FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $319.24

BE SS: $398.00  |  CC-SS: $389.31  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-28 03:16

GOOG-LC340 @ $319.24   UNDERWATER $78.76 (19.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
GOOG reports 2026-10-28 (Wed), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $398.00  |  CC-SS: $389.31 (banked floor $325.17)  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)
SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)
HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$48,000(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref$10,412/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,129/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-28,262fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,206/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$10,412/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $25,500
ML VELOCITY
4.6 mo to earn back $48,000
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $389.31 (probe: $390C 17d) brings only $274/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$26,654
Hole (after banked)
$1,609
was $28,262 · 94% earned back
Cycles closed
37
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$389.31 → $325.17
? 9 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (37) and event log · CLOSED 23 · UNKNOWN 9 · EXPIRED 5 · updated 2026-10-28 03:11
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED5x $360C 16 Oct 2026$2.52$1,2622026-10-062026-10-16$0.25$1,137U13190865snapshot
CLOSED5x $360C 16 Oct 2026$2.52$1,2622026-10-022026-10-06$1.27$627U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $367.5C 16 Oct 2026$2.69$1,3432026-10-012026-10-02$2.69$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $350C 2 Oct 2026$1.10$5512026-09-292026-10-01$1.10$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $355C 2 Oct 2026$1.25$6232026-09-282026-09-29$1.25$0U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $340C 25 Sep 2026$0.77$3862026-09-252026-09-28$0.00$386U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $370C 2 Oct 2026$2.00$1,0002026-09-222026-09-25$2.00$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $355C 25 Sep 2026$1.76$8822026-09-182026-09-22$1.76$0U13190865snapshot
CLOSED5x $345C 11 Sep 2026$0.78$3892026-09-092026-09-09$0.22$279U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $350C 11 Sep 2026$0.70$3522026-09-082026-09-09$0.70$0U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $345C 4 Sep 2026$0.88$4382026-09-012026-09-08$0.00$438U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $357.5C 28 Aug 2026$0.92$4622026-08-252026-08-31$0.00$462U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $350C 21 Aug 2026$1.25$6242026-08-182026-08-24$0.00$624U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $400C 20 Nov 2026$7.13$7132026-08-132026-08-18$6.43$70U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $400C 20 Nov 2026$7.13$7132026-08-132026-08-18$6.43$70U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $400C 20 Nov 2026$7.13$7132026-08-132026-08-18$6.43$70U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $400C 20 Nov 2026$7.13$7132026-08-132026-08-18$6.42$71U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $400C 20 Nov 2026$7.13$7132026-08-132026-08-18$6.43$70U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $420C 20 Nov 2026$7.25$3,6232026-08-102026-08-13$7.25$0U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 18 Sep 2026$4.80$4802026-07-292026-08-10$8.24$-344U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 18 Sep 2026$4.80$4802026-07-292026-08-10$8.25$-345U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 18 Sep 2026$4.80$4802026-07-292026-08-10$8.25$-345U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 18 Sep 2026$4.80$4802026-07-292026-08-10$8.25$-345U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 18 Sep 2026$4.80$4802026-07-292026-08-10$8.24$-344U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $342.5C 7 Aug 2026$2.11$4212026-07-272026-07-29$4.44$-467U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $342.5C 7 Aug 2026$2.11$2112026-07-272026-07-29$4.44$-233U13190865snapshot
CLOSED2x $342.5C 7 Aug 2026$2.11$4212026-07-272026-07-29$4.44$-467U13190865snapshot
CLOSED15x $370C 31 Jul 2026$15.01$22,5202026-07-172026-07-23$0.18$22,250U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN15x $360C 17 Jul 2026$1.87$2,8052026-07-142026-07-17$1.87$0U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$652026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$14U13190865execution
CLOSED4x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$2602026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$56U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$1302026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$28U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$1302026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$28U13190865execution
CLOSED4x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$2602026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$56U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$1302026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$28U13190865execution
UNKNOWN5x $400C 31 Jul 2026$3.20$1,5982026-07-072026-07-14$3.20$0U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED15x $375C 10 Jul 2026$1.85$2,7792026-07-072026-07-11$0.00$2,779U13190865seed
Event log
2026-10-21 BOT 15x $355C 20261023 @ $0.46 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 2x $360C 20261023 @ $0.78 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 3x $360C 20261023 @ $0.78 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 3x $360C 20261023 @ $0.78 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 3x $360C 20261023 @ $0.78 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 1x $360C 20261023 @ $0.79 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 3x $360C 20261023 @ $0.78 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 2x $355C 20261023 @ $1.45 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 3x $355C 20261023 @ $1.45 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 3x $355C 20261023 @ $1.45 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 3x $355C 20261023 @ $1.44 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 1x $355C 20261023 @ $1.45 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 3x $355C 20261023 @ $1.44 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 CLOSED 5x $360C 20261016: banked $1,137
2026-10-15 BOT 2x $365C 20261023 @ $1.06 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 BOT 2x $365C 20261023 @ $1.06 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 BOT 2x $365C 20261023 @ $1.06 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 BOT 3x $365C 20261023 @ $1.06 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 BOT 6x $365C 20261023 @ $1.06 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 SLD 2x $360C 20261023 @ $1.71 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-15 SLD 2x $360C 20261023 @ $1.71 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-15 SLD 2x $360C 20261023 @ $1.71 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-15 SLD 3x $360C 20261023 @ $1.71 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-15 SLD 6x $360C 20261023 @ $1.71 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 1x $355C 20261016 @ $2.98 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 1x $355C 20261016 @ $2.94 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 2x $355C 20261016 @ $2.95 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 1x $365C 20261023 @ $2.38 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 1x $365C 20261023 @ $2.34 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 2x $365C 20261023 @ $2.35 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 3x $355C 20261016 @ $2.99 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 3x $355C 20261016 @ $2.99 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 3x $355C 20261016 @ $2.99 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 2x $355C 20261016 @ $2.99 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 3x $365C 20261023 @ $2.39 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 3x $365C 20261023 @ $2.39 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 3x $365C 20261023 @ $2.39 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 2x $365C 20261023 @ $2.39 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-06 TRACKING 5x $360C 20261016 @ $2.52 (snapshot)
2026-10-06 BOT 2x $360C 20261016 @ $1.27 with no tracked leg (ignored)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 6 (live) · RSI 43 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B 13 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $341.62 (+7%) · daily UBB $359.34 · 1-wk expected move ±$19 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $347.50 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 99%, breach 1%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,206/mo); it brings $7,850/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $340/3d for $13,300/mo, but breach risk rises to 5% (+4pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $20,119 (79% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $398, recoverable in 1.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-28,282 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 (3d) · sell 5 × $347.50, 99% survival, $7,850/mo (E[net] $3,489/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡30 Oct 2026 · 3d5 × $347.5099%$7,850$3,489
NEXT FRIDAY ⚡6 Nov 2026 · 10d5 × $34079%$5,550$364
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $785 with probability 86%; on the 14% touch you roll, paying $3,767 to close and taking $1,369 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,398) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 · 3d · E[net] $3,489/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $347.50 (50% normal), 99% survival, breach 1%, $7,850/mo.
This is already the safest rung on the ladder, take it.
GOOG  spot $319.24 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸33% normal5 × $347.5030 Oct3d8.9%99%hist 95%3%hist 4%+3pp$785$7,850+$0$20,119
Sell 5 × $347.50 8.9% OTM over spot $319.24 30 Oct 2026 (3d, $1.61 mid)
= $785 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,850/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $347.50)
99%
Breach risk
1%
POP (stays ≤ $349.11)
99%
EV / mo
+$7,760
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
95% whole by 9mo vs 92% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,074/mo
median; plan ~$730/mo after 68% keep · $785 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.3], measured ONLY among the 95% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,982
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$363 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.65/sh now → $7.53 mid-life (likely $7.31–$14.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.96/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 411 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $356 (overshoots $8.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3486 Nov 20268d left+$2.74/sh+$1,369
cycle +$2,154
[+$933…+$1,948] · 99% credit
68%
surv 51%
-$16,345 NOT
cap gain +$11,918
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$35313 Nov 202616d left+$1.35/sh+$674
cycle +$1,459
[-$84…+$1,230] · 72% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$15,050 NOT
cap gain +$13,213
Max even-money escape in the band~$35820 Nov 202622d left+$0.76/sh+$382
cycle +$1,167
[-$610…+$914] · 54% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$13,614 NOT
cap gain +$14,648
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3536 Nov 20268d left+$0.04/sh+$19
cycle +$804
[-$716…+$491] · 48% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$15,705 NOT
cap gain +$12,557
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36320 Nov 202622d left-$0.96/sh-$482
cycle +$303
[-$1,812…-$34] · 24% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$12,751 NOT
cap gain +$15,512
budget: banked $785 debit $482 (61% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$303 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,479/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,850/mo
vs 50% target ($5,206/mo)+51%
vs normal income ($10,412/mo)75% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,850/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $347.50 is $42 below CC-SS $389.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$20,119
… as % of IC ($25,500)78.9%
… as % of ML ($48,000)41.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-28,282
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.57 collected) or spot ≥ $349.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $348)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $344.02Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$344-349.11
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $349.11
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$347.50 (2.3σ)$785$-17,714+$10,549+$720
+2.5%$356.19 (3.0σ)$-3,559$-19,056+$9,207-$3,624
+5%$364.88 (3.7σ)$-7,902$-20,398+$7,864-$7,967
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (6.3σ)$-24,465$-25,516+$2,747-$24,530
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $389.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,262
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,208
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $347.50): -$20,119
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,173 (+$4,089 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,184, the opportunity cost of earning $7,850/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $341.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-20,530 (+$7,732 vs today)
▸🎯 50% normal5 × $347.5030 Oct3d8.9%99%hist 95%3%hist 4%+3pp$785$7,850—$20,119
Sell 5 × $347.50 8.9% OTM over spot $319.24 30 Oct 2026 (3d, $1.61 mid)
= $785 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,850/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $347.50)
99%
Breach risk
1%
POP (stays ≤ $349.11)
99%
EV / mo
+$7,760
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
95% whole by 9mo vs 92% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,074/mo
median; plan ~$730/mo after 68% keep · $785 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.3], measured ONLY among the 95% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,982
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$363 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.65/sh now → $7.53 mid-life (likely $7.31–$14.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.96/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 411 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $356 (overshoots $8.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3486 Nov 20268d left+$2.74/sh+$1,369
cycle +$2,154
[+$933…+$1,948] · 99% credit
68%
surv 51%
-$16,345 NOT
cap gain +$11,918
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$35313 Nov 202616d left+$1.35/sh+$674
cycle +$1,459
[-$84…+$1,230] · 72% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$15,050 NOT
cap gain +$13,213
Max even-money escape in the band~$35820 Nov 202622d left+$0.76/sh+$382
cycle +$1,167
[-$610…+$914] · 54% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$13,614 NOT
cap gain +$14,648
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3536 Nov 20268d left+$0.04/sh+$19
cycle +$804
[-$716…+$491] · 48% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$15,705 NOT
cap gain +$12,557
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36320 Nov 202622d left-$0.96/sh-$482
cycle +$303
[-$1,812…-$34] · 24% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$12,751 NOT
cap gain +$15,512
budget: banked $785 debit $482 (61% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$303 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,479/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,850/mo
vs 50% target ($5,206/mo)+51%
vs normal income ($10,412/mo)75% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,850/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $347.50 is $42 below CC-SS $389.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$20,119
… as % of IC ($25,500)78.9%
… as % of ML ($48,000)41.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-28,282
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.57 collected) or spot ≥ $349.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $348)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $344.02Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$344-349.11
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $349.11
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$347.50 (2.3σ)$785$-17,714+$10,549+$720
+2.5%$356.19 (3.0σ)$-3,559$-19,056+$9,207-$3,624
+5%$364.88 (3.7σ)$-7,902$-20,398+$7,864-$7,967
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (6.3σ)$-24,465$-25,516+$2,747-$24,530
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $389.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,262
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,208
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $347.50): -$20,119
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,173 (+$4,089 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,184, the opportunity cost of earning $7,850/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $341.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-20,530 (+$7,732 vs today)
▸100% normal5 × $342.5030 Oct3d7.3%97%hist 95%7%hist 4%+2pp$1,125$11,250+$3,400$22,279
Sell 5 × $342.50 7.3% OTM over spot $319.24 30 Oct 2026 (3d, $2.30 mid)
= $1,125 credit for the 3d cycle → $11,250/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $342.50)
97%
Breach risk
3%
POP (stays ≤ $344.80)
98%
EV / mo
+$10,920
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
96% whole by 9mo vs 94% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,114/mo
median; plan ~$1,438/mo after 68% keep · $1,125 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.5], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
21%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,588
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$363 @ 81% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.50/sh now → $7.43 mid-life (likely $7.25–$14.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.18/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 616 simulated challenges: the $342 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $351 (overshoots $8.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3426 Nov 20268d left+$2.83/sh+$1,417
cycle +$2,542
[+$963…+$1,964] · 99% credit
68%
surv 51%
-$17,684 NOT
cap gain +$10,578
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$34813 Nov 202616d left+$1.47/sh+$737
cycle +$1,862
[-$42…+$1,271] · 73% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$16,374 NOT
cap gain +$11,888
Max even-money escape in the band~$35320 Nov 202622d left+$0.91/sh+$455
cycle +$1,580
[-$622…+$940] · 54% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$14,928 NOT
cap gain +$13,334
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3486 Nov 20268d left+$0.14/sh+$68
cycle +$1,193
[-$695…+$501] · 49% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$17,044 NOT
cap gain +$11,219
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36320 Nov 202622d left-$2.24/sh-$1,118
cycle +$7
[-$2,874…-$751] · 6% credit
81%
surv 76%
-$13,047 NOT
cap gain +$15,215
budget: banked $1,125 debit $1,118 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,538/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$11,250/mo
vs 50% target ($5,206/mo)+116%
vs normal income ($10,412/mo)108% covered
Net income (after hedge)$11,250/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $342.50 is $47 below CC-SS $389.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$22,279
… as % of IC ($25,500)87.4%
… as % of ML ($48,000)46.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-28,287
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.25 collected) or spot ≥ $344.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $342)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $339.07Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$339-344.80
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $344.80
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$342.50 (1.9σ)$1,125$-19,101+$9,161+$1,060
+2.5%$351.06 (2.6σ)$-3,156$-20,424+$7,838-$3,221
+5%$359.62 (3.2σ)$-7,438$-21,747+$6,516-$7,502
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (6.3σ)$-26,625$-27,676+$587-$26,690
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $389.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,262
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,208
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $342.50): -$22,279
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,333 (+$1,929 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,344, the opportunity cost of earning $11,250/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $341.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-20,530 (+$7,732 vs today)
▸🛡 safe yield5 × $34030 Oct3d6.5%95%hist 95%10%hist 13%+4pp$1,330$13,300+$5,450$23,324
Sell 5 × $340 6.5% OTM over spot $319.24 30 Oct 2026 (3d, $2.74 mid)
= $1,330 credit for the 3d cycle → $13,300/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $340)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $342.74)
97%
EV / mo
+$12,704
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
96% whole by 9mo vs 92% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,908/mo
median; plan ~$1,977/mo after 68% keep · $1,330 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.2], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
23%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,356
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$361 @ 81% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.42/sh now → $7.37 mid-life (likely $7.65–$13.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.71/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 696 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $348 (overshoots $7.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3406 Nov 20268d left+$2.88/sh+$1,440
cycle +$2,770
[+$954…+$1,950] · 99% credit
68%
surv 51%
-$18,319 NOT
cap gain +$9,943
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$34613 Nov 202616d left+$1.53/sh+$767
cycle +$2,097
[-$144…+$1,255] · 72% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$17,003 NOT
cap gain +$11,260
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3466 Nov 20268d left+$0.18/sh+$91
cycle +$1,421
[-$762…+$492] · 46% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$17,679 NOT
cap gain +$10,584
Max even-money escape in the band~$35320 Nov 202622d left+$0.04/sh+$22
cycle +$1,352
[-$1,264…+$417] · 39% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$15,157 NOT
cap gain +$13,106
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36120 Nov 202622d left-$2.17/sh-$1,083
cycle +$247
[-$2,771…-$833] · 5% credit
81%
surv 76%
-$13,671 NOT
cap gain +$14,592
budget: banked $1,330 debit $1,083 (81% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$247 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,549/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$13,300/mo
vs 50% target ($5,206/mo)+155%
vs normal income ($10,412/mo)128% covered
Net income (after hedge)$13,300/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $340 is $49 below CC-SS $389.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$23,324
… as % of IC ($25,500)91.5%
… as % of ML ($48,000)48.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-28,300
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.67/sh (~25% of the $2.66 collected) or spot ≥ $342.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $340)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $336.60Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$337-342.74
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $342.74
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$340.00 (1.7σ)$1,330$-19,760+$8,503+$1,265
+2.5%$348.50 (2.4σ)$-2,920$-21,073+$7,189-$2,985
+5%$357.00 (3.0σ)$-7,170$-22,386+$5,876-$7,235
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (6.3σ)$-27,670$-28,721-$458-$27,735
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $389.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,262
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,208
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $340): -$23,324
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,378 (+$884 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,389, the opportunity cost of earning $13,300/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $341.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-20,530 (+$7,732 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 10d · E[net] $364/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $340 (50% normal), 79% survival, breach 21%, $5,550/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $347.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $1,965/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $347.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GOOG to stay flat-to-down near term.
GOOG  spot $319.24 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸🛡 safe yield5 × $3556 Nov10d11.2%90%hist 95%20%hist 23%+1pp$760$2,280-$3,270$16,394
Sell 5 × $355 11.2% OTM over spot $319.24 6 Nov 2026 (10d, $1.58 mid)
= $760 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,280/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $355)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $356.58)
91%
EV / mo
+$1,131
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+1pp
94% whole by 9mo vs 92% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$0/mo
median; plan ~$0/mo after 68% keep · $0 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.3], measured ONLY among the 94% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,719
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$363 @ 73% POP
63% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.67/sh now → $8.96 mid-life (likely $6.96–$12.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.44/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 376 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $360 (overshoots $5.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$35513 Nov 202612d left+$1.22/sh+$608
cycle +$1,368
[+$463…+$1,571] · 95% credit
67%
surv 51%
-$14,539 NOT
cap gain +$13,723
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$35613 Nov 202612d left+$0.85/sh+$423
cycle +$1,183
[+$238…+$1,371] · 86% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$14,462 NOT
cap gain +$13,801
Max even-money escape in the band~$36120 Nov 202619d left+$0.14/sh+$72
cycle +$832
[-$343…+$1,159] · 62% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$13,085 NOT
cap gain +$15,177
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36320 Nov 202619d left-$0.89/sh-$443
cycle +$317
[-$948…+$605] · 45% credit
73%
surv 63%
-$12,737 NOT
cap gain +$15,526
budget: banked $760 debit $443 (58% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$317 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,372/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,280/mo
vs 50% target ($5,206/mo)-56%
vs normal income ($10,412/mo)22% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,280/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $355 is $34 below CC-SS $389.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$16,394
… as % of IC ($25,500)64.3%
… as % of ML ($48,000)34.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-28,292
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.52 collected) or spot ≥ $356.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $351.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$351-356.58
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $356.58
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$355.00 (1.6σ)$760$-15,147+$13,115+$695
+2.5%$363.87 (2.0σ)$-3,677$-16,519+$11,744-$3,742
+5%$372.75 (2.4σ)$-8,115$-17,890+$10,373-$8,180
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (3.5σ)$-20,740$-21,791+$6,472-$20,805
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $389.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,262
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,208
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$16,394
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,448 (+$7,814 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,459, the opportunity cost of earning $2,280/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $341.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-20,530 (+$7,732 vs today)
▸33% normal ← lean5 × $347.506 Nov10d8.9%85%hist 86%30%hist 30%+4pp$1,195$3,585-$1,965$19,709
Sell 5 × $347.50 8.9% OTM over spot $319.24 6 Nov 2026 (10d, $2.45 mid)
= $1,195 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,585/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $347.50)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $349.94)
87%
EV / mo
+$1,521
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
97% whole by 9mo vs 93% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$0/mo
median; plan ~$0/mo after 68% keep · $0 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.4], measured ONLY among the 97% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
23%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,189
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$361 @ 76% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.40/sh now → $8.77 mid-life (likely $8.09–$12.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.38/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 690 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $353 (overshoots $5.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$34813 Nov 202612d left+$1.44/sh+$718
cycle +$1,913
[+$411…+$1,529] · 96% credit
67%
surv 51%
-$16,586 NOT
cap gain +$11,676
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$35120 Nov 202619d left+$1.53/sh+$767
cycle +$1,962
[+$243…+$1,628] · 86% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$15,411 NOT
cap gain +$12,852
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$34813 Nov 202612d left+$1.07/sh+$533
cycle +$1,728
[+$177…+$1,318] · 85% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$16,508 NOT
cap gain +$11,754
Max even-money escape in the band~$35320 Nov 202619d left+$0.40/sh+$198
cycle +$1,393
[-$444…+$962] · 54% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$15,116 NOT
cap gain +$13,147
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36120 Nov 202619d left-$2.38/sh-$1,189
cycle +$6
[-$2,083…-$612] · 13% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$13,911 NOT
cap gain +$14,351
budget: banked $1,195 debit $1,189 (100% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,045/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,585/mo
vs 50% target ($5,206/mo)-31%
vs normal income ($10,412/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,585/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $347.50 is $42 below CC-SS $389.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$19,709
… as % of IC ($25,500)77.3%
… as % of ML ($48,000)41.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-28,290
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.39 collected) or spot ≥ $349.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $348)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $344.02Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$344-349.94
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $349.94
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$347.50 (1.2σ)$1,195$-17,304+$10,959+$1,130
+2.5%$356.19 (1.6σ)$-3,149$-18,646+$9,617-$3,214
+5%$364.88 (2.0σ)$-7,492$-19,988+$8,274-$7,557
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (3.5σ)$-24,055$-25,106+$3,157-$24,120
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $389.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,262
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,208
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $347.50): -$19,709
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,763 (+$4,499 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,774, the opportunity cost of earning $3,585/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $341.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-20,530 (+$7,732 vs today)
▸🎯 50% normal5 × $3406 Nov10d6.5%79%hist 83%44%hist 40%+4pp$1,850$5,550—$22,804
Sell 5 × $340 6.5% OTM over spot $319.24 6 Nov 2026 (10d, $3.83 mid)
= $1,850 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,550/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $340)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $343.82)
82%
EV / mo
+$1,940
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
97% whole by 9mo vs 93% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$0/mo
median; plan ~$0/mo after 68% keep · $0 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.3], measured ONLY among the 97% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
33%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,440
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$358 @ 80% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.13/sh now → $8.58 mid-life (likely $8.62–$13.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.88/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 987 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $345 (overshoots $5.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$34013 Nov 202612d left+$1.64/sh+$822
cycle +$2,672
[+$349…+$1,263] · 97% credit
67%
surv 51%
-$18,418 NOT
cap gain +$9,844
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$34320 Nov 202619d left+$1.77/sh+$886
cycle +$2,736
[+$181…+$1,348] · 87% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$17,228 NOT
cap gain +$11,035
Max even-money escape in the band~$34620 Nov 202619d left+$0.64/sh+$318
cycle +$2,168
[-$478…+$671] · 49% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$16,932 NOT
cap gain +$11,330
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$34313 Nov 202612d left+$0.04/sh+$20
cycle +$1,870
[-$593…+$317] · 37% credit
69%
surv 57%
-$18,093 NOT
cap gain +$10,169
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$35820 Nov 202619d left-$3.60/sh-$1,799
cycle +$51
[-$3,056…-$1,683] · 2% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$14,730 NOT
cap gain +$13,532
budget: banked $1,850 debit $1,799 (97% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,933/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,550/mo
vs 50% target ($5,206/mo)+7%
vs normal income ($10,412/mo)53% covered
Net income (after hedge)$5,550/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $340 is $49 below CC-SS $389.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$22,804
… as % of IC ($25,500)89.4%
… as % of ML ($48,000)47.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-28,325
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.93/sh (~25% of the $3.70 collected) or spot ≥ $343.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $340)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $336.60Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$337-343.82
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $343.82
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$340.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,850$-19,240+$9,023+$1,785
+2.5%$348.50 (1.3σ)$-2,400$-20,553+$7,709-$2,465
+5%$357.00 (1.7σ)$-6,650$-21,866+$6,396-$6,715
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (3.5σ)$-27,150$-28,201+$62-$27,215
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $389.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,262
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,208
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $340): -$22,804
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,858 (+$1,404 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,869, the opportunity cost of earning $5,550/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $341.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-20,530 (+$7,732 vs today)
▸100% normal5 × $327.506 Nov10d2.6%64%hist 66%75%hist 68%+4pp$3,675$11,025+$5,475$27,229
Sell 5 × $327.50 2.6% OTM over spot $319.24 6 Nov 2026 (10d, $7.53 mid)
= $3,675 credit for the 10d cycle → $11,025/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $327.50)
64%
Breach risk
36%
POP (stays ≤ $335.02)
73%
EV / mo
+$2,651
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
98% whole by 9mo vs 94% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.5/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$11,734/mo
median; plan ~$7,979/mo after 68% keep · $3,675 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.3], measured ONLY among the 98% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
60%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$457
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$363 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.69/sh now → $8.26 mid-life (likely $10.55–$14.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $7.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.91/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,794 simulated challenges: the $328 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $333 (overshoots $5.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$32813 Nov 202612d left+$1.97/sh+$984
cycle +$4,659
[+$288…+$813] · 97% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$20,750 NOT
cap gain +$7,513
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$33120 Nov 202619d left+$2.14/sh+$1,070
cycle +$4,745
[+$77…+$789] · 81% credit
70%
surv 56%
-$19,538 NOT
cap gain +$8,725
Max even-money escape in the band~$33320 Nov 202619d left+$1.00/sh+$502
cycle +$4,177
[-$606…+$154] · 30% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$19,241 NOT
cap gain +$9,021
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$33113 Nov 202612d left+$0.37/sh+$183
cycle +$3,858
[-$669…-$83] · 21% credit
69%
surv 57%
-$20,424 NOT
cap gain +$7,839
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36320 Nov 202619d left-$6.38/sh-$3,190
cycle +$485
[-$5,580…-$4,077]
90%
surv 89%
-$12,569 NOT
cap gain +$15,694
budget: banked $3,675 debit $3,190 (87% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$485 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,487/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$11,025/mo
vs 50% target ($5,206/mo)+112%
vs normal income ($10,412/mo)106% covered
Net income (after hedge)$11,025/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $327.50 is $62 below CC-SS $389.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$27,229
… as % of IC ($25,500)106.8%
… as % of ML ($48,000)56.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-28,350
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.84/sh (~25% of the $7.35 collected) or spot ≥ $335.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $328)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $324.23Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$324-335.02
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $335.02
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.69 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$327.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,675$-21,734+$6,529+$3,610
+2.5%$335.69 (≤1σ, normal week)$-419$-22,999+$5,264-$484
+5%$343.88 (1.1σ)$-4,512$-24,264+$3,999-$4,578
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (3.5σ)$-31,575$-32,626-$4,363-$31,640
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $389.31, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,262
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,208
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $327.50): -$27,229
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,283 ($-3,021 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,989 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,294, the opportunity cost of earning $11,025/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $341.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,385, position total $-23,915 (+$4,347 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (42 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 42 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.691 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$24,208 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,989

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$347.503d30 Oct 2026$1.575/5$785$7,850$7,85099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$7,760-$20,11978.9%1.9mo$-24,173 (vs do-nothing $-20,184)
$3453d30 Oct 2026$1.895/5$945$9,450$9,45098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$9,274-$21,20983.2%2.0mo$-25,263 (vs do-nothing $-21,274)
$342.503d30 Oct 2026$2.255/5$1,125$11,250$11,25097%hist 95%7%hist 4%98%+$10,920-$22,27987.4%2.1mo$-26,333 (vs do-nothing $-22,344)
$3403d30 Oct 2026$2.665/5$1,330$13,300$13,30095%hist 95%10%hist 13%97%+$12,704-$23,32491.5%2.2mo$-27,378 (vs do-nothing $-23,389)
$352.503d30 Oct 2026$1.085/5$540$5,400$5,40092%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$2,836-$17,86470.1%1.7mo$-21,918 (vs do-nothing $-17,929)
$3503d30 Oct 2026$1.305/5$650$6,500$6,50090%hist 95%20%hist 23%91%+$3,190-$19,00474.5%1.8mo$-23,058 (vs do-nothing $-19,069)
$3353d30 Oct 2026$3.755/5$1,875$18,750$18,75090%hist 86%21%hist 23%94%+$17,000-$25,27999.1%2.4mo$-29,333 (vs do-nothing $-25,344)
$332.503d30 Oct 2026$4.355/5$2,175$21,750$21,75086%hist 86%29%hist 23%92%+$18,908-$26,229102.9%2.5mo$-30,283 (vs do-nothing $-26,294)
$3303d30 Oct 2026$5.155/5$2,575$25,750$25,75081%hist 86%39%hist 30%90%+$21,293-$27,079106.2%2.6mo$-31,133 (vs do-nothing $-27,144)
$337.503d30 Oct 2026$3.105/5$1,550$15,500$15,50079%hist 83%43%hist 40%82%+$5,321-$24,35495.5%2.3mo$-28,408 (vs do-nothing $-24,419)
$34010d6 Nov 2026$3.705/5$1,850$5,550$5,55079%hist 83%44%hist 40%82%+$1,940-$22,80489.4%2.2mo$-26,858 (vs do-nothing $-22,869)
$337.5010d6 Nov 2026$4.305/5$2,150$6,450$6,45076%hist 83%49%hist 40%81%+$2,135-$23,75493.2%2.3mo$-27,808 (vs do-nothing $-23,819)
$33510d6 Nov 2026$4.905/5$2,450$7,350$7,35073%hist 83%55%hist 44%79%+$2,217-$24,70496.9%2.4mo$-28,758 (vs do-nothing $-24,769)
Show 29 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$332.5010d6 Nov 2026$5.655/5$2,825$8,475$8,47570%hist 83%61%hist 54%77%+$2,400-$25,579100.3%2.5mo$-29,633 (vs do-nothing $-25,644)
$332.5017d13 Nov 2026$6.655/5$3,325$5,868$5,86869%hist 66%65%hist 54%76%+$1,549-$25,07998.3%2.4mo$-29,133 (vs do-nothing $-25,144)
$33010d6 Nov 2026$6.455/5$3,225$9,675$9,67567%hist 66%68%hist 54%75%+$2,523-$26,429103.6%2.5mo$-30,483 (vs do-nothing $-26,494)
$33017d13 Nov 2026$7.705/5$3,850$6,794$6,79466%hist 66%71%hist 68%75%+$1,807-$25,804101.2%2.5mo$-29,858 (vs do-nothing $-25,869)
$327.503d30 Oct 2026$6.005/5$3,000$30,000$30,00065%hist 66%72%hist 68%74%+$7,532-$27,904109.4%2.7mo$-31,958 (vs do-nothing $-27,969)
$33024d20 Nov 2026$8.855/5$4,425$5,531$5,53165%hist 66%73%hist 68%74%+$1,455-$25,22998.9%2.4mo$-29,283 (vs do-nothing $-25,294)
$327.5010d6 Nov 2026$7.355/5$3,675$11,025$11,02564%hist 66%75%hist 68%73%+$2,651-$27,229106.8%2.6mo$-31,283 (vs do-nothing $-27,294)
$327.5017d13 Nov 2026$8.455/5$4,225$7,456$7,45663%hist 66%77%hist 68%73%+$1,722-$26,679104.6%2.6mo$-30,733 (vs do-nothing $-26,744)
$327.5024d20 Nov 2026$9.705/5$4,850$6,062$6,06262%hist 66%79%hist 68%73%+$1,431-$26,054102.2%2.5mo$-30,108 (vs do-nothing $-26,119)
$3253d30 Oct 2026$6.905/5$3,450$34,500$34,50061%hist 66%80%hist 68%72%+$7,629-$28,704112.6%2.8mo$-32,758 (vs do-nothing $-28,769)
$32510d6 Nov 2026$8.305/5$4,150$12,450$12,45060%hist 66%82%hist 79%71%+$2,702-$28,004109.8%2.7mo$-32,058 (vs do-nothing $-28,069)
$32517d13 Nov 2026$9.455/5$4,725$8,338$8,33859%hist 70%84%hist 79%71%+$1,775-$27,429107.6%2.6mo$-31,483 (vs do-nothing $-27,494)
$32524d20 Nov 2026$10.755/5$5,375$6,719$6,71959%hist 70%85%hist 79%71%+$1,479-$26,779105.0%2.6mo$-30,833 (vs do-nothing $-26,844)
$322.503d30 Oct 2026$8.005/5$4,000$40,000$40,00057%hist 70%88%hist 79%70%+$8,134-$29,404115.3%2.8mo$-33,458 (vs do-nothing $-29,469)
$322.5010d6 Nov 2026$9.555/5$4,775$14,325$14,32556%hist 70%90%hist 79%70%+$3,042-$28,629112.3%2.7mo$-32,683 (vs do-nothing $-28,694)
$322.5017d13 Nov 2026$10.555/5$5,275$9,309$9,30956%hist 70%91%hist 89%70%+$1,830-$28,129110.3%2.7mo$-32,183 (vs do-nothing $-28,194)
$322.5024d20 Nov 2026$11.905/5$5,950$7,438$7,43856%hist 70%92%hist 89%70%+$1,535-$27,454107.7%2.6mo$-31,508 (vs do-nothing $-27,519)
$32024d20 Nov 2026$13.055/5$6,525$8,156$8,15653%hist 70%98%hist 89%68%+$1,535-$28,129110.3%2.7mo$-32,183 (vs do-nothing $-28,194)
$32017d13 Nov 2026$11.805/5$5,900$10,412$10,41253%hist 70%98%hist 89%68%+$1,929-$28,754112.8%2.8mo$-32,808 (vs do-nothing $-28,819)
$32010d6 Nov 2026$10.605/5$5,300$15,900$15,90053%hist 70%98%hist 89%68%+$2,918-$29,354115.1%2.8mo$-33,408 (vs do-nothing $-29,419)
$3203d30 Oct 2026$9.105/5$4,550$45,500$45,50053%hist 70%97%hist 89%68%+$8,029-$30,104118.1%2.9mo$-34,158 (vs do-nothing $-30,169)
$317.5024d20 Nov 2026$14.355/5$7,175$8,969$8,96950%100%hist 89%67%+$1,574-$28,729112.7%2.8mo$-32,783 (vs do-nothing $-28,794)
$317.5017d13 Nov 2026$13.005/5$6,500$11,471$11,47149%100%hist 89%67%+$1,893-$29,404115.3%2.8mo$-33,458 (vs do-nothing $-29,469)
$317.5010d6 Nov 2026$11.955/5$5,975$17,925$17,92549%100%hist 89%66%+$3,077-$29,929117.4%2.9mo$-33,983 (vs do-nothing $-29,994)
$317.503d30 Oct 2026$10.355/5$5,175$51,750$51,75048%100%hist 89%66%+$8,053-$30,729120.5%3.0mo$-34,783 (vs do-nothing $-30,794)
$31524d20 Nov 2026$15.705/5$7,850$9,812$9,81247%100%hist 89%66%+$1,587-$29,304114.9%2.8mo$-33,358 (vs do-nothing $-29,369)
$31517d13 Nov 2026$14.455/5$7,225$12,750$12,75046%100%hist 89%65%+$1,987-$29,929117.4%2.9mo$-33,983 (vs do-nothing $-29,994)
$31510d6 Nov 2026$13.205/5$6,600$19,800$19,80045%100%hist 89%65%+$2,917-$30,554119.8%2.9mo$-34,608 (vs do-nothing $-30,619)
$3153d30 Oct 2026$11.655/5$5,825$58,250$58,25044%100%hist 89%64%+$7,704-$31,329122.9%3.0mo$-35,383 (vs do-nothing $-31,394)
94 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$4103d30 Oct 2026$0.025/5$10$100$10099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$73-$00.0%0.0mo$-4,044 (vs do-nothing $-55)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4053d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$50$5099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$15-$00.0%0.0mo$-4,049 (vs do-nothing $-60)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4003d30 Oct 2026$0.055/5$25$250$25099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$206-$00.0%0.0mo$-4,029 (vs do-nothing $-40)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$397.503d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$50$5099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%$-0-$00.0%0.0mo$-4,049 (vs do-nothing $-60)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3953d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$50$5099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%$-8-$00.0%0.0mo$-4,049 (vs do-nothing $-60)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$392.503d30 Oct 2026$0.025/5$10$100$10099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$34-$00.0%0.0mo$-4,044 (vs do-nothing $-55)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$41010d6 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$105$10599%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$75-$00.0%0.0mo$-4,019 (vs do-nothing $-30)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3903d30 Oct 2026$0.075/5$35$350$35099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$273-$00.0%0.0mo$-4,019 (vs do-nothing $-30)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$387.503d30 Oct 2026$0.075/5$35$350$35099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$259-$8693.4%0.1mo$-4,923 (vs do-nothing $-934)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40510d6 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$120$12099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$81-$00.0%0.0mo$-4,014 (vs do-nothing $-25)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3853d30 Oct 2026$0.095/5$45$450$45099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$340-$2,1098.3%0.2mo$-6,163 (vs do-nothing $-2,174)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$41017d13 Nov 2026$0.125/5$60$106$10699%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$73-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,994 (vs do-nothing $-5)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40010d6 Nov 2026$0.135/5$65$195$19599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$144-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,989 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$382.503d30 Oct 2026$0.085/5$40$400$40099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$261-$3,36413.2%0.3mo$-7,418 (vs do-nothing $-3,429)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40517d13 Nov 2026$0.155/5$75$132$13299%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$89-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,979 (vs do-nothing +$10)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39510d6 Nov 2026$0.145/5$70$210$21099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$143-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,984 (vs do-nothing +$5)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3803d30 Oct 2026$0.135/5$65$650$65099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$473-$4,58918.0%0.4mo$-8,643 (vs do-nothing $-4,654)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40017d13 Nov 2026$0.225/5$110$194$19499%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$138-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,944 (vs do-nothing +$45)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$377.503d30 Oct 2026$0.105/5$50$500$50099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$279-$5,85423.0%0.6mo$-9,908 (vs do-nothing $-5,919)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39010d6 Nov 2026$0.195/5$95$285$28598%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$195-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,959 (vs do-nothing +$30)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$41024d20 Nov 2026$0.285/5$140$175$17598%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$122-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,914 (vs do-nothing +$75)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$387.5010d6 Nov 2026$0.225/5$110$330$33098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$225-$7943.1%0.1mo$-4,848 (vs do-nothing $-859)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3753d30 Oct 2026$0.165/5$80$800$80098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$524-$7,07427.7%0.7mo$-11,128 (vs do-nothing $-7,139)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39517d13 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$88$8898%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$13-$00.0%0.0mo$-4,004 (vs do-nothing $-15)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40524d20 Nov 2026$0.305/5$150$188$18898%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$123-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,904 (vs do-nothing +$85)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38510d6 Nov 2026$0.255/5$125$375$37598%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$253-$2,0298.0%0.2mo$-6,083 (vs do-nothing $-2,094)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$392.5017d13 Nov 2026$0.115/5$55$97$9798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$11-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,999 (vs do-nothing $-10)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$372.503d30 Oct 2026$0.195/5$95$950$95098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$602-$8,30932.6%0.8mo$-12,363 (vs do-nothing $-8,374)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40024d20 Nov 2026$0.395/5$195$244$24498%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$164-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,859 (vs do-nothing +$130)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$382.5010d6 Nov 2026$0.285/5$140$420$42098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$276-$3,26412.8%0.3mo$-7,318 (vs do-nothing $-3,329)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3703d30 Oct 2026$0.245/5$120$1,200$1,20098%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$758-$9,53437.4%0.9mo$-13,588 (vs do-nothing $-9,599)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38010d6 Nov 2026$0.365/5$180$540$54097%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$370-$4,47417.5%0.4mo$-8,528 (vs do-nothing $-4,539)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$387.5017d13 Nov 2026$0.155/5$75$132$13297%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$16-$8293.3%0.1mo$-4,883 (vs do-nothing $-894)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39524d20 Nov 2026$0.445/5$220$275$27597%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$175-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,834 (vs do-nothing +$155)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$367.503d30 Oct 2026$0.295/5$145$1,450$1,45097%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$918-$10,75942.2%1.0mo$-14,813 (vs do-nothing $-10,824)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38517d13 Nov 2026$0.215/5$105$185$18597%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$50-$2,0498.0%0.2mo$-6,103 (vs do-nothing $-2,114)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$377.5010d6 Nov 2026$0.415/5$205$615$61597%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$413-$5,69922.3%0.5mo$-9,753 (vs do-nothing $-5,764)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39024d20 Nov 2026$0.535/5$265$331$33197%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$204-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,789 (vs do-nothing +$200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$382.5017d13 Nov 2026$0.235/5$115$203$20397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$45-$3,28912.9%0.3mo$-7,343 (vs do-nothing $-3,354)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37510d6 Nov 2026$0.475/5$235$705$70597%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$463-$6,91927.1%0.7mo$-10,973 (vs do-nothing $-6,984)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3653d30 Oct 2026$0.345/5$170$1,700$1,70097%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$980-$11,98447.0%1.2mo$-16,038 (vs do-nothing $-12,049)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38017d13 Nov 2026$0.555/5$275$485$48596%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$300-$4,37917.2%0.4mo$-8,433 (vs do-nothing $-4,444)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$372.5010d6 Nov 2026$0.545/5$270$810$81096%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$519-$8,13431.9%0.8mo$-12,188 (vs do-nothing $-8,199)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38524d20 Nov 2026$0.665/5$330$412$41296%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$249-$1,8247.2%0.2mo$-5,878 (vs do-nothing $-1,889)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.503d30 Oct 2026$0.465/5$230$2,300$2,30096%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$1,427-$13,17451.7%1.3mo$-17,228 (vs do-nothing $-13,239)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$377.5017d13 Nov 2026$0.575/5$285$503$50396%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$285-$5,61922.0%0.5mo$-9,673 (vs do-nothing $-5,684)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37010d6 Nov 2026$0.625/5$310$930$93096%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$578-$9,34436.6%0.9mo$-13,398 (vs do-nothing $-9,409)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37517d13 Nov 2026$0.665/5$330$582$58295%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$326-$6,82426.8%0.7mo$-10,878 (vs do-nothing $-6,889)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38024d20 Nov 2026$0.825/5$410$512$51295%hist 95%10%hist 4%96%+$298-$4,24416.6%0.4mo$-8,298 (vs do-nothing $-4,309)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$367.5010d6 Nov 2026$0.675/5$335$1,005$1,00595%hist 95%10%hist 4%95%+$579-$10,56941.4%1.0mo$-14,623 (vs do-nothing $-10,634)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3603d30 Oct 2026$0.605/5$300$3,000$3,00095%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$1,765-$14,35456.3%1.4mo$-18,408 (vs do-nothing $-14,419)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37017d13 Nov 2026$0.915/5$455$803$80394%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$468-$9,19936.1%0.9mo$-13,253 (vs do-nothing $-9,264)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36510d6 Nov 2026$0.795/5$395$1,185$1,18594%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$666-$11,75946.1%1.1mo$-15,813 (vs do-nothing $-11,824)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37524d20 Nov 2026$1.025/5$510$637$63794%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$354-$6,64426.1%0.6mo$-10,698 (vs do-nothing $-6,709)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$357.503d30 Oct 2026$0.735/5$365$3,650$3,65094%hist 95%12%hist 13%94%+$2,124-$15,53960.9%1.5mo$-19,593 (vs do-nothing $-15,604)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$367.5017d13 Nov 2026$0.995/5$495$874$87494%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$467-$10,40940.8%1.0mo$-14,463 (vs do-nothing $-10,474)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.5010d6 Nov 2026$0.935/5$465$1,395$1,39594%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$763-$12,93950.7%1.2mo$-16,993 (vs do-nothing $-13,004)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3553d30 Oct 2026$0.895/5$445$4,450$4,45093%hist 95%14%hist 13%93%+$2,460-$16,70965.5%1.6mo$-20,763 (vs do-nothing $-16,774)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37024d20 Nov 2026$1.355/5$675$844$84493%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$463-$8,97935.2%0.9mo$-13,033 (vs do-nothing $-9,044)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36517d13 Nov 2026$1.195/5$595$1,050$1,05093%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$545-$11,55945.3%1.1mo$-15,613 (vs do-nothing $-11,624)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36010d6 Nov 2026$1.095/5$545$1,635$1,63593%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$863-$14,10955.3%1.4mo$-18,163 (vs do-nothing $-14,174)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.5017d13 Nov 2026$1.315/5$655$1,156$1,15692%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$597-$12,74950.0%1.2mo$-16,803 (vs do-nothing $-12,814)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$357.5010d6 Nov 2026$1.275/5$635$1,905$1,90591%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$963-$15,26959.9%1.5mo$-19,323 (vs do-nothing $-15,334)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36524d20 Nov 2026$1.685/5$840$1,050$1,05091%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$536-$11,31444.4%1.1mo$-15,368 (vs do-nothing $-11,379)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36017d13 Nov 2026$1.535/5$765$1,350$1,35091%hist 95%19%hist 13%92%+$673-$13,88954.5%1.3mo$-17,943 (vs do-nothing $-13,954)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35510d6 Nov 2026$1.525/5$760$2,280$2,28090%hist 95%20%hist 23%91%+$1,131-$16,39464.3%1.6mo$-20,448 (vs do-nothing $-16,459)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.5024d20 Nov 2026$1.905/5$950$1,188$1,18890%hist 95%20%hist 23%91%+$588-$12,45448.8%1.2mo$-16,508 (vs do-nothing $-12,519)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$357.5017d13 Nov 2026$1.765/5$880$1,553$1,55389%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$703-$15,02458.9%1.4mo$-19,078 (vs do-nothing $-15,089)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36024d20 Nov 2026$2.155/5$1,075$1,344$1,34489%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$645-$13,57953.3%1.3mo$-17,633 (vs do-nothing $-13,644)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$352.5010d6 Nov 2026$1.745/5$870$2,610$2,61089%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$1,210-$17,53468.8%1.7mo$-21,588 (vs do-nothing $-17,599)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35517d13 Nov 2026$2.045/5$1,020$1,800$1,80088%hist 86%24%hist 23%89%+$804-$16,13463.3%1.5mo$-20,188 (vs do-nothing $-16,199)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$357.5024d20 Nov 2026$2.475/5$1,235$1,544$1,54488%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$728-$14,66957.5%1.4mo$-18,723 (vs do-nothing $-14,734)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35010d6 Nov 2026$2.045/5$1,020$3,060$3,06087%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$1,358-$18,63473.1%1.8mo$-22,688 (vs do-nothing $-18,699)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$352.5017d13 Nov 2026$2.365/5$1,180$2,082$2,08286%hist 86%28%hist 23%88%+$869-$17,22467.5%1.7mo$-21,278 (vs do-nothing $-17,289)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35524d20 Nov 2026$2.765/5$1,380$1,725$1,72586%hist 86%28%hist 23%88%+$773-$15,77461.9%1.5mo$-19,828 (vs do-nothing $-15,839)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.5010d6 Nov 2026$2.395/5$1,195$3,585$3,58585%hist 86%30%hist 30%87%+$1,521-$19,70977.3%1.9mo$-23,763 (vs do-nothing $-19,774)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35017d13 Nov 2026$2.705/5$1,350$2,382$2,38285%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$976-$18,30471.8%1.8mo$-22,358 (vs do-nothing $-18,369)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$352.5024d20 Nov 2026$3.105/5$1,550$1,938$1,93885%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$827-$16,85466.1%1.6mo$-20,908 (vs do-nothing $-16,919)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34510d6 Nov 2026$2.805/5$1,400$4,200$4,20083%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$1,704-$20,75481.4%2.0mo$-24,808 (vs do-nothing $-20,819)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.5017d13 Nov 2026$3.005/5$1,500$2,647$2,64783%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$1,007-$19,40476.1%1.9mo$-23,458 (vs do-nothing $-19,469)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34517d13 Nov 2026$3.555/5$1,775$3,132$3,13281%hist 86%38%hist 30%84%+$1,230-$20,37979.9%2.0mo$-24,433 (vs do-nothing $-20,444)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35024d20 Nov 2026$3.605/5$1,800$2,250$2,25081%hist 86%38%hist 30%84%+$590-$17,85470.0%1.7mo$-21,908 (vs do-nothing $-17,919)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.5024d20 Nov 2026$3.955/5$1,975$2,469$2,46981%hist 86%38%hist 30%84%+$961-$18,92974.2%1.8mo$-22,983 (vs do-nothing $-18,994)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.5010d6 Nov 2026$3.205/5$1,600$4,800$4,80081%hist 86%39%hist 30%84%+$1,792-$21,80485.5%2.1mo$-25,858 (vs do-nothing $-21,869)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34524d20 Nov 2026$4.455/5$2,225$2,781$2,78179%hist 83%42%hist 40%83%+$1,029-$19,92978.2%1.9mo$-23,983 (vs do-nothing $-19,994)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.5017d13 Nov 2026$3.955/5$1,975$3,485$3,48579%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$1,174-$21,42984.0%2.1mo$-25,483 (vs do-nothing $-21,494)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.5024d20 Nov 2026$5.055/5$2,525$3,156$3,15677%hist 83%47%hist 40%82%+$1,123-$20,87981.9%2.0mo$-24,933 (vs do-nothing $-20,944)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34017d13 Nov 2026$4.655/5$2,325$4,103$4,10377%hist 83%48%hist 40%81%+$1,369-$22,32987.6%2.1mo$-26,383 (vs do-nothing $-22,394)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34024d20 Nov 2026$5.655/5$2,825$3,531$3,53175%hist 83%51%hist 44%80%+$1,179-$21,82985.6%2.1mo$-25,883 (vs do-nothing $-21,894)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$337.5017d13 Nov 2026$5.155/5$2,575$4,544$4,54474%hist 83%53%hist 44%79%+$1,350-$23,32991.5%2.2mo$-27,383 (vs do-nothing $-23,394)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$337.5024d20 Nov 2026$6.355/5$3,175$3,969$3,96973%hist 83%56%hist 44%79%+$1,255-$22,72989.1%2.2mo$-26,783 (vs do-nothing $-22,794)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33517d13 Nov 2026$5.855/5$2,925$5,162$5,16272%hist 83%59%hist 44%78%+$1,447-$24,22995.0%2.3mo$-28,283 (vs do-nothing $-24,294)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33524d20 Nov 2026$7.105/5$3,550$4,438$4,43870%hist 83%62%hist 54%77%+$1,318-$23,60492.6%2.3mo$-27,658 (vs do-nothing $-23,669)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$332.5024d20 Nov 2026$7.905/5$3,950$4,938$4,93868%hist 66%67%hist 54%76%+$1,364-$24,45495.9%2.3mo$-28,508 (vs do-nothing $-24,519)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-28 03:16