FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $335.87

BE SS: $398.00  |  CC-SS: $383.91  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-09-11 22:01

GOOG-LC340 @ $335.87   UNDERWATER $62.13 (15.6% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $398.00  |  CC-SS: $383.91 (banked floor $322.59)  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)
SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)
HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$48,000(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref$6,889/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,656/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-19,438fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,445/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$6,889/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $25,500
ML VELOCITY
7.0 mo to earn back $48,000
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $383.91 (probe: $385C 14d) brings only $171/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$24,503
Hole (after banked)
$0
was $19,438 · 126% earned back
Cycles closed
29
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$383.91 → $322.59
? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 24 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 40 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $397.23 (+18%) · daily UBB $346.12 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $345 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 76%, breach 24%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,445/mo); it brings $4,157/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $340/7d for $7,071/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $385/28d (94% survival, $445/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $18,484 (72% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $398, recoverable in 2.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-19,475 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 18 Sep 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $345, 76% survival, $4,157/mo (E[net] $1,368/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆18 Sep 2026 · 7d5 × $34576%$4,157$1,368
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $970 with probability 64%; on the 36% touch you roll, paying $1,974 to close and taking $1,135 back from the best priced door (net cash $839) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 18 Sep 2026 · 7d · E[net] $1,368/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $345 (50% normal), 76% survival, breach 24%, $4,157/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $350 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 24% → 15%) for $1,779/mo less (43% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $350 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GOOG to stay flat-to-down near term.
GOOG  spot $335.87 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
🛡 safe yield5 × $35518 Sep7d5.7%91%hist 96%18%hist 13%·$345$1,479-$2,679$14,109
Sell 5 × $355 5.7% OTM over spot $335.87 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.72 mid)
= $345 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,479/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $355)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $355.72)
92%
EV / mo
+$775
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,686
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)
$369 @ 78% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.75/sh now → $4.06 mid-life (likely $3.22–$5.53)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.37/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 292 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $358 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$35525 Sep 202610d left+$1.75/sh+$873
cycle +$1,218
[+$743…+$1,345] · 100% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$10,902 NOT
cap gain +$8,535
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3649 Oct 202624d left+$2.01/sh+$1,005
cycle +$1,350
[+$692…+$1,469] · 95% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$7,278 NOT
cap gain +$12,159
Max even-money escape in the band~$3699 Oct 202624d left+$0.35/sh+$176
cycle +$521
[-$234…+$572] · 59% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$6,194 NOT
cap gain +$13,243
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$35925 Sep 202610d left+$0.08/sh+$42
cycle +$387
[-$222…+$392] · 53% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$10,154 NOT
cap gain +$9,284
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,479/mo
vs 50% target ($3,445/mo)-57%
vs normal income ($6,889/mo)21% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,479/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $355 is $29 below CC-SS $383.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$14,109
… as % of IC ($25,500)55.3%
… as % of ML ($48,000)29.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-19,452
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $355.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $351.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$351-355.72
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $355.72
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$355.00 (1.5σ)$345$-11,775+$7,662+$265
+2.5%$363.87 (2.2σ)$-4,092$-12,818+$6,619-$4,172
+5%$372.75 (2.8σ)$-8,530$-13,861+$5,577-$8,610
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (4.8σ)$-21,155$-16,828+$2,610-$21,235
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.91, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,438
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,374
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$14,109
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,172 (+$4,266 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,189, the opportunity cost of earning $1,479/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $397.23 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,770, position total $-16,737 (+$2,700 vs today)
33% normal ← lean5 × $35018 Sep7d4.2%85%hist 86%30%hist 31%·$555$2,379-$1,779$16,399
Sell 5 × $350 4.2% OTM over spot $335.87 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.18 mid)
= $555 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,379/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $350)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $351.18)
87%
EV / mo
+$959
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
21%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,448
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)
$369 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.66/sh now → $4.01 mid-life (likely $3.73–$6.11)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.90/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 641 simulated challenges: the $350 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $353 (overshoots $3.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$35025 Sep 202610d left+$1.86/sh+$928
cycle +$1,483
[+$708…+$1,178] · 99% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$12,550 NOT
cap gain +$6,888
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3599 Oct 202624d left+$2.14/sh+$1,071
cycle +$1,626
[+$623…+$1,312] · 92% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$8,914 NOT
cap gain +$10,523
Max even-money escape in the band~$3649 Oct 202624d left+$0.48/sh+$238
cycle +$793
[-$342…+$425] · 49% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$7,835 NOT
cap gain +$11,603
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$35425 Sep 202610d left+$0.19/sh+$97
cycle +$652
[-$262…+$286] · 46% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$11,801 NOT
cap gain +$7,636
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3699 Oct 202624d left-$0.86/sh-$430
cycle +$125
[-$1,136…-$278] · 14% credit
82%
surv 78%
-$6,590 NOT
cap gain +$12,847
budget: banked $555 debit $430 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,966/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,379/mo
vs 50% target ($3,445/mo)-31%
vs normal income ($6,889/mo)35% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,379/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $350 is $34 below CC-SS $383.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$16,399
… as % of IC ($25,500)64.3%
… as % of ML ($48,000)34.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-19,472
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $351.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $350)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $346.50Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$346-351.18
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $351.18
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$350.00 (1.1σ)$555$-13,478+$5,960+$475
+2.5%$358.75 (1.8σ)$-3,820$-14,506+$4,932-$3,900
+5%$367.50 (2.4σ)$-8,195$-15,534+$3,903-$8,275
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (4.8σ)$-23,445$-19,118+$320-$23,525
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.91, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,438
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,374
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $350): -$16,399
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,462 (+$1,976 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,479, the opportunity cost of earning $2,379/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $397.23 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,060, position total $-19,027 (+$410 vs today)
🎯 50% normal5 × $34518 Sep7d2.7%76%hist 83%49%hist 39%·$970$4,157$18,484
Sell 5 × $345 2.7% OTM over spot $335.87 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $2.01 mid)
= $970 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,157/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $345)
76%
Breach risk
24%
POP (stays ≤ $347.01)
80%
EV / mo
+$1,251
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
36%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,004
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)
$369 @ 85% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.58/sh now → $3.95 mid-life (likely $4.23–$6.48)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.01/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,079 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $348 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$34525 Sep 202610d left+$1.96/sh+$981
cycle +$1,951
[+$677…+$1,065] · 100% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$13,994 NOT
cap gain +$5,443
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3549 Oct 202624d left+$2.27/sh+$1,135
cycle +$2,105
[+$584…+$1,175] · 95% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$10,348 NOT
cap gain +$9,089
Max even-money escape in the band~$3599 Oct 202624d left+$0.60/sh+$298
cycle +$1,268
[-$397…+$284] · 42% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$9,272 NOT
cap gain +$10,165
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$34925 Sep 202610d left+$0.30/sh+$150
cycle +$1,120
[-$286…+$177] · 39% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$13,245 NOT
cap gain +$6,192
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3699 Oct 202624d left-$1.37/sh-$687
cycle +$283
[-$1,585…-$773] · 4% credit
85%
surv 83%
-$6,433 NOT
cap gain +$13,005
budget: banked $970 debit $687 (71% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$283 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,608/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,157/mo
vs 50% target ($3,445/mo)+21%
vs normal income ($6,889/mo)60% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,157/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $345 is $39 below CC-SS $383.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$18,484
… as % of IC ($25,500)72.5%
… as % of ML ($48,000)38.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-19,475
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.94 collected) or spot ≥ $347.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $345)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $341.55Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$342-347.01
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $347.01
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$345.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$970$-14,975+$4,462+$890
+2.5%$353.62 (1.4σ)$-3,342$-15,989+$3,449-$3,422
+5%$362.25 (2.0σ)$-7,655$-17,002+$2,435-$7,735
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (4.8σ)$-25,530$-21,203-$1,765-$25,610
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.91, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,438
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,374
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $345): -$18,484
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,547 ($-109 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,564, the opportunity cost of earning $4,157/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $397.23 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,145, position total $-21,112 ($-1,675 vs today)
100% normal5 × $34018 Sep7d1.2%63%hist 65%74%hist 64%·$1,650$7,071+$2,914$20,304
Sell 5 × $340 1.2% OTM over spot $335.87 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $3.45 mid)
= $1,650 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,071/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $340)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays ≤ $343.45)
73%
EV / mo
+$1,440
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
59%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$295
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)
$374 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.50/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $4.86–$6.99)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,779 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $343 (overshoots $2.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$34025 Sep 202610d left+$2.07/sh+$1,033
cycle +$2,683
[+$644…+$944] · 100% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$15,175 NOT
cap gain +$4,262
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3499 Oct 202624d left+$2.39/sh+$1,196
cycle +$2,846
[+$499…+$981] · 94% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$11,520 NOT
cap gain +$7,918
Max even-money escape in the band~$3549 Oct 202624d left+$0.71/sh+$355
cycle +$2,005
[-$512…+$79] · 31% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$10,448 NOT
cap gain +$8,990
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$34425 Sep 202610d left+$0.40/sh+$202
cycle +$1,852
[-$337…+$25] · 28% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$14,426 NOT
cap gain +$5,011
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3749 Oct 202624d left-$2.53/sh-$1,267
cycle +$383
[-$2,549…-$1,669]
91%
surv 90%
-$4,420 NOT
cap gain +$15,017
budget: banked $1,650 debit $1,267 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$383 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $848/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,071/mo
vs 50% target ($3,445/mo)+105%
vs normal income ($6,889/mo)103% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,071/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $340 is $44 below CC-SS $383.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$20,304
… as % of IC ($25,500)79.6%
… as % of ML ($48,000)42.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-19,512
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $343.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $340)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $336.60Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$337-343.45
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $343.45
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$340.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,650$-16,208+$3,230+$1,570
+2.5%$348.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$-2,600$-17,207+$2,231-$2,680
+5%$357.00 (1.6σ)$-6,850$-18,205+$1,232-$6,930
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (4.8σ)$-27,350$-23,023-$3,585-$27,430
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.91, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,438
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,374
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $340): -$20,304
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,367 ($-1,929 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-983 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,384, the opportunity cost of earning $7,071/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $397.23 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,965, position total $-22,932 ($-3,495 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (22 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.765 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$18,374 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-983

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$3457d18 Sep 2026$1.945/5$4,157$4,15776%80%+$1,251-$18,48472.5%$-19,547 (vs do-nothing $-18,564)
$342.507d18 Sep 2026$2.544/5$4,354$4,38970%76%+$1,096-$15,54761.0%$-16,594 (vs do-nothing $-15,611)
$34514d25 Sep 2026$3.455/5$3,696$3,69670%77%+$780-$17,72969.5%$-18,792 (vs do-nothing $-17,809)
$34521d2 Oct 2026$5.055/5$3,607$3,60767%75%+$749-$16,92966.4%$-17,992 (vs do-nothing $-17,009)
$342.5014d25 Sep 2026$4.454/5$3,814$3,84965%74%+$860-$14,78358.0%$-15,830 (vs do-nothing $-14,847)
$34528d9 Oct 2026$7.005/5$3,750$3,75065%74%+$856-$15,95462.6%$-17,017 (vs do-nothing $-16,034)
$3407d18 Sep 2026$3.303/5$4,243$4,31163%73%+$864-$12,18247.8%$-13,213 (vs do-nothing $-12,230)
$34014d25 Sep 2026$5.254/5$4,500$4,53460%71%+$793-$15,46360.6%$-16,510 (vs do-nothing $-15,527)
$34021d2 Oct 2026$6.854/5$3,914$3,94959%70%+$612-$14,82358.1%$-15,870 (vs do-nothing $-14,887)
$34028d9 Oct 2026$8.904/5$3,814$3,84958%71%+$840-$14,00354.9%$-15,050 (vs do-nothing $-14,067)
$337.507d18 Sep 2026$4.052/5$3,471$3,57456%68%+$392-$8,47133.2%$-9,487 (vs do-nothing $-8,503)
$337.5014d25 Sep 2026$6.203/5$3,986$4,05455%68%+$535-$12,06247.3%$-13,093 (vs do-nothing $-12,110)
$33528d9 Oct 2026$11.253/5$3,616$3,68550%67%+$649-$11,29744.3%$-12,328 (vs do-nothing $-11,345)
Show 9 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$33521d2 Oct 2026$9.153/5$3,921$3,99050%66%+$470-$11,92746.8%$-12,958 (vs do-nothing $-11,975)
$33514d25 Sep 2026$7.303/5$4,693$4,76149%66%+$462-$12,48248.9%$-13,513 (vs do-nothing $-12,530)
$3357d18 Sep 2026$5.402/5$4,629$4,73148%65%+$496-$8,70134.1%$-9,717 (vs do-nothing $-8,733)
$332.5014d25 Sep 2026$8.652/5$3,707$3,81044%63%+$291-$8,55133.5%$-9,567 (vs do-nothing $-8,583)
$33028d9 Oct 2026$13.653/5$4,388$4,45642%64%+$540-$12,07747.4%$-13,108 (vs do-nothing $-12,125)
$33021d2 Oct 2026$11.853/5$5,079$5,14741%63%+$429-$12,61749.5%$-13,648 (vs do-nothing $-12,665)
$332.507d18 Sep 2026$6.652/5$5,700$5,80341%62%+$310-$8,95135.1%$-9,967 (vs do-nothing $-8,983)
$33014d25 Sep 2026$10.552/5$4,521$4,62438%62%+$439-$8,67134.0%$-9,687 (vs do-nothing $-8,703)
$3307d18 Sep 2026$8.002/5$6,857$6,96033%59%+$41-$9,18136.0%$-10,197 (vs do-nothing $-9,213)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-09-11 22:01