5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $384.21 (banked floor $323.05) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $9,682/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,527/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,425 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 4d | 5 × $352.50 | 82% | $5,850 | $3,317 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 11d | 5 × $350 | 69% | $5,727 | $151 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $360 | 18 Sep | 4d | 5.4% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | · | $315 | $2,362 | -$3,488 | $11,789 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 5.4% OTM over spot $341.65 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.65 mid) = $315 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,362/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $360.65) 93% EV / mo +$1,503 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,723 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $378 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.77/sh now → $4.08 mid-life (likely $3.52–$6.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 237 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $363 (overshoots $3.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $24 below CC-SS $384.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $360.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$11,789 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,531 (+$4,894 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-717 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,814, the opportunity cost of earning $2,362/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,625, position total $-13,576 (+$3,849 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $355 | 18 Sep | 4d | 3.9% | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 26% | · | $460 | $3,450 | -$2,400 | $11,223 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $355 3.9% OTM over spot $341.65 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.17 mid) = $460 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $356.18) 88% EV / mo +$1,869 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,148 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $373 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.69/sh now → $4.02 mid-life (likely $3.89–$6.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 536 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $358 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $29 below CC-SS $384.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $356.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,683 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $355): -$11,223 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,960 (+$5,465 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-717 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,243, the opportunity cost of earning $3,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,092, position total $-12,038 (+$5,387 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 3.2% | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 30% | · | $780 | $5,850 | — | $15,074 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 3.2% OTM over spot $341.65 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.59 mid) = $780 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $354.10) 85% EV / mo +$2,811 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,216 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $376 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.65/sh now → $3.99 mid-life (likely $4.21–$7.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 726 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $356 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $32 below CC-SS $384.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.56 collected) or spot ≥ $354.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$15,074 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,816 (+$1,609 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-717 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,099, the opportunity cost of earning $5,850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,910, position total $-16,861 (+$564 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $347.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 1.7% | 69%hist 65% | 62%hist 59% | · | $1,425 | $10,688 | +$4,838 | $16,929 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $347.50 1.7% OTM over spot $341.65 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $2.90 mid) = $1,425 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $347.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $350.39) 77% EV / mo +$3,894 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$543 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $381 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.57/sh now → $3.94 mid-life (likely $4.78–$7.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,315 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $351 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $347.50 is $37 below CC-SS $384.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.85 collected) or spot ≥ $350.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $348)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $347.50): -$16,929 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,671 ($-246 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-717 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,954, the opportunity cost of earning $10,688/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,765, position total $-18,716 ($-1,291 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $370 | 25 Sep | 11d | 8.3% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | · | $370 | $1,009 | -$4,718 | $6,734 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $370 8.3% OTM over spot $341.65 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.80 mid) = $370 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,009/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $370) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $370.81) 93% EV / mo +$521 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,781 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $378 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.91/sh now → $6.30 mid-life (likely $5.03–$8.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 268 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $373 (overshoots $3.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $370 is $14 below CC-SS $384.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $370.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $370)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $370): -$6,734 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,476 (+$9,949 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-717 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,759, the opportunity cost of earning $1,009/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,570, position total $-8,521 (+$8,904 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $355 | 25 Sep | 11d | 3.9% | 77%hist 84% | 46%hist 39% | · | $1,405 | $3,832 | -$1,895 | $13,199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 3.9% OTM over spot $341.65 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $2.89 mid) = $1,405 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,832/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $357.89) 82% EV / mo +$1,487 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,618 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $373 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.55/sh now → $6.05 mid-life (likely $6.19–$9.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,085 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $358 (overshoots $3.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $29 below CC-SS $384.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.70/sh (~25% of the $2.81 collected) or spot ≥ $357.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$13,199 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,941 (+$3,484 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-717 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,224, the opportunity cost of earning $3,832/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,035, position total $-14,986 (+$2,439 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $350 | 25 Sep | 11d | 2.4% | 69%hist 65% | 63%hist 59% | · | $2,100 | $5,727 | — | $15,004 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $350 2.4% OTM over spot $341.65 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $4.30 mid) = $2,100 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,727/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $350) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $354.30) 77% EV / mo +$1,968 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$880 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $368 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.43/sh now → $5.96 mid-life (likely $6.99–$9.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,554 simulated challenges: the $350 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $353 (overshoots $3.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $350 is $34 below CC-SS $384.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.05/sh (~25% of the $4.20 collected) or spot ≥ $354.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $350)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $350): -$15,004 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,746 (+$1,679 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-717 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,029, the opportunity cost of earning $5,727/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,840, position total $-16,791 (+$634 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $342.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 0.2% | 53%hist 70% | 96%hist 90% | · | $3,550 | $9,682 | +$3,955 | $17,304 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $342.50 0.2% OTM over spot $341.65 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $7.42 mid) = $3,550 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $342.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $349.93) 69% EV / mo +$2,098 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 79% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$634 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $376 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.25/sh now → $5.83 mid-life (likely $8.22–$11.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,356 simulated challenges: the $342 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $346 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $342.50 is $42 below CC-SS $384.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.77/sh (~25% of the $7.10 collected) or spot ≥ $349.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $342)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $346.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,683 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $342.50): -$17,304 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,046 ($-621 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-717 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,329, the opportunity cost of earning $9,682/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,140, position total $-19,091 ($-1,666 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.784 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,683 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-717
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.56 | 5/5 | $5,850 | $5,850 | 82% | 85% | +$2,811 | -$15,074 | 59.1% | $-15,816 (vs do-nothing $-15,099) |
| $350 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.11 | 4/5 | $6,330 | $6,344 | 76% | 81% | +$2,644 | -$12,839 | 50.4% | $-13,576 (vs do-nothing $-12,859) |
| $347.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.85 | 3/5 | $6,412 | $6,440 | 69% | 77% | +$2,336 | -$10,158 | 39.8% | $-10,890 (vs do-nothing $-10,173) |
| $350 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.20 | 5/5 | $5,727 | $5,727 | 69% | 77% | +$1,968 | -$15,004 | 58.8% | $-15,746 (vs do-nothing $-15,029) |
| $347.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.85 | 4/5 | $5,291 | $5,305 | 64% | 74% | +$1,408 | -$12,743 | 50.0% | $-13,480 (vs do-nothing $-12,763) |
| $345 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.70 | 2/5 | $5,550 | $5,591 | 62% | 73% | +$1,666 | -$7,102 | 27.8% | $-7,829 (vs do-nothing $-7,112) |
| $347.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.65 | 5/5 | $5,542 | $5,542 | 61% | 72% | +$1,200 | -$15,029 | 58.9% | $-15,771 (vs do-nothing $-15,054) |
| $345 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.95 | 3/5 | $4,868 | $4,895 | 59% | 71% | +$1,232 | -$9,978 | 39.1% | $-10,710 (vs do-nothing $-9,993) |
| $345 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.80 | 4/5 | $5,200 | $5,214 | 57% | 70% | +$1,070 | -$12,563 | 49.3% | $-13,300 (vs do-nothing $-12,583) |
| $345 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.65 | 5/5 | $5,790 | $5,790 | 57% | 71% | +$1,464 | -$14,779 | 58.0% | $-15,521 (vs do-nothing $-14,804) |
| $342.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.85 | 2/5 | $7,275 | $7,316 | 54% | 69% | +$1,860 | -$7,372 | 28.9% | $-8,099 (vs do-nothing $-7,382) |
| $342.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.10 | 3/5 | $5,809 | $5,836 | 53% | 69% | +$1,259 | -$10,383 | 40.7% | $-11,115 (vs do-nothing $-10,398) |
| $342.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.95 | 4/5 | $5,967 | $5,980 | 53% | 69% | +$1,148 | -$13,103 | 51.4% | $-13,840 (vs do-nothing $-13,123) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $340 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $11.90 | 4/5 | $5,712 | $5,726 | 49% | 67% | +$1,049 | -$12,923 | 50.7% | $-13,660 (vs do-nothing $-12,943) |
| $340 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.30 | 3/5 | $5,150 | $5,177 | 48% | 67% | +$927 | -$10,173 | 39.9% | $-10,905 (vs do-nothing $-10,188) |
| $340 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.45 | 3/5 | $6,914 | $6,941 | 47% | 66% | +$1,306 | -$10,728 | 42.1% | $-11,460 (vs do-nothing $-10,743) |
| $340 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.15 | 2/5 | $9,225 | $9,266 | 45% | 66% | +$1,861 | -$7,612 | 29.8% | $-8,339 (vs do-nothing $-7,622) |
| $337.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.60 | 3/5 | $5,800 | $5,827 | 44% | 65% | +$857 | -$10,533 | 41.3% | $-11,265 (vs do-nothing $-10,548) |
| $337.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.85 | 2/5 | $5,373 | $5,414 | 42% | 64% | +$845 | -$7,372 | 28.9% | $-8,099 (vs do-nothing $-7,382) |
| $335 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $14.95 | 3/5 | $5,382 | $5,409 | 41% | 64% | +$852 | -$10,278 | 40.3% | $-11,010 (vs do-nothing $-10,293) |
| $335 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $13.30 | 3/5 | $6,650 | $6,677 | 40% | 63% | +$972 | -$10,773 | 42.2% | $-11,505 (vs do-nothing $-10,788) |
| $337.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.70 | 1/5 | $5,775 | $5,830 | 37% | 63% | +$923 | -$3,901 | 15.3% | $-4,623 (vs do-nothing $-3,906) |
| $335 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.40 | 2/5 | $6,218 | $6,259 | 37% | 62% | +$781 | -$7,562 | 29.7% | $-8,289 (vs do-nothing $-7,572) |
| $335 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $9.45 | 1/5 | $7,088 | $7,142 | 30% | 60% | +$904 | -$3,976 | 15.6% | $-4,698 (vs do-nothing $-3,981) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.