5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $383.75 (banked floor $322.71) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,600/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,495/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 8d | 5 × $352.50 | 75% | $4,031 | $870 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $365 | 25 Sep | 8d | 6.6% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | · | $285 | $1,069 | -$2,962 | $9,088 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $365 6.6% OTM over spot $342.39 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.62 mid) = $285 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,069/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $365.62) 92% EV / mo +$480 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,959 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $373 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.35/sh now → $4.49 mid-life (likely $3.47–$6.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $368 (overshoots $2.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $365 is $19 below CC-SS $383.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $365.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,398 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $365): -$9,088 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,690 (+$7,310 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-527 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,163, the opportunity cost of earning $1,069/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,145, position total $-10,737 (+$6,263 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $355 | 25 Sep | 8d | 3.7% | 80%hist 86% | 40%hist 39% | · | $820 | $3,075 | -$956 | $13,553 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 3.7% OTM over spot $342.39 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.70 mid) = $820 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,075/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $356.70) 83% EV / mo +$906 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,363 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $365 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.17/sh now → $4.37 mid-life (likely $4.28–$6.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 912 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $358 (overshoots $2.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $29 below CC-SS $383.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $356.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,398 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$13,553 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,155 (+$2,845 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-527 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,628, the opportunity cost of earning $3,075/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,610, position total $-15,202 (+$1,798 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 25 Sep | 8d | 3.0% | 75%hist 84% | 50%hist 39% | · | $1,075 | $4,031 | — | $14,548 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 3.0% OTM over spot $342.39 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $2.22 mid) = $1,075 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,031/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $354.73) 80% EV / mo +$1,048 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,093 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $370 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.13/sh now → $4.34 mid-life (likely $4.69–$7.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,164 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $356 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $31 below CC-SS $383.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.15 collected) or spot ≥ $354.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,398 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$14,548 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,150 (+$1,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-527 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,623, the opportunity cost of earning $4,031/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,605, position total $-16,197 (+$803 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $345 | 25 Sep | 8d | 0.8% | 58%hist 70% | 86%hist 79% | · | $2,275 | $8,531 | +$4,500 | $17,098 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $345 0.8% OTM over spot $342.39 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $4.62 mid) = $2,275 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,531/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $345) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $349.62) 69% EV / mo +$1,370 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$154 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $373 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.00/sh now → $4.24 mid-life (likely $5.67–$7.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,069 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $348 (overshoots $3.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $345 is $39 below CC-SS $383.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.14/sh (~25% of the $4.55 collected) or spot ≥ $349.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $345)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $347.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $383.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,398 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $345): -$17,098 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,700 ($-700 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-527 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,173, the opportunity cost of earning $8,531/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $393.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,155, position total $-18,747 ($-1,747 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.793 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,398 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-527
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.15 | 5/5 | $4,031 | $4,031 | 75% | 80% | +$1,048 | -$14,548 | 57.1% | $-15,150 (vs do-nothing $-14,623) |
| $350 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.77 | 4/5 | $4,155 | $4,185 | 70% | 76% | +$910 | -$12,391 | 48.6% | $-12,978 (vs do-nothing $-12,451) |
| $352.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.90 | 5/5 | $3,900 | $3,900 | 70% | 77% | +$877 | -$13,673 | 53.6% | $-14,275 (vs do-nothing $-13,748) |
| $350 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.65 | 5/5 | $4,650 | $4,650 | 66% | 74% | +$906 | -$14,548 | 57.1% | $-15,150 (vs do-nothing $-14,623) |
| $347.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.40 | 3/5 | $3,825 | $3,885 | 64% | 73% | +$563 | -$9,854 | 38.6% | $-10,426 (vs do-nothing $-9,899) |
| $350 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.35 | 5/5 | $4,330 | $4,330 | 64% | 73% | +$874 | -$13,698 | 53.7% | $-14,300 (vs do-nothing $-13,773) |
| $347.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.45 | 4/5 | $4,360 | $4,390 | 61% | 71% | +$680 | -$12,319 | 48.3% | $-12,906 (vs do-nothing $-12,379) |
| $345 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.55 | 3/5 | $5,119 | $5,179 | 58% | 69% | +$822 | -$10,259 | 40.2% | $-10,831 (vs do-nothing $-10,304) |
| $345 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.60 | 3/5 | $3,960 | $4,020 | 56% | 69% | +$600 | -$9,644 | 37.8% | $-10,216 (vs do-nothing $-9,689) |
| $345 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.30 | 4/5 | $4,527 | $4,557 | 56% | 69% | +$666 | -$12,179 | 47.8% | $-12,766 (vs do-nothing $-12,239) |
| $342.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.60 | 3/5 | $4,560 | $4,620 | 51% | 66% | +$510 | -$10,094 | 39.6% | $-10,666 (vs do-nothing $-10,139) |
| $342.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.35 | 2/5 | $4,012 | $4,102 | 51% | 66% | +$316 | -$7,179 | 28.2% | $-7,736 (vs do-nothing $-7,209) |
| $340 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $10.55 | 3/5 | $4,316 | $4,376 | 48% | 65% | +$426 | -$9,959 | 39.1% | $-10,531 (vs do-nothing $-10,004) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $340 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.90 | 3/5 | $5,340 | $5,400 | 46% | 64% | +$505 | -$10,454 | 41.0% | $-11,026 (vs do-nothing $-10,499) |
| $340 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.65 | 2/5 | $4,988 | $5,078 | 44% | 63% | +$296 | -$7,419 | 29.1% | $-7,976 (vs do-nothing $-7,449) |
| $337.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.20 | 2/5 | $4,080 | $4,170 | 42% | 62% | +$273 | -$7,209 | 28.3% | $-7,766 (vs do-nothing $-7,239) |
| $337.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.00 | 2/5 | $6,000 | $6,090 | 38% | 60% | +$157 | -$7,649 | 30.0% | $-8,206 (vs do-nothing $-7,679) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.