FORTRESS FIGHT: HOOD @ $90.84

BE SS: $114.95  |  CC-SS: $120.05  |  10 contracts (1,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-29 03:13

HOOD @ $90.84   UNDERWATER $24.11 (21.0% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $114.95  |  CC-SS: $120.05 (banked floor $116.74)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $73.339/sh)
SP: $95 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $26.184/sh)
HP: $80 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $2.794/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$64,950(ND $49.95 + SW $15) x 1000
Normal income ref$8,344/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$1,671/mo
Unrealized P&L$-28,625fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,172/mo
HEDGE COVER
$1,671/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$8,344/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
6.0 mo to earn back $49,950
ML VELOCITY
7.8 mo to earn back $64,950
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $120.05 (probe: $120C 16d) brings only $281/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-09-21
$3,486
Hole (after banked)
$25,139
was $28,625 · 12% earned back
Cycles closed
18
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$120.05 → $116.74
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (18) and event log · CLOSED 15 · UNKNOWN 2 · EXPIRED 1 · updated 2026-10-29 03:10
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED5x $105C 23 Oct 2026$0.57$2852026-10-212026-10-22$0.11$230U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $105C 23 Oct 2026$0.57$572026-10-212026-10-22$0.11$46U6241782execution
CLOSED4x $105C 23 Oct 2026$0.57$2282026-10-212026-10-22$0.11$184U6241782execution
CLOSED10x $115C 16 Oct 2026$0.81$8102026-10-132026-10-15$0.07$740U6241782execution
CLOSED2x $120C 16 Oct 2026$0.58$1162026-10-082026-10-13$0.27$62U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $120C 16 Oct 2026$0.58$582026-10-082026-10-13$0.27$31U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $120C 16 Oct 2026$0.58$582026-10-082026-10-13$0.27$31U6241782execution
CLOSED6x $120C 16 Oct 2026$0.58$3482026-10-082026-10-13$0.27$186U6241782execution
CLOSED10x $120C 9 Oct 2026$0.79$7902026-10-062026-10-08$0.08$710U6241782execution
CLOSED5x $125C 9 Oct 2026$1.01$5072026-10-052026-10-06$0.27$372U6241782snapshot
CLOSED1x $125C 9 Oct 2026$1.01$1012026-10-052026-10-06$0.27$74U6241782snapshot
CLOSED1x $125C 9 Oct 2026$1.01$1012026-10-052026-10-06$0.27$74U6241782snapshot
CLOSED1x $125C 9 Oct 2026$1.01$1012026-10-052026-10-06$0.27$74U6241782snapshot
CLOSED1x $125C 9 Oct 2026$1.01$1012026-10-052026-10-06$0.27$74U6241782snapshot
CLOSED1x $125C 9 Oct 2026$1.01$1012026-10-052026-10-06$0.27$74U6241782snapshot
EXPIRED10x $126C 25 Sep 2026$0.52$5232026-09-252026-09-28$0.00$523U6241782snapshot
UNKNOWN10x $145C 2 Oct 2026$0.81$8122026-09-222026-09-25$0.81$0U6241782snapshot
UNKNOWN10x $130C 25 Sep 2026$0.94$9432026-09-212026-09-22$0.94$0U6241782seed
Event log
2026-10-22 CLOSED 5x $105C 20261023: banked $230
2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 4x $105C: banked $184 (5 remain)
2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $105C: banked $46 (9 remain)
2026-10-21 SOLD 10x $105C 20261023 @ $0.57 (new leg)
2026-10-15 CLOSED 10x $115C 20261016: banked $740
2026-10-13 CLOSED 2x $120C 20261016: banked $62
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 6x $120C: banked $186 (2 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $120C: banked $31 (8 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $120C: banked $31 (9 remain)
2026-10-13 SOLD 8x $115C 20261016 @ $0.81 (extends leg to 10)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $115C 20261016 @ $0.81 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $115C 20261016 @ $0.81 (new leg)
2026-10-08 SOLD 10x $120C 20261016 @ $0.58 (new leg)
2026-10-08 CLOSED 10x $120C 20261009: banked $710
2026-10-06 CLOSED 5x $125C 20261009: banked $372
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $125C: banked $74 (5 remain)
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $125C: banked $74 (6 remain)
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $125C: banked $74 (7 remain)
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $125C: banked $74 (8 remain)
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $125C: banked $74 (9 remain)
2026-10-06 SOLD 5x $120C 20261009 @ $0.79 (extends leg to 10)
2026-10-06 SOLD 2x $120C 20261009 @ $0.79 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $120C 20261009 @ $0.79 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $120C 20261009 @ $0.79 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $120C 20261009 @ $0.79 (new leg)
2026-10-05 TRACKING 10x $125C 20261009 @ $1.01 (snapshot)
2026-09-28 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 10x $126C: banked $523
2026-09-25 TRACKING 10x $126C 20260925 @ $0.52 (snapshot)
2026-09-25 ? 10x $145C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-22 TRACKING 10x $145C 20261002 @ $0.81 (snapshot)
2026-09-22 ? 10x $130C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-21 TRACKING 10x $130C 20260925 @ $0.94 (seed)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 16 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 35 · %B 12 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $104.74 (+15%) · daily UBB $117.36 · 1-wk expected move ±$8 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2027-02-10: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 10 contracts at $97 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 88%, breach 12%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($4,172/mo); it brings $5,100/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $95/2d for $9,450/mo, but breach risk rises to 21% (+8pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $121/16d (98% survival, $262/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $22,708 (45% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $115, recoverable in 2.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-28,635 and cuts bleed by $1,671/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 (2d) · sell 10 × $97, 88% survival, $5,100/mo (E[net] $4,473/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆30 Oct 2026 · 2d10 × $9788%$5,100$4,473
NEXT FRIDAY6 Nov 2026 · 9d10 × $9776%$4,800$979
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $340 with probability 88%; on the 12% touch you roll, paying $1,524 to close and taking $1,917 back from the best priced door (net cash $0) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 · 2d · E[net] $4,473/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $97 (50% normal), 88% survival, breach 12%, $5,100/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $98 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 91% (breach 12% → 9%) for $1,350/mo less (26% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
HOOD  spot $90.84 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸cover hedge10 × $10030 Oct2d10.1%95%hist 95%11%hist 13%+2pp$130$1,950-$3,150$19,918
Sell 10 × $100 10.1% OTM over spot $90.84 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.14 mid)
= $130 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,950/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $100)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $100.14)
95%
EV / mo
+$1,055
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
52% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-272/mo
median; plan ~$-185/mo after 68% keep · $-1,215 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
4%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,441
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$112 @ 84% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $1.57–$2.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 113 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $102 (overshoots $1.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1006 Nov 20268d left+$1.89/sh+$1,894
cycle +$2,024
[+$1,844…+$2,107] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$18,421 NOT
cap gain +$10,204
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10713 Nov 202615d left+$0.39/sh+$394
cycle +$524
[-$297…+$477] · 64% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$13,528 NOT
cap gain +$15,097
Max even-money escape in the band~$11220 Nov 202622d left+$0.02/sh+$23
cycle +$153
[-$855…+$84] · 34% credit
84%
surv 82%
-$9,433 NOT
cap gain +$19,192
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1056 Nov 20268d left+$0.01/sh+$13
cycle +$143
[-$633…+$44] · 33% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$15,695 NOT
cap gain +$12,930
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,950/mo
vs 50% target ($4,172/mo)-53%
vs normal income ($8,344/mo)23% covered
Net income (after hedge)$279/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $100 is $20 below CC-SS $120.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$19,918
… as % of IC ($49,950)39.9%
… as % of ML ($64,950)30.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-28,630
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $100.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$99-100.14
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $100.14
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.89 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$100.00 (2.3σ)$130$-20,315+$8,310-$120
+2.5%$102.50 (2.9σ)$-2,370$-20,583+$8,042-$2,620
+5%$105.00 (3.5σ)$-4,870$-20,850+$7,775-$5,120
SS (= V-bounce)$114.95 (6.0σ)$-14,820$-21,915+$6,710-$15,070
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $120.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,083
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $100): -$19,918
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,460 (+$6,165 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,120, the opportunity cost of earning $1,950/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $104.74 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,610, position total $-20,822 (+$7,803 vs today)
▸33% normal10 × $9830 Oct2d7.9%91%hist 95%19%hist 13%+8pp$250$3,750-$1,350$21,798
Sell 10 × $98 7.9% OTM over spot $90.84 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.26 mid)
= $250 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $98)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $98.26)
91%
EV / mo
+$1,756
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+8pp
61% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$728/mo
median; plan ~$495/mo after 68% keep · $2,232 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.4], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
9%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,289
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$111 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.18/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.59–$3.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 276 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $100 (overshoots $1.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$986 Nov 20268d left+$1.91/sh+$1,910
cycle +$2,160
[+$1,809…+$2,108] · 100% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$20,071 NOT
cap gain +$8,554
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10513 Nov 202615d left+$0.41/sh+$410
cycle +$660
[-$416…+$456] · 61% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$15,178 NOT
cap gain +$13,447
Max even-money escape in the band~$11020 Nov 202622d left+$0.04/sh+$41
cycle +$291
[-$997…+$59] · 29% credit
84%
surv 82%
-$11,081 NOT
cap gain +$17,544
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1036 Nov 20268d left+$0.03/sh+$29
cycle +$279
[-$790…+$25] · 27% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$17,344 NOT
cap gain +$11,281
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11120 Nov 202622d left-$0.12/sh-$119
cycle +$131
[-$1,202…-$112] · 19% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$10,348 NOT
cap gain +$18,277
budget: banked $250 debit $119 (48% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,937/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,750/mo
vs 50% target ($4,172/mo)-10%
vs normal income ($8,344/mo)45% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,079/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $98 is $22 below CC-SS $120.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$21,798
… as % of IC ($49,950)43.6%
… as % of ML ($64,950)33.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-28,635
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $98.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $97.02Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$97-98.26
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $98.26
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.89 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$98.00 (1.8σ)$250$-21,981+$6,644+$0
+2.5%$100.45 (2.4σ)$-2,200$-22,243+$6,382-$2,450
+5%$102.90 (3.0σ)$-4,650$-22,505+$6,120-$4,900
SS (= V-bounce)$114.95 (6.0σ)$-16,700$-23,795+$4,830-$16,950
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $120.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,083
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $98): -$21,798
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,340 (+$4,285 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,000, the opportunity cost of earning $3,750/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $104.74 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,490, position total $-22,702 (+$5,923 vs today)
▸🛡 safe yield10 × $9830 Oct2d7.9%91%hist 95%19%hist 13%+8pp$250$3,750-$1,350$21,798
Sell 10 × $98 7.9% OTM over spot $90.84 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.26 mid)
= $250 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $98)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $98.26)
91%
EV / mo
+$1,756
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+8pp
61% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$728/mo
median; plan ~$495/mo after 68% keep · $2,232 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.4], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
9%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,289
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$111 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.18/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.59–$3.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 276 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $100 (overshoots $1.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$986 Nov 20268d left+$1.91/sh+$1,910
cycle +$2,160
[+$1,809…+$2,108] · 100% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$20,071 NOT
cap gain +$8,554
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10513 Nov 202615d left+$0.41/sh+$410
cycle +$660
[-$416…+$456] · 61% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$15,178 NOT
cap gain +$13,447
Max even-money escape in the band~$11020 Nov 202622d left+$0.04/sh+$41
cycle +$291
[-$997…+$59] · 29% credit
84%
surv 82%
-$11,081 NOT
cap gain +$17,544
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1036 Nov 20268d left+$0.03/sh+$29
cycle +$279
[-$790…+$25] · 27% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$17,344 NOT
cap gain +$11,281
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11120 Nov 202622d left-$0.12/sh-$119
cycle +$131
[-$1,202…-$112] · 19% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$10,348 NOT
cap gain +$18,277
budget: banked $250 debit $119 (48% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,937/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,750/mo
vs 50% target ($4,172/mo)-10%
vs normal income ($8,344/mo)45% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,079/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $98 is $22 below CC-SS $120.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$21,798
… as % of IC ($49,950)43.6%
… as % of ML ($64,950)33.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-28,635
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $98.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $97.02Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$97-98.26
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $98.26
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.89 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$98.00 (1.8σ)$250$-21,981+$6,644+$0
+2.5%$100.45 (2.4σ)$-2,200$-22,243+$6,382-$2,450
+5%$102.90 (3.0σ)$-4,650$-22,505+$6,120-$4,900
SS (= V-bounce)$114.95 (6.0σ)$-16,700$-23,795+$4,830-$16,950
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $120.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,083
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $98): -$21,798
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,340 (+$4,285 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,000, the opportunity cost of earning $3,750/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $104.74 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,490, position total $-22,702 (+$5,923 vs today)
▸🎯 50% normal10 × $9730 Oct2d6.8%88%hist 86%25%hist 23%+10pp$340$5,100—$22,708
Sell 10 × $97 6.8% OTM over spot $90.84 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.35 mid)
= $340 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,100/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $97)
88%
Breach risk
12%
POP (stays ≤ $97.35)
89%
EV / mo
+$2,122
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+10pp
60% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,299/mo
median; plan ~$883/mo after 68% keep · $4,966 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-3.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,184
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$111 @ 87% POP
85% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.15/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $1.67–$3.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 369 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $99 (overshoots $2.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$976 Nov 20268d left+$1.92/sh+$1,917
cycle +$2,257
[+$1,772…+$2,054] · 100% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$20,867 NOT
cap gain +$7,758
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10320 Nov 202622d left+$1.44/sh+$1,442
cycle +$1,782
[+$655…+$1,408] · 89% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$15,842 NOT
cap gain +$12,783
Max even-money escape in the band~$10920 Nov 202622d left+$0.05/sh+$49
cycle +$389
[-$1,080…-$34] · 21% credit
84%
surv 82%
-$11,876 NOT
cap gain +$16,749
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1026 Nov 20268d left+$0.04/sh+$36
cycle +$376
[-$823…-$31] · 20% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$18,140 NOT
cap gain +$10,485
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11120 Nov 202622d left-$0.25/sh-$250
cycle +$90
[-$1,464…-$350] · 7% credit
87%
surv 85%
-$10,390 NOT
cap gain +$18,235
budget: banked $340 debit $250 (74% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$90 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,736/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,100/mo
vs 50% target ($4,172/mo)+22%
vs normal income ($8,344/mo)61% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,429/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $97 is $23 below CC-SS $120.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$22,708
… as % of IC ($49,950)45.5%
… as % of ML ($64,950)35.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.7 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-28,635
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $97.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.03Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$96-97.35
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $97.35
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.89 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$97.00 (1.5σ)$340$-22,784+$5,841+$90
+2.5%$99.42 (2.1σ)$-2,085$-23,044+$5,581-$2,335
+5%$101.85 (2.7σ)$-4,510$-23,303+$5,322-$4,760
SS (= V-bounce)$114.95 (6.0σ)$-17,610$-24,705+$3,920-$17,860
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $120.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,083
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $97): -$22,708
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,250 (+$3,375 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,910, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $104.74 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,400, position total $-23,612 (+$5,013 vs today)
▸100% normal10 × $9530 Oct2d4.6%79%hist 83%42%hist 40%+19pp$630$9,450+$4,350$24,418
Sell 10 × $95 4.6% OTM over spot $90.84 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.64 mid)
= $630 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,450/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $95)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $95.64)
82%
EV / mo
+$2,966
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+19pp
69% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~5.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,588/mo
median; plan ~$1,760/mo after 68% keep · $10,057 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-4.0], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
24%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$862
Free roll-up
+$5/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$112 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.66–$3.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.86/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 721 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $97 (overshoots $2.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$956 Nov 20268d left+$1.93/sh+$1,930
cycle +$2,560
[+$1,793…+$2,052] · 100% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$22,351 NOT
cap gain +$6,274
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10120 Nov 202622d left+$1.45/sh+$1,449
cycle +$2,079
[+$691…+$1,408] · 88% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$17,331 NOT
cap gain +$11,294
Max even-money escape in the band~$10720 Nov 202622d left+$0.06/sh+$64
cycle +$694
[-$1,039…-$37] · 22% credit
85%
surv 82%
-$13,358 NOT
cap gain +$15,267
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1006 Nov 20268d left+$0.05/sh+$50
cycle +$680
[-$797…-$26] · 22% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$19,622 NOT
cap gain +$9,003
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11220 Nov 202622d left-$0.59/sh-$590
cycle +$40
[-$1,890…-$715]
90%
surv 89%
-$9,546 NOT
cap gain +$19,079
budget: banked $630 debit $590 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,231/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,450/mo
vs 50% target ($4,172/mo)+127%
vs normal income ($8,344/mo)113% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,779/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $95 is $25 below CC-SS $120.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$24,418
… as % of IC ($49,950)48.9%
… as % of ML ($64,950)37.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-28,635
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $95.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $94.05Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$94-95.64
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $95.64
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.89 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$95.00 (1.0σ)$630$-24,280+$4,345+$380
+2.5%$97.37 (1.6σ)$-1,745$-24,534+$4,091-$1,995
+5%$99.75 (2.2σ)$-4,120$-24,788+$3,837-$4,370
SS (= V-bounce)$114.95 (6.0σ)$-19,320$-26,415+$2,210-$19,570
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $120.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,083
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $95): -$24,418
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,960 (+$1,665 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,620, the opportunity cost of earning $9,450/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $104.74 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,110, position total $-25,322 (+$3,303 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on HOOD are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 9d · E[net] $979/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $97 (50% normal), 76% survival, breach 24%, $4,800/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $100 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 24% → 16%) for $1,833/mo less (38% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $100 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect HOOD to stay flat-to-down near term.
HOOD  spot $90.84 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸cover hedge10 × $1036 Nov9d13.4%90%hist 86%21%hist 23%+3pp$530$1,767-$3,033$16,518
Sell 10 × $103 13.4% OTM over spot $90.84 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.54 mid)
= $530 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,767/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $103)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $103.54)
91%
EV / mo
+$791
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
45% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-578/mo
median; plan ~$-393/mo after 68% keep · $-3,964 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,423
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$109 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.18/sh now → $2.95 mid-life (likely $2.36–$4.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $105 (overshoots $1.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10313 Nov 202612d left+$1.01/sh+$1,012
cycle +$1,542
[+$891…+$1,637] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$16,224 NOT
cap gain +$12,401
Max even-money escape in the band~$10720 Nov 202618d left+$0.30/sh+$301
cycle +$831
[-$95…+$880] · 69% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$13,221 NOT
cap gain +$15,404
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10513 Nov 202612d left+$0.08/sh+$79
cycle +$609
[-$215…+$564] · 57% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$15,229 NOT
cap gain +$13,396
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$10920 Nov 202618d left-$0.35/sh-$346
cycle +$184
[-$825…+$171] · 31% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$12,081 NOT
cap gain +$16,544
budget: banked $530 debit $346 (65% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$184 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,346/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,767/mo
vs 50% target ($4,172/mo)-58%
vs normal income ($8,344/mo)21% covered
Net income (after hedge)$96/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $103 is $17 below CC-SS $120.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$16,518
… as % of IC ($49,950)33.1%
… as % of ML ($64,950)25.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-28,635
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $103.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $101.97Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$102-103.54
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $103.54
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.89 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$103.00 (1.4σ)$530$-17,236+$11,389+$280
+2.5%$105.57 (1.7σ)$-2,045$-17,512+$11,113-$2,295
+5%$108.15 (2.0σ)$-4,620$-17,787+$10,838-$4,870
SS (= V-bounce)$114.95 (2.8σ)$-11,420$-18,515+$10,110-$11,670
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $120.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,083
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $103): -$16,518
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,060 (+$9,565 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,720, the opportunity cost of earning $1,767/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $104.74 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,210, position total $-17,422 (+$11,203 vs today)
▸33% normal ← lean10 × $1006 Nov9d10.1%84%hist 86%33%hist 30%+6pp$890$2,967-$1,833$19,158
Sell 10 × $100 10.1% OTM over spot $90.84 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.90 mid)
= $890 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,967/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $100)
84%
Breach risk
16%
POP (stays ≤ $100.89)
86%
EV / mo
+$1,152
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+6pp
52% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-72/mo
median; plan ~$-49/mo after 68% keep · $-303 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.3], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
21%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,977
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$108 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.05/sh now → $2.87 mid-life (likely $2.76–$4.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.98/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 628 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $102 (overshoots $1.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10013 Nov 202612d left+$1.08/sh+$1,076
cycle +$1,966
[+$789…+$1,457] · 99% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$18,479 NOT
cap gain +$10,146
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10420 Nov 202618d left+$0.36/sh+$363
cycle +$1,253
[-$238…+$634] · 60% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$15,478 NOT
cap gain +$13,147
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10213 Nov 202612d left+$0.14/sh+$144
cycle +$1,034
[-$295…+$379] · 51% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$17,482 NOT
cap gain +$11,143
Max even-money escape in the band~$10520 Nov 202618d left+$0.02/sh+$21
cycle +$911
[-$662…+$260] · 38% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$14,926 NOT
cap gain +$13,699
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$10820 Nov 202618d left-$0.82/sh-$818
cycle +$72
[-$1,671…-$669] · 8% credit
80%
surv 76%
-$13,086 NOT
cap gain +$15,539
budget: banked $890 debit $818 (92% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$72 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,416/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,967/mo
vs 50% target ($4,172/mo)-29%
vs normal income ($8,344/mo)36% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,296/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $100 is $20 below CC-SS $120.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$19,158
… as % of IC ($49,950)38.4%
… as % of ML ($64,950)29.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-28,630
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $100.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$99-100.89
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $100.89
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.89 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$100.00 (1.1σ)$890$-19,555+$9,070+$640
+2.5%$102.50 (1.4σ)$-1,610$-19,823+$8,802-$1,860
+5%$105.00 (1.7σ)$-4,110$-20,090+$8,535-$4,360
SS (= V-bounce)$114.95 (2.8σ)$-14,060$-21,155+$7,470-$14,310
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $120.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,083
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $100): -$19,158
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,700 (+$6,925 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,360, the opportunity cost of earning $2,967/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $104.74 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,850, position total $-20,062 (+$8,563 vs today)
▸🎯 50% normal10 × $976 Nov9d6.8%76%hist 83%50%hist 40%+11pp$1,440$4,800—$21,608
Sell 10 × $97 6.8% OTM over spot $90.84 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $1.45 mid)
= $1,440 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,800/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $97)
76%
Breach risk
24%
POP (stays ≤ $98.45)
80%
EV / mo
+$1,441
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+11pp
60% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.5/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$418/mo
median; plan ~$284/mo after 68% keep · $1,564 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
37%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,341
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$108 @ 85% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.93/sh now → $2.78 mid-life (likely $2.84–$4.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,114 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $99 (overshoots $1.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9713 Nov 202612d left+$1.13/sh+$1,134
cycle +$2,574
[+$777…+$1,336] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$20,550 NOT
cap gain +$8,075
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10020 Nov 202618d left+$0.76/sh+$755
cycle +$2,195
[+$149…+$907] · 84% credit
73%
surv 63%
-$18,107 NOT
cap gain +$10,518
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9913 Nov 202612d left+$0.20/sh+$204
cycle +$1,644
[-$301…+$287] · 41% credit
71%
surv 60%
-$19,551 NOT
cap gain +$9,074
Max even-money escape in the band~$10220 Nov 202618d left+$0.08/sh+$78
cycle +$1,518
[-$684…+$161] · 30% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$16,998 NOT
cap gain +$11,627
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$10820 Nov 202618d left-$1.36/sh-$1,362
cycle +$78
[-$2,475…-$1,389] · 0% credit
85%
surv 82%
-$13,080 NOT
cap gain +$15,545
budget: banked $1,440 debit $1,362 (95% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$78 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,366/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,800/mo
vs 50% target ($4,172/mo)+15%
vs normal income ($8,344/mo)58% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,129/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $97 is $23 below CC-SS $120.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$21,608
… as % of IC ($49,950)43.3%
… as % of ML ($64,950)33.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-28,635
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.44 collected) or spot ≥ $98.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.03Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$96-98.45
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $98.45
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.89 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$97.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,440$-21,684+$6,941+$1,190
+2.5%$99.42 (1.0σ)$-985$-21,944+$6,681-$1,235
+5%$101.85 (1.3σ)$-3,410$-22,203+$6,422-$3,660
SS (= V-bounce)$114.95 (2.8σ)$-16,510$-23,605+$5,020-$16,760
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $120.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,083
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $97): -$21,608
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,150 (+$4,475 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,810, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $104.74 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,300, position total $-22,512 (+$6,113 vs today)
▸100% normal10 × $936 Nov9d2.4%61%hist 66%80%hist 79%+13pp$2,640$8,800+$4,000$24,408
Sell 10 × $93 2.4% OTM over spot $90.84 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $2.67 mid)
= $2,640 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,800/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $93)
61%
Breach risk
39%
POP (stays ≤ $95.67)
72%
EV / mo
+$1,716
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+13pp
58% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~5.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,047/mo
median; plan ~$712/mo after 68% keep · $5,366 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
65%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$27
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$109 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $3.49–$4.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,943 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $95 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9313 Nov 202612d left+$1.20/sh+$1,203
cycle +$3,843
[+$729…+$1,006] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$22,853 NOT
cap gain +$5,772
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$9620 Nov 202618d left+$0.82/sh+$821
cycle +$3,461
[+$28…+$471] · 77% credit
73%
surv 63%
-$20,413 NOT
cap gain +$8,212
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9513 Nov 202612d left+$0.28/sh+$275
cycle +$2,915
[-$376…+$0] · 25% credit
71%
surv 61%
-$21,852 NOT
cap gain +$6,773
Max even-money escape in the band~$9820 Nov 202618d left+$0.14/sh+$144
cycle +$2,784
[-$824…-$251] · 14% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$19,304 NOT
cap gain +$9,321
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$10920 Nov 202618d left-$1.92/sh-$1,920
cycle +$720
[-$3,527…-$2,558]
91%
surv 90%
-$11,546 NOT
cap gain +$17,079
budget: banked $2,640 debit $1,920 (73% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$720 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,243/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$8,800/mo
vs 50% target ($4,172/mo)+111%
vs normal income ($8,344/mo)105% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,129/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $93 is $27 below CC-SS $120.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$24,408
… as % of IC ($49,950)48.9%
… as % of ML ($64,950)37.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-28,650
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.64 collected) or spot ≥ $95.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $92.07Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$92-95.67
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $95.67
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.89 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$93.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,640$-24,056+$4,569+$2,390
+2.5%$95.32 (≤1σ, normal week)$315$-24,305+$4,320+$65
+5%$97.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$-2,010$-24,554+$4,071-$2,260
SS (= V-bounce)$114.95 (2.8σ)$-19,310$-26,405+$2,220-$19,560
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $120.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,083
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $93): -$24,408
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,950 (+$1,675 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,340 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,610, the opportunity cost of earning $8,800/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $104.74 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,100, position total $-25,312 (+$3,313 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on HOOD are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (31 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.893 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$26,083 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,340

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$972d30 Oct 2026$0.3410/10$340$5,100$3,42988%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$2,122-$22,70845.5%2.7mo$-25,250 (vs do-nothing $-17,910)
$962d30 Oct 2026$0.4710/10$470$7,050$5,37984%hist 86%33%hist 30%86%+$2,630-$23,57847.2%2.8mo$-26,120 (vs do-nothing $-18,780)
$952d30 Oct 2026$0.6310/10$630$9,450$7,77979%hist 83%42%hist 40%82%+$2,966-$24,41848.9%2.9mo$-26,960 (vs do-nothing $-19,620)
$979d6 Nov 2026$1.4410/10$1,440$4,800$3,12976%hist 83%50%hist 40%80%+$1,441-$21,60843.3%2.6mo$-24,150 (vs do-nothing $-16,810)
$942d30 Oct 2026$0.8510/10$850$12,750$11,07974%hist 83%54%hist 44%79%+$3,402-$25,19850.4%3.0mo$-27,740 (vs do-nothing $-20,400)
$969d6 Nov 2026$1.6810/10$1,680$5,600$3,92973%hist 83%56%hist 44%78%+$1,527-$22,36844.8%2.7mo$-24,910 (vs do-nothing $-17,570)
$9716d13 Nov 2026$2.2610/10$2,260$4,238$2,56772%hist 83%58%hist 44%78%+$1,144-$20,78841.6%2.5mo$-23,330 (vs do-nothing $-15,990)
$9616d13 Nov 2026$2.5410/10$2,540$4,762$3,09269%hist 66%64%hist 54%76%+$1,177-$21,50843.1%2.6mo$-24,050 (vs do-nothing $-16,710)
$959d6 Nov 2026$1.9610/10$1,960$6,533$4,86269%hist 66%64%hist 54%76%+$1,607-$23,08846.2%2.8mo$-25,630 (vs do-nothing $-18,290)
$932d30 Oct 2026$1.1210/10$1,120$16,800$15,12967%hist 66%67%hist 54%75%+$3,604-$25,92851.9%3.1mo$-28,470 (vs do-nothing $-21,130)
$9623d20 Nov 2026$3.3010/10$3,300$4,304$2,63367%hist 66%69%hist 54%75%+$898-$20,74841.5%2.5mo$-23,290 (vs do-nothing $-15,950)
$9516d13 Nov 2026$2.8810/10$2,880$5,400$3,72966%hist 66%70%hist 68%75%+$1,259-$22,16844.4%2.7mo$-24,710 (vs do-nothing $-17,370)
$949d6 Nov 2026$2.2810/10$2,280$7,600$5,92965%hist 66%72%hist 68%74%+$1,673-$23,76847.6%2.8mo$-26,310 (vs do-nothing $-18,970)
Show 18 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$9523d20 Nov 2026$3.6510/10$3,650$4,761$3,09065%hist 66%75%hist 68%73%+$932-$21,39842.8%2.6mo$-23,940 (vs do-nothing $-16,600)
$9416d13 Nov 2026$3.2010/10$3,200$6,000$4,32963%hist 66%77%hist 68%73%+$1,235-$22,84845.7%2.7mo$-25,390 (vs do-nothing $-18,050)
$9423d20 Nov 2026$4.0010/10$4,000$5,217$3,54762%hist 66%80%hist 79%72%+$1,070-$22,04844.1%2.6mo$-24,590 (vs do-nothing $-17,250)
$939d6 Nov 2026$2.6410/10$2,640$8,800$7,12961%hist 66%80%hist 79%72%+$1,716-$24,40848.9%2.9mo$-26,950 (vs do-nothing $-19,610)
$922d30 Oct 2026$1.4810/10$1,480$22,200$20,52960%hist 66%82%hist 79%71%+$3,998-$26,56853.2%3.2mo$-29,110 (vs do-nothing $-21,770)
$9316d13 Nov 2026$3.6010/10$3,600$6,750$5,07960%hist 70%84%hist 79%71%+$1,288-$23,44846.9%2.8mo$-25,990 (vs do-nothing $-18,650)
$9323d20 Nov 2026$4.4010/10$4,400$5,739$4,06859%hist 70%86%hist 79%71%+$1,088-$22,64845.3%2.7mo$-25,190 (vs do-nothing $-17,850)
$929d6 Nov 2026$3.0510/10$3,050$10,167$8,49657%hist 70%89%hist 79%70%+$2,264-$24,99850.0%3.0mo$-27,540 (vs do-nothing $-20,200)
$9216d13 Nov 2026$4.0010/10$4,000$7,500$5,82957%hist 70%91%hist 89%70%+$1,266-$24,04848.1%2.9mo$-26,590 (vs do-nothing $-19,250)
$9223d20 Nov 2026$4.8010/10$4,800$6,261$4,59056%hist 70%93%hist 89%70%+$1,060-$23,24846.5%2.8mo$-25,790 (vs do-nothing $-18,450)
$9123d20 Nov 2026$5.3010/10$5,300$6,913$5,24253%hist 70%99%hist 89%68%+$1,116-$23,74847.5%2.8mo$-26,290 (vs do-nothing $-18,950)
$9116d13 Nov 2026$4.4510/10$4,450$8,344$6,67353%hist 70%99%hist 89%68%+$1,260-$24,59849.2%2.9mo$-27,140 (vs do-nothing $-19,800)
$919d6 Nov 2026$3.5010/10$3,500$11,667$9,99653%hist 70%98%hist 89%68%+$2,270-$25,54851.1%3.1mo$-28,090 (vs do-nothing $-20,750)
$912d30 Oct 2026$1.8810/10$1,880$28,200$26,52952%hist 70%97%hist 89%67%+$3,671-$27,16854.4%3.3mo$-29,710 (vs do-nothing $-22,370)
$9023d20 Nov 2026$5.8010/10$5,800$7,565$5,89450%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$1,124-$24,24848.5%2.9mo$-26,790 (vs do-nothing $-19,450)
$9016d13 Nov 2026$4.9510/10$4,950$9,281$7,61050%100%hist 89%66%+$1,267-$25,09850.2%3.0mo$-27,640 (vs do-nothing $-20,300)
$909d6 Nov 2026$4.0010/10$4,000$13,333$11,66248%100%hist 89%65%+$1,757-$26,04852.1%3.1mo$-28,590 (vs do-nothing $-21,250)
$902d30 Oct 2026$2.3910/10$2,390$35,850$34,17944%100%hist 89%63%+$3,536-$27,65855.4%3.3mo$-30,200 (vs do-nothing $-22,860)
97 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$1142d30 Oct 2026$0.0110/10$10$150$-1,52199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$150-$6,03812.1%0.7mo$-8,580 (vs do-nothing $-1,240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1132d30 Oct 2026$0.0110/10$10$150$-1,52199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$150-$7,03814.1%0.8mo$-9,580 (vs do-nothing $-2,240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1122d30 Oct 2026$0.0110/10$10$150$-1,52199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$150-$8,03816.1%1.0mo$-10,580 (vs do-nothing $-3,240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1112d30 Oct 2026$0.0110/10$10$150$-1,52199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$150-$9,03818.1%1.1mo$-11,580 (vs do-nothing $-4,240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1102d30 Oct 2026$0.0110/10$10$150$-1,52199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$150-$10,03820.1%1.2mo$-12,580 (vs do-nothing $-5,240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1092d30 Oct 2026$0.0110/10$10$150$-1,52199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$150-$11,03822.1%1.3mo$-13,580 (vs do-nothing $-6,240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1082d30 Oct 2026$0.0210/10$20$300$-1,37199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$300-$12,02824.1%1.4mo$-14,570 (vs do-nothing $-7,230)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1072d30 Oct 2026$0.0210/10$20$300$-1,37199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$300-$13,02826.1%1.6mo$-15,570 (vs do-nothing $-8,230)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1062d30 Oct 2026$0.0210/10$20$300$-1,37199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$300-$14,02828.1%1.7mo$-16,570 (vs do-nothing $-9,230)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1052d30 Oct 2026$0.0310/10$30$450$-1,22199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$449-$15,01830.1%1.8mo$-17,560 (vs do-nothing $-10,220)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1042d30 Oct 2026$0.0410/10$40$600$-1,07199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$598-$16,00832.0%1.9mo$-18,550 (vs do-nothing $-11,210)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1269d6 Nov 2026$0.0210/10$20$67$-1,60499%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$37-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,522 (vs do-nothing +$4,818)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1259d6 Nov 2026$0.0310/10$30$100$-1,57199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$67-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,512 (vs do-nothing +$4,828)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1249d6 Nov 2026$0.0310/10$30$100$-1,57199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$64-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,512 (vs do-nothing +$4,828)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1239d6 Nov 2026$0.0210/10$20$67$-1,60499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$27-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,522 (vs do-nothing +$4,818)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1229d6 Nov 2026$0.0410/10$40$133$-1,53899%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$90-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,502 (vs do-nothing +$4,838)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1219d6 Nov 2026$0.0510/10$50$167$-1,50499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$118-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,492 (vs do-nothing +$4,848)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1209d6 Nov 2026$0.0510/10$50$167$-1,50499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$112-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,540 (vs do-nothing +$4,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1199d6 Nov 2026$0.0510/10$50$167$-1,50499%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$105-$9982.0%0.1mo$-3,540 (vs do-nothing +$3,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12616d13 Nov 2026$0.0810/10$80$150$-1,52199%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$100-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,462 (vs do-nothing +$4,878)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1189d6 Nov 2026$0.0610/10$60$200$-1,47199%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$129-$1,9884.0%0.2mo$-4,530 (vs do-nothing +$2,810)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12516d13 Nov 2026$0.0910/10$90$169$-1,50299%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$113-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,452 (vs do-nothing +$4,888)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1179d6 Nov 2026$0.0710/10$70$233$-1,43898%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$152-$2,9786.0%0.4mo$-5,520 (vs do-nothing +$1,820)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12416d13 Nov 2026$0.1010/10$100$188$-1,48398%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$126-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,442 (vs do-nothing +$4,898)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12316d13 Nov 2026$0.1110/10$110$206$-1,46598%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$137-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,432 (vs do-nothing +$4,908)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1169d6 Nov 2026$0.0910/10$90$300$-1,37198%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$206-$3,9587.9%0.5mo$-6,500 (vs do-nothing +$840)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12216d13 Nov 2026$0.1210/10$120$225$-1,44698%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$148-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,422 (vs do-nothing +$4,918)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1159d6 Nov 2026$0.0910/10$90$300$-1,37198%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$191-$4,9589.9%0.6mo$-7,500 (vs do-nothing $-160)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12116d13 Nov 2026$0.1410/10$140$262$-1,40898%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$176-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,402 (vs do-nothing +$4,938)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1149d6 Nov 2026$0.1010/10$100$333$-1,33898%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$206-$5,94811.9%0.7mo$-8,490 (vs do-nothing $-1,150)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1032d30 Oct 2026$0.0510/10$50$750$-92198%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$476-$16,99834.0%2.0mo$-19,540 (vs do-nothing $-12,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12016d13 Nov 2026$0.1510/10$150$281$-1,39098%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$183-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,440 (vs do-nothing +$4,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12523d20 Nov 2026$0.1910/10$190$248$-1,42398%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$162-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,352 (vs do-nothing +$4,988)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11916d13 Nov 2026$0.1710/10$170$319$-1,35297%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$208-$8781.8%0.1mo$-3,420 (vs do-nothing +$3,920)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1139d6 Nov 2026$0.1210/10$120$400$-1,27197%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$250-$6,92813.9%0.8mo$-9,470 (vs do-nothing $-2,130)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11816d13 Nov 2026$0.1810/10$180$338$-1,33397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$211-$1,8683.7%0.2mo$-4,410 (vs do-nothing +$2,930)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1129d6 Nov 2026$0.1410/10$140$467$-1,20497%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$290-$7,90815.8%0.9mo$-10,450 (vs do-nothing $-3,110)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1022d30 Oct 2026$0.0710/10$70$1,050$-62197%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$648-$17,97836.0%2.2mo$-20,520 (vs do-nothing $-13,180)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11716d13 Nov 2026$0.2010/10$200$375$-1,29697%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$231-$2,8485.7%0.3mo$-5,390 (vs do-nothing +$1,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1119d6 Nov 2026$0.1610/10$160$533$-1,13897%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$323-$8,88817.8%1.1mo$-11,430 (vs do-nothing $-4,090)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11616d13 Nov 2026$0.2210/10$220$412$-1,25897%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$248-$3,8287.7%0.5mo$-6,370 (vs do-nothing +$970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12023d20 Nov 2026$0.2910/10$290$378$-1,29396%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$230-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,300 (vs do-nothing +$5,040)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1109d6 Nov 2026$0.1810/10$180$600$-1,07196%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$349-$9,86819.8%1.2mo$-12,410 (vs do-nothing $-5,070)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11516d13 Nov 2026$0.2510/10$250$469$-1,20296%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$279-$4,7989.6%0.6mo$-7,340 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1012d30 Oct 2026$0.1010/10$100$1,500$-17196%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$900-$18,94837.9%2.3mo$-21,490 (vs do-nothing $-14,150)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11416d13 Nov 2026$0.2710/10$270$506$-1,16596%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$288-$5,77811.6%0.7mo$-8,320 (vs do-nothing $-980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1099d6 Nov 2026$0.2110/10$210$700$-97196%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$404-$10,83821.7%1.3mo$-13,380 (vs do-nothing $-6,040)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11316d13 Nov 2026$0.3110/10$310$581$-1,09095%hist 95%10%hist 4%95%+$328-$6,73813.5%0.8mo$-9,280 (vs do-nothing $-1,940)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1089d6 Nov 2026$0.2410/10$240$800$-87195%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$443-$11,80823.6%1.4mo$-14,350 (vs do-nothing $-7,010)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11623d20 Nov 2026$0.4210/10$420$548$-1,12395%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$309-$3,6287.3%0.4mo$-6,170 (vs do-nothing +$1,170)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11216d13 Nov 2026$0.3510/10$350$656$-1,01595%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$363-$7,69815.4%0.9mo$-10,240 (vs do-nothing $-2,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1002d30 Oct 2026$0.1310/10$130$1,950$27995%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$1,055-$19,91839.9%2.4mo$-22,460 (vs do-nothing $-15,120)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11523d20 Nov 2026$0.4610/10$460$600$-1,07194%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$329-$4,5889.2%0.5mo$-7,130 (vs do-nothing +$210)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1079d6 Nov 2026$0.2810/10$280$933$-73894%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$501-$12,76825.6%1.5mo$-15,310 (vs do-nothing $-7,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11116d13 Nov 2026$0.3910/10$390$731$-94094%hist 95%12%hist 13%94%+$390-$8,65817.3%1.0mo$-11,200 (vs do-nothing $-3,860)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11423d20 Nov 2026$0.5110/10$510$665$-1,00694%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$357-$5,53811.1%0.7mo$-8,080 (vs do-nothing $-740)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1069d6 Nov 2026$0.3310/10$330$1,100$-57193%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$573-$13,71827.5%1.6mo$-16,260 (vs do-nothing $-8,920)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11016d13 Nov 2026$0.4410/10$440$825$-84693%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$427-$9,60819.2%1.2mo$-12,150 (vs do-nothing $-4,810)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11323d20 Nov 2026$0.5710/10$570$743$-92793%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$393-$6,47813.0%0.8mo$-9,020 (vs do-nothing $-1,680)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$992d30 Oct 2026$0.1810/10$180$2,700$1,02993%hist 95%14%hist 13%93%+$1,365-$20,86841.8%2.5mo$-23,410 (vs do-nothing $-16,070)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10916d13 Nov 2026$0.5010/10$500$938$-73393%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$472-$10,54821.1%1.3mo$-13,090 (vs do-nothing $-5,750)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11223d20 Nov 2026$0.6210/10$620$809$-86292%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$410-$7,42814.9%0.9mo$-9,970 (vs do-nothing $-2,630)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1059d6 Nov 2026$0.3910/10$390$1,300$-37192%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$655-$14,65829.3%1.8mo$-17,200 (vs do-nothing $-9,860)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11123d20 Nov 2026$0.6910/10$690$900$-77192%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$445-$8,35816.7%1.0mo$-10,900 (vs do-nothing $-3,560)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10816d13 Nov 2026$0.5710/10$570$1,069$-60292%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$524-$11,47823.0%1.4mo$-14,020 (vs do-nothing $-6,680)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11023d20 Nov 2026$0.7710/10$770$1,004$-66791%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$517-$9,27818.6%1.1mo$-11,820 (vs do-nothing $-4,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1049d6 Nov 2026$0.4510/10$450$1,500$-17191%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$707-$15,59831.2%1.9mo$-18,140 (vs do-nothing $-10,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$982d30 Oct 2026$0.2510/10$250$3,750$2,07991%hist 95%19%hist 13%91%+$1,756-$21,79843.6%2.6mo$-24,340 (vs do-nothing $-17,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10716d13 Nov 2026$0.6410/10$640$1,200$-47191%hist 95%19%hist 13%91%+$562-$12,40824.8%1.5mo$-14,950 (vs do-nothing $-7,610)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10923d20 Nov 2026$0.8510/10$850$1,109$-56290%hist 95%20%hist 23%91%+$538-$10,19820.4%1.2mo$-12,740 (vs do-nothing $-5,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1039d6 Nov 2026$0.5310/10$530$1,767$9690%hist 86%21%hist 23%91%+$791-$16,51833.1%2.0mo$-19,060 (vs do-nothing $-11,720)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10616d13 Nov 2026$0.7310/10$730$1,369$-30289%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$620-$13,31826.7%1.6mo$-15,860 (vs do-nothing $-8,520)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10823d20 Nov 2026$0.9410/10$940$1,226$-44589%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$561-$11,10822.2%1.3mo$-13,650 (vs do-nothing $-6,310)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10516d13 Nov 2026$0.8310/10$830$1,556$-11588%hist 86%24%hist 23%89%+$677-$14,21828.5%1.7mo$-16,760 (vs do-nothing $-9,420)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1029d6 Nov 2026$0.6310/10$630$2,100$42988%hist 86%24%hist 23%89%+$897-$17,41834.9%2.1mo$-19,960 (vs do-nothing $-12,620)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10723d20 Nov 2026$1.0510/10$1,050$1,370$-30188%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$596-$11,99824.0%1.4mo$-14,540 (vs do-nothing $-7,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10416d13 Nov 2026$0.9410/10$940$1,762$9287%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$730-$15,10830.2%1.8mo$-17,650 (vs do-nothing $-10,310)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10623d20 Nov 2026$1.1610/10$1,160$1,513$-15886%hist 86%28%hist 23%88%+$615-$12,88825.8%1.5mo$-15,430 (vs do-nothing $-8,090)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1019d6 Nov 2026$0.7410/10$740$2,467$79686%hist 86%28%hist 23%88%+$982-$18,30836.7%2.2mo$-20,850 (vs do-nothing $-13,510)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10316d13 Nov 2026$1.0710/10$1,070$2,006$33585%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$793-$15,97832.0%1.9mo$-18,520 (vs do-nothing $-11,180)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10523d20 Nov 2026$1.3010/10$1,300$1,696$2585%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$656-$13,74827.5%1.6mo$-16,290 (vs do-nothing $-8,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1009d6 Nov 2026$0.8910/10$890$2,967$1,29684%hist 86%33%hist 30%86%+$1,152-$19,15838.4%2.3mo$-21,700 (vs do-nothing $-14,360)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10423d20 Nov 2026$1.4410/10$1,440$1,878$20784%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$679-$14,60829.2%1.8mo$-17,150 (vs do-nothing $-9,810)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10216d13 Nov 2026$1.2110/10$1,210$2,269$59883%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$845-$16,83833.7%2.0mo$-19,380 (vs do-nothing $-12,040)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10323d20 Nov 2026$1.6010/10$1,600$2,087$41682%hist 86%38%hist 30%85%+$706-$15,44830.9%1.9mo$-17,990 (vs do-nothing $-10,650)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$999d6 Nov 2026$1.0410/10$1,040$3,467$1,79682%hist 86%38%hist 30%84%+$1,219-$20,00840.1%2.4mo$-22,550 (vs do-nothing $-15,210)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10116d13 Nov 2026$1.3810/10$1,380$2,588$91782%hist 86%38%hist 30%84%+$919-$17,66835.4%2.1mo$-20,210 (vs do-nothing $-12,870)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10223d20 Nov 2026$1.7810/10$1,780$2,322$65180%hist 86%42%hist 40%83%+$737-$16,26832.6%1.9mo$-18,810 (vs do-nothing $-11,470)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10016d13 Nov 2026$1.5610/10$1,560$2,925$1,25479%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$971-$18,48837.0%2.2mo$-21,030 (vs do-nothing $-13,690)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$989d6 Nov 2026$1.2210/10$1,220$4,067$2,39679%hist 83%43%hist 40%82%+$1,313-$20,82841.7%2.5mo$-23,370 (vs do-nothing $-16,030)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10123d20 Nov 2026$1.9810/10$1,980$2,583$91278%hist 83%45%hist 40%82%+$769-$17,06834.2%2.0mo$-19,610 (vs do-nothing $-12,270)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9916d13 Nov 2026$1.7710/10$1,770$3,319$1,64877%hist 83%47%hist 40%81%+$1,036-$19,27838.6%2.3mo$-21,820 (vs do-nothing $-14,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10023d20 Nov 2026$2.1910/10$2,190$2,857$1,18676%hist 83%50%hist 40%81%+$787-$17,85835.8%2.1mo$-20,400 (vs do-nothing $-13,060)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9816d13 Nov 2026$2.0010/10$2,000$3,750$2,07975%hist 83%53%hist 44%80%+$1,089-$20,04840.1%2.4mo$-22,590 (vs do-nothing $-15,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9923d20 Nov 2026$2.4310/10$2,430$3,170$1,49974%hist 83%54%hist 44%79%+$815-$18,61837.3%2.2mo$-21,160 (vs do-nothing $-13,820)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9823d20 Nov 2026$2.7010/10$2,700$3,522$1,85172%hist 83%59%hist 44%78%+$851-$19,34838.7%2.3mo$-21,890 (vs do-nothing $-14,550)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9723d20 Nov 2026$2.9910/10$2,990$3,900$2,22970%hist 66%64%hist 54%76%+$879-$20,05840.2%2.4mo$-22,600 (vs do-nothing $-15,260)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-29 03:13