5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $382.86 (banked floor $321.40) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,350/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,498/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-16,225 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 5 × $355 | 86% | $4,350 | $3,383 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 5 × $355 | 76% | $3,885 | $606 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $360 | 18 Sep | 3d | 4.9% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 14% | · | $220 | $2,200 | -$2,150 | $11,210 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 4.9% OTM over spot $343.27 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.46 mid) = $220 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $360.46) 93% EV / mo +$1,257 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,406 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $377 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.60/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 200 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $363 (overshoots $2.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $23 below CC-SS $382.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $360.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $382.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,717 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$11,210 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,718 (+$4,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-483 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,235, the opportunity cost of earning $2,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,700, position total $-12,849 (+$3,376 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $357.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 4.1% | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 26% | · | $244 | $2,440 | -$1,910 | $9,900 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $357.50 4.1% OTM over spot $343.27 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.65 mid) = $244 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $357.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $358.14) 91% EV / mo +$1,210 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,048 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $379 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.57/sh now → $3.23 mid-life (likely $3.01–$5.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 341 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $361 (overshoots $3.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $357.50 is $25 below CC-SS $382.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $358.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $358)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $382.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,717 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $357.50): -$9,900 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,403 (+$5,822 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-483 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,920, the opportunity cost of earning $2,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,292, position total $-10,436 (+$5,789 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $355 | 18 Sep | 3d | 3.4% | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 26% | · | $435 | $4,350 | — | $13,495 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 3.4% OTM over spot $343.27 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.91 mid) = $435 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $355.90) 87% EV / mo +$1,859 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,169 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $377 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.54/sh now → $3.21 mid-life (likely $3.20–$5.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 479 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $358 (overshoots $3.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $28 below CC-SS $382.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $355.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $382.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,717 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$13,495 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,003 (+$2,222 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-483 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,520, the opportunity cost of earning $4,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,985, position total $-15,134 (+$1,091 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $350 | 18 Sep | 3d | 2.0% | 74%hist 84% | 52%hist 44% | · | $875 | $8,750 | +$4,400 | $15,555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $350 2.0% OTM over spot $343.27 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $1.79 mid) = $875 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $350) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $351.80) 79% EV / mo +$2,683 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$706 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $382 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.47/sh now → $3.16 mid-life (likely $3.70–$6.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,020 simulated challenges: the $350 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $353 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $350 is $33 below CC-SS $382.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.75 collected) or spot ≥ $351.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $350)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $382.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,717 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $350): -$15,555 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,063 (+$162 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-483 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,580, the opportunity cost of earning $8,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,045, position total $-17,194 ($-969 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $370 | 25 Sep | 10d | 7.8% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 14% | · | $330 | $990 | -$2,895 | $6,100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $370 7.8% OTM over spot $343.27 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.73 mid) = $330 credit for the 10d cycle → $990/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $370) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $370.73) 93% EV / mo +$545 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,408 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $377 @ 72% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.74/sh now → $5.48 mid-life (likely $4.27–$7.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 256 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $373 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $370 is $13 below CC-SS $382.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $370.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $370)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $382.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,717 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $370): -$6,100 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,608 (+$9,617 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-483 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,125, the opportunity cost of earning $990/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,590, position total $-7,739 (+$8,486 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $360 | 25 Sep | 10d | 4.9% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | · | $835 | $2,505 | -$1,380 | $10,595 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 4.9% OTM over spot $343.27 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.72 mid) = $835 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,505/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $361.72) 86% EV / mo +$1,051 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,829 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $372 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.53/sh now → $5.33 mid-life (likely $5.09–$7.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 739 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $363 (overshoots $3.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $23 below CC-SS $382.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.67 collected) or spot ≥ $361.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $382.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,717 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$10,595 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,103 (+$5,122 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-483 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,620, the opportunity cost of earning $2,505/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,085, position total $-12,234 (+$3,991 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $355 | 25 Sep | 10d | 3.4% | 76%hist 84% | 48%hist 39% | · | $1,295 | $3,885 | — | $12,635 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 3.4% OTM over spot $343.27 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.67 mid) = $1,295 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,885/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $357.68) 81% EV / mo +$1,298 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,332 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $372 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.43/sh now → $5.25 mid-life (likely $5.41–$8.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,121 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $358 (overshoots $3.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $28 below CC-SS $382.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.65/sh (~25% of the $2.59 collected) or spot ≥ $357.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $382.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,717 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$12,635 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,143 (+$3,082 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-483 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,660, the opportunity cost of earning $3,885/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,125, position total $-14,274 (+$1,951 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $345 | 25 Sep | 10d | 0.5% | 55%hist 70% | 92%hist 90% | · | $2,925 | $8,775 | +$4,890 | $16,005 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $345 0.5% OTM over spot $343.27 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $6.10 mid) = $2,925 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,775/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $345) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $351.10) 69% EV / mo +$1,524 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$372 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $377 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.22/sh now → $5.11 mid-life (likely $7.03–$9.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,286 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $349 (overshoots $3.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $345 is $38 below CC-SS $382.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.46/sh (~25% of the $5.85 collected) or spot ≥ $351.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $345)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $382.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,225 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,717 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $345): -$16,005 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,513 ($-288 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-483 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,030, the opportunity cost of earning $8,775/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,495, position total $-17,644 ($-1,419 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.794 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$15,717 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-483
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $355 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.87 | 5/5 | $4,350 | $4,350 | 86% | 87% | +$1,859 | -$13,495 | 52.9% | $-14,003 (vs do-nothing $-13,520) |
| $352.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.23 | 3/5 | $3,690 | $3,720 | 80% | 83% | +$1,330 | -$8,739 | 34.3% | $-9,237 (vs do-nothing $-8,754) |
| $355 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.59 | 5/5 | $3,885 | $3,885 | 76% | 81% | +$1,298 | -$12,635 | 49.5% | $-13,143 (vs do-nothing $-12,660) |
| $350 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.75 | 3/5 | $5,250 | $5,280 | 74% | 79% | +$1,610 | -$9,333 | 36.6% | $-9,831 (vs do-nothing $-9,348) |
| $352.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.20 | 4/5 | $3,840 | $3,855 | 72% | 78% | +$1,113 | -$10,864 | 42.6% | $-11,367 (vs do-nothing $-10,884) |
| $355 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.35 | 5/5 | $3,838 | $3,838 | 71% | 78% | +$1,100 | -$11,755 | 46.1% | $-12,263 (vs do-nothing $-11,780) |
| $352.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.95 | 5/5 | $4,368 | $4,368 | 67% | 75% | +$1,022 | -$12,705 | 49.8% | $-13,213 (vs do-nothing $-12,730) |
| $350 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.95 | 4/5 | $4,740 | $4,755 | 66% | 75% | +$1,186 | -$11,564 | 45.3% | $-12,067 (vs do-nothing $-11,584) |
| $347.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.46 | 2/5 | $4,920 | $4,965 | 66% | 74% | +$1,215 | -$6,580 | 25.8% | $-7,073 (vs do-nothing $-6,590) |
| $350 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.85 | 4/5 | $4,129 | $4,144 | 63% | 73% | +$883 | -$10,804 | 42.4% | $-11,307 (vs do-nothing $-10,824) |
| $350 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.65 | 4/5 | $3,825 | $3,840 | 62% | 72% | +$843 | -$10,084 | 39.5% | $-10,587 (vs do-nothing $-10,104) |
| $347.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.85 | 3/5 | $4,365 | $4,395 | 61% | 72% | +$936 | -$9,153 | 35.9% | $-9,651 (vs do-nothing $-9,168) |
| $347.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.85 | 4/5 | $4,835 | $4,850 | 59% | 71% | +$930 | -$11,404 | 44.7% | $-11,907 (vs do-nothing $-11,424) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $345 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.35 | 2/5 | $6,700 | $6,745 | 57% | 70% | +$1,184 | -$6,902 | 27.1% | $-7,395 (vs do-nothing $-6,912) |
| $345 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.85 | 3/5 | $5,265 | $5,295 | 55% | 69% | +$914 | -$9,603 | 37.7% | $-10,101 (vs do-nothing $-9,618) |
| $345 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.95 | 3/5 | $4,209 | $4,239 | 54% | 68% | +$715 | -$8,973 | 35.2% | $-9,471 (vs do-nothing $-8,988) |
| $345 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.65 | 4/5 | $4,825 | $4,840 | 54% | 68% | +$810 | -$11,284 | 44.3% | $-11,787 (vs do-nothing $-11,304) |
| $342.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.10 | 3/5 | $4,818 | $4,848 | 50% | 66% | +$685 | -$9,378 | 36.8% | $-9,876 (vs do-nothing $-9,393) |
| $342.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.05 | 2/5 | $4,230 | $4,275 | 49% | 66% | +$605 | -$6,662 | 26.1% | $-7,155 (vs do-nothing $-6,672) |
| $342.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.50 | 1/5 | $4,500 | $4,560 | 48% | 65% | +$582 | -$3,586 | 14.1% | $-4,074 (vs do-nothing $-3,591) |
| $340 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $12.15 | 3/5 | $4,556 | $4,586 | 46% | 65% | +$606 | -$9,213 | 36.1% | $-9,711 (vs do-nothing $-9,228) |
| $340 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.45 | 2/5 | $3,688 | $3,733 | 45% | 64% | +$458 | -$6,482 | 25.4% | $-6,975 (vs do-nothing $-6,492) |
| $340 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.40 | 2/5 | $5,040 | $5,085 | 43% | 64% | +$579 | -$6,892 | 27.0% | $-7,385 (vs do-nothing $-6,902) |
| $337.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.90 | 2/5 | $4,200 | $4,245 | 41% | 63% | +$445 | -$6,692 | 26.2% | $-7,185 (vs do-nothing $-6,702) |
| $340 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.95 | 1/5 | $5,950 | $6,010 | 38% | 61% | +$513 | -$3,691 | 14.5% | $-4,179 (vs do-nothing $-3,696) |
| $337.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.95 | 2/5 | $5,970 | $6,015 | 37% | 61% | +$565 | -$7,082 | 27.8% | $-7,575 (vs do-nothing $-7,092) |
| $337.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.60 | 1/5 | $7,600 | $7,660 | 30% | 58% | +$354 | -$3,776 | 14.8% | $-4,264 (vs do-nothing $-3,781) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.