5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $383.65 (banked floor $322.12) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,450/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,266/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,525 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 8d | 5 × $337.50 | 77% | $3,956 | $1,313 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $347.50 | 18 Sep | 8d | 6.3% | 90%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | · | $400 | $1,500 | -$2,456 | $17,676 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $347.50 6.3% OTM over spot $326.83 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.82 mid) = $400 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $347.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $348.32) 91% EV / mo +$759 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,949 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $356 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.64/sh now → $4.70 mid-life (likely $3.86–$6.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 349 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $351 (overshoots $3.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $347.50 is $36 below CC-SS $383.65: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $348.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $348)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.65, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $347.50): -$17,676 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,518 (+$3,007 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,787 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,731, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,785, position total $-21,451 (+$1,074 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $340 | 18 Sep | 8d | 4.0% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 31% | · | $810 | $3,038 | -$919 | $21,016 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $340 4.0% OTM over spot $326.83 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.69 mid) = $810 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,038/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $340) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $341.69) 83% EV / mo +$918 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,488 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $353 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.50/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $4.42–$7.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 813 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $343 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $340 is $44 below CC-SS $383.65: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.62 collected) or spot ≥ $341.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $340)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.65, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $340): -$21,016 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,858 ($-333 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,787 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,071, the opportunity cost of earning $3,038/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,125, position total $-24,791 ($-2,266 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $337.50 | 18 Sep | 8d | 3.3% | 77%hist 83% | 47%hist 39% | · | $1,055 | $3,956 | — | $22,021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $337.50 3.3% OTM over spot $326.83 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $2.21 mid) = $1,055 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,956/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $337.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $339.71) 81% EV / mo +$1,186 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,226 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $356 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.45/sh now → $4.56 mid-life (likely $4.93–$7.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,062 simulated challenges: the $338 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $341 (overshoots $3.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $337.50 is $46 below CC-SS $383.65: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.11 collected) or spot ≥ $339.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $338)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.65, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $337.50): -$22,021 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,863 ($-1,338 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,787 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,076, the opportunity cost of earning $3,956/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,130, position total $-25,796 ($-3,271 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $330 | 18 Sep | 8d | 1.0% | 59%hist 70% | 83%hist 79% | · | $2,175 | $8,156 | +$4,200 | $24,651 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $330 1.0% OTM over spot $326.83 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $4.47 mid) = $2,175 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,156/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $330) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $334.48) 70% EV / mo +$1,396 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$55 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $363 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.31/sh now → $4.46 mid-life (likely $5.90–$8.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,985 simulated challenges: the $330 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $333 (overshoots $3.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $330 is $54 below CC-SS $383.65: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.09/sh (~25% of the $4.35 collected) or spot ≥ $334.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $330)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.65, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $330): -$24,651 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,493 ($-3,968 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,787 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,706, the opportunity cost of earning $8,156/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,760, position total $-28,426 ($-5,901 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.728 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,683 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,787
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $337.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.11 | 5/5 | $3,956 | $3,956 | 77% | 81% | +$1,186 | -$22,021 | 86.4% | $-23,863 (vs do-nothing $-22,076) |
| $335 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.71 | 4/5 | $4,065 | $4,087 | 71% | 77% | +$1,024 | -$18,377 | 72.1% | $-20,208 (vs do-nothing $-18,421) |
| $335 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.50 | 5/5 | $4,500 | $4,500 | 67% | 75% | +$1,082 | -$22,076 | 86.6% | $-23,918 (vs do-nothing $-22,131) |
| $332.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.40 | 3/5 | $3,825 | $3,869 | 66% | 74% | +$748 | -$14,326 | 56.2% | $-16,145 (vs do-nothing $-14,359) |
| $335 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.20 | 5/5 | $4,227 | $4,227 | 65% | 74% | +$1,000 | -$21,226 | 83.2% | $-23,068 (vs do-nothing $-21,281) |
| $332.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.25 | 4/5 | $4,200 | $4,222 | 62% | 72% | +$831 | -$18,361 | 72.0% | $-20,192 (vs do-nothing $-18,405) |
| $330 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.35 | 3/5 | $4,894 | $4,938 | 59% | 70% | +$837 | -$14,791 | 58.0% | $-16,610 (vs do-nothing $-14,824) |
| $330 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.40 | 3/5 | $3,840 | $3,884 | 58% | 70% | +$752 | -$14,176 | 55.6% | $-15,995 (vs do-nothing $-14,209) |
| $330 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.30 | 4/5 | $4,527 | $4,549 | 57% | 70% | +$935 | -$18,141 | 71.1% | $-19,972 (vs do-nothing $-18,185) |
| $327.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.55 | 2/5 | $4,162 | $4,228 | 53% | 68% | +$706 | -$10,120 | 39.7% | $-11,929 (vs do-nothing $-10,142) |
| $327.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.45 | 3/5 | $4,470 | $4,514 | 53% | 68% | +$727 | -$14,611 | 57.3% | $-16,430 (vs do-nothing $-14,644) |
| $325 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.50 | 3/5 | $4,295 | $4,339 | 48% | 66% | +$636 | -$14,446 | 56.6% | $-16,265 (vs do-nothing $-14,479) |
| $325 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.65 | 3/5 | $5,190 | $5,234 | 47% | 65% | +$697 | -$15,001 | 58.8% | $-16,820 (vs do-nothing $-15,034) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $325 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.60 | 2/5 | $4,950 | $5,016 | 46% | 64% | +$493 | -$10,410 | 40.8% | $-12,219 (vs do-nothing $-10,432) |
| $322.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.95 | 2/5 | $3,980 | $4,046 | 42% | 63% | +$420 | -$10,240 | 40.2% | $-12,049 (vs do-nothing $-10,262) |
| $322.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $8.00 | 2/5 | $6,000 | $6,066 | 39% | 61% | +$380 | -$10,630 | 41.7% | $-12,439 (vs do-nothing $-10,652) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.