FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $93.82

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $87.07 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $93.82 UNDERWATER $2.68 (2.8% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $87.07 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$6,429/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$6,780	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,214/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$6,429/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $87.07 (probe: $92C 14d) still earns $4,577/mo (71% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,164

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $100C 24 Jul 2026	U10001299	$0.97	$1,164	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 72 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 56 · %B 71 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.07 (+8%) · daily UBB $97.34 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $87.07 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $96 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $96)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$1,080

Income / mo

$4,629

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.15/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $1.83–$2.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,424 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $97 (overshoots $1.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.71/sh	+$855 cycle +$1,935 [+$454…+$783] · 96% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$98	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.79/sh	+$952 cycle +$2,032 [+$300…+$818] · 88% credit	72% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$97	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.18/sh	+$214 cycle +$1,294 [-$305…+$92] · 35% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$100	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.16/sh	+$190 cycle +$1,270 [-$592…-$4] · 25% credit	77% surv 70%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$102	7 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.77/sh	-$923 cycle +$157 [-$1,890…-$1,189]	83% surv 81%
budget: banked $1,080 debit $923 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$157 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,507/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $97.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $97.50)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$660

Income / mo

$2,829

Buyback gross: $2.19/sh now → $1.55 mid-life (likely $1.54–$2.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 881 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $98 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.68/sh	+$818 cycle +$1,478 [+$491…+$948] · 97% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$100	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.38/sh	+$458 cycle +$1,118 [-$166…+$545] · 64% credit	72% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$99	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.15/sh	+$177 cycle +$837 [-$276…+$243] · 45% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$102	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.12/sh	+$148 cycle +$808 [-$540…+$217] · 37% credit	77% surv 70%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.48/sh	-$581 cycle +$79 [-$1,405…-$532] · 8% credit	81% surv 78%
budget: banked $660 debit $581 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$79 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,593/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $99.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $99.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$300

Income / mo

$1,286

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.64/sh	+$767 cycle +$1,067 [+$534…+$1,032] · 96% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$103	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.28/sh	+$333 cycle +$633 [-$126…+$618] · 65% credit	74% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$101	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.10/sh	+$124 cycle +$424 [-$202…+$354] · 54% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$104	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$89 cycle +$389 [-$418…+$355] · 45% credit	77% surv 70%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (37 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 37 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.841 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $8,520

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$97	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.70	11/12	$3,300	$3,611	77%	82%	+$1,366	-$0	0.0%	$7,695 (vs do-nothing $-825)
$96.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.80	10/12	$3,429	$4,050	73%	79%	+$1,134	-$0	0.0%	$7,870 (vs do-nothing $-650)
$96	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.90	9/12	$3,471	$4,404	70%	78%	+$1,036	-$0	0.0%	$8,025 (vs do-nothing $-495)
$97	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.25	12/12	$3,214	$3,214	70%	77%	+$666	-$0	0.0%	$8,280 (vs do-nothing $-240)
$96.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.45	11/12	$3,418	$3,729	67%	75%	+$737	-$0	0.0%	$8,520 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$95.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.10	7/12	$3,300	$4,854	66%	75%	+$958	-$0	0.0%	$8,275 (vs do-nothing $-245)
$96	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.60	10/12	$3,429	$4,050	65%	74%	+$777	-$0	0.0%	$8,670 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$96	21d	7 Aug 2026	$2.10	11/12	$3,300	$3,611	62%	73%	+$543	-$0	0.0%	$9,235 (vs do-nothing +$715)
$95	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.30	6/12	$3,343	$5,207	62%	73%	+$875	-$0	0.0%	$8,430 (vs do-nothing $-90)
$95.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.80	9/12	$3,471	$4,404	61%	72%	+$617	-$0	0.0%	$8,835 (vs do-nothing +$315)
$96	28d	14 Aug 2026	$2.55	12/12	$3,279	$3,279	61%	73%	+$583	-$0	0.0%	$9,840 (vs do-nothing +$1,320)
$95.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$2.70	12/12	$3,471	$3,471	59%	71%	+$516	-$0	0.0%	$10,020 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$95	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.05	8/12	$3,514	$4,757	59%	71%	+$638	-$0	0.0%	$9,000 (vs do-nothing +$480)

Show 24 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$95	21d	7 Aug 2026	$2.55	9/12	$3,279	$4,211	58%	70%	+$510	-$0	0.0%	$9,510 (vs do-nothing +$990)
$94.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.50	5/12	$3,214	$5,389	57%	71%	+$720	-$0	0.0%	$8,545 (vs do-nothing +$25)
$95	28d	14 Aug 2026	$2.80	11/12	$3,300	$3,611	57%	70%	+$338	-$0	0.0%	$10,005 (vs do-nothing +$1,485)
$94.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.25	7/12	$3,375	$4,929	56%	70%	+$591	-$0	0.0%	$9,080 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$94.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$3.40	9/12	$3,279	$4,211	55%	69%	+$636	-$0	0.0%	$10,275 (vs do-nothing +$1,755)
$94	28d	14 Aug 2026	$3.30	10/12	$3,536	$4,157	53%	68%	+$342	-$0	0.0%	$10,370 (vs do-nothing +$1,850)
$94	21d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	8/12	$3,429	$4,671	53%	68%	+$443	-$0	0.0%	$9,760 (vs do-nothing +$1,240)
$94	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.75	5/12	$3,750	$5,925	53%	69%	+$741	-$0	0.0%	$8,670 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$94	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.50	6/12	$3,214	$5,079	52%	68%	+$477	-$0	0.0%	$9,150 (vs do-nothing +$630)
$93.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$3.70	9/12	$3,568	$4,500	51%	67%	+$449	-$0	0.0%	$10,545 (vs do-nothing +$2,025)
$93.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.75	6/12	$3,536	$5,400	49%	67%	+$538	-$0	0.0%	$9,300 (vs do-nothing +$780)
$93	28d	14 Aug 2026	$4.00	8/12	$3,429	$4,671	48%	66%	+$428	-$0	0.0%	$10,560 (vs do-nothing +$2,040)
$93.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.00	4/12	$3,429	$5,914	48%	67%	+$505	-$0	0.0%	$8,740 (vs do-nothing +$220)
$93	21d	7 Aug 2026	$3.50	7/12	$3,500	$5,054	48%	66%	+$369	-$0	0.0%	$9,955 (vs do-nothing +$1,435)
$93	14d	31 Jul 2026	$3.00	5/12	$3,214	$5,389	46%	66%	+$432	-$0	0.0%	$9,295 (vs do-nothing +$775)
$92.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$4.10	8/12	$3,514	$4,757	46%	65%	+$274	-$0	0.0%	$10,640 (vs do-nothing +$2,120)
$92.50	21d	7 Aug 2026	$3.60	7/12	$3,600	$5,154	45%	65%	+$187	-$0	0.0%	$10,025 (vs do-nothing +$1,505)
$92	28d	14 Aug 2026	$4.60	7/12	$3,450	$5,004	44%	65%	+$396	-$0	0.0%	$10,725 (vs do-nothing +$2,205)
$93	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.20	4/12	$3,771	$6,257	43%	66%	+$499	-$0	0.0%	$8,820 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$92.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$3.30	5/12	$3,536	$5,711	43%	64%	+$450	-$0	0.0%	$9,445 (vs do-nothing +$925)
$92	21d	7 Aug 2026	$4.10	6/12	$3,514	$5,379	43%	64%	+$335	-$0	0.0%	$10,110 (vs do-nothing +$1,590)
$92	14d	31 Jul 2026	$3.60	5/12	$3,857	$6,032	40%	63%	+$369	-$0	0.0%	$9,595 (vs do-nothing +$1,075)
$92.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.60	3/12	$3,343	$6,139	39%	63%	+$452	-$0	0.0%	$8,865 (vs do-nothing +$345)
$92	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.95	3/12	$3,793	$6,589	35%	62%	+$488	-$0	0.0%	$8,970 (vs do-nothing +$450)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 01:33