FORTRESS FIGHT: HOOD @ $113.16

BE SS: $114.95 | CC-SS: $119.67 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

HOOD @ $113.16 UNDERWATER $1.79 (1.6% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $114.95 | CC-SS: $119.67 (banked floor $119.16) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $73.339/sh)

SP: $95 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $26.184/sh)

HP: $80 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $2.794/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$64,950	(ND $49.95 + SW $15) x 1000
Normal income ref	$10,980/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$679/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-6,300	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,490/mo

HEDGE COVER
$679/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$10,980/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.5 mo to earn back $49,950

ML VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $64,950

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $119.67 (probe: $120C 15d) still earns $5,900/mo (54% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-21

$523

Hole (after banked)

$5,777

was $6,300 · 8% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$119.67 → $119.16

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 71 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 36 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $127.86 (+13%) · daily UBB $126.16 · 1-wk expected move ±$9 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $119.67 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $121 23 Oct 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $121)

71%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$3,600

Income / mo

$4,909

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $122 9 Oct 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $122)

81%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$1,290

Income / mo

$4,838

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.70/sh now → $3.33 mid-life (likely $3.26–$5.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 818 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $124 (overshoots $2.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$122	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.54/sh	+$1,536 cycle +$2,826 [+$1,187…+$1,897] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$127	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.71/sh	+$706 cycle +$1,996 [+$32…+$934] · 76% credit	74% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$125	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.27/sh	+$267 cycle +$1,557 [-$262…+$443] · 52% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$129	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.07/sh	+$67 cycle +$1,357 [-$724…+$258] · 35% credit	77% surv 70%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$134	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.18/sh	-$1,184 cycle +$106 [-$2,308…-$1,085] · 4% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $1,290 debit $1,184 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$106 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,570/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $135 23 Oct 2026 (22d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $135)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,100

Income / mo

$1,500

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (29 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.004 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$6,539 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $316

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$120	8d	9 Oct 2026	$1.71	9/10	$5,771	$6,042	76%	81%	+$2,178	-$0	0.0%	$1,786 (vs do-nothing +$1,470)
$119	8d	9 Oct 2026	$1.93	8/10	$5,790	$7,011	73%	79%	+$1,971	-$0	0.0%	$1,260 (vs do-nothing +$944)
$120	15d	16 Oct 2026	$2.95	10/10	$5,900	$5,221	71%	78%	+$1,874	-$0	0.0%	$3,189 (vs do-nothing +$2,873)
$118	8d	9 Oct 2026	$2.26	7/10	$5,932	$8,103	70%	77%	+$1,951	-$0	0.0%	$673 (vs do-nothing +$357)
$119	15d	16 Oct 2026	$3.20	9/10	$5,760	$6,031	69%	76%	+$1,662	-$0	0.0%	$2,521 (vs do-nothing +$2,205)
$119	22d	23 Oct 2026	$4.20	10/10	$5,727	$5,048	67%	75%	+$1,567	-$0	0.0%	$3,766 (vs do-nothing +$3,450)
$117	8d	9 Oct 2026	$2.58	6/10	$5,805	$8,926	67%	75%	+$1,757	-$56	0.1%	$214 (vs do-nothing $-102)
$118	15d	16 Oct 2026	$3.55	8/10	$5,680	$6,901	66%	75%	+$1,569	-$0	0.0%	$1,756 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)
$118	22d	23 Oct 2026	$4.55	9/10	$5,584	$5,855	64%	74%	+$1,450	-$0	0.0%	$2,836 (vs do-nothing +$2,520)
$117	15d	16 Oct 2026	$3.90	8/10	$6,240	$7,461	63%	74%	+$1,611	-$0	0.0%	$1,236 (vs do-nothing +$920)
$116	8d	9 Oct 2026	$2.96	5/10	$5,550	$9,621	63%	74%	+$1,568	-$357	0.7%	$-79 (vs do-nothing $-395)
$117	22d	23 Oct 2026	$4.95	9/10	$6,075	$6,346	62%	73%	+$1,518	-$0	0.0%	$2,296 (vs do-nothing +$1,980)
$116	15d	16 Oct 2026	$4.30	7/10	$6,020	$8,191	61%	72%	+$1,472	-$0	0.0%	$701 (vs do-nothing +$385)

Show 16 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$116	22d	23 Oct 2026	$5.35	8/10	$5,836	$7,057	60%	72%	+$1,378	-$0	0.0%	$1,596 (vs do-nothing +$1,280)
$115	8d	9 Oct 2026	$3.35	5/10	$6,281	$10,352	59%	72%	+$1,606	-$662	1.3%	$-384 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$115	15d	16 Oct 2026	$4.75	6/10	$5,700	$8,821	58%	71%	+$1,333	-$0	0.0%	$316 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$115	22d	23 Oct 2026	$5.80	7/10	$5,536	$7,707	57%	71%	+$1,252	-$0	0.0%	$1,051 (vs do-nothing +$735)
$114	8d	9 Oct 2026	$3.80	4/10	$5,700	$10,721	55%	70%	+$1,334	-$749	1.5%	$-464 (vs do-nothing $-780)
$114	22d	23 Oct 2026	$6.20	7/10	$5,918	$8,089	55%	70%	+$1,221	-$0	0.0%	$631 (vs do-nothing +$315)
$114	15d	16 Oct 2026	$5.15	6/10	$6,180	$9,301	55%	69%	+$1,303	-$314	0.6%	$-44 (vs do-nothing $-360)
$113	22d	23 Oct 2026	$6.70	7/10	$6,395	$8,566	52%	68%	+$1,257	-$0	0.0%	$281 (vs do-nothing $-35)
$113	15d	16 Oct 2026	$5.65	5/10	$5,650	$9,721	52%	68%	+$1,124	-$512	1.0%	$-234 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$113	8d	9 Oct 2026	$4.30	4/10	$6,450	$11,471	51%	68%	+$1,386	-$949	1.9%	$-664 (vs do-nothing $-980)
$112	22d	23 Oct 2026	$7.20	6/10	$5,891	$9,012	50%	67%	+$1,083	-$284	0.6%	$-14 (vs do-nothing $-330)
$112	15d	16 Oct 2026	$6.15	5/10	$6,150	$10,221	49%	67%	+$1,124	-$762	1.5%	$-484 (vs do-nothing $-800)
$111	22d	23 Oct 2026	$7.75	6/10	$6,341	$9,462	47%	66%	+$1,103	-$554	1.1%	$-284 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$112	8d	9 Oct 2026	$4.80	4/10	$7,200	$12,221	47%	66%	+$1,363	-$1,149	2.3%	$-864 (vs do-nothing $-1,180)
$111	15d	16 Oct 2026	$6.75	5/10	$6,750	$10,821	46%	66%	+$1,187	-$962	1.9%	$-684 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)
$111	8d	9 Oct 2026	$5.35	3/10	$6,019	$11,990	43%	65%	+$1,007	-$997	2.0%	$-704 (vs do-nothing $-1,020)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-01 21:47