5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $383.91 (banked floor $322.59) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,889/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,656/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,438 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 7d | 5 × $345 | 76% | $4,157 | $1,368 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $355 | 18 Sep | 7d | 5.7% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | · | $345 | $1,479 | -$2,679 | $14,109 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 5.7% OTM over spot $335.87 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.72 mid) = $345 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,479/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $355.72) 92% EV / mo +$775 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,686 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $369 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.75/sh now → $4.06 mid-life (likely $3.22–$5.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 292 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $358 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $29 below CC-SS $383.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $355.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,374 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$14,109 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,172 (+$4,266 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,189, the opportunity cost of earning $1,479/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.23 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,770, position total $-16,737 (+$2,700 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $350 | 18 Sep | 7d | 4.2% | 85%hist 86% | 30%hist 31% | · | $555 | $2,379 | -$1,779 | $16,399 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $350 4.2% OTM over spot $335.87 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.18 mid) = $555 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,379/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $350) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $351.18) 87% EV / mo +$959 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,448 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $369 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.66/sh now → $4.01 mid-life (likely $3.73–$6.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 641 simulated challenges: the $350 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $353 (overshoots $3.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $350 is $34 below CC-SS $383.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $351.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $350)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,374 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $350): -$16,399 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,462 (+$1,976 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,479, the opportunity cost of earning $2,379/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.23 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,060, position total $-19,027 (+$410 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $345 | 18 Sep | 7d | 2.7% | 76%hist 83% | 49%hist 39% | · | $970 | $4,157 | — | $18,484 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $345 2.7% OTM over spot $335.87 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $2.01 mid) = $970 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,157/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $345) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $347.01) 80% EV / mo +$1,251 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,004 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $369 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.58/sh now → $3.95 mid-life (likely $4.23–$6.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,079 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $348 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $345 is $39 below CC-SS $383.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.94 collected) or spot ≥ $347.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $345)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,374 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $345): -$18,484 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,547 ($-109 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,564, the opportunity cost of earning $4,157/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.23 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,145, position total $-21,112 ($-1,675 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $340 | 18 Sep | 7d | 1.2% | 63%hist 65% | 74%hist 64% | · | $1,650 | $7,071 | +$2,914 | $20,304 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $340 1.2% OTM over spot $335.87 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $3.45 mid) = $1,650 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,071/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $340) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $343.45) 73% EV / mo +$1,440 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$295 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $374 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.50/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $4.86–$6.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,779 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $343 (overshoots $2.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $340 is $44 below CC-SS $383.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $343.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $340)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,374 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $340): -$20,304 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,367 ($-1,929 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,384, the opportunity cost of earning $7,071/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.23 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,965, position total $-22,932 ($-3,495 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.765 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,374 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-983
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $345 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.94 | 5/5 | $4,157 | $4,157 | 76% | 80% | +$1,251 | -$18,484 | 72.5% | $-19,547 (vs do-nothing $-18,564) |
| $342.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.54 | 4/5 | $4,354 | $4,389 | 70% | 76% | +$1,096 | -$15,547 | 61.0% | $-16,594 (vs do-nothing $-15,611) |
| $345 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.45 | 5/5 | $3,696 | $3,696 | 70% | 77% | +$780 | -$17,729 | 69.5% | $-18,792 (vs do-nothing $-17,809) |
| $345 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.05 | 5/5 | $3,607 | $3,607 | 67% | 75% | +$749 | -$16,929 | 66.4% | $-17,992 (vs do-nothing $-17,009) |
| $342.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.45 | 4/5 | $3,814 | $3,849 | 65% | 74% | +$860 | -$14,783 | 58.0% | $-15,830 (vs do-nothing $-14,847) |
| $345 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.00 | 5/5 | $3,750 | $3,750 | 65% | 74% | +$856 | -$15,954 | 62.6% | $-17,017 (vs do-nothing $-16,034) |
| $340 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 3/5 | $4,243 | $4,311 | 63% | 73% | +$864 | -$12,182 | 47.8% | $-13,213 (vs do-nothing $-12,230) |
| $340 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.25 | 4/5 | $4,500 | $4,534 | 60% | 71% | +$793 | -$15,463 | 60.6% | $-16,510 (vs do-nothing $-15,527) |
| $340 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.85 | 4/5 | $3,914 | $3,949 | 59% | 70% | +$612 | -$14,823 | 58.1% | $-15,870 (vs do-nothing $-14,887) |
| $340 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.90 | 4/5 | $3,814 | $3,849 | 58% | 71% | +$840 | -$14,003 | 54.9% | $-15,050 (vs do-nothing $-14,067) |
| $337.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.05 | 2/5 | $3,471 | $3,574 | 56% | 68% | +$392 | -$8,471 | 33.2% | $-9,487 (vs do-nothing $-8,503) |
| $337.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.20 | 3/5 | $3,986 | $4,054 | 55% | 68% | +$535 | -$12,062 | 47.3% | $-13,093 (vs do-nothing $-12,110) |
| $335 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $11.25 | 3/5 | $3,616 | $3,685 | 50% | 67% | +$649 | -$11,297 | 44.3% | $-12,328 (vs do-nothing $-11,345) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $335 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.15 | 3/5 | $3,921 | $3,990 | 50% | 66% | +$470 | -$11,927 | 46.8% | $-12,958 (vs do-nothing $-11,975) |
| $335 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.30 | 3/5 | $4,693 | $4,761 | 49% | 66% | +$462 | -$12,482 | 48.9% | $-13,513 (vs do-nothing $-12,530) |
| $335 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 2/5 | $4,629 | $4,731 | 48% | 65% | +$496 | -$8,701 | 34.1% | $-9,717 (vs do-nothing $-8,733) |
| $332.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.65 | 2/5 | $3,707 | $3,810 | 44% | 63% | +$291 | -$8,551 | 33.5% | $-9,567 (vs do-nothing $-8,583) |
| $330 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $13.65 | 3/5 | $4,388 | $4,456 | 42% | 64% | +$540 | -$12,077 | 47.4% | $-13,108 (vs do-nothing $-12,125) |
| $330 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.85 | 3/5 | $5,079 | $5,147 | 41% | 63% | +$429 | -$12,617 | 49.5% | $-13,648 (vs do-nothing $-12,665) |
| $332.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.65 | 2/5 | $5,700 | $5,803 | 41% | 62% | +$310 | -$8,951 | 35.1% | $-9,967 (vs do-nothing $-8,983) |
| $330 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $10.55 | 2/5 | $4,521 | $4,624 | 38% | 62% | +$439 | -$8,671 | 34.0% | $-9,687 (vs do-nothing $-8,703) |
| $330 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $8.00 | 2/5 | $6,857 | $6,960 | 33% | 59% | +$41 | -$9,181 | 36.0% | $-10,197 (vs do-nothing $-9,213) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.