)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $378.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $377.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,988 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,294 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $322.50): -$24,972 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,665 ($-4,678 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,688 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,977, the opportunity cost of earning $10,929/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.704 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,294 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,688
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $330 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 4/5 | $4,646 | $4,647 | 75% | 81% | +$1,881 | -$17,933 | 70.3% | $-19,626 (vs do-nothing $-17,937) |
| $327.50 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 4/5 | $5,657 | $5,659 | 70% | 77% | +$1,922 | -$18,697 | 73.3% | $-20,390 (vs do-nothing $-18,701) |
| $327.50 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $5,518 | $5,518 | 66% | 75% | +$1,427 | -$22,447 | 88.0% | $-24,140 (vs do-nothing $-22,452) |
| $325 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 3/5 | $5,207 | $5,210 | 64% | 74% | +$1,465 | -$14,548 | 57.1% | $-16,240 (vs do-nothing $-14,551) |
| $325 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 4/5 | $5,229 | $5,230 | 61% | 72% | +$1,221 | -$18,577 | 72.9% | $-20,270 (vs do-nothing $-18,581) |
| $325 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.65 | 5/5 | $5,464 | $5,464 | 60% | 71% | +$1,109 | -$22,447 | 88.0% | $-24,140 (vs do-nothing $-22,452) |
| $325 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.35 | 5/5 | $5,009 | $5,009 | 59% | 72% | +$1,225 | -$21,597 | 84.7% | $-23,290 (vs do-nothing $-21,602) |
| $322.50 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $6,557 | $6,560 | 58% | 71% | +$1,633 | -$14,983 | 58.8% | $-16,675 (vs do-nothing $-14,986) |
| $322.50 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.30 | 3/5 | $4,693 | $4,696 | 56% | 70% | +$1,045 | -$14,323 | 56.2% | $-16,015 (vs do-nothing $-14,326) |
| $322.50 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.50 | 5/5 | $5,625 | $5,625 | 55% | 70% | +$1,273 | -$22,272 | 87.3% | $-23,965 (vs do-nothing $-22,277) |
| $320 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $11.80 | 4/5 | $5,057 | $5,059 | 52% | 68% | +$1,073 | -$18,297 | 71.8% | $-19,990 (vs do-nothing $-18,301) |
| $320 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.25 | 4/5 | $5,857 | $5,859 | 52% | 68% | +$1,101 | -$18,917 | 74.2% | $-20,610 (vs do-nothing $-18,921) |
| $320 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 3/5 | $5,432 | $5,435 | 51% | 68% | +$1,046 | -$14,728 | 57.8% | $-16,420 (vs do-nothing $-14,731) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $320 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 2/5 | $5,400 | $5,404 | 51% | 68% | +$1,153 | -$10,249 | 40.2% | $-11,939 (vs do-nothing $-10,251) |
| $315 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $14.50 | 3/5 | $4,661 | $4,664 | 45% | 65% | +$810 | -$14,413 | 56.5% | $-16,105 (vs do-nothing $-14,416) |
| $315 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.90 | 3/5 | $5,529 | $5,531 | 44% | 65% | +$795 | -$14,893 | 58.4% | $-16,585 (vs do-nothing $-14,896) |
| $315 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.25 | 2/5 | $4,821 | $4,826 | 42% | 64% | +$719 | -$10,259 | 40.2% | $-11,949 (vs do-nothing $-10,261) |
| $315 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.20 | 2/5 | $7,886 | $7,890 | 38% | 63% | +$1,172 | -$10,669 | 41.8% | $-12,359 (vs do-nothing $-10,671) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.