FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $95.07

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $95.07 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-07 15:16 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $95.07 UNDERWATER $1.43 (1.5% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $95.07 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$5,675/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$8,640	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,838/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,675/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $95.07 (probe: $95C 17d) still earns $5,675/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 59 · %B 86 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $100.86 (+6%) · daily UBB $96.68 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 12 contracts at $99 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 88%, breach 12%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,838/mo); it brings $3,000/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 9 × $96.50/3d for $6,300/mo, but breach risk rises to 32% (+21pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $100/3d (93% survival, $1,800/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $96, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 12 contracts realizes $8,610 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 12 contracts. 🎯 marks the recommendation, the safest strike that still clears the income floor (50% of normal), shown first; it hands off to the 🛡 safe-yield rung when that rung buys meaningful survival for little income. 🛡 safe yield inverts the objective (survival pinned ≥90%, max income available there, all contracts); then 33%, 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $99 (primary), 88% survival, breach 12%, $3,000/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $100 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 93% (breach 12% → 7%) for $1,200/mo less (40% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

IGV spot $95.07

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
🛡 safe yield	12 × $100	10 Jul	3d	5.2%	93%	7%	$1,800	-$1,200	$0
33% normal	8 × $99	10 Jul	3d	4.1%	88%	12%	$2,000	-$1,000	$0
🎯 50% normal	12 × $99	10 Jul	3d	4.1%	88%	12%	$3,000	—	$0
100% normal	9 × $96.50	10 Jul	3d	1.5%	68%	32%	$6,300	+$3,300	$0
📅 next weekly	10 × $98	17 Jul	10d	3.1%	71%	29%	$3,150	+$150	$0

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on IGV are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 12×$99, 4.1% OTM, 88% surv

Sell 12 × $99 4.1% OTM over spot $95.07 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid)

= $300 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $99)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $99.28)

90%

EV / mo

+$1,714

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$948

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$104 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.47/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 414 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $100 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$99	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.99/sh	+$1,187 cycle +$1,487 [+$948…+$1,332] · 98% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$102	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.48/sh	+$571 cycle +$871 [+$26…+$677] · 76% credit	74% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$101	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$167 cycle +$467 [-$326…+$243] · 48% credit	74% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$103	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.09/sh	+$112 cycle +$412 [-$562…+$185] · 38% credit	77% surv 72%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.15/sh	-$176 cycle +$124 [-$935…-$120] · 12% credit	80% surv 76%
budget: banked $300 debit $176 (59% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,010/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,838/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($5,675/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,000/mo

Downside budget

✓ $99 is at/above CC-SS $95.07: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($31,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($31,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$8,610

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $99.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $96.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $98.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $98-99.28	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $99.28	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$99.00 (1.3σ)	$300	$12,906	+$4,266	+$780
+2.5%	$101.47 (2.0σ)	$-2,670	$12,434	+$3,794	+$780
+5%	$103.95 (2.8σ)	$-5,640	$11,962	+$3,322	+$780

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.07, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $8,640

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $99): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $8,640 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,520, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now)

🛡 safe yield · sell 12×$100, 5.2% OTM, 93% surv

Sell 12 × $100 5.2% OTM over spot $95.07 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.20 mid)

= $180 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,800/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $100)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $100.20)

94%

EV / mo

+$1,197

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,081

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$104 @ 77% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $1.49/sh now → $1.05 mid-life (likely $1.00–$1.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 218 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $101 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.97/sh	+$1,169 cycle +$1,349 [+$954…+$1,315] · 99% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$103	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.46/sh	+$551 cycle +$731 [+$31…+$656] · 76% credit	74% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$102	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$149 cycle +$329 [-$329…+$243] · 49% credit	74% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$104	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.08/sh	+$93 cycle +$273 [-$557…+$184] · 41% credit	77% surv 72%

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,838/mo)	-37%
vs normal income ($5,675/mo)	32% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,800/mo

Downside budget

✓ $100 is at/above CC-SS $95.07: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($31,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($31,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$8,580

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $100.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $96.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $99-100.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $100.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$100.00 (1.6σ)	$180	$13,795	+$5,155	+$1,860
+2.5%	$102.50 (2.4σ)	$-2,820	$13,318	+$4,678	+$1,860
+5%	$105.00 (3.2σ)	$-5,820	$12,841	+$4,201	+$1,860

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.07, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $8,640

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $100): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $8,640 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,520, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal · sell 8×$99, 4.1% OTM, 88% surv

Sell 8 × $99 4.1% OTM over spot $95.07 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid)

= $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $99)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $99.28)

90%

EV / mo

+$1,143

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$632

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$104 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.47/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $1.01–$2.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 413 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $100 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$99	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.99/sh	+$791 cycle +$991 [+$632…+$892] · 99% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$102	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.48/sh	+$381 cycle +$581 [-$35…+$455] · 73% credit	74% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$101	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$112 cycle +$312 [-$273…+$174] · 52% credit	74% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$103	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.09/sh	+$74 cycle +$274 [-$437…+$138] · 41% credit	77% surv 72%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.15/sh	-$117 cycle +$83 [-$681…-$65] · 15% credit	80% surv 76%
budget: banked $200 debit $117 (59% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,340/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,838/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($5,675/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,482/mo

Downside budget

✓ $99 is at/above CC-SS $95.07: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($31,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($31,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$5,740

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $98.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $98-99.28	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $99.28	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$99.00 (1.3σ)	$200	$12,646	+$4,006	+$520
+2.5%	$101.47 (2.0σ)	$-1,780	$12,174	+$3,534	+$520
+5%	$103.95 (2.8σ)	$-3,760	$11,702	+$3,062	+$520

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.07, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $8,640

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $99): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $96.50): +$840

Total Position P&L @ SS: $9,480 (+$840 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,680, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 9×$96.50, 1.5% OTM, 68% surv

Sell 9 × $96.50 1.5% OTM over spot $95.07 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.77 mid)

= $630 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,300/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $96.50)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $97.28)

75%

EV / mo

+$1,461

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

44%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$282

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$105 @ 89% POP

89% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now → $1.01 mid-life (likely $1.24–$2.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,333 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $98 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.02/sh	+$922 cycle +$1,552 [+$672…+$932] · 99% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$99	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.51/sh	+$463 cycle +$1,093 [-$68…+$356] · 70% credit	74% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$98	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.18/sh	+$158 cycle +$788 [-$315…+$61] · 38% credit	74% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$100	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.13/sh	+$117 cycle +$747 [-$521…-$8] · 24% credit	77% surv 72%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$105	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.67/sh	-$606 cycle +$24 [-$1,497…-$781]	89% surv 89%
budget: banked $630 debit $606 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $575/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,300/mo
vs 50% target ($2,838/mo)	+122%
vs normal income ($5,675/mo)	111% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,412/mo

Downside budget

✓ $96.50 is at/above CC-SS $95.07: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($31,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($31,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$6,413

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $97.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $96.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $96-97.28	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $97.28	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$96.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$630	$11,343	+$2,703	-$1,260
+2.5%	$98.91 (1.2σ)	$-1,541	$10,883	+$2,243	-$1,260
+5%	$101.33 (2.0σ)	$-3,713	$10,423	+$1,783	-$1,260

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.07, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $8,640

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $96.50): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (3 × $96.50): +$630

Total Position P&L @ SS: $9,270 (+$630 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,160 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,890, the opportunity cost of earning $6,300/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.841 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $11,160

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$99	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.25	12/12	$3,000	$3,000	88%	90%	+$1,714	-$0	0.0%	$8,940 (vs do-nothing $-2,220)
$98.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.30	10/12	$3,000	$3,741	85%	88%	+$1,471	-$0	0.0%	$9,360 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$98	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.35	9/12	$3,150	$4,262	82%	85%	+$1,216	-$0	0.0%	$9,585 (vs do-nothing $-1,575)
$97.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.45	7/12	$3,150	$5,003	78%	82%	+$1,072	-$0	0.0%	$10,005 (vs do-nothing $-1,155)
$99	10d	17 Jul 2026	$0.80	12/12	$2,880	$2,880	77%	81%	+$855	-$0	0.0%	$9,600 (vs do-nothing $-1,560)
$97	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.40	8/12	$3,200	$4,682	73%	78%	$-25	-$0	0.0%	$9,800 (vs do-nothing $-1,360)
$98	10d	17 Jul 2026	$1.05	10/12	$3,150	$3,891	71%	77%	+$751	-$0	0.0%	$10,110 (vs do-nothing $-1,050)
$96.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.70	5/12	$3,500	$6,094	68%	75%	+$811	-$0	0.0%	$10,460 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$98	17d	24 Jul 2026	$1.65	10/12	$2,912	$3,653	67%	75%	+$534	-$0	0.0%	$10,710 (vs do-nothing $-450)
$97	10d	17 Jul 2026	$1.35	8/12	$3,240	$4,722	64%	73%	+$582	-$0	0.0%	$10,560 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$97.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$1.75	10/12	$3,088	$3,829	64%	73%	+$423	-$0	0.0%	$10,810 (vs do-nothing $-350)
$96	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.90	4/12	$3,600	$6,565	62%	72%	+$783	-$0	0.0%	$10,680 (vs do-nothing $-480)
$96.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$2.10	8/12	$2,965	$4,447	59%	71%	+$309	-$0	0.0%	$11,160 (vs do-nothing +$0)

Show 16 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$96	10d	17 Jul 2026	$1.75	6/12	$3,150	$5,374	58%	70%	+$462	-$0	0.0%	$10,950 (vs do-nothing $-210)
$96	17d	24 Jul 2026	$2.30	7/12	$2,841	$4,694	57%	69%	+$259	-$0	0.0%	$11,300 (vs do-nothing +$140)
$95.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.10	3/12	$3,300	$6,635	56%	70%	+$583	-$0	0.0%	$10,860 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$95.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$2.55	7/12	$3,150	$5,003	54%	68%	+$290	-$0	0.0%	$11,475 (vs do-nothing +$315)
$95	17d	24 Jul 2026	$2.75	6/12	$2,912	$5,135	51%	67%	+$204	-$0	0.0%	$11,508 (vs do-nothing +$348)
$95	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.25	5/12	$3,375	$5,969	51%	66%	+$431	-$0	0.0%	$11,200 (vs do-nothing +$40)
$95	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.30	3/12	$3,900	$7,235	50%	66%	+$470	-$0	0.0%	$10,899 (vs do-nothing $-261)
$94.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.00	6/12	$3,176	$5,400	49%	65%	+$195	-$0	0.0%	$11,358 (vs do-nothing +$198)
$94.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.35	5/12	$3,525	$6,119	47%	65%	+$182	-$0	0.0%	$11,000 (vs do-nothing $-160)
$94	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.30	5/12	$2,912	$5,506	46%	64%	+$184	-$0	0.0%	$11,225 (vs do-nothing +$65)
$94.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.60	2/12	$3,200	$6,906	44%	65%	+$365	-$0	0.0%	$10,946 (vs do-nothing $-214)
$94	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.75	4/12	$3,300	$6,265	44%	63%	+$281	-$0	0.0%	$10,992 (vs do-nothing $-168)
$93.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	5/12	$3,088	$5,682	43%	63%	+$103	-$0	0.0%	$11,075 (vs do-nothing $-85)
$93.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.00	4/12	$3,600	$6,565	40%	62%	+$211	-$0	0.0%	$10,892 (vs do-nothing $-268)
$94	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.85	2/12	$3,700	$7,406	38%	62%	+$245	-$0	0.0%	$10,896 (vs do-nothing $-264)
$93.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.10	2/12	$4,200	$7,906	32%	59%	+$57	-$0	0.0%	$10,846 (vs do-nothing $-314)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 15:16