FORTRESS FIGHT: IBIT @ $36.83

BE SS: $70.58 | CC-SS: $36.83 | 50 contracts (5,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IBITBBC @ $36.83 UNDERWATER $33.75 (47.8% below BE SS)

50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $70.58 | CC-SS: $36.83 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $75 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $4.466/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$22,328	(ND $4.47 + SW $0) x 5000
Normal income ref	$9,971/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$30,050	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,985/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$9,971/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $22,328

ML VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $22,328

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $36.83 (probe: $37C 17d) still earns $9,971/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-17; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-17

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$612

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
50x $37.5C 24 Jul 2026	U6241782	$0.12	$612	2026-07-18

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 33 (live) · RSI 40 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 81 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $47.08 (+28%) · daily UBB $37.74 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $36.83 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 50 × $38.50 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $38.50)

71%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$3,550

Income / mo

$4,438

🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $38 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $38)

83%

Touch odds

34%

Per cycle

$850

Income / mo

$8,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 652 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $38 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$38	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.47/sh	+$2,335 cycle +$3,185 [+$1,996…+$2,574] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$39	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.16/sh	+$794 cycle +$1,644 [+$185…+$932] · 81% credit	74% surv 64%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$40	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.16/sh	+$779 cycle +$1,629 [-$115…+$917] · 72% credit	80% surv 75%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$41	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$155 cycle +$1,005 [-$852…+$262] · 36% credit	83% surv 79%
SS $71 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$41	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.07/sh	-$373 cycle +$477 [-$1,490…-$304] · 9% credit	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $850 debit $373 (44% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$477 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $2,601/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $40.50 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $40.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$850

Income / mo

$1,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$40	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.35/sh	+$1,730 cycle +$2,580 [+$1,662…+$2,443] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$41	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.25/sh	+$1,270 cycle +$2,120 [+$1,134…+$1,877] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$41	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.02/sh	+$76 cycle +$926 [-$192…+$639] · 59% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$41	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.02/sh	+$76 cycle +$926 [-$192…+$639] · 59% credit	71% surv 59%
SS $71 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.184 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $30,100

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$38.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.10	50/50	$5,000	$5,000	90%	92%	+$3,457	-$0	0.0%	$30,550 (vs do-nothing +$450)
$38	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.17	30/50	$5,100	$5,135	83%	87%	+$3,019	-$0	0.0%	$30,580 (vs do-nothing +$480)
$37.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.29	18/50	$5,220	$5,276	72%	79%	+$2,412	-$0	0.0%	$30,604 (vs do-nothing +$504)
$38	10d	31 Jul 2026	$0.45	37/50	$4,995	$5,018	72%	78%	+$1,759	-$0	0.0%	$31,728 (vs do-nothing +$1,628)
$38	17d	7 Aug 2026	$0.68	42/50	$5,040	$5,054	67%	75%	+$1,427	-$0	0.0%	$32,914 (vs do-nothing +$2,814)
$38	24d	14 Aug 2026	$0.90	45/50	$5,062	$5,071	65%	74%	+$1,427	-$0	0.0%	$34,105 (vs do-nothing +$4,005)
$37.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$0.62	27/50	$5,022	$5,063	63%	73%	+$1,430	-$0	0.0%	$31,747 (vs do-nothing +$1,647)
$37.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$0.88	33/50	$5,125	$5,155	61%	72%	+$1,231	-$0	0.0%	$32,971 (vs do-nothing +$2,871)
$37.50	24d	14 Aug 2026	$1.10	37/50	$5,088	$5,110	60%	72%	+$1,211	-$0	0.0%	$34,133 (vs do-nothing +$4,033)
$37	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.48	11/50	$5,280	$5,349	56%	71%	+$1,652	-$0	0.0%	$30,617 (vs do-nothing +$517)
$37	10d	31 Jul 2026	$0.84	20/50	$5,040	$5,093	54%	69%	+$1,143	-$0	0.0%	$31,760 (vs do-nothing +$1,660)
$37	17d	7 Aug 2026	$1.13	26/50	$5,185	$5,227	54%	69%	+$1,105	-$0	0.0%	$33,012 (vs do-nothing +$2,912)
$37	24d	14 Aug 2026	$1.34	30/50	$5,025	$5,060	54%	69%	+$1,025	-$0	0.0%	$34,090 (vs do-nothing +$3,990)

Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$36.50	24d	14 Aug 2026	$1.61	25/50	$5,031	$5,075	48%	67%	+$951	-$0	0.0%	$33,275 (vs do-nothing +$3,175)
$36.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$1.38	21/50	$5,114	$5,165	47%	66%	+$767	-$0	0.0%	$32,284 (vs do-nothing +$2,184)
$36.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.10	16/50	$5,280	$5,340	45%	65%	+$899	-$0	0.0%	$31,316 (vs do-nothing +$1,216)
$36.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.76	7/50	$5,320	$5,396	40%	65%	+$1,100	-$0	0.0%	$30,394 (vs do-nothing +$294)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 03:37