FORTRESS FIGHT: IBIT @ $35.59

BE SS: $70.58 | CC-SS: $35.59 | 50 contracts (5,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IBITBBC @ $35.59 UNDERWATER $34.99 (49.6% below BE SS)

50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $70.58 | CC-SS: $35.59 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $75 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $4.466/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$22,328	(ND $4.47 + SW $0) x 5000
Normal income ref	$10,287/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$29,275	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,143/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$10,287/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $22,328

ML VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $22,328

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $35.59 (probe: $35.5C 14d) still earns $10,287/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 25 (live) · RSI 38 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 58 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $39.46 (+11%) · daily UBB $37.43 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)

SETUPOversold with mixed daily momentum: lean 🎯, keep DTE short, watch the daily band. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $35.59 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 50 × $36 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $36)

57%

Touch odds

90%

Per cycle

$6,000

Income / mo

$6,429

🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $37 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $37)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$1,000

Income / mo

$4,286

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 913 simulated challenges: the $37 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $37 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$37	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.40/sh	+$2,001 cycle +$3,001 [+$1,784…+$2,322] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$37	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.20/sh	+$988 cycle +$1,988 [+$679…+$1,271] · 98% credit	70% surv 58%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$39	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$744 cycle +$1,744 [+$128…+$1,056] · 81% credit	78% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$39	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.01/sh	+$30 cycle +$1,030 [-$716…+$287] · 36% credit	81% surv 76%
SS $71 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$40	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.11/sh	-$534 cycle +$466 [-$1,379…-$335] · 14% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $1,000 debit $534 (53% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$466 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $2,796/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $39.50 7 Aug 2026 (21d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $39.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$800

Income / mo

$1,143

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.17 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 578 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 21, at $40 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$40	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.26/sh	+$1,291 cycle +$2,091 [+$1,123…+$1,945] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$40	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$231 cycle +$1,031 [-$52…+$770] · 71% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$40	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$231 cycle +$1,031 [-$52…+$770] · 71% credit	69% surv 56%
SS $71 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$40	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.11/sh	-$562 cycle +$238 [-$899…-$172] · 21% credit	72% surv 62%
budget: banked $800 debit $562 (70% used ≈ 2.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$238 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $8,798/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (16 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.182 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $29,325

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$36.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.32	38/50	$5,211	$5,229	71%	77%	+$1,487	-$0	0.0%	$30,503 (vs do-nothing +$1,178)
$36.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$0.59	41/50	$5,184	$5,196	66%	74%	+$1,198	-$0	0.0%	$31,703 (vs do-nothing +$2,378)
$36.50	21d	7 Aug 2026	$0.82	44/50	$5,154	$5,163	63%	73%	+$1,086	-$0	0.0%	$32,889 (vs do-nothing +$3,564)
$36.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$1.04	47/50	$5,237	$5,241	62%	72%	+$1,167	-$0	0.0%	$34,166 (vs do-nothing +$4,841)
$36	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.50	25/50	$5,357	$5,393	60%	71%	+$1,131	-$0	0.0%	$30,550 (vs do-nothing +$1,225)
$36	14d	31 Jul 2026	$0.80	31/50	$5,314	$5,341	58%	70%	+$993	-$0	0.0%	$31,774 (vs do-nothing +$2,449)
$36	21d	7 Aug 2026	$1.04	35/50	$5,200	$5,221	57%	70%	+$919	-$0	0.0%	$32,930 (vs do-nothing +$3,605)
$36	28d	14 Aug 2026	$1.20	41/50	$5,271	$5,284	57%	69%	+$789	-$0	0.0%	$34,204 (vs do-nothing +$4,879)
$35.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$1.46	33/50	$5,162	$5,186	51%	68%	+$683	-$0	0.0%	$33,813 (vs do-nothing +$4,488)
$35.50	21d	7 Aug 2026	$1.30	28/50	$5,200	$5,231	51%	67%	+$771	-$0	0.0%	$32,685 (vs do-nothing +$3,360)
$35.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.05	23/50	$5,175	$5,214	50%	66%	+$723	-$0	0.0%	$31,510 (vs do-nothing +$2,185)
$35.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.74	17/50	$5,391	$5,439	49%	66%	+$778	-$0	0.0%	$30,413 (vs do-nothing +$1,088)
$35	28d	14 Aug 2026	$1.77	28/50	$5,310	$5,341	46%	65%	+$667	-$0	0.0%	$32,601 (vs do-nothing +$3,276)

Show 3 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$35	21d	7 Aug 2026	$1.52	24/50	$5,211	$5,249	44%	65%	+$511	-$0	0.0%	$31,533 (vs do-nothing +$2,208)
$35	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.28	19/50	$5,211	$5,256	42%	63%	+$479	-$0	0.0%	$30,617 (vs do-nothing +$1,292)
$35	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.05	12/50	$5,400	$5,454	38%	62%	+$544	-$0	0.0%	$29,865 (vs do-nothing +$540)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 21:37