5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $383.80 (banked floor $322.77) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,837/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,485/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,562 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 4 × $352.50 | 90% | $3,960 | $3,544 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 5 × $352.50 | 77% | $4,133 | $814 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $362.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 6.3% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 26% | · | $450 | $1,500 | -$2,460 | $10,200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $362.50 6.3% OTM over spot $340.99 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.98 mid) = $450 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $363.48) 91% EV / mo +$765 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,248 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $372 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.63/sh now → $5.40 mid-life (likely $4.57–$7.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $366 (overshoots $3.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $362.50 is $21 below CC-SS $383.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $363.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,562 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,888 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $362.50): -$10,200 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,874 (+$6,689 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,300, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,235, position total $-11,936 (+$5,626 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $355 | 18 Sep | 2d | 4.1% | 93%hist 96% | 13%hist 14% | · | $215 | $3,225 | -$735 | $14,185 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 4.1% OTM over spot $340.99 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.45 mid) = $215 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $355.45) 94% EV / mo +$2,264 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,353 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $374 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.43/sh now → $3.14 mid-life (likely $3.03–$5.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 182 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $358 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $29 below CC-SS $383.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $355.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,562 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,888 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$14,185 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,859 (+$2,704 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,285, the opportunity cost of earning $3,225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,220, position total $-15,921 (+$1,641 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $352.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 3.4% | 90%hist 86% | 20%hist 26% | · | $264 | $3,960 | — | $12,256 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $352.50 3.4% OTM over spot $340.99 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.68 mid) = $264 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $353.18) 91% EV / mo +$2,579 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$982 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $377 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.40/sh now → $3.11 mid-life (likely $3.43–$6.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $356 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $31 below CC-SS $383.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $353.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,562 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,888 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $352.50): -$12,256 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,910 (+$4,653 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,336, the opportunity cost of earning $3,960/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,284, position total $-12,965 (+$4,597 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $347.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 1.9% | 77%hist 84% | 46%hist 39% | · | $596 | $8,940 | +$4,980 | $13,924 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $347.50 1.9% OTM over spot $340.99 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $1.54 mid) = $596 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,940/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $347.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $349.05) 82% EV / mo +$4,113 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$632 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $377 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.34/sh now → $3.07 mid-life (likely $3.56–$6.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 820 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $351 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $347.50 is $36 below CC-SS $383.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.49 collected) or spot ≥ $349.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $348)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,562 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,888 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $347.50): -$13,924 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,578 (+$2,985 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,004, the opportunity cost of earning $8,940/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,952, position total $-14,633 (+$2,929 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $362.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 6.3% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 26% | · | $450 | $1,500 | -$2,633 | $10,200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $362.50 6.3% OTM over spot $340.99 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.98 mid) = $450 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $363.48) 91% EV / mo +$765 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,248 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $372 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.63/sh now → $5.40 mid-life (likely $4.57–$7.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $366 (overshoots $3.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $362.50 is $21 below CC-SS $383.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $363.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,562 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,888 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $362.50): -$10,200 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,874 (+$6,689 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,300, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,235, position total $-11,936 (+$5,626 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $355 | 25 Sep | 9d | 4.1% | 81%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | · | $965 | $3,217 | -$917 | $13,435 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 4.1% OTM over spot $340.99 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.04 mid) = $965 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,217/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $357.04) 84% EV / mo +$1,347 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,677 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $369 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.47/sh now → $5.28 mid-life (likely $5.11–$8.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 810 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $358 (overshoots $3.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $29 below CC-SS $383.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.93 collected) or spot ≥ $357.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,562 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,888 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$13,435 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,109 (+$3,454 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,535, the opportunity cost of earning $3,217/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,470, position total $-15,171 (+$2,391 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 3.4% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | · | $1,240 | $4,133 | — | $14,410 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 3.4% OTM over spot $340.99 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.58 mid) = $1,240 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,133/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $355.08) 82% EV / mo +$1,598 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,383 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $367 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.42/sh now → $5.25 mid-life (likely $5.34–$8.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,045 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $356 (overshoots $3.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $31 below CC-SS $383.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.48 collected) or spot ≥ $355.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,562 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,888 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$14,410 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,084 (+$2,479 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,510, the opportunity cost of earning $4,133/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,445, position total $-16,146 (+$1,416 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $345 | 25 Sep | 9d | 1.2% | 61%hist 65% | 79%hist 67% | · | $2,475 | $8,250 | +$4,117 | $16,925 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $345 1.2% OTM over spot $340.99 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $5.18 mid) = $2,475 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $345) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $350.18) 73% EV / mo +$2,322 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$92 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $374 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.26/sh now → $5.13 mid-life (likely $6.75–$9.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,955 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $348 (overshoots $3.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $345 is $39 below CC-SS $383.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.24/sh (~25% of the $4.95 collected) or spot ≥ $350.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $345)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,562 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,888 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $345): -$16,925 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,599 ($-36 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,025, the opportunity cost of earning $8,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,960, position total $-18,661 ($-1,099 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.789 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,888 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-574
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.66 | 4/5 | $3,960 | $3,998 | 90% | 91% | +$2,579 | -$12,256 | 48.1% | $-12,910 (vs do-nothing $-12,336) |
| $350 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.98 | 3/5 | $4,410 | $4,485 | 85% | 87% | +$2,455 | -$9,846 | 38.6% | $-10,480 (vs do-nothing $-9,906) |
| $347.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.49 | 2/5 | $4,470 | $4,582 | 77% | 82% | +$2,056 | -$6,962 | 27.3% | $-7,576 (vs do-nothing $-7,002) |
| $352.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.48 | 5/5 | $4,133 | $4,133 | 77% | 82% | +$1,598 | -$14,410 | 56.5% | $-15,084 (vs do-nothing $-14,510) |
| $350 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $4,000 | $4,038 | 72% | 78% | +$1,273 | -$12,320 | 48.3% | $-12,974 (vs do-nothing $-12,400) |
| $345 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.28 | 2/5 | $6,840 | $6,952 | 71% | 80% | +$3,806 | -$7,304 | 28.6% | $-7,918 (vs do-nothing $-7,344) |
| $350 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.65 | 5/5 | $4,359 | $4,359 | 68% | 76% | +$1,171 | -$14,575 | 57.2% | $-15,249 (vs do-nothing $-14,675) |
| $347.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.75 | 4/5 | $5,000 | $5,038 | 67% | 75% | +$1,379 | -$13,020 | 51.1% | $-13,674 (vs do-nothing $-13,100) |
| $350 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.55 | 5/5 | $4,272 | $4,272 | 65% | 74% | +$1,157 | -$13,625 | 53.4% | $-14,299 (vs do-nothing $-13,725) |
| $347.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.55 | 4/5 | $4,162 | $4,200 | 64% | 74% | +$1,034 | -$12,300 | 48.2% | $-12,954 (vs do-nothing $-12,380) |
| $345 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.95 | 3/5 | $4,950 | $5,025 | 61% | 73% | +$1,393 | -$10,155 | 39.8% | $-10,789 (vs do-nothing $-10,215) |
| $345 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.50 | 4/5 | $4,875 | $4,912 | 59% | 71% | +$887 | -$12,920 | 50.7% | $-13,574 (vs do-nothing $-13,000) |
| $345 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.40 | 4/5 | $4,383 | $4,420 | 58% | 71% | +$937 | -$12,160 | 47.7% | $-12,814 (vs do-nothing $-12,240) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $342.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 1/5 | $4,950 | $5,100 | 58% | 72% | +$1,667 | -$3,800 | 14.9% | $-4,394 (vs do-nothing $-3,820) |
| $342.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.00 | 2/5 | $4,000 | $4,112 | 55% | 69% | +$944 | -$7,060 | 27.7% | $-7,674 (vs do-nothing $-7,100) |
| $342.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.65 | 3/5 | $4,303 | $4,378 | 54% | 69% | +$710 | -$10,095 | 39.6% | $-10,729 (vs do-nothing $-10,155) |
| $340 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $10.95 | 3/5 | $4,285 | $4,360 | 50% | 67% | +$799 | -$9,855 | 38.6% | $-10,489 (vs do-nothing $-9,915) |
| $340 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.35 | 3/5 | $5,259 | $5,334 | 49% | 67% | +$986 | -$10,335 | 40.5% | $-10,969 (vs do-nothing $-10,395) |
| $340 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.20 | 2/5 | $4,800 | $4,912 | 48% | 67% | +$929 | -$7,320 | 28.7% | $-7,934 (vs do-nothing $-7,360) |
| $340 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.50 | 1/5 | $6,750 | $6,900 | 46% | 67% | +$1,622 | -$3,930 | 15.4% | $-4,524 (vs do-nothing $-3,950) |
| $337.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.40 | 3/5 | $5,850 | $5,925 | 45% | 65% | +$817 | -$10,770 | 42.2% | $-11,404 (vs do-nothing $-10,830) |
| $337.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.55 | 2/5 | $5,700 | $5,813 | 42% | 64% | +$881 | -$7,550 | 29.6% | $-8,164 (vs do-nothing $-7,590) |
| $335 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $13.75 | 3/5 | $5,380 | $5,455 | 42% | 64% | +$801 | -$10,515 | 41.2% | $-11,149 (vs do-nothing $-10,575) |
| $335 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.90 | 2/5 | $4,462 | $4,575 | 40% | 63% | +$547 | -$7,380 | 28.9% | $-7,994 (vs do-nothing $-7,420) |
| $335 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $10.15 | 2/5 | $6,767 | $6,879 | 36% | 62% | +$873 | -$7,730 | 30.3% | $-8,344 (vs do-nothing $-7,770) |
| $337.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.20 | 1/5 | $9,300 | $9,450 | 35% | 63% | +$1,787 | -$4,010 | 15.7% | $-4,604 (vs do-nothing $-4,030) |
| $335 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.85 | 1/5 | $11,775 | $11,925 | 25% | 60% | +$1,477 | -$4,095 | 16.1% | $-4,689 (vs do-nothing $-4,115) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.