FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $95.65

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $95.65 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-07 21:39 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $95.65 UNDERWATER $0.85 (0.9% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $95.65 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$6,035/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$9,840	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,018/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,035/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $95.65 (probe: $95.5C 17d) still earns $6,035/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 79 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 59 · %B 90 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.07 (+6%) · daily UBB $96.89 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 11 contracts at $99 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 84%, breach 16%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,018/mo); it brings $3,300/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 11 × $97.50/3d for $6,600/mo, but breach risk rises to 29% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $103/10d (90% survival, $720/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $96, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 11 contracts realizes $8,938 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 12 contracts. 🎯 marks the recommendation, the safest strike that still clears the income floor (50% of normal), shown first; it hands off to the 🛡 safe-yield rung when that rung buys meaningful survival for little income. 🛡 safe yield inverts the objective (survival pinned ≥90%, max income available there, all contracts); then 33%, 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 11 × $99 (primary), 84% survival, breach 16%, $3,300/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $103 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 90% (breach 16% → 10%) for $2,580/mo less (78% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

IGV spot $95.65

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
🛡 safe yield	12 × $103	17 Jul	10d	7.7%	90%	10%	$720	-$2,580	$0
33% normal	7 × $99	10 Jul	3d	3.5%	84%	16%	$2,100	-$1,200	$0
🎯 50% normal	11 × $99	10 Jul	3d	3.5%	84%	16%	$3,300	—	$0
100% normal	11 × $97.50	10 Jul	3d	1.9%	71%	29%	$6,600	+$3,300	$0
📅 next weekly	12 × $99	17 Jul	10d	3.5%	73%	27%	$3,420	+$120	$0

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on IGV are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 11×$99, 3.5% OTM, 84% surv

Sell 11 × $99 3.5% OTM over spot $95.65 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.38 mid)

= $330 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,300/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $99)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $99.38)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,231

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,120

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$103 @ 78% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.86/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 641 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $100 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$99	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.65/sh	+$715 cycle +$1,045 [+$256…+$844] · 85% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$101	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.44/sh	+$487 cycle +$817 [-$173…+$587] · 67% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$116 cycle +$446 [-$490…+$203] · 40% credit	71% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$103	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.00/sh	+$1 cycle +$331 [-$777…+$69] · 30% credit	77% surv 71%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$103	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.19/sh	-$208 cycle +$122 [-$1,048…-$148] · 12% credit	78% surv 74%
budget: banked $330 debit $208 (63% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$122 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,329/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,300/mo
vs 50% target ($3,018/mo)	+9%
vs normal income ($6,035/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,741/mo

Downside budget

✓ $99 is at/above CC-SS $95.65: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($31,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($31,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$8,938

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $99.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $96.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $98.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $98-99.38	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $99.38	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$99.00 (1.1σ)	$330	$13,571	+$3,731	+$330
+2.5%	$101.47 (1.9σ)	$-2,392	$13,114	+$3,274	+$330
+5%	$103.95 (2.6σ)	$-5,115	$12,656	+$2,816	+$330

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.65, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $9,840

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $99): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $96.50): +$250

Total Position P&L @ SS: $10,090 (+$250 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,840 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,750, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now)

🛡 safe yield · sell 12×$103, 7.7% OTM, 90% surv

Sell 12 × $103 7.7% OTM over spot $95.65 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.38 mid)

= $240 credit for the 10d cycle → $720/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $103)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $103.38)

91%

EV / mo

+$189

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,224

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$104 @ 69% POP

57% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.90/sh now → $2.05 mid-life (likely $1.70–$2.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 437 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $104 (overshoots $1.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$103	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.35/sh	+$426 cycle +$666 [+$194…+$849] · 91% credit	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$103	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.15/sh	+$183 cycle +$423 [-$92…+$589] · 67% credit	67% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$103	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.15/sh	+$183 cycle +$423 [-$92…+$589] · 67% credit	67% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.05/sh	-$60 cycle +$180 [-$373…+$307] · 43% credit	69% surv 57%
budget: banked $240 debit $60 (25% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$180 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,010/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$720/mo
vs 50% target ($3,018/mo)	-76%
vs normal income ($6,035/mo)	12% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$720/mo

Downside budget

✓ $103 is at/above CC-SS $95.65: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($31,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($31,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$9,630

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $103.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $96.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $101.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $102-103.38	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $103.38	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$103.00 (1.3σ)	$240	$17,542	+$7,702	+$5,040
+2.5%	$105.57 (1.7σ)	$-2,850	$17,066	+$7,226	+$5,040
+5%	$108.15 (2.2σ)	$-5,940	$16,590	+$6,750	+$5,040

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.65, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $9,840

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $103): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $9,840 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,840 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,000, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal · sell 7×$99, 3.5% OTM, 84% surv

Sell 7 × $99 3.5% OTM over spot $95.65 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.38 mid)

= $210 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,100/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $99)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $99.38)

86%

EV / mo

+$783

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$713

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$103 @ 78% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.86/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.35–$2.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 625 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $100 (overshoots $1.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (7 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$99	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.65/sh	+$455 cycle +$665 [+$137…+$532] · 83% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$101	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.44/sh	+$310 cycle +$520 [-$153…+$368] · 64% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$74 cycle +$284 [-$351…+$124] · 39% credit	71% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$103	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.00/sh	+$0 cycle +$210 [-$547…+$39] · 29% credit	77% surv 71%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$103	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.19/sh	-$132 cycle +$78 [-$720…-$106] · 11% credit	78% surv 74%
budget: banked $210 debit $132 (63% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$78 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $1,482/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,100/mo
vs 50% target ($3,018/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($6,035/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,306/mo

Downside budget

✓ $99 is at/above CC-SS $95.65: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($31,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($31,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (7 ct)	$5,688

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $98.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $98-99.38	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $99.38	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$99.00 (1.1σ)	$210	$13,451	+$3,611	+$210
+2.5%	$101.47 (1.9σ)	$-1,522	$12,994	+$3,154	+$210
+5%	$103.95 (2.6σ)	$-3,255	$12,536	+$2,696	+$210

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.65, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $9,840

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (7 × $99): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $96.50): +$1,250

Total Position P&L @ SS: $11,090 (+$1,250 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,840 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,750, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 11×$97.50, 1.9% OTM, 71% surv

Sell 11 × $97.50 1.9% OTM over spot $95.65 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.70 mid)

= $660 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $97.50)

71%

Breach risk

29%

POP (stays ≤ $98.20)

77%

EV / mo

+$1,428

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

41%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$768

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$103 @ 81% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.55–$2.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,229 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $99 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.67/sh	+$742 cycle +$1,402 [+$149…+$722] · 81% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$99	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.62/sh	+$682 cycle +$1,342 [-$119…+$595] · 70% credit	71% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$99	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$144 cycle +$804 [-$619…+$49] · 27% credit	71% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$101	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.03/sh	+$31 cycle +$691 [-$935…-$127] · 20% credit	77% surv 71%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$103	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.45/sh	-$491 cycle +$169 [-$1,636…-$695] · 0% credit	81% surv 78%
budget: banked $660 debit $491 (74% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$169 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $1,757/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,600/mo
vs 50% target ($3,018/mo)	+119%
vs normal income ($6,035/mo)	109% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,041/mo

Downside budget

✓ $97.50 is at/above CC-SS $95.65: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($31,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($31,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$8,910

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $98.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $96.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $97-98.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $98.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$97.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$660	$12,528	+$2,688	-$990
+2.5%	$99.94 (1.4σ)	$-2,021	$12,078	+$2,238	-$990
+5%	$102.38 (2.1σ)	$-4,702	$11,627	+$1,787	-$990

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $95.65, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $9,840

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $97.50): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $96.50): +$250

Total Position P&L @ SS: $10,090 (+$250 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,840 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,750, the opportunity cost of earning $6,600/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.846 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $12,840

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$99	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.30	11/12	$3,300	$3,741	84%	86%	+$1,231	-$0	0.0%	$10,420 (vs do-nothing $-2,420)
$98.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.40	8/12	$3,200	$4,965	80%	84%	+$1,120	-$0	0.0%	$11,160 (vs do-nothing $-1,680)
$98	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.50	7/12	$3,500	$5,706	76%	81%	+$1,030	-$0	0.0%	$11,440 (vs do-nothing $-1,400)
$99	10d	17 Jul 2026	$0.95	11/12	$3,135	$3,576	73%	79%	+$782	-$0	0.0%	$11,135 (vs do-nothing $-1,705)
$97.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.60	6/12	$3,600	$6,247	71%	77%	+$779	-$0	0.0%	$11,700 (vs do-nothing $-1,140)
$99.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$1.45	12/12	$3,071	$3,071	71%	77%	+$761	-$0	0.0%	$11,580 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$99	17d	24 Jul 2026	$1.60	11/12	$3,106	$3,547	69%	76%	+$725	-$0	0.0%	$11,850 (vs do-nothing $-990)
$98	10d	17 Jul 2026	$1.30	8/12	$3,120	$4,885	67%	75%	+$738	-$0	0.0%	$11,880 (vs do-nothing $-960)
$98.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$1.70	11/12	$3,300	$3,741	66%	75%	+$629	-$0	0.0%	$11,960 (vs do-nothing $-880)
$97	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.80	4/12	$3,200	$6,729	66%	75%	+$739	-$0	0.0%	$12,160 (vs do-nothing $-680)
$98	17d	24 Jul 2026	$1.90	9/12	$3,018	$4,341	64%	74%	+$572	-$0	0.0%	$12,300 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$97.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$2.05	9/12	$3,256	$4,579	61%	73%	+$527	-$0	0.0%	$12,435 (vs do-nothing $-405)
$96.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.95	4/12	$3,800	$7,329	60%	72%	+$636	-$0	0.0%	$12,220 (vs do-nothing $-620)

Show 17 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$97	10d	17 Jul 2026	$1.60	7/12	$3,360	$5,566	60%	71%	+$532	-$0	0.0%	$12,210 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$97	17d	24 Jul 2026	$2.30	8/12	$3,247	$5,012	59%	71%	+$548	-$0	0.0%	$12,680 (vs do-nothing $-160)
$96.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$2.50	7/12	$3,088	$5,294	56%	70%	+$467	-$0	0.0%	$12,840 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$96	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.00	4/12	$4,000	$7,529	55%	68%	+$3	-$0	0.0%	$12,240 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$96	10d	17 Jul 2026	$1.90	6/12	$3,420	$6,067	54%	68%	+$214	-$0	0.0%	$12,480 (vs do-nothing $-360)
$96	17d	24 Jul 2026	$2.70	7/12	$3,335	$5,541	53%	69%	+$435	-$0	0.0%	$12,980 (vs do-nothing +$140)
$95.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.00	6/12	$3,176	$5,824	51%	68%	+$434	-$0	0.0%	$13,050 (vs do-nothing +$210)
$95.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.25	3/12	$3,750	$7,721	49%	67%	+$25	-$0	0.0%	$12,420 (vs do-nothing $-420)
$95	17d	24 Jul 2026	$2.90	6/12	$3,071	$5,718	48%	66%	+$53	-$0	0.0%	$12,690 (vs do-nothing $-150)
$95	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.60	4/12	$3,120	$6,649	47%	65%	+$362	-$0	0.0%	$12,620 (vs do-nothing $-220)
$94.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	5/12	$3,088	$6,176	45%	65%	+$331	-$0	0.0%	$12,765 (vs do-nothing $-75)
$94.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.70	4/12	$3,240	$6,769	43%	64%	+$134	-$0	0.0%	$12,460 (vs do-nothing $-380)
$95	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.65	2/12	$3,300	$7,712	43%	65%	+$264	-$0	0.0%	$12,540 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$94	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	5/12	$3,353	$6,441	43%	64%	+$338	-$0	0.0%	$12,665 (vs do-nothing $-175)
$94	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.10	4/12	$3,720	$7,249	40%	63%	+$243	-$0	0.0%	$12,420 (vs do-nothing $-420)
$94.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.85	2/12	$3,700	$8,112	38%	62%	+$44	-$0	0.0%	$12,480 (vs do-nothing $-360)
$94	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.20	2/12	$4,400	$8,812	32%	60%	+$61	-$0	0.0%	$12,450 (vs do-nothing $-390)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 21:39