FORTRESS FIGHT: HOOD @ $95.81

BE SS: $114.95 | CC-SS: $119.71 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

HOOD @ $95.81 UNDERWATER $19.14 (16.7% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

HOOD reports 2026-10-27 (Tue), TODAY. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $114.95 | CC-SS: $119.71 (banked floor $116.36) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $73.339/sh)

SP: $95 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $26.184/sh)

HP: $80 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $2.794/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$64,950	(ND $49.95 + SW $15) x 1000
Normal income ref	$10,765/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$1,500/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-23,350	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,382/mo

HEDGE COVER
$1,500/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$10,765/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.6 mo to earn back $49,950

ML VELOCITY
6.0 mo to earn back $64,950

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $119.71 (probe: $120C 17d) brings only $1,200/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-21

$3,486

Hole (after banked)

$19,864

was $23,350 · 15% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$119.71 → $116.36

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Full leg history (18) and event log · CLOSED 15 · UNKNOWN 2 · EXPIRED 1 · updated 2026-10-28 03:11

Status	Leg	Credit/sh	Credit	Opened	Closed	Close/sh	Banked	Account	Source
CLOSED	5x $105C 23 Oct 2026	$0.57	$285	2026-10-21	2026-10-22	$0.11	$230	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	1x $105C 23 Oct 2026	$0.57	$57	2026-10-21	2026-10-22	$0.11	$46	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	4x $105C 23 Oct 2026	$0.57	$228	2026-10-21	2026-10-22	$0.11	$184	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	10x $115C 16 Oct 2026	$0.81	$810	2026-10-13	2026-10-15	$0.07	$740	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	2x $120C 16 Oct 2026	$0.58	$116	2026-10-08	2026-10-13	$0.27	$62	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	1x $120C 16 Oct 2026	$0.58	$58	2026-10-08	2026-10-13	$0.27	$31	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	1x $120C 16 Oct 2026	$0.58	$58	2026-10-08	2026-10-13	$0.27	$31	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	6x $120C 16 Oct 2026	$0.58	$348	2026-10-08	2026-10-13	$0.27	$186	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	10x $120C 9 Oct 2026	$0.79	$790	2026-10-06	2026-10-08	$0.08	$710	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	5x $125C 9 Oct 2026	$1.01	$507	2026-10-05	2026-10-06	$0.27	$372	U6241782	snapshot
CLOSED	1x $125C 9 Oct 2026	$1.01	$101	2026-10-05	2026-10-06	$0.27	$74	U6241782	snapshot
CLOSED	1x $125C 9 Oct 2026	$1.01	$101	2026-10-05	2026-10-06	$0.27	$74	U6241782	snapshot
CLOSED	1x $125C 9 Oct 2026	$1.01	$101	2026-10-05	2026-10-06	$0.27	$74	U6241782	snapshot
CLOSED	1x $125C 9 Oct 2026	$1.01	$101	2026-10-05	2026-10-06	$0.27	$74	U6241782	snapshot
CLOSED	1x $125C 9 Oct 2026	$1.01	$101	2026-10-05	2026-10-06	$0.27	$74	U6241782	snapshot
EXPIRED	10x $126C 25 Sep 2026	$0.52	$523	2026-09-25	2026-09-28	$0.00	$523	U6241782	snapshot
UNKNOWN	10x $145C 2 Oct 2026	$0.81	$812	2026-09-22	2026-09-25	$0.81	$0	U6241782	snapshot
UNKNOWN	10x $130C 25 Sep 2026	$0.94	$943	2026-09-21	2026-09-22	$0.94	$0	U6241782	seed

Event log

2026-10-22 CLOSED 5x $105C 20261023: banked $230

2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 4x $105C: banked $184 (5 remain)

2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $105C: banked $46 (9 remain)

2026-10-21 SOLD 10x $105C 20261023 @ $0.57 (new leg)

2026-10-15 CLOSED 10x $115C 20261016: banked $740

2026-10-13 CLOSED 2x $120C 20261016: banked $62

2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 6x $120C: banked $186 (2 remain)

2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $120C: banked $31 (8 remain)

2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $120C: banked $31 (9 remain)

2026-10-13 SOLD 8x $115C 20261016 @ $0.81 (extends leg to 10)

2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $115C 20261016 @ $0.81 (extends leg to 2)

2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $115C 20261016 @ $0.81 (new leg)

2026-10-08 SOLD 10x $120C 20261016 @ $0.58 (new leg)

2026-10-08 CLOSED 10x $120C 20261009: banked $710

2026-10-06 CLOSED 5x $125C 20261009: banked $372

2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $125C: banked $74 (5 remain)

2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $125C: banked $74 (6 remain)

2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $125C: banked $74 (7 remain)

2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $125C: banked $74 (8 remain)

2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $125C: banked $74 (9 remain)

2026-10-06 SOLD 5x $120C 20261009 @ $0.79 (extends leg to 10)

2026-10-06 SOLD 2x $120C 20261009 @ $0.79 (extends leg to 5)

2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $120C 20261009 @ $0.79 (extends leg to 3)

2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $120C 20261009 @ $0.79 (extends leg to 2)

2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $120C 20261009 @ $0.79 (new leg)

2026-10-05 TRACKING 10x $125C 20261009 @ $1.01 (snapshot)

2026-09-28 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 10x $126C: banked $523

2026-09-25 TRACKING 10x $126C 20260925 @ $0.52 (snapshot)

2026-09-25 ? 10x $145C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-22 TRACKING 10x $145C 20261002 @ $0.81 (snapshot)

2026-09-22 ? 10x $130C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-21 TRACKING 10x $130C 20260925 @ $0.94 (seed)

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 27 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 22 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $124.65 (+30%) · daily UBB $117.35 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 10 contracts at $111 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 91%, breach 9%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,382/mo); it brings $5,700/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $106/3d for $11,900/mo, but breach risk rises to 17% (+8pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $120/3d (97% survival, $1,600/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $8,144 (16% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $115, recoverable in 0.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-23,355 and cuts bleed by $1,500/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 (3d) · sell 10 × $111, 91% survival, $5,700/mo (E[net] $3,257/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡	30 Oct 2026 · 3d	10 × $111	91%	$5,700	$3,257
NEXT FRIDAY ⚡	6 Nov 2026 · 10d	10 × $107	80%	$5,400	$665

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $570 with probability 90%; on the 10% touch you roll, paying $3,598 to close and taking $1,780 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,818) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 · 3d · E[net] $3,257/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $111 (50% normal), 91% survival, breach 9%, $5,700/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $114 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 94% (breach 9% → 6%) for $2,100/mo less (37% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

HOOD spot $95.81 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

10 × $120

30 Oct

25.2%

97%hist 95%

6%hist 4%

-2pp

$160

$1,600

-$4,100

Sell 10 × $120 25.2% OTM over spot $95.81 30 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.17 mid)

= $160 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $120)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $120.17)

97%

EV / mo

+$1,010

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-2pp

74% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-227/mo

median; plan ~$-154/mo after 68% keep · $-100 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.8], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,730

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$128 @ 77% POP

70% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.50/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $2.95–$6.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 83 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $124 (overshoots $3.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$120	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.65/sh	+$1,650 cycle +$1,810 [+$1,945…+$2,726] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	+$981 SAFE cap gain +$24,331
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$123	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.24/sh	+$244 cycle +$404 [+$25…+$1,203] · 76% credit	72% surv 61%	+$2,545 SAFE cap gain +$25,895
Max even-money escape in the band	~$128	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$47 cycle +$207 [-$644…+$1,162] · 69% credit	77% surv 70%	+$7,002 SAFE cap gain +$30,352

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,600/mo
vs 50% target ($5,382/mo)	-70%
vs normal income ($10,765/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$100/mo

Downside budget

✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $119.71: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($49,950)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($64,950)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-23,355

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $120.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $118.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $119-120.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $120.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$120.00 (3.4σ)	$160	$-669	+$22,681	+$4,440
+2.5%	$123.00 (3.9σ)	$-2,840	$-876	+$22,474	+$4,440
+5%	$126.00 (4.3σ)	$-5,840	$-1,083	+$22,267	+$4,440

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $119.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,350

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,254

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $120): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,096 (+$22,254 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,089 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,994, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

10 × $114

30 Oct

19.0%

94%hist 95%

13%hist 13%

+1pp

$360

$3,600

-$2,100

$5,354

Sell 10 × $114 19.0% OTM over spot $95.81 30 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.36 mid)

= $360 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $114.36)

94%

EV / mo

+$1,909

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

74% whole by 9mo vs 73% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,111/mo

median; plan ~$756/mo after 68% keep · $942 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.2-1.9], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,335

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$123 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $5.22/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $3.21–$6.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 198 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $118 (overshoots $3.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.74/sh	+$1,741 cycle +$2,101 [+$1,889…+$2,630] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$4,314 NOT cap gain +$19,036
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$117	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.34/sh	+$341 cycle +$701 [-$94…+$982] · 72% credit	72% surv 62%	-$2,744 NOT cap gain +$20,606
Max even-money escape in the band	~$122	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$185 cycle +$545 [-$596…+$843] · 63% credit	77% surv 70%	+$1,755 SAFE cap gain +$25,105
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$123	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.07/sh	-$71 cycle +$289 [-$956…+$548] · 53% credit	78% surv 72%	+$2,429 SAFE cap gain +$25,779
budget: banked $360 debit $71 (20% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$289 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,942/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,600/mo
vs 50% target ($5,382/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($10,765/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,100/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $114 is $6 below CC-SS $119.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,354
… as % of IC ($49,950)	10.7%
… as % of ML ($64,950)	8.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-23,355

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $114.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $112.86	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $113-114.36	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $114.36	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$114.00 (2.6σ)	$360	$-6,055	+$17,295	-$360
+2.5%	$116.85 (3.0σ)	$-2,490	$-6,252	+$17,098	-$1,360
+5%	$119.70 (3.4σ)	$-5,340	$-6,448	+$16,902	-$1,360

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $119.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,350

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,254

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $114): -$5,354

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,449 (+$16,901 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,089 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,360, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

10 × $111

30 Oct

15.9%

91%hist 95%

19%hist 13%

+3pp

$570

$5,700

—

$8,144

Sell 10 × $111 15.9% OTM over spot $95.81 30 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.57 mid)

= $570 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $111)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $111.58)

92%

EV / mo

+$2,685

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,987/mo

median; plan ~$1,351/mo after 68% keep · $2,322 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.5], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,028

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$122 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $5.09/sh now → $3.60 mid-life (likely $3.48–$6.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $111 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $115 (overshoots $4.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$111	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.78/sh	+$1,780 cycle +$2,350 [+$1,601…+$2,467] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$6,858 NOT cap gain +$16,492
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$118	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.55/sh	+$550 cycle +$1,120 [-$486…+$1,042] · 60% credit	76% surv 68%	-$1,394 NOT cap gain +$21,956
Max even-money escape in the band	~$119	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.24/sh	+$244 cycle +$814 [-$895…+$707] · 50% credit	77% surv 70%	-$769 NOT cap gain +$22,581
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$115	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.03/sh	+$30 cycle +$600 [-$726…+$448] · 48% credit	74% surv 65%	-$4,707 NOT cap gain +$18,643
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$122	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.54/sh	-$543 cycle +$27 [-$1,972…-$121] · 19% credit	80% surv 76%	+$1,237 SAFE cap gain +$24,587
budget: banked $570 debit $543 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$27 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,166/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,700/mo
vs 50% target ($5,382/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($10,765/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,200/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $111 is $9 below CC-SS $119.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,144
… as % of IC ($49,950)	16.3%
… as % of ML ($64,950)	12.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-23,355

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $111.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $111)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $109.89	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $110-111.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $111.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$111.00 (2.2σ)	$570	$-8,638	+$14,712	-$150
+2.5%	$113.77 (2.6σ)	$-2,205	$-8,830	+$14,520	-$2,925
+5%	$116.55 (3.0σ)	$-4,980	$-9,021	+$14,329	-$4,150

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $119.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,350

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,254

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $111): -$8,144

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,239 (+$14,111 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,089 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,150, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $111

30 Oct

15.9%

91%hist 95%

19%hist 13%

+3pp

$570

$5,700

+$0

$8,144

Sell 10 × $111 15.9% OTM over spot $95.81 30 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.57 mid)

= $570 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $111)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $111.58)

92%

EV / mo

+$2,685

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,987/mo

median; plan ~$1,351/mo after 68% keep · $2,322 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.5], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,028

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$122 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$111	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.78/sh	+$1,780 cycle +$2,350 [+$1,601…+$2,467] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$6,858 NOT cap gain +$16,492
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$118	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.55/sh	+$550 cycle +$1,120 [-$486…+$1,042] · 60% credit	76% surv 68%	-$1,394 NOT cap gain +$21,956
Max even-money escape in the band	~$119	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.24/sh	+$244 cycle +$814 [-$895…+$707] · 50% credit	77% surv 70%	-$769 NOT cap gain +$22,581
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$115	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.03/sh	+$30 cycle +$600 [-$726…+$448] · 48% credit	74% surv 65%	-$4,707 NOT cap gain +$18,643
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$122	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.54/sh	-$543 cycle +$27 [-$1,972…-$121] · 19% credit	80% surv 76%	+$1,237 SAFE cap gain +$24,587
budget: banked $570 debit $543 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$27 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,166/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,700/mo
vs 50% target ($5,382/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($10,765/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,200/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $111 is $9 below CC-SS $119.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,144
… as % of IC ($49,950)	16.3%
… as % of ML ($64,950)	12.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-23,355

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $109.89	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $110-111.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $111.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$111.00 (2.2σ)	$570	$-8,638	+$14,712	-$150
+2.5%	$113.77 (2.6σ)	$-2,205	$-8,830	+$14,520	-$2,925
+5%	$116.55 (3.0σ)	$-4,980	$-9,021	+$14,329	-$4,150

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $119.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,350

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,254

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $111): -$8,144

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,239 (+$14,111 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,089 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,150, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $106

30 Oct

10.6%

83%hist 86%

36%hist 30%

+6pp

$1,190

$11,900

+$6,200

$12,524

Sell 10 × $106 10.6% OTM over spot $95.81 30 Oct 2026 (3d, $1.19 mid)

= $1,190 credit for the 3d cycle → $11,900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $106)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $107.19)

85%

EV / mo

+$4,246

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

78% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,890/mo

median; plan ~$3,325/mo after 68% keep · $5,782 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,246

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$120 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $4.86/sh now → $3.44 mid-life (likely $3.73–$6.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 675 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $110 (overshoots $4.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$106	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.83/sh	+$1,835 cycle +$3,025 [+$1,385…+$2,282] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	-$10,838 NOT cap gain +$12,512
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$112	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.99/sh	+$985 cycle +$2,175 [-$174…+$1,277] · 69% credit	75% surv 67%	-$5,925 NOT cap gain +$17,425
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$110	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$93 cycle +$1,283 [-$868…+$325] · 37% credit	74% surv 65%	-$8,680 NOT cap gain +$14,670
Max even-money escape in the band	~$115	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$75 cycle +$1,265 [-$1,400…+$261] · 33% credit	78% surv 72%	-$4,042 NOT cap gain +$19,308
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$120	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$1.11/sh	-$1,108 cycle +$82 [-$3,115…-$1,072] · 4% credit	84% surv 81%	-$570 NOT cap gain +$22,780
budget: banked $1,190 debit $1,108 (93% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$82 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,175/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,900/mo
vs 50% target ($5,382/mo)	+121%
vs normal income ($10,765/mo)	111% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,400/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $106 is $14 below CC-SS $119.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,524
… as % of IC ($49,950)	25.1%
… as % of ML ($64,950)	19.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-23,355

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.19 collected) or spot ≥ $107.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $104.94	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $105-107.19	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $107.19	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$106.00 (1.5σ)	$1,190	$-12,673	+$10,677	+$470
+2.5%	$108.65 (1.8σ)	$-1,460	$-12,856	+$10,494	-$2,180
+5%	$111.30 (2.2σ)	$-4,110	$-13,039	+$10,311	-$4,830
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.95 (2.7σ)	$-7,760	$-13,291	+$10,059	-$8,480

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $119.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,350

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,254

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $106): -$12,524

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,619 (+$9,731 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,089 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,530, the opportunity cost of earning $11,900/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on HOOD are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 10d · E[net] $665/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $107 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $5,400/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $110 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 20% → 15%) for $1,530/mo less (28% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

HOOD spot $95.81 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

10 × $118

6 Nov

10d

23.2%

93%hist 95%

13%hist 13%

-3pp

$510

$1,530

-$3,870

$1,204

Sell 10 × $118 23.2% OTM over spot $95.81 6 Nov 2026 (10d, $0.52 mid)

= $510 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,530/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $118)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $118.52)

94%

EV / mo

+$804

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-3pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-379/mo

median; plan ~$-258/mo after 68% keep · $-637 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,273

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$123 @ 74% POP

65% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.76/sh now → $4.78 mid-life (likely $4.15–$7.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 311 simulated challenges: the $118 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $122 (overshoots $3.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$118	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.84/sh	+$839 cycle +$1,349 [+$745…+$1,876] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%	-$1,342 NOT cap gain +$22,008
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$119	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.29/sh	+$285 cycle +$795 [+$39…+$1,241] · 78% credit	69% surv 56%	-$788 NOT cap gain +$22,562
Max even-money escape in the band	~$121	20 Nov 2026	19d left	+$0.36/sh	+$361 cycle +$871 [-$53…+$1,447] · 71% credit	71% surv 60%	+$1,149 SAFE cap gain +$24,499
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$123	20 Nov 2026	19d left	-$0.40/sh	-$396 cycle +$114 [-$1,030…+$539] · 42% credit	74% surv 65%	+$2,255 SAFE cap gain +$25,605
budget: banked $510 debit $396 (78% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$114 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,928/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,530/mo
vs 50% target ($5,382/mo)	-72%
vs normal income ($10,765/mo)	14% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$30/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $118 is $2 below CC-SS $119.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,204
… as % of IC ($49,950)	2.4%
… as % of ML ($64,950)	1.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-23,355

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $118.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $118)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $116.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $117-118.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $118.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$118.00 (1.7σ)	$510	$-2,181	+$21,169	+$2,790
+2.5%	$120.95 (2.0σ)	$-2,440	$-2,385	+$20,965	+$2,790
+5%	$123.90 (2.2σ)	$-5,390	$-2,588	+$20,762	+$2,790

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $119.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,350

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,254

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $118): -$1,204

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,299 (+$21,051 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,089 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,790, the opportunity cost of earning $1,530/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $114

6 Nov

10d

19.0%

90%hist 95%

21%hist 23%

-1pp

$810

$2,430

-$2,970

$4,904

Sell 10 × $114 19.0% OTM over spot $95.81 6 Nov 2026 (10d, $0.82 mid)

= $810 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,430/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $114.82)

91%

EV / mo

+$1,112

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

72% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$242/mo

median; plan ~$165/mo after 68% keep · $310 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,811

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$120 @ 75% POP

67% survival

Buyback gross: $6.53/sh now → $4.62 mid-life (likely $4.10–$6.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 428 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $117 (overshoots $3.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.95/sh	+$948 cycle +$1,758 [+$737…+$1,810] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$4,657 NOT cap gain +$18,693
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$115	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.40/sh	+$396 cycle +$1,206 [+$99…+$1,167] · 80% credit	69% surv 56%	-$4,102 NOT cap gain +$19,248
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$117	20 Nov 2026	19d left	+$0.48/sh	+$478 cycle +$1,288 [-$4…+$1,326] · 75% credit	71% surv 60%	-$2,157 NOT cap gain +$21,193
Max even-money escape in the band	~$118	20 Nov 2026	19d left	+$0.08/sh	+$77 cycle +$887 [-$480…+$872] · 51% credit	73% surv 63%	-$1,627 NOT cap gain +$21,723
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$120	20 Nov 2026	19d left	-$0.62/sh	-$624 cycle +$186 [-$1,333…+$71] · 27% credit	75% surv 67%	-$466 NOT cap gain +$22,884
budget: banked $810 debit $624 (77% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$186 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,311/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,430/mo
vs 50% target ($5,382/mo)	-55%
vs normal income ($10,765/mo)	23% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$930/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $114 is $6 below CC-SS $119.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,904
… as % of IC ($49,950)	9.8%
… as % of ML ($64,950)	7.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-23,360

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $114.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $112.86	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $113-114.82	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $114.82	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$114.00 (1.4σ)	$810	$-5,605	+$17,745	+$90
+2.5%	$116.85 (1.6σ)	$-2,040	$-5,802	+$17,548	-$910
+5%	$119.70 (1.9σ)	$-4,890	$-5,998	+$17,352	-$910

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $119.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,350

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,254

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $114): -$4,904

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,999 (+$17,351 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,089 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-910, the opportunity cost of earning $2,430/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

10 × $110

6 Nov

10d

14.8%

85%hist 86%

31%hist 30%

+1pp

$1,290

$3,870

-$1,530

$8,424

Sell 10 × $110 14.8% OTM over spot $95.81 6 Nov 2026 (10d, $1.30 mid)

= $1,290 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,870/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $110)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $111.30)

87%

EV / mo

+$1,510

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$736/mo

median; plan ~$501/mo after 68% keep · $1,813 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

23%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,169

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$118 @ 78% POP

71% survival

Buyback gross: $6.30/sh now → $4.46 mid-life (likely $4.25–$6.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 679 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $113 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$110	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$1.05/sh	+$1,048 cycle +$2,338 [+$676…+$1,660] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$7,801 NOT cap gain +$15,549
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$113	20 Nov 2026	19d left	+$0.58/sh	+$584 cycle +$1,874 [-$59…+$1,168] · 72% credit	71% surv 61%	-$5,295 NOT cap gain +$18,055
Max even-money escape in the band	~$114	20 Nov 2026	19d left	+$0.18/sh	+$184 cycle +$1,474 [-$537…+$718] · 49% credit	73% surv 63%	-$4,764 NOT cap gain +$18,586
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$112	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.05/sh	+$47 cycle +$1,337 [-$470…+$513] · 46% credit	70% surv 59%	-$6,763 NOT cap gain +$16,587
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$118	20 Nov 2026	19d left	-$1.15/sh	-$1,151 cycle +$139 [-$2,172…-$796] · 10% credit	78% surv 71%	-$2,375 NOT cap gain +$20,975
budget: banked $1,290 debit $1,151 (89% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$139 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,223/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,870/mo
vs 50% target ($5,382/mo)	-28%
vs normal income ($10,765/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,370/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $110 is $10 below CC-SS $119.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,424
… as % of IC ($49,950)	16.9%
… as % of ML ($64,950)	13.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-23,360

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.29 collected) or spot ≥ $111.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $108.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $109-111.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $111.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$110.00 (1.1σ)	$1,290	$-8,849	+$14,501	+$570
+2.5%	$112.75 (1.3σ)	$-1,460	$-9,039	+$14,311	-$2,180
+5%	$115.50 (1.5σ)	$-4,210	$-9,229	+$14,121	-$4,430

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $119.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,350

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,254

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $110): -$8,424

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,519 (+$13,831 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,089 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,430, the opportunity cost of earning $3,870/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

10 × $107

6 Nov

10d

11.7%

80%hist 86%

41%hist 40%

+1pp

$1,800

$5,400

—

$10,914

Sell 10 × $107 11.7% OTM over spot $95.81 6 Nov 2026 (10d, $1.81 mid)

= $1,800 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,400/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $107)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $108.81)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,811

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

72% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,588/mo

median; plan ~$1,080/mo after 68% keep · $3,204 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,537

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$117 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $6.13/sh now → $4.34 mid-life (likely $4.33–$6.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 943 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $110 (overshoots $2.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$107	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$1.12/sh	+$1,116 cycle +$2,916 [+$699…+$1,581] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$10,016 NOT cap gain +$13,334
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$110	20 Nov 2026	19d left	+$0.66/sh	+$655 cycle +$2,455 [-$104…+$1,049] · 67% credit	72% surv 61%	-$7,507 NOT cap gain +$15,843
Max even-money escape in the band	~$111	20 Nov 2026	19d left	+$0.26/sh	+$257 cycle +$2,057 [-$580…+$585] · 44% credit	73% surv 63%	-$6,974 NOT cap gain +$16,376
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$109	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.12/sh	+$118 cycle +$1,918 [-$489…+$416] · 43% credit	70% surv 59%	-$8,976 NOT cap gain +$14,374
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$117	20 Nov 2026	19d left	-$1.60/sh	-$1,603 cycle +$197 [-$2,858…-$1,415] · 5% credit	80% surv 75%	-$3,249 NOT cap gain +$20,101
budget: banked $1,800 debit $1,603 (89% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$197 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,317/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,400/mo
vs 50% target ($5,382/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($10,765/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,900/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $107 is $13 below CC-SS $119.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,914
… as % of IC ($49,950)	21.8%
… as % of ML ($64,950)	16.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-23,360

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $108.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $105.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $106-108.81	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $108.81	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$107.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,800	$-11,132	+$12,218	+$1,080
+2.5%	$109.67 (1.1σ)	$-875	$-11,317	+$12,033	-$1,595
+5%	$112.35 (1.3σ)	$-3,550	$-11,501	+$11,849	-$4,270
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.95 (1.5σ)	$-6,150	$-11,681	+$11,669	-$6,870

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $119.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,350

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,254

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $107): -$10,914

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,009 (+$11,341 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,089 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,920, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $100

6 Nov

10d

4.4%

65%hist 66%

75%hist 68%

+6pp

$3,700

$11,100

+$5,700

$16,014

Sell 10 × $100 4.4% OTM over spot $95.81 6 Nov 2026 (10d, $3.73 mid)

= $3,700 credit for the 10d cycle → $11,100/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $100)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $103.72)

74%

EV / mo

+$2,367

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

79% whole by 9mo vs 73% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,465/mo

median; plan ~$2,356/mo after 68% keep · $5,792 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

61%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$354

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$120 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $5.73/sh now → $4.05 mid-life (likely $5.25–$7.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,841 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $103 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$1.25/sh	+$1,254 cycle +$4,954 [+$645…+$1,062] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$14,495 NOT cap gain +$8,855
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$102	20 Nov 2026	19d left	+$1.19/sh	+$1,195 cycle +$4,895 [+$257…+$839] · 91% credit	71% surv 59%	-$12,516 NOT cap gain +$10,834
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$102	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.26/sh	+$261 cycle +$3,961 [-$522…-$63] · 23% credit	71% surv 59%	-$13,449 NOT cap gain +$9,901
Max even-money escape in the band	~$105	20 Nov 2026	19d left	+$0.06/sh	+$56 cycle +$3,756 [-$1,116…-$414] · 14% credit	74% surv 66%	-$10,862 NOT cap gain +$12,488
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$120	20 Nov 2026	19d left	-$3.05/sh	-$3,051 cycle +$649 [-$5,327…-$3,961]	91% surv 90%	-$3 NOT cap gain +$23,347
budget: banked $3,700 debit $3,051 (82% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$649 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,584/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,100/mo
vs 50% target ($5,382/mo)	+106%
vs normal income ($10,765/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,600/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $100 is $20 below CC-SS $119.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,014
… as % of IC ($49,950)	32.1%
… as % of ML ($64,950)	24.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-23,375

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.93/sh (~25% of the $3.70 collected) or spot ≥ $103.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $99-103.72	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $103.72	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$100.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,700	$-15,749	+$7,601	+$2,980
+2.5%	$102.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,200	$-15,922	+$7,428	+$480
+5%	$105.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,300	$-16,094	+$7,256	-$2,020
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.95 (1.5σ)	$-11,250	$-16,781	+$6,569	-$11,970

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $119.71, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,350

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,254

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $100): -$16,014

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,109 (+$6,241 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,089 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,020, the opportunity cost of earning $11,100/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (52 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 52 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.931 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,254 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,089

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$111	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.57	10/10	$570	$5,700	$4,200	91%hist 95%	19%hist 13%	92%	+$2,685	-$8,144	16.3%	0.8mo	$-9,239 (vs do-nothing $-4,150)
$110	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.66	10/10	$660	$6,600	$5,100	89%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	90%	+$2,931	-$9,054	18.1%	0.8mo	$-10,149 (vs do-nothing $-5,060)
$109	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.77	10/10	$770	$7,700	$6,200	88%hist 86%	25%hist 23%	89%	+$3,276	-$9,944	19.9%	0.9mo	$-11,039 (vs do-nothing $-5,950)
$108	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.89	10/10	$890	$8,900	$7,400	86%hist 86%	28%hist 23%	88%	+$3,568	-$10,824	21.7%	1.0mo	$-11,919 (vs do-nothing $-6,830)
$107	3d	30 Oct 2026	$1.03	10/10	$1,030	$10,300	$8,800	85%hist 86%	32%hist 30%	86%	+$3,901	-$11,684	23.4%	1.1mo	$-12,779 (vs do-nothing $-7,690)
$106	3d	30 Oct 2026	$1.19	10/10	$1,190	$11,900	$10,400	83%hist 86%	36%hist 30%	85%	+$4,246	-$12,524	25.1%	1.2mo	$-13,619 (vs do-nothing $-8,530)
$105	3d	30 Oct 2026	$1.37	10/10	$1,370	$13,700	$12,200	80%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	83%	+$4,541	-$13,344	26.7%	1.2mo	$-14,439 (vs do-nothing $-9,350)
$107	10d	6 Nov 2026	$1.80	10/10	$1,800	$5,400	$3,900	80%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	83%	+$1,811	-$10,914	21.8%	1.0mo	$-12,009 (vs do-nothing $-6,920)
$106	10d	6 Nov 2026	$2.01	10/10	$2,010	$6,030	$4,530	78%hist 83%	45%hist 40%	82%	+$1,920	-$11,704	23.4%	1.1mo	$-12,799 (vs do-nothing $-7,710)
$104	3d	30 Oct 2026	$1.57	10/10	$1,570	$15,700	$14,200	78%hist 83%	45%hist 40%	82%	+$4,883	-$14,144	28.3%	1.3mo	$-15,239 (vs do-nothing $-10,150)
$105	10d	6 Nov 2026	$2.24	10/10	$2,240	$6,720	$5,220	76%hist 83%	50%hist 40%	81%	+$2,027	-$12,474	25.0%	1.2mo	$-13,569 (vs do-nothing $-8,480)
$103	3d	30 Oct 2026	$1.80	10/10	$1,800	$18,000	$16,500	75%hist 83%	51%hist 44%	80%	+$5,209	-$14,914	29.9%	1.4mo	$-16,009 (vs do-nothing $-10,920)
$104	10d	6 Nov 2026	$2.48	10/10	$2,480	$7,440	$5,940	74%hist 83%	54%hist 44%	79%	+$2,095	-$13,234	26.5%	1.2mo	$-14,329 (vs do-nothing $-9,240)

Show 39 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$102	3d	30 Oct 2026	$2.06	10/10	$2,060	$20,600	$19,100	73%hist 83%	57%hist 44%	78%	+$5,523	-$15,654	31.3%	1.5mo	$-16,749 (vs do-nothing $-11,660)
$104	17d	13 Nov 2026	$3.15	10/10	$3,150	$5,559	$4,059	72%hist 83%	59%hist 44%	78%	+$1,464	-$12,564	25.2%	1.2mo	$-13,659 (vs do-nothing $-8,570)
$103	10d	6 Nov 2026	$2.75	10/10	$2,750	$8,250	$6,750	72%hist 83%	59%hist 44%	78%	+$2,182	-$13,964	28.0%	1.3mo	$-15,059 (vs do-nothing $-9,970)
$103	17d	13 Nov 2026	$3.40	10/10	$3,400	$6,000	$4,500	70%hist 83%	63%hist 54%	77%	+$1,440	-$13,314	26.7%	1.2mo	$-14,409 (vs do-nothing $-9,320)
$101	3d	30 Oct 2026	$2.34	10/10	$2,340	$23,400	$21,900	70%hist 66%	63%hist 54%	76%	+$5,716	-$16,374	32.8%	1.5mo	$-17,469 (vs do-nothing $-12,380)
$102	10d	6 Nov 2026	$3.00	10/10	$3,000	$9,000	$7,500	70%hist 66%	64%hist 54%	76%	+$2,131	-$14,714	29.5%	1.4mo	$-15,809 (vs do-nothing $-10,720)
$102	17d	13 Nov 2026	$3.75	10/10	$3,750	$6,618	$5,118	68%hist 66%	68%hist 54%	76%	+$1,549	-$13,964	28.0%	1.3mo	$-15,059 (vs do-nothing $-9,970)
$101	10d	6 Nov 2026	$3.35	10/10	$3,350	$10,050	$8,550	67%hist 66%	69%hist 54%	75%	+$2,294	-$15,364	30.8%	1.4mo	$-16,459 (vs do-nothing $-11,370)
$102	24d	20 Nov 2026	$4.40	10/10	$4,400	$5,500	$4,000	67%hist 66%	70%hist 68%	75%	+$1,250	-$13,314	26.7%	1.2mo	$-14,409 (vs do-nothing $-9,320)
$100	3d	30 Oct 2026	$2.65	10/10	$2,650	$26,500	$25,000	67%hist 66%	69%hist 54%	75%	+$5,832	-$17,064	34.2%	1.6mo	$-18,159 (vs do-nothing $-13,070)
$101	17d	13 Nov 2026	$4.05	10/10	$4,050	$7,147	$5,647	66%hist 66%	72%hist 68%	74%	+$1,526	-$14,664	29.4%	1.4mo	$-15,759 (vs do-nothing $-10,670)
$101	24d	20 Nov 2026	$4.75	10/10	$4,750	$5,938	$4,438	65%hist 66%	75%hist 68%	74%	+$1,278	-$13,964	28.0%	1.3mo	$-15,059 (vs do-nothing $-9,970)
$100	10d	6 Nov 2026	$3.70	10/10	$3,700	$11,100	$9,600	65%hist 66%	75%hist 68%	74%	+$2,367	-$16,014	32.1%	1.5mo	$-17,109 (vs do-nothing $-12,020)
$100	17d	13 Nov 2026	$4.40	10/10	$4,400	$7,765	$6,265	64%hist 66%	77%hist 68%	73%	+$1,543	-$15,314	30.7%	1.4mo	$-16,409 (vs do-nothing $-11,320)
$99	3d	30 Oct 2026	$2.99	10/10	$2,990	$29,900	$28,400	63%hist 66%	76%hist 68%	73%	+$5,895	-$17,724	35.5%	1.6mo	$-18,819 (vs do-nothing $-13,730)
$100	24d	20 Nov 2026	$5.10	10/10	$5,100	$6,375	$4,875	63%hist 66%	79%hist 68%	73%	+$1,277	-$14,614	29.3%	1.4mo	$-15,709 (vs do-nothing $-10,620)
$99	10d	6 Nov 2026	$4.05	10/10	$4,050	$12,150	$10,650	62%hist 66%	80%hist 79%	72%	+$2,348	-$16,664	33.4%	1.5mo	$-17,759 (vs do-nothing $-12,670)
$99	17d	13 Nov 2026	$4.80	10/10	$4,800	$8,471	$6,971	61%hist 66%	83%hist 79%	72%	+$1,599	-$15,914	31.9%	1.5mo	$-17,009 (vs do-nothing $-11,920)
$99	24d	20 Nov 2026	$5.50	10/10	$5,500	$6,875	$5,375	61%hist 66%	84%hist 79%	72%	+$1,306	-$15,214	30.5%	1.4mo	$-16,309 (vs do-nothing $-11,220)
$98	3d	30 Oct 2026	$3.35	10/10	$3,350	$33,500	$32,000	60%hist 66%	83%hist 79%	71%	+$5,780	-$18,364	36.8%	1.7mo	$-19,459 (vs do-nothing $-14,370)
$98	10d	6 Nov 2026	$4.45	10/10	$4,450	$13,350	$11,850	59%hist 70%	86%hist 79%	71%	+$2,382	-$17,264	34.6%	1.6mo	$-18,359 (vs do-nothing $-13,270)
$98	17d	13 Nov 2026	$5.20	10/10	$5,200	$9,176	$7,676	59%hist 70%	88%hist 79%	71%	+$1,605	-$16,514	33.1%	1.5mo	$-17,609 (vs do-nothing $-12,520)
$98	24d	20 Nov 2026	$5.90	10/10	$5,900	$7,375	$5,875	59%hist 70%	89%hist 79%	71%	+$1,303	-$15,814	31.7%	1.5mo	$-16,909 (vs do-nothing $-11,820)
$97	3d	30 Oct 2026	$3.75	10/10	$3,750	$37,500	$36,000	57%hist 70%	91%hist 89%	69%	+$5,678	-$18,964	38.0%	1.8mo	$-20,059 (vs do-nothing $-14,970)
$97	24d	20 Nov 2026	$6.35	10/10	$6,350	$7,938	$6,438	56%hist 70%	94%hist 89%	70%	+$1,329	-$16,364	32.8%	1.5mo	$-17,459 (vs do-nothing $-12,370)
$97	10d	6 Nov 2026	$4.90	10/10	$4,900	$14,700	$13,200	56%hist 70%	92%hist 89%	69%	+$2,468	-$17,814	35.7%	1.7mo	$-18,909 (vs do-nothing $-13,820)
$97	17d	13 Nov 2026	$5.65	10/10	$5,650	$9,971	$8,471	56%hist 70%	93%hist 89%	69%	+$1,645	-$17,064	34.2%	1.6mo	$-18,159 (vs do-nothing $-13,070)
$96	24d	20 Nov 2026	$6.80	10/10	$6,800	$8,500	$7,000	54%hist 70%	99%hist 89%	69%	+$1,321	-$16,914	33.9%	1.6mo	$-18,009 (vs do-nothing $-12,920)
$96	17d	13 Nov 2026	$6.10	10/10	$6,100	$10,765	$9,265	54%hist 70%	99%hist 89%	68%	+$1,631	-$17,614	35.3%	1.6mo	$-18,709 (vs do-nothing $-13,620)
$96	10d	6 Nov 2026	$5.35	10/10	$5,350	$16,050	$14,550	53%hist 70%	99%hist 89%	68%	+$2,456	-$18,364	36.8%	1.7mo	$-19,459 (vs do-nothing $-14,370)
$96	3d	30 Oct 2026	$4.20	10/10	$4,200	$42,000	$40,500	53%hist 70%	99%hist 89%	67%	+$5,672	-$19,514	39.1%	1.8mo	$-20,609 (vs do-nothing $-15,520)
$95	24d	20 Nov 2026	$7.30	10/10	$7,300	$9,125	$7,625	52%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$1,341	-$17,414	34.9%	1.6mo	$-18,509 (vs do-nothing $-13,420)
$95	17d	13 Nov 2026	$6.60	10/10	$6,600	$11,647	$10,147	51%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$1,651	-$18,114	36.3%	1.7mo	$-19,209 (vs do-nothing $-14,120)
$95	10d	6 Nov 2026	$5.80	10/10	$5,800	$17,400	$15,900	50%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$2,351	-$18,914	37.9%	1.8mo	$-20,009 (vs do-nothing $-14,920)
$94	24d	20 Nov 2026	$7.80	10/10	$7,800	$9,750	$8,250	49%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$1,325	-$17,914	35.9%	1.7mo	$-19,009 (vs do-nothing $-13,920)
$95	3d	30 Oct 2026	$4.70	10/10	$4,700	$47,000	$45,500	49%	100%hist 89%	66%	+$5,747	-$20,014	40.1%	1.9mo	$-21,109 (vs do-nothing $-16,020)
$94	17d	13 Nov 2026	$7.10	10/10	$7,100	$12,529	$11,029	49%	100%hist 89%	66%	+$1,617	-$18,614	37.3%	1.7mo	$-19,709 (vs do-nothing $-14,620)
$94	10d	6 Nov 2026	$6.30	10/10	$6,300	$18,900	$17,400	47%	100%hist 89%	65%	+$2,293	-$19,414	38.9%	1.8mo	$-20,509 (vs do-nothing $-15,420)
$94	3d	30 Oct 2026	$5.25	10/10	$5,250	$52,500	$51,000	46%	100%hist 89%	64%	+$5,887	-$20,464	41.0%	1.9mo	$-21,559 (vs do-nothing $-16,470)

65 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$124	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.09	10/10	$90	$900	$-600	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	+$606	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,006 (vs do-nothing +$4,084)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$123	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.11	10/10	$110	$1,100	$-400	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$741	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-986 (vs do-nothing +$4,104)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$122	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.12	10/10	$120	$1,200	$-300	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$773	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-976 (vs do-nothing +$4,114)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$121	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.14	10/10	$140	$1,400	$-100	97%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$898	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-956 (vs do-nothing +$4,134)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$120	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.16	10/10	$160	$1,600	$100	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$1,010	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-936 (vs do-nothing +$4,154)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$119	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.18	10/10	$180	$1,800	$300	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$1,105	-$534	1.1%	0.0mo	$-1,629 (vs do-nothing +$3,460)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$124	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.26	10/10	$260	$780	$-720	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$481	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-836 (vs do-nothing +$4,254)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$118	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.21	10/10	$210	$2,100	$600	96%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	96%	+$1,280	-$1,504	3.0%	0.1mo	$-2,599 (vs do-nothing +$2,490)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$123	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.29	10/10	$290	$870	$-630	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$524	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-806 (vs do-nothing +$4,284)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$117	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.23	10/10	$230	$2,300	$800	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$1,326	-$2,484	5.0%	0.2mo	$-3,579 (vs do-nothing +$1,510)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$122	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.32	10/10	$320	$960	$-540	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$560	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-776 (vs do-nothing +$4,314)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$121	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.36	10/10	$360	$1,080	$-420	95%hist 95%	10%hist 4%	96%	+$631	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-736 (vs do-nothing +$4,354)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$116	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.27	10/10	$270	$2,700	$1,200	95%hist 95%	10%hist 4%	96%	+$1,536	-$3,444	6.9%	0.3mo	$-4,539 (vs do-nothing +$550)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$120	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.40	10/10	$400	$1,200	$-300	95%hist 95%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$709	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-696 (vs do-nothing +$4,394)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$124	17d	13 Nov 2026	$0.46	10/10	$460	$812	$-688	95%hist 95%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$460	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-636 (vs do-nothing +$4,454)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$115	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.31	10/10	$310	$3,100	$1,600	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$1,701	-$4,404	8.8%	0.4mo	$-5,499 (vs do-nothing $-410)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$123	17d	13 Nov 2026	$0.51	10/10	$510	$900	$-600	94%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$501	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-586 (vs do-nothing +$4,504)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$119	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.45	10/10	$450	$1,350	$-150	94%hist 95%	12%hist 13%	94%	+$725	-$264	0.5%	0.0mo	$-1,359 (vs do-nothing +$3,730)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$122	17d	13 Nov 2026	$0.56	10/10	$560	$988	$-512	94%hist 95%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$534	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-536 (vs do-nothing +$4,554)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$114	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.36	10/10	$360	$3,600	$2,100	94%hist 95%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$1,909	-$5,354	10.7%	0.5mo	$-6,449 (vs do-nothing $-1,360)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$118	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.51	10/10	$510	$1,530	$30	93%hist 95%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$804	-$1,204	2.4%	0.1mo	$-2,299 (vs do-nothing +$2,790)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$121	17d	13 Nov 2026	$0.62	10/10	$620	$1,094	$-406	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$577	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-476 (vs do-nothing +$4,614)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$113	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.42	10/10	$420	$4,200	$2,700	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	93%	+$2,149	-$6,294	12.6%	0.6mo	$-7,389 (vs do-nothing $-2,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$117	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.57	10/10	$570	$1,710	$210	93%hist 95%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$866	-$2,144	4.3%	0.2mo	$-3,239 (vs do-nothing +$1,850)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$120	17d	13 Nov 2026	$0.68	10/10	$680	$1,200	$-300	93%hist 95%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$611	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-416 (vs do-nothing +$4,674)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$119	17d	13 Nov 2026	$0.75	10/10	$750	$1,324	$-176	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	93%	+$653	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,059 (vs do-nothing +$4,030)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$112	3d	30 Oct 2026	$0.49	10/10	$490	$4,900	$3,400	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	92%	+$2,412	-$7,224	14.5%	0.7mo	$-8,319 (vs do-nothing $-3,230)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$116	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.64	10/10	$640	$1,920	$420	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	92%	+$941	-$3,074	6.2%	0.3mo	$-4,169 (vs do-nothing +$920)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$118	17d	13 Nov 2026	$0.83	10/10	$830	$1,465	$-35	91%hist 95%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$703	-$884	1.8%	0.1mo	$-1,979 (vs do-nothing +$3,110)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$115	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.72	10/10	$720	$2,160	$660	91%hist 95%	19%hist 13%	92%	+$1,023	-$3,994	8.0%	0.4mo	$-5,089 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$120	24d	20 Nov 2026	$0.99	10/10	$990	$1,238	$-262	91%hist 95%	19%hist 13%	92%	+$594	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-106 (vs do-nothing +$4,984)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$117	17d	13 Nov 2026	$0.92	10/10	$920	$1,624	$124	90%hist 95%	20%hist 13%	91%	+$757	-$1,794	3.6%	0.2mo	$-2,889 (vs do-nothing +$2,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$114	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.81	10/10	$810	$2,430	$930	90%hist 95%	21%hist 23%	91%	+$1,112	-$4,904	9.8%	0.5mo	$-5,999 (vs do-nothing $-910)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$116	17d	13 Nov 2026	$1.02	10/10	$1,020	$1,800	$300	90%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	90%	+$816	-$2,694	5.4%	0.3mo	$-3,789 (vs do-nothing +$1,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$113	10d	6 Nov 2026	$0.91	10/10	$910	$2,730	$1,230	89%hist 86%	23%hist 23%	90%	+$1,202	-$5,804	11.6%	0.5mo	$-6,899 (vs do-nothing $-1,810)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$115	17d	13 Nov 2026	$1.12	10/10	$1,120	$1,976	$476	89%hist 86%	24%hist 23%	90%	+$860	-$3,594	7.2%	0.3mo	$-4,689 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$112	10d	6 Nov 2026	$1.02	10/10	$1,020	$3,060	$1,560	88%hist 86%	25%hist 23%	89%	+$1,291	-$6,694	13.4%	0.6mo	$-7,789 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$116	24d	20 Nov 2026	$1.40	10/10	$1,400	$1,750	$250	88%hist 86%	26%hist 23%	89%	+$743	-$2,314	4.6%	0.2mo	$-3,409 (vs do-nothing +$1,680)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$114	17d	13 Nov 2026	$1.24	10/10	$1,240	$2,188	$688	88%hist 86%	26%hist 23%	89%	+$922	-$4,474	9.0%	0.4mo	$-5,569 (vs do-nothing $-480)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$115	24d	20 Nov 2026	$1.52	10/10	$1,520	$1,900	$400	87%hist 86%	28%hist 23%	88%	+$776	-$3,194	6.4%	0.3mo	$-4,289 (vs do-nothing +$800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$111	10d	6 Nov 2026	$1.15	10/10	$1,150	$3,450	$1,950	86%hist 86%	28%hist 23%	88%	+$1,405	-$7,564	15.1%	0.7mo	$-8,659 (vs do-nothing $-3,570)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$113	17d	13 Nov 2026	$1.36	10/10	$1,360	$2,400	$900	86%hist 86%	28%hist 23%	88%	+$966	-$5,354	10.7%	0.5mo	$-6,449 (vs do-nothing $-1,360)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$114	24d	20 Nov 2026	$1.67	10/10	$1,670	$2,088	$588	86%hist 86%	30%hist 30%	87%	+$834	-$4,044	8.1%	0.4mo	$-5,139 (vs do-nothing $-50)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$112	17d	13 Nov 2026	$1.51	10/10	$1,510	$2,665	$1,165	85%hist 86%	31%hist 30%	87%	+$1,044	-$6,204	12.4%	0.6mo	$-7,299 (vs do-nothing $-2,210)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$110	10d	6 Nov 2026	$1.29	10/10	$1,290	$3,870	$2,370	85%hist 86%	31%hist 30%	87%	+$1,510	-$8,424	16.9%	0.8mo	$-9,519 (vs do-nothing $-4,430)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$113	24d	20 Nov 2026	$1.82	10/10	$1,820	$2,275	$775	84%hist 86%	33%hist 30%	86%	+$877	-$4,894	9.8%	0.5mo	$-5,989 (vs do-nothing $-900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$111	17d	13 Nov 2026	$1.65	10/10	$1,650	$2,912	$1,412	84%hist 86%	34%hist 30%	86%	+$1,081	-$7,064	14.1%	0.7mo	$-8,159 (vs do-nothing $-3,070)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$109	10d	6 Nov 2026	$1.44	10/10	$1,440	$4,320	$2,820	84%hist 86%	34%hist 30%	86%	+$1,600	-$9,274	18.6%	0.9mo	$-10,369 (vs do-nothing $-5,280)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$112	24d	20 Nov 2026	$1.97	10/10	$1,970	$2,462	$962	83%hist 86%	35%hist 30%	86%	+$906	-$5,744	11.5%	0.5mo	$-6,839 (vs do-nothing $-1,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$110	17d	13 Nov 2026	$1.82	10/10	$1,820	$3,212	$1,712	82%hist 86%	37%hist 30%	85%	+$1,146	-$7,894	15.8%	0.7mo	$-8,989 (vs do-nothing $-3,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$108	10d	6 Nov 2026	$1.61	10/10	$1,610	$4,830	$3,330	82%hist 86%	38%hist 30%	85%	+$1,702	-$10,104	20.2%	0.9mo	$-11,199 (vs do-nothing $-6,110)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$111	24d	20 Nov 2026	$2.15	10/10	$2,150	$2,688	$1,188	82%hist 86%	38%hist 30%	85%	+$956	-$6,564	13.1%	0.6mo	$-7,659 (vs do-nothing $-2,570)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$109	17d	13 Nov 2026	$2.00	10/10	$2,000	$3,529	$2,029	81%hist 86%	40%hist 30%	84%	+$1,204	-$8,714	17.4%	0.8mo	$-9,809 (vs do-nothing $-4,720)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$110	24d	20 Nov 2026	$2.33	10/10	$2,330	$2,912	$1,412	81%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	84%	+$989	-$7,384	14.8%	0.7mo	$-8,479 (vs do-nothing $-3,390)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$108	17d	13 Nov 2026	$2.20	10/10	$2,200	$3,882	$2,382	79%hist 83%	43%hist 40%	83%	+$1,269	-$9,514	19.0%	0.9mo	$-10,609 (vs do-nothing $-5,520)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$107	17d	13 Nov 2026	$2.41	10/10	$2,410	$4,253	$2,753	78%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	82%	+$1,321	-$10,304	20.6%	1.0mo	$-11,399 (vs do-nothing $-6,310)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$108	24d	20 Nov 2026	$2.76	10/10	$2,760	$3,450	$1,950	78%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	82%	+$1,084	-$8,954	17.9%	0.8mo	$-10,049 (vs do-nothing $-4,960)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$109	24d	20 Nov 2026	$2.54	10/10	$2,540	$3,175	$1,675	77%hist 83%	50%hist 40%	80%	+$162	-$8,174	16.4%	0.8mo	$-9,269 (vs do-nothing $-4,180)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$107	24d	20 Nov 2026	$2.98	10/10	$2,980	$3,725	$2,225	76%hist 83%	51%hist 44%	81%	+$1,106	-$9,734	19.5%	0.9mo	$-10,829 (vs do-nothing $-5,740)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$106	17d	13 Nov 2026	$2.64	10/10	$2,640	$4,659	$3,159	76%hist 83%	51%hist 44%	80%	+$1,375	-$11,074	22.2%	1.0mo	$-12,169 (vs do-nothing $-7,080)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$106	24d	20 Nov 2026	$3.20	10/10	$3,200	$4,000	$2,500	74%hist 83%	54%hist 44%	79%	+$1,106	-$10,514	21.0%	1.0mo	$-11,609 (vs do-nothing $-6,520)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$105	17d	13 Nov 2026	$2.89	10/10	$2,890	$5,100	$3,600	74%hist 83%	54%hist 44%	79%	+$1,430	-$11,824	23.7%	1.1mo	$-12,919 (vs do-nothing $-7,830)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$105	24d	20 Nov 2026	$3.50	10/10	$3,500	$4,375	$2,875	73%hist 83%	58%hist 44%	78%	+$1,181	-$11,214	22.5%	1.0mo	$-12,309 (vs do-nothing $-7,220)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$104	24d	20 Nov 2026	$3.75	10/10	$3,750	$4,688	$3,188	71%hist 83%	62%hist 54%	77%	+$1,169	-$11,964	24.0%	1.1mo	$-13,059 (vs do-nothing $-7,970)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$103	24d	20 Nov 2026	$4.05	10/10	$4,050	$5,062	$3,562	69%hist 66%	66%hist 54%	76%	+$1,192	-$12,664	25.4%	1.2mo	$-13,759 (vs do-nothing $-8,670)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-28 03:16