FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $321.77

BE SS: $398.00  |  CC-SS: $387.97  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-29 03:13

GOOG-LC340 @ $321.77   UNDERWATER $76.23 (19.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
GOOG reports 2026-10-28 (Wed), TODAY. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $398.00  |  CC-SS: $387.97 (banked floor $322.97)  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)
SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)
HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$48,000(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref$11,484/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay โ‰ˆ $1,269/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-26,662fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,742/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$11,484/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $25,500
ML VELOCITY
4.2 mo to earn back $48,000
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $387.97 (probe: $387.5C 16d) brings only $441/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
๐Ÿฆ CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$26,654
Hole (after banked)
$9
was $26,662 ยท 100% earned back
Cycles closed
37
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$387.97 → $322.97
? 9 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (37) and event log · CLOSED 23 · UNKNOWN 9 · EXPIRED 5 · updated 2026-10-29 03:10
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED5x $360C 16 Oct 2026$2.52$1,2622026-10-062026-10-16$0.25$1,137U13190865snapshot
CLOSED5x $360C 16 Oct 2026$2.52$1,2622026-10-022026-10-06$1.27$627U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $367.5C 16 Oct 2026$2.69$1,3432026-10-012026-10-02$2.69$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $350C 2 Oct 2026$1.10$5512026-09-292026-10-01$1.10$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $355C 2 Oct 2026$1.25$6232026-09-282026-09-29$1.25$0U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $340C 25 Sep 2026$0.77$3862026-09-252026-09-28$0.00$386U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $370C 2 Oct 2026$2.00$1,0002026-09-222026-09-25$2.00$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $355C 25 Sep 2026$1.76$8822026-09-182026-09-22$1.76$0U13190865snapshot
CLOSED5x $345C 11 Sep 2026$0.78$3892026-09-092026-09-09$0.22$279U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $350C 11 Sep 2026$0.70$3522026-09-082026-09-09$0.70$0U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $345C 4 Sep 2026$0.88$4382026-09-012026-09-08$0.00$438U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $357.5C 28 Aug 2026$0.92$4622026-08-252026-08-31$0.00$462U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $350C 21 Aug 2026$1.25$6242026-08-182026-08-24$0.00$624U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $400C 20 Nov 2026$7.13$7132026-08-132026-08-18$6.43$70U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $400C 20 Nov 2026$7.13$7132026-08-132026-08-18$6.43$70U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $400C 20 Nov 2026$7.13$7132026-08-132026-08-18$6.43$70U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $400C 20 Nov 2026$7.13$7132026-08-132026-08-18$6.42$71U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $400C 20 Nov 2026$7.13$7132026-08-132026-08-18$6.43$70U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $420C 20 Nov 2026$7.25$3,6232026-08-102026-08-13$7.25$0U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 18 Sep 2026$4.80$4802026-07-292026-08-10$8.24$-344U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 18 Sep 2026$4.80$4802026-07-292026-08-10$8.25$-345U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 18 Sep 2026$4.80$4802026-07-292026-08-10$8.25$-345U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 18 Sep 2026$4.80$4802026-07-292026-08-10$8.25$-345U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 18 Sep 2026$4.80$4802026-07-292026-08-10$8.24$-344U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $342.5C 7 Aug 2026$2.11$4212026-07-272026-07-29$4.44$-467U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $342.5C 7 Aug 2026$2.11$2112026-07-272026-07-29$4.44$-233U13190865snapshot
CLOSED2x $342.5C 7 Aug 2026$2.11$4212026-07-272026-07-29$4.44$-467U13190865snapshot
CLOSED15x $370C 31 Jul 2026$15.01$22,5202026-07-172026-07-23$0.18$22,250U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN15x $360C 17 Jul 2026$1.87$2,8052026-07-142026-07-17$1.87$0U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$652026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$14U13190865execution
CLOSED4x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$2602026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$56U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$1302026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$28U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$1302026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$28U13190865execution
CLOSED4x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$2602026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$56U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $370C 17 Jul 2026$0.65$1302026-07-142026-07-14$0.51$28U13190865execution
UNKNOWN5x $400C 31 Jul 2026$3.20$1,5982026-07-072026-07-14$3.20$0U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED15x $375C 10 Jul 2026$1.85$2,7792026-07-072026-07-11$0.00$2,779U13190865seed
Event log
2026-10-21 BOT 15x $355C 20261023 @ $0.46 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 2x $360C 20261023 @ $0.78 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 3x $360C 20261023 @ $0.78 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 3x $360C 20261023 @ $0.78 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 3x $360C 20261023 @ $0.78 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 1x $360C 20261023 @ $0.79 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 BOT 3x $360C 20261023 @ $0.78 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 2x $355C 20261023 @ $1.45 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 3x $355C 20261023 @ $1.45 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 3x $355C 20261023 @ $1.45 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 3x $355C 20261023 @ $1.44 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 1x $355C 20261023 @ $1.45 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 SLD 3x $355C 20261023 @ $1.44 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-16 CLOSED 5x $360C 20261016: banked $1,137
2026-10-15 BOT 2x $365C 20261023 @ $1.06 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 BOT 2x $365C 20261023 @ $1.06 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 BOT 2x $365C 20261023 @ $1.06 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 BOT 3x $365C 20261023 @ $1.06 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 BOT 6x $365C 20261023 @ $1.06 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 SLD 2x $360C 20261023 @ $1.71 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-15 SLD 2x $360C 20261023 @ $1.71 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-15 SLD 2x $360C 20261023 @ $1.71 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-15 SLD 3x $360C 20261023 @ $1.71 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-15 SLD 6x $360C 20261023 @ $1.71 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 1x $355C 20261016 @ $2.98 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 1x $355C 20261016 @ $2.94 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 2x $355C 20261016 @ $2.95 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 1x $365C 20261023 @ $2.38 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 1x $365C 20261023 @ $2.34 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 2x $365C 20261023 @ $2.35 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 3x $355C 20261016 @ $2.99 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 3x $355C 20261016 @ $2.99 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 3x $355C 20261016 @ $2.99 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 BOT 2x $355C 20261016 @ $2.99 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 3x $365C 20261023 @ $2.39 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 3x $365C 20261023 @ $2.39 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 3x $365C 20261023 @ $2.39 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-13 SLD 2x $365C 20261023 @ $2.39 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-06 TRACKING 5x $360C 20261016 @ $2.52 (snapshot)
2026-10-06 BOT 2x $360C 20261016 @ $1.27 with no tracked leg (ignored)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK ยท %B 10 (live) ยท RSI 44 ยท MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) ยท RSI 40 ยท %B 21 ยท hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $341.76 (+6%) ยท daily UBB $359.55 ยท 1-wk expected move ยฑ$20 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: ๐ŸŽฏ or ๐Ÿ’Ž at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
โš  Next earnings 2026-10-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $360 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 93%, breach 7%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,742/mo); it brings $6,600/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 ร— $335/2d for $36,375/mo, but breach risk rises to 12% (+5pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 ร— $390/2d (99% survival, $750/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $13,546 (53% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $398, recoverable in 1.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-26,670 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 (2d) · sell 5 × $360, 93% survival, $6,600/mo (E[net] $6,600/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡30 Oct 2026 · 2d5 × $36093%$6,600$6,600
NEXT FRIDAY ⚡6 Nov 2026 · 9d5 × $34580%$6,083$292
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $440 with probability 100%; on the 0% touch you roll, paying $4,194 to close and taking $1,333 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,860) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 · 2d · E[net] $6,600/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

๐ŸŽฏ Engine pick: sell 5 ร— $360 (50% normal), 93% survival, breach 7%, $6,600/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (โ‰ˆ1ฯƒ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $365 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 95% (breach 7% โ†’ 5%) for $2,100/mo less (32% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
GOOG  spot $321.77 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸33% normal5 × $36530 Oct2d13.4%95%hist 95%10%hist 13%+1pp$300$4,500-$2,100$11,186
Sell 5 ร— $365 13.4% OTM over spot $321.77 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.61 mid)
= $300 credit for the 2d cycle โ†’ $4,500/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $365)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays โ‰ค $365.61)
95%
EV / mo
+$2,569
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+1pp
96% whole by 9mo vs 96% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$0/mo
median; plan ~$0/mo after 68% keep · $0 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.0 mo [0.0-0.1], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
0%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,952
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$378 @ 75% POP
67% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.03/sh now โ†’ $8.50 mid-life โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.90/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3656 Nov 20268d left+$2.57/sh+$1,284
cycle +$1,584
67%
surv 51%
-$9,905 NOT
cap gain +$16,757
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3716 Nov 20268d left+$0.01/sh+$6
cycle +$306
71%
surv 60%
-$9,172 NOT
cap gain +$17,491
Max even-money escape in the band~$37620 Nov 202622d left+$0.33/sh+$166
cycle +$466
73%
surv 64%
-$7,257 NOT
cap gain +$19,406
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$37820 Nov 202622d left-$0.56/sh-$282
cycle +$18
75%
surv 67%
-$6,827 NOT
cap gain +$19,836
budget: banked $300 debit $282 (94% used โ‰ˆ 0.3 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$18 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $5,414/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,500/mo
vs 50% target ($5,742/mo)-22%
vs normal income ($11,484/mo)39% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,500/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $365 is $23 below CC-SS $387.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$11,186
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($25,500)43.9%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,000)23.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,668
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $365.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $361.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$361-365.61		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $365.61		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$365.00 (3.9ฯƒ)$300$-11,189+$15,474+$145
+2.5%$374.12 (4.7ฯƒ)$-4,262$-12,548+$14,114-$4,417
+5%$383.25 (5.6ฯƒ)$-8,825$-13,908+$12,754-$8,980
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (6.9ฯƒ)$-16,200$-16,106+$10,557-$16,355
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $387.97, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,237
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $365): -$11,186
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,612 (+$12,051 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,271 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,341, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $341.76 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-19,646 (+$7,016 vs today)
▸๐ŸŽฏ 50% normal5 × $36030 Oct2d11.9%93%hist 95%14%hist 13%+2pp$440$6,600—$13,546
Sell 5 ร— $360 11.9% OTM over spot $321.77 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.90 mid)
= $440 credit for the 2d cycle โ†’ $6,600/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $360)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays โ‰ค $360.89)
93%
EV / mo
+$3,437
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
96% whole by 9mo vs 94% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$3,896/mo
median; plan ~$2,650/mo after 68% keep · $440 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.1], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
0%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,754
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$373 @ 75% POP
67% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.86/sh now โ†’ $8.39 mid-life โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.51/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3606 Nov 20268d left+$2.67/sh+$1,333
cycle +$1,773
67%
surv 52%
-$11,471 NOT
cap gain +$15,192
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3666 Nov 20268d left+$0.11/sh+$56
cycle +$496
71%
surv 60%
-$10,737 NOT
cap gain +$15,926
Max even-money escape in the band~$37120 Nov 202622d left+$0.49/sh+$245
cycle +$685
73%
surv 64%
-$8,792 NOT
cap gain +$17,870
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$37320 Nov 202622d left-$0.40/sh-$202
cycle +$238
75%
surv 67%
-$8,362 NOT
cap gain +$18,300
budget: banked $440 debit $202 (46% used โ‰ˆ 0.1 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$238 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $5,442/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,600/mo
vs 50% target ($5,742/mo)+15%
vs normal income ($11,484/mo)57% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,600/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $360 is $28 below CC-SS $387.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$13,546
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($25,500)53.1%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,000)28.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,670
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $360.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $356.40Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$356-360.89		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $360.89		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$360.00 (3.5ฯƒ)$440$-12,804+$13,859+$285
+2.5%$369.00 (4.3ฯƒ)$-4,060$-14,145+$12,518-$4,215
+5%$378.00 (5.1ฯƒ)$-8,560$-15,486+$11,177-$8,715
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (6.9ฯƒ)$-18,560$-18,466+$8,197-$18,715
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $387.97, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,237
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $360): -$13,546
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,972 (+$9,691 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,271 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,701, the opportunity cost of earning $6,600/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $341.76 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-19,646 (+$7,016 vs today)
▸๐Ÿ›ก safe yield5 × $35530 Oct2d10.3%90%hist 95%20%hist 13%+2pp$635$9,525+$2,925$15,851
Sell 5 ร— $355 10.3% OTM over spot $321.77 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $1.29 mid)
= $635 credit for the 2d cycle โ†’ $9,525/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $355)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays โ‰ค $356.30)
91%
EV / mo
+$4,452
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
98% whole by 9mo vs 96% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$5,757/mo
median; plan ~$3,915/mo after 68% keep · $635 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.2], measured ONLY among the 98% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
0%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,500
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$371 @ 77% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.70/sh now โ†’ $8.27 mid-life โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.00/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3556 Nov 20268d left+$2.76/sh+$1,381
cycle +$2,016
67%
surv 52%
-$12,983 NOT
cap gain +$13,680
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3616 Nov 20268d left+$0.21/sh+$104
cycle +$739
71%
surv 60%
-$12,249 NOT
cap gain +$14,414
Max even-money escape in the band~$36620 Nov 202622d left+$0.64/sh+$322
cycle +$957
73%
surv 64%
-$10,276 NOT
cap gain +$16,387
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$37120 Nov 202622d left-$1.00/sh-$500
cycle +$135
77%
surv 70%
-$9,342 NOT
cap gain +$17,320
budget: banked $635 debit $500 (79% used โ‰ˆ 0.2 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$135 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $4,957/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,525/mo
vs 50% target ($5,742/mo)+66%
vs normal income ($11,484/mo)83% covered
Net income (after hedge)$9,525/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $355 is $33 below CC-SS $387.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$15,851
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($25,500)62.2%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,000)33.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,675
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.27 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $356.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $351.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$351-356.30		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $356.30		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$355.00 (3.0ฯƒ)$635$-14,364+$12,299+$480
+2.5%$363.87 (3.8ฯƒ)$-3,802$-15,686+$10,976-$3,957
+5%$372.75 (4.6ฯƒ)$-8,240$-17,009+$9,654-$8,395
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (6.9ฯƒ)$-20,865$-20,771+$5,892-$21,020
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $387.97, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,237
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $355): -$15,851
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,277 (+$7,386 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,271 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,006, the opportunity cost of earning $9,525/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $341.76 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-19,646 (+$7,016 vs today)
▸100% normal5 × $33530 Oct2d4.1%88%hist 86%23%hist 23%+5pp$2,425$36,375+$29,775$24,061
Sell 5 ร— $335 4.1% OTM over spot $321.77 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $4.90 mid)
= $2,425 credit for the 2d cycle โ†’ $36,375/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $335)
88%
Breach risk
12%
POP (stays โ‰ค $339.90)
95%
EV / mo
+$33,651
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
100% whole by 9mo vs 95% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$8,540/mo
median; plan ~$5,807/mo after 68% keep · $2,425 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.0 mo [0.0-0.1], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,477
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$368 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.04/sh now โ†’ $7.80 mid-life (likely $8.50โ€“$16.17) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $4.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.95/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 384 simulated challenges: the $335 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $339 (overshoots $4.35). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$33613 Nov 202615d left+$4.09/sh+$2,045
cycle +$4,470
[-$685โ€ฆ+$1,893] ยท 66% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$17,293 NOT
cap gain +$9,370
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3356 Nov 20268d left+$3.10/sh+$1,552
cycle +$3,977
[-$1,265โ€ฆ+$1,363] ยท 58% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$18,041 NOT
cap gain +$8,621
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3416 Nov 20268d left+$0.56/sh+$278
cycle +$2,703
[-$2,820โ€ฆ+$47] ยท 26% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$17,304 NOT
cap gain +$9,358
Max even-money escape in the band~$34820 Nov 202622d left+$0.30/sh+$150
cycle +$2,575
[-$3,025โ€ฆ-$40] ยท 24% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$14,800 NOT
cap gain +$11,863
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36820 Nov 202622d left-$4.47/sh-$2,237
cycle +$188
[-$5,965โ€ฆ-$2,528]
86%
surv 84%
-$10,167 NOT
cap gain +$16,496
budget: banked $2,425 debit $2,237 (92% used โ‰ˆ 0.3 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$188 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $2,271/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$36,375/mo
vs 50% target ($5,742/mo)+533%
vs normal income ($11,484/mo)317% covered
Net income (after hedge)$36,375/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $335 is $53 below CC-SS $387.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$24,061
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($25,500)94.4%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,000)50.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,688
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.21/sh (~25% of the $4.85 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $339.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $335)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $331.65Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$332-339.90		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $339.90		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$335.00 (1.2ฯƒ)$2,425$-19,594+$7,069+$2,270
+2.5%$343.37 (2.0ฯƒ)$-1,762$-20,842+$5,821-$1,917
+5%$351.75 (2.7ฯƒ)$-5,950$-22,090+$4,573-$6,105
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (6.9ฯƒ)$-29,075$-28,981-$2,318-$29,230
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $387.97, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,237
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $335): -$24,061
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,487 ($-824 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,271 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,216, the opportunity cost of earning $36,375/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $341.76 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$955, position total $-20,601 (+$6,061 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 9d · E[net] $292/mo

๐ŸŽฏ Engine pick: sell 5 ร— $345 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $6,083/mo.
โš–๏ธ Worth a safer step: the $352.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 20% โ†’ 14%) for $2,150/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (โ‰ˆ1ฯƒ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $352.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GOOG to stay flat-to-down near term.
GOOG  spot $321.77 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸๐Ÿ›ก safe yield5 × $3606 Nov9d11.9%90%hist 95%19%hist 13%+1pp$745$2,483-$3,600$13,241
Sell 5 ร— $360 11.9% OTM over spot $321.77 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $1.54 mid)
= $745 credit for the 9d cycle โ†’ $2,483/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $360)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays โ‰ค $361.55)
91%
EV / mo
+$1,193
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+1pp
96% whole by 9mo vs 96% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$0/mo
median; plan ~$0/mo after 68% keep · $0 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.2], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,929
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$368 @ 73% POP
62% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $13.22/sh now โ†’ $9.35 mid-life (likely $8.08โ€“$12.84) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.86/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 410 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $366 (overshoots $5.83). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36013 Nov 202612d left+$1.37/sh+$687
cycle +$1,432
[+$515โ€ฆ+$1,815] ยท 97% credit
67%
surv 51%
-$11,811 NOT
cap gain +$14,851
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$36113 Nov 202612d left+$1.01/sh+$504
cycle +$1,249
[+$316โ€ฆ+$1,560] ยท 91% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$11,738 NOT
cap gain +$14,924
Max even-money escape in the band~$36620 Nov 202618d left+$0.46/sh+$230
cycle +$975
[-$228โ€ฆ+$1,292] ยท 65% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$10,258 NOT
cap gain +$16,405
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36820 Nov 202618d left-$0.57/sh-$287
cycle +$458
[-$814โ€ฆ+$703] ยท 45% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$9,897 NOT
cap gain +$16,766
budget: banked $745 debit $287 (38% used โ‰ˆ 0.5 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$458 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $7,313/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,483/mo
vs 50% target ($5,742/mo)-57%
vs normal income ($11,484/mo)22% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,483/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $360 is $28 below CC-SS $387.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$13,241
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($25,500)51.9%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,000)27.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,690
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.49 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $361.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $356.40Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$356-361.55		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $361.55		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$360.00 (1.6ฯƒ)$745$-12,499+$14,164+$590
+2.5%$369.00 (2.0ฯƒ)$-3,755$-13,840+$12,823-$3,910
+5%$378.00 (2.4ฯƒ)$-8,255$-15,181+$11,482-$8,410
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (3.3ฯƒ)$-18,255$-18,161+$8,502-$18,410
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $387.97, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,237
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $360): -$13,241
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,667 (+$9,996 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,271 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,396, the opportunity cost of earning $2,483/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $341.76 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-19,646 (+$7,016 vs today)
▸33% normal ← lean5 × $352.506 Nov9d9.6%86%hist 86%29%hist 23%+1pp$1,180$3,933-$2,150$16,556
Sell 5 ร— $352.50 9.6% OTM over spot $321.77 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $2.43 mid)
= $1,180 credit for the 9d cycle โ†’ $3,933/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $352.50)
86%
Breach risk
14%
POP (stays โ‰ค $354.93)
88%
EV / mo
+$1,666
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+1pp
96% whole by 9mo vs 95% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$0/mo
median; plan ~$0/mo after 68% keep · $0 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.2], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
20%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,397
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$366 @ 76% POP
68% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.94/sh now โ†’ $9.15 mid-life (likely $8.35โ€“$13.96) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.79/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 595 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $359 (overshoots $6.07). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$35213 Nov 202612d left+$1.58/sh+$792
cycle +$1,972
[+$462โ€ฆ+$1,665] ยท 98% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$13,904 NOT
cap gain +$12,759
Max even-money escape in the band~$35820 Nov 202618d left+$0.70/sh+$351
cycle +$1,531
[-$305โ€ฆ+$1,189] ยท 61% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$12,334 NOT
cap gain +$14,329
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$35613 Nov 202612d left+$0.03/sh+$13
cycle +$1,193
[-$494โ€ฆ+$735] ยท 50% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$13,549 NOT
cap gain +$13,113
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36620 Nov 202618d left-$2.17/sh-$1,085
cycle +$95
[-$2,078โ€ฆ-$470] ยท 16% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$11,138 NOT
cap gain +$15,525
budget: banked $1,180 debit $1,085 (92% used โ‰ˆ 1.2 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$95 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $5,820/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,933/mo
vs 50% target ($5,742/mo)-32%
vs normal income ($11,484/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,933/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $352.50 is $35 below CC-SS $387.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$16,556
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($25,500)64.9%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,000)34.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,698
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.36 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $354.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $348.98Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$349-354.93		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $354.93		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$352.50 (1.3ฯƒ)$1,180$-14,696+$11,966+$1,025
+2.5%$361.31 (1.7ฯƒ)$-3,226$-16,009+$10,653-$3,381
+5%$370.12 (2.1ฯƒ)$-7,632$-17,322+$9,340-$7,788
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (3.3ฯƒ)$-21,570$-21,476+$5,187-$21,725
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $387.97, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,237
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $352.50): -$16,556
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,982 (+$6,681 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,271 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,711, the opportunity cost of earning $3,933/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $341.76 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-19,646 (+$7,016 vs today)
▸๐ŸŽฏ 50% normal5 × $3456 Nov9d7.2%80%hist 83%41%hist 40%+2pp$1,825$6,083—$19,661
Sell 5 ร— $345 7.2% OTM over spot $321.77 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $3.75 mid)
= $1,825 credit for the 9d cycle โ†’ $6,083/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $345)
80%
Breach risk
20%
POP (stays โ‰ค $348.75)
83%
EV / mo
+$2,169
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
97% whole by 9mo vs 95% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$0/mo
median; plan ~$0/mo after 68% keep · $0 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.0 mo [0.0-0.1], measured ONLY among the 97% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
33%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,655
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$363 @ 79% POP
74% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.67/sh now โ†’ $8.96 mid-life (likely $8.94โ€“$13.80) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.31/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 985 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $351 (overshoots $5.86). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$34513 Nov 202612d left+$1.79/sh+$893
cycle +$2,718
[+$405โ€ฆ+$1,556] ยท 98% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$15,791 NOT
cap gain +$10,871
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$34820 Nov 202618d left+$2.03/sh+$1,013
cycle +$2,838
[+$278โ€ฆ+$1,609] ยท 90% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$14,537 NOT
cap gain +$12,126
Max even-money escape in the band~$35120 Nov 202618d left+$0.93/sh+$466
cycle +$2,291
[-$353โ€ฆ+$989] ยท 56% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$14,207 NOT
cap gain +$12,456
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$34813 Nov 202612d left+$0.23/sh+$114
cycle +$1,939
[-$520โ€ฆ+$555] ยท 44% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$15,436 NOT
cap gain +$11,226
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$36320 Nov 202618d left-$3.37/sh-$1,687
cycle +$138
[-$2,956โ€ฆ-$1,438] ยท 5% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$11,972 NOT
cap gain +$14,690
budget: banked $1,825 debit $1,687 (92% used โ‰ˆ 1.2 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$138 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $4,654/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,083/mo
vs 50% target ($5,742/mo)+6%
vs normal income ($11,484/mo)53% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,083/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $345 is $43 below CC-SS $387.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$19,661
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($25,500)77.1%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,000)41.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,712
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.91/sh (~25% of the $3.65 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $348.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $345)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $341.55Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$342-348.75		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $348.75		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$345.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$1,825$-16,684+$9,979+$1,670
+2.5%$353.62 (1.4ฯƒ)$-2,487$-17,969+$8,694-$2,642
+5%$362.25 (1.7ฯƒ)$-6,800$-19,254+$7,408-$6,955
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (3.3ฯƒ)$-24,675$-24,581+$2,082-$24,830
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $387.97, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,237
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $345): -$19,661
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,087 (+$3,576 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,271 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,816, the opportunity cost of earning $6,083/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $341.76 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-19,646 (+$7,016 vs today)
▸100% normal5 × $332.506 Nov9d3.3%66%hist 66%70%hist 54%+4pp$3,500$11,667+$5,583$24,236
Sell 5 ร— $332.50 3.3% OTM over spot $321.77 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $7.15 mid)
= $3,500 credit for the 9d cycle โ†’ $11,667/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $332.50)
66%
Breach risk
34%
POP (stays โ‰ค $339.65)
74%
EV / mo
+$2,776
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
99% whole by 9mo vs 96% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.3/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$0/mo
median; plan ~$0/mo after 68% keep · $0 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.2], measured ONLY among the 99% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
54%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$817
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$371 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.21/sh now โ†’ $8.63 mid-life (likely $10.76โ€“$14.95) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $7.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,631 simulated challenges: the $332 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $338 (overshoots $5.78). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC		If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$33213 Nov 202612d left+$2.10/sh+$1,048
cycle +$4,548
[+$337โ€ฆ+$929] ยท 98% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$18,348 NOT
cap gain +$8,314
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$33620 Nov 202618d left+$2.38/sh+$1,189
cycle +$4,689
[+$181โ€ฆ+$991] ยท 88% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$17,073 NOT
cap gain +$9,589
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$33613 Nov 202612d left+$0.54/sh+$270
cycle +$3,770
[-$582โ€ฆ+$75] ยท 28% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$17,993 NOT
cap gain +$8,670
Max even-money escape in the band~$34120 Nov 202618d left+$0.25/sh+$127
cycle +$3,627
[-$1,085โ€ฆ-$209] ยท 19% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$16,380 NOT
cap gain +$10,282
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$37120 Nov 202618d left-$6.62/sh-$3,312
cycle +$188
[-$5,726โ€ฆ-$4,145]
90%
surv 89%
-$9,289 NOT
cap gain +$17,373
budget: banked $3,500 debit $3,312 (95% used โ‰ˆ 1.2 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$188 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $1,675/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$11,667/mo
vs 50% target ($5,742/mo)+103%
vs normal income ($11,484/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$11,667/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $332.50 is $55 below CC-SS $387.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$24,236
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($25,500)95.0%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,000)50.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,738
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.75/sh (~25% of the $7.00 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $339.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $332)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $359.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $329.18Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$329-339.65		Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $339.65		Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.70 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$332.50 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$3,500$-19,396+$7,266+$3,345
+2.5%$340.81 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$-656$-20,635+$6,028-$811
+5%$349.12 (1.2ฯƒ)$-4,812$-21,873+$4,789-$4,968
SS (= V-bounce)$398.00 (3.3ฯƒ)$-29,250$-29,156-$2,493-$29,405
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $387.97, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,662
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,237
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $332.50): -$24,236
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,662 ($-999 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,271 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,391, the opportunity cost of earning $11,667/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $341.76 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,130, position total $-20,776 (+$5,886 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (46 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 46 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ŸŽฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.702 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$23,237 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,271

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$3602d30 Oct 2026$0.885/5$440$6,600$6,60093%hist 95%14%hist 13%93%+$3,437-$13,54653.1%1.2mo$-16,972 (vs do-nothing $-13,701)
$357.502d30 Oct 2026$1.055/5$525$7,875$7,87592%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$3,855-$14,71157.7%1.3mo$-18,137 (vs do-nothing $-14,866)
$3552d30 Oct 2026$1.275/5$635$9,525$9,52590%hist 95%20%hist 13%91%+$4,452-$15,85162.2%1.4mo$-19,277 (vs do-nothing $-16,006)
$352.502d30 Oct 2026$1.515/5$755$11,325$11,32589%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$4,967-$16,98166.6%1.5mo$-20,407 (vs do-nothing $-17,136)
$3352d30 Oct 2026$4.855/5$2,425$36,375$36,37588%hist 86%23%hist 23%95%+$33,651-$24,06194.4%2.1mo$-27,487 (vs do-nothing $-24,216)
$3502d30 Oct 2026$1.835/5$915$13,725$13,72587%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$5,803-$18,07170.9%1.6mo$-21,497 (vs do-nothing $-18,226)
$347.502d30 Oct 2026$2.125/5$1,060$15,900$15,90085%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$6,075-$19,17675.2%1.7mo$-22,602 (vs do-nothing $-19,331)
$332.502d30 Oct 2026$5.555/5$2,775$41,625$41,62584%hist 86%33%hist 30%93%+$36,976-$24,96197.9%2.2mo$-28,387 (vs do-nothing $-25,116)
$3452d30 Oct 2026$2.535/5$1,265$18,975$18,97583%hist 86%35%hist 30%85%+$6,938-$20,22179.3%1.8mo$-23,647 (vs do-nothing $-20,376)
$342.502d30 Oct 2026$3.005/5$1,500$22,500$22,50080%hist 86%40%hist 40%83%+$7,776-$21,23683.3%1.8mo$-24,662 (vs do-nothing $-21,391)
$3459d6 Nov 2026$3.655/5$1,825$6,083$6,08380%hist 83%41%hist 40%83%+$2,169-$19,66177.1%1.7mo$-23,087 (vs do-nothing $-19,816)
$3402d30 Oct 2026$3.555/5$1,775$26,625$26,62578%hist 83%46%hist 40%82%+$8,845-$22,21187.1%1.9mo$-25,637 (vs do-nothing $-22,366)
$3302d30 Oct 2026$6.405/5$3,200$48,000$48,00077%hist 83%46%hist 40%91%+$40,416-$25,786101.1%2.2mo$-29,212 (vs do-nothing $-25,941)
Show 33 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$342.509d6 Nov 2026$4.155/5$2,075$6,917$6,91777%hist 83%46%hist 40%81%+$2,256-$20,66181.0%1.8mo$-24,087 (vs do-nothing $-20,816)
$3409d6 Nov 2026$4.755/5$2,375$7,917$7,91775%hist 83%52%hist 44%80%+$2,395-$21,61184.7%1.9mo$-25,037 (vs do-nothing $-21,766)
$337.502d30 Oct 2026$4.105/5$2,050$30,750$30,75074%hist 83%52%hist 44%79%+$8,800-$23,18690.9%2.0mo$-26,612 (vs do-nothing $-23,341)
$337.509d6 Nov 2026$5.405/5$2,700$9,000$9,00072%hist 83%57%hist 44%78%+$2,491-$22,53688.4%2.0mo$-25,962 (vs do-nothing $-22,691)
$337.5016d13 Nov 2026$6.505/5$3,250$6,094$6,09471%hist 83%61%hist 54%77%+$1,661-$21,98686.2%1.9mo$-25,412 (vs do-nothing $-22,141)
$327.502d30 Oct 2026$7.305/5$3,650$54,750$54,75070%hist 83%60%hist 54%88%+$42,914-$26,586104.3%2.3mo$-30,012 (vs do-nothing $-26,741)
$3359d6 Nov 2026$6.205/5$3,100$10,333$10,33369%hist 66%63%hist 54%76%+$2,703-$23,38691.7%2.0mo$-26,812 (vs do-nothing $-23,541)
$33516d13 Nov 2026$7.305/5$3,650$6,844$6,84468%hist 66%66%hist 54%76%+$1,768-$22,83689.6%2.0mo$-26,262 (vs do-nothing $-22,991)
$332.509d6 Nov 2026$7.005/5$3,500$11,667$11,66766%hist 66%70%hist 54%74%+$2,776-$24,23695.0%2.1mo$-27,662 (vs do-nothing $-24,391)
$332.5016d13 Nov 2026$8.155/5$4,075$7,641$7,64165%hist 66%72%hist 68%74%+$1,848-$23,66192.8%2.1mo$-27,087 (vs do-nothing $-23,816)
$332.5023d20 Nov 2026$9.305/5$4,650$6,065$6,06564%hist 66%74%hist 68%74%+$1,442-$23,08690.5%2.0mo$-26,512 (vs do-nothing $-23,241)
$3309d6 Nov 2026$7.905/5$3,950$13,167$13,16763%hist 66%76%hist 68%73%+$2,871-$25,03698.2%2.2mo$-28,462 (vs do-nothing $-25,191)
$33016d13 Nov 2026$9.105/5$4,550$8,531$8,53162%hist 66%78%hist 68%73%+$1,944-$24,43695.8%2.1mo$-27,862 (vs do-nothing $-24,591)
$3252d30 Oct 2026$8.355/5$4,175$62,625$62,62562%hist 66%77%hist 68%86%+$44,924-$27,311107.1%2.4mo$-30,737 (vs do-nothing $-27,466)
$33023d20 Nov 2026$10.305/5$5,150$6,717$6,71762%hist 66%80%hist 79%72%+$1,511-$23,83693.5%2.1mo$-27,262 (vs do-nothing $-23,991)
$327.509d6 Nov 2026$8.905/5$4,450$14,833$14,83360%hist 70%83%hist 79%71%+$2,982-$25,786101.1%2.2mo$-29,212 (vs do-nothing $-25,941)
$327.5016d13 Nov 2026$10.055/5$5,025$9,422$9,42259%hist 70%85%hist 79%71%+$1,959-$25,21198.9%2.2mo$-28,637 (vs do-nothing $-25,366)
$327.5023d20 Nov 2026$11.355/5$5,675$7,402$7,40259%hist 70%86%hist 79%71%+$1,560-$24,56196.3%2.1mo$-27,987 (vs do-nothing $-24,716)
$3259d6 Nov 2026$10.005/5$5,000$16,667$16,66756%hist 70%91%hist 89%69%+$3,107-$26,486103.9%2.3mo$-29,912 (vs do-nothing $-26,641)
$32516d13 Nov 2026$11.055/5$5,525$10,359$10,35956%hist 70%91%hist 89%70%+$1,936-$25,961101.8%2.3mo$-29,387 (vs do-nothing $-26,116)
$32523d20 Nov 2026$12.455/5$6,225$8,120$8,12056%hist 70%92%hist 89%69%+$1,587-$25,26199.1%2.2mo$-28,687 (vs do-nothing $-25,416)
$322.502d30 Oct 2026$9.505/5$4,750$71,250$71,25053%hist 70%95%hist 89%83%+$45,839-$27,986109.7%2.4mo$-31,412 (vs do-nothing $-28,141)
$322.5023d20 Nov 2026$13.655/5$6,825$8,902$8,90253%hist 70%98%hist 89%68%+$1,627-$25,911101.6%2.3mo$-29,337 (vs do-nothing $-26,066)
$322.5016d13 Nov 2026$12.255/5$6,125$11,484$11,48453%hist 70%98%hist 89%68%+$2,014-$26,611104.4%2.3mo$-30,037 (vs do-nothing $-26,766)
$322.509d6 Nov 2026$11.105/5$5,550$18,500$18,50053%hist 70%98%hist 89%68%+$3,074-$27,186106.6%2.4mo$-30,612 (vs do-nothing $-27,341)
$32023d20 Nov 2026$14.805/5$7,400$9,652$9,65250%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$1,579-$26,586104.3%2.3mo$-30,012 (vs do-nothing $-26,741)
$32016d13 Nov 2026$13.505/5$6,750$12,656$12,65650%100%hist 89%67%+$2,044-$27,236106.8%2.4mo$-30,662 (vs do-nothing $-27,391)
$3209d6 Nov 2026$12.305/5$6,150$20,500$20,50049%100%hist 89%66%+$3,046-$27,836109.2%2.4mo$-31,262 (vs do-nothing $-27,991)
$317.5023d20 Nov 2026$16.155/5$8,075$10,533$10,53347%100%hist 89%66%+$1,607-$27,161106.5%2.4mo$-30,587 (vs do-nothing $-27,316)
$317.5016d13 Nov 2026$14.805/5$7,400$13,875$13,87546%100%hist 89%65%+$2,040-$27,836109.2%2.4mo$-31,262 (vs do-nothing $-27,991)
$317.509d6 Nov 2026$13.655/5$6,825$22,750$22,75046%100%hist 89%65%+$3,102-$28,411111.4%2.5mo$-31,837 (vs do-nothing $-28,566)
$3202d30 Oct 2026$10.705/5$5,350$80,250$80,25044%100%hist 89%80%+$45,158-$28,636112.3%2.5mo$-32,062 (vs do-nothing $-28,791)
$317.502d30 Oct 2026$12.005/5$6,000$90,000$90,00035%100%hist 89%77%+$43,262-$29,236114.7%2.5mo$-32,662 (vs do-nothing $-29,391)
84 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$4052d30 Oct 2026$0.045/5$20$300$30099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$217-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,406 (vs do-nothing $-135)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4002d30 Oct 2026$0.065/5$30$450$45099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$349-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,396 (vs do-nothing $-125)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$397.502d30 Oct 2026$0.025/5$10$150$15099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$35-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,416 (vs do-nothing $-145)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3952d30 Oct 2026$0.075/5$35$525$52599%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$393-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,391 (vs do-nothing $-120)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$392.502d30 Oct 2026$0.055/5$25$375$37599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$221-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,401 (vs do-nothing $-130)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3902d30 Oct 2026$0.105/5$50$750$75099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$565-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,376 (vs do-nothing $-105)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4059d6 Nov 2026$0.095/5$45$150$15099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$93-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,381 (vs do-nothing $-110)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$387.502d30 Oct 2026$0.115/5$55$825$82599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$599-$1810.7%0.0mo$-3,607 (vs do-nothing $-336)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4009d6 Nov 2026$0.185/5$90$300$30099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$221-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,336 (vs do-nothing $-65)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3852d30 Oct 2026$0.125/5$60$900$90099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$618-$1,4265.6%0.1mo$-4,852 (vs do-nothing $-1,581)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40516d13 Nov 2026$0.215/5$105$197$19799%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$134-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,321 (vs do-nothing $-50)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$382.502d30 Oct 2026$0.155/5$75$1,125$1,12599%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$769-$2,66110.4%0.2mo$-6,087 (vs do-nothing $-2,816)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3959d6 Nov 2026$0.205/5$100$333$33398%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$225-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,326 (vs do-nothing $-55)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3802d30 Oct 2026$0.205/5$100$1,500$1,50098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$1,047-$3,88615.2%0.3mo$-7,312 (vs do-nothing $-4,041)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$392.509d6 Nov 2026$0.235/5$115$383$38398%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$257-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,311 (vs do-nothing $-40)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40016d13 Nov 2026$0.315/5$155$291$29198%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$205-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,271 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3909d6 Nov 2026$0.285/5$140$467$46798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$318-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,286 (vs do-nothing $-15)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$377.502d30 Oct 2026$0.245/5$120$1,800$1,80098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$1,224-$5,11620.1%0.4mo$-8,542 (vs do-nothing $-5,271)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$387.509d6 Nov 2026$0.295/5$145$483$48398%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$309-$910.4%0.0mo$-3,517 (vs do-nothing $-246)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3752d30 Oct 2026$0.265/5$130$1,950$1,95097%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$1,219-$6,35624.9%0.6mo$-9,782 (vs do-nothing $-6,511)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40523d20 Nov 2026$0.465/5$230$300$30097%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$189-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,196 (vs do-nothing +$75)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3859d6 Nov 2026$0.355/5$175$583$58397%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$377-$1,3115.1%0.1mo$-4,737 (vs do-nothing $-1,466)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$392.5016d13 Nov 2026$0.385/5$190$356$35697%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$217-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,236 (vs do-nothing +$35)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$382.509d6 Nov 2026$0.355/5$175$583$58397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$338-$2,56110.0%0.2mo$-5,987 (vs do-nothing $-2,716)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40023d20 Nov 2026$0.615/5$305$398$39897%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$267-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,121 (vs do-nothing +$150)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$372.502d30 Oct 2026$0.325/5$160$2,400$2,40097%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$1,472-$7,57629.7%0.7mo$-11,002 (vs do-nothing $-7,731)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39016d13 Nov 2026$0.475/5$235$441$44197%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$277-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,191 (vs do-nothing +$80)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3809d6 Nov 2026$0.455/5$225$750$75097%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$456-$3,76114.7%0.3mo$-7,187 (vs do-nothing $-3,916)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$387.5016d13 Nov 2026$0.475/5$235$441$44197%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$248-$10.0%0.0mo$-3,427 (vs do-nothing $-156)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39523d20 Nov 2026$0.655/5$325$424$42497%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$262-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,101 (vs do-nothing +$170)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3702d30 Oct 2026$0.425/5$210$3,150$3,15096%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$1,970-$8,77634.4%0.8mo$-12,202 (vs do-nothing $-8,931)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38516d13 Nov 2026$0.565/5$280$525$52596%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$298-$1,2064.7%0.1mo$-4,632 (vs do-nothing $-1,361)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$377.509d6 Nov 2026$0.515/5$255$850$85096%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$498-$4,98119.5%0.4mo$-8,407 (vs do-nothing $-5,136)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$367.502d30 Oct 2026$0.495/5$245$3,675$3,67596%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$2,168-$9,99139.2%0.9mo$-13,417 (vs do-nothing $-10,146)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39023d20 Nov 2026$0.795/5$395$515$51596%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$301-$00.0%0.0mo$-3,031 (vs do-nothing +$240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$382.5016d13 Nov 2026$0.645/5$320$600$60096%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$332-$2,4169.5%0.2mo$-5,842 (vs do-nothing $-2,571)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3759d6 Nov 2026$0.615/5$305$1,017$1,01796%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$594-$6,18124.2%0.5mo$-9,607 (vs do-nothing $-6,336)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38016d13 Nov 2026$0.725/5$360$675$67595%hist 95%10%hist 4%95%+$360-$3,62614.2%0.3mo$-7,052 (vs do-nothing $-3,781)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$372.509d6 Nov 2026$0.685/5$340$1,133$1,13395%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$625-$7,39629.0%0.6mo$-10,822 (vs do-nothing $-7,551)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3652d30 Oct 2026$0.605/5$300$4,500$4,50095%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$2,569-$11,18643.9%1.0mo$-14,612 (vs do-nothing $-11,341)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38523d20 Nov 2026$0.955/5$475$620$62095%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$354-$1,0114.0%0.1mo$-4,437 (vs do-nothing $-1,166)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$377.5016d13 Nov 2026$0.845/5$420$788$78895%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$416-$4,81618.9%0.4mo$-8,242 (vs do-nothing $-4,971)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3709d6 Nov 2026$0.815/5$405$1,350$1,35094%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$739-$8,58133.7%0.7mo$-12,007 (vs do-nothing $-8,736)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.502d30 Oct 2026$0.725/5$360$5,400$5,40094%hist 95%12%hist 13%94%+$2,925-$12,37648.5%1.1mo$-15,802 (vs do-nothing $-12,531)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37516d13 Nov 2026$0.955/5$475$891$89194%hist 95%12%hist 13%94%+$453-$6,01123.6%0.5mo$-9,437 (vs do-nothing $-6,166)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38023d20 Nov 2026$1.215/5$605$789$78994%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$425-$3,38113.3%0.3mo$-6,807 (vs do-nothing $-3,536)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$367.509d6 Nov 2026$0.945/5$470$1,567$1,56794%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$831-$9,76638.3%0.9mo$-13,192 (vs do-nothing $-9,921)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$372.5016d13 Nov 2026$1.075/5$535$1,003$1,00393%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$488-$7,20128.2%0.6mo$-10,627 (vs do-nothing $-7,356)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3659d6 Nov 2026$1.095/5$545$1,817$1,81793%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$931-$10,94142.9%1.0mo$-14,367 (vs do-nothing $-11,096)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37523d20 Nov 2026$1.485/5$740$965$96592%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$499-$5,74622.5%0.5mo$-9,172 (vs do-nothing $-5,901)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37016d13 Nov 2026$1.235/5$615$1,153$1,15392%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$547-$8,37132.8%0.7mo$-11,797 (vs do-nothing $-8,526)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.509d6 Nov 2026$1.275/5$635$2,117$2,11792%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$1,048-$12,10147.5%1.1mo$-15,527 (vs do-nothing $-12,256)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$367.5016d13 Nov 2026$1.405/5$700$1,312$1,31291%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$600-$9,53637.4%0.8mo$-12,962 (vs do-nothing $-9,691)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37023d20 Nov 2026$1.825/5$910$1,187$1,18791%hist 95%19%hist 13%92%+$588-$8,07631.7%0.7mo$-11,502 (vs do-nothing $-8,231)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3609d6 Nov 2026$1.495/5$745$2,483$2,48390%hist 95%19%hist 13%91%+$1,193-$13,24151.9%1.2mo$-16,667 (vs do-nothing $-13,396)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36516d13 Nov 2026$1.665/5$830$1,556$1,55690%hist 95%20%hist 13%91%+$720-$10,65641.8%0.9mo$-14,082 (vs do-nothing $-10,811)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.5016d13 Nov 2026$1.855/5$925$1,734$1,73489%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$753-$11,81146.3%1.0mo$-15,237 (vs do-nothing $-11,966)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$357.509d6 Nov 2026$1.735/5$865$2,883$2,88389%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$1,326-$14,37156.4%1.3mo$-17,797 (vs do-nothing $-14,526)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36523d20 Nov 2026$2.275/5$1,135$1,480$1,48089%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$668-$10,35140.6%0.9mo$-13,777 (vs do-nothing $-10,506)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36016d13 Nov 2026$2.195/5$1,095$2,053$2,05388%hist 86%24%hist 23%89%+$897-$12,89150.6%1.1mo$-16,317 (vs do-nothing $-13,046)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3559d6 Nov 2026$2.025/5$1,010$3,367$3,36788%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$1,486-$15,47660.7%1.3mo$-18,902 (vs do-nothing $-15,631)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.5023d20 Nov 2026$2.535/5$1,265$1,650$1,65088%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$717-$11,47145.0%1.0mo$-14,897 (vs do-nothing $-11,626)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$357.5016d13 Nov 2026$2.395/5$1,195$2,241$2,24187%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$887-$14,04155.1%1.2mo$-17,467 (vs do-nothing $-14,196)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36023d20 Nov 2026$2.855/5$1,425$1,859$1,85986%hist 86%28%hist 23%88%+$788-$12,56149.3%1.1mo$-15,987 (vs do-nothing $-12,716)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$352.509d6 Nov 2026$2.365/5$1,180$3,933$3,93386%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$1,666-$16,55664.9%1.4mo$-19,982 (vs do-nothing $-16,711)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35516d13 Nov 2026$2.735/5$1,365$2,559$2,55985%hist 86%30%hist 30%87%+$977-$15,12159.3%1.3mo$-18,547 (vs do-nothing $-15,276)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$357.5023d20 Nov 2026$3.155/5$1,575$2,054$2,05485%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$825-$13,66153.6%1.2mo$-17,087 (vs do-nothing $-13,816)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3509d6 Nov 2026$2.725/5$1,360$4,533$4,53384%hist 86%32%hist 30%86%+$1,805-$17,62669.1%1.5mo$-21,052 (vs do-nothing $-17,781)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$352.5016d13 Nov 2026$3.055/5$1,525$2,859$2,85984%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$1,013-$16,21163.6%1.4mo$-19,637 (vs do-nothing $-16,366)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35523d20 Nov 2026$3.555/5$1,775$2,315$2,31584%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$903-$14,71157.7%1.3mo$-18,137 (vs do-nothing $-14,866)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.509d6 Nov 2026$3.105/5$1,550$5,167$5,16782%hist 86%37%hist 30%85%+$1,893-$18,68673.3%1.6mo$-22,112 (vs do-nothing $-18,841)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$352.5023d20 Nov 2026$3.955/5$1,975$2,576$2,57682%hist 86%37%hist 30%85%+$955-$15,76161.8%1.4mo$-19,187 (vs do-nothing $-15,916)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35016d13 Nov 2026$3.605/5$1,800$3,375$3,37582%hist 86%38%hist 30%84%+$1,225-$17,18667.4%1.5mo$-20,612 (vs do-nothing $-17,341)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35023d20 Nov 2026$4.455/5$2,225$2,902$2,90280%hist 86%41%hist 40%83%+$1,043-$16,76165.7%1.5mo$-20,187 (vs do-nothing $-16,916)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.5016d13 Nov 2026$3.955/5$1,975$3,703$3,70380%hist 83%42%hist 40%83%+$1,204-$18,26171.6%1.6mo$-21,687 (vs do-nothing $-18,416)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.5023d20 Nov 2026$5.005/5$2,500$3,261$3,26178%hist 83%45%hist 40%82%+$1,130-$17,73669.6%1.5mo$-21,162 (vs do-nothing $-17,891)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34516d13 Nov 2026$4.505/5$2,250$4,219$4,21978%hist 83%46%hist 40%82%+$1,323-$19,23675.4%1.7mo$-22,662 (vs do-nothing $-19,391)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34523d20 Nov 2026$5.555/5$2,775$3,620$3,62076%hist 83%49%hist 40%81%+$1,181-$18,71173.4%1.6mo$-22,137 (vs do-nothing $-18,866)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.5016d13 Nov 2026$5.105/5$2,550$4,781$4,78175%hist 83%50%hist 44%80%+$1,434-$20,18679.2%1.8mo$-23,612 (vs do-nothing $-20,341)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.5023d20 Nov 2026$6.105/5$3,050$3,978$3,97874%hist 83%54%hist 44%79%+$1,192-$19,68677.2%1.7mo$-23,112 (vs do-nothing $-19,841)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34016d13 Nov 2026$5.805/5$2,900$5,438$5,43873%hist 83%55%hist 44%79%+$1,580-$21,08682.7%1.8mo$-24,512 (vs do-nothing $-21,241)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34023d20 Nov 2026$6.905/5$3,450$4,500$4,50072%hist 83%58%hist 44%78%+$1,325-$20,53680.5%1.8mo$-23,962 (vs do-nothing $-20,691)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$337.5023d20 Nov 2026$7.655/5$3,825$4,989$4,98969%hist 66%63%hist 54%77%+$1,380-$21,41184.0%1.9mo$-24,837 (vs do-nothing $-21,566)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33523d20 Nov 2026$8.405/5$4,200$5,478$5,47867%hist 66%69%hist 54%75%+$1,387-$22,28687.4%1.9mo$-25,712 (vs do-nothing $-22,441)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-29 03:13