FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $93.56

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $86.79 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $93.56 UNDERWATER $2.94 (3.0% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $86.79 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$6,789/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$6,780	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,394/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$6,789/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.7 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
4.7 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $86.79 (probe: $92C 14d) still earns $4,989/mo (73% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,164

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $100C 24 Jul 2026	U10001299	$0.97	$1,164	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 71 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 55 · %B 69 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.05 (+8%) · daily UBB $97.29 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $86.79 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $98 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $98)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$2,220

Income / mo

$2,379

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $97.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $97.50)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$660

Income / mo

$2,829

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.26/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 849 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $99 (overshoots $1.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.69/sh	+$833 cycle +$1,493 [+$545…+$1,022] · 99% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$100	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.55/sh	+$663 cycle +$1,323 [+$98…+$779] · 81% credit	74% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$99	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.04/sh	+$45 cycle +$705 [-$389…+$117] · 34% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$102	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.02/sh	+$28 cycle +$688 [-$648…+$105] · 30% credit	77% surv 71%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.46/sh	-$557 cycle +$103 [-$1,329…-$489] · 9% credit	83% surv 79%
budget: banked $660 debit $557 (84% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$103 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,697/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $99.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $99.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$300

Income / mo

$1,286

Buyback gross: $2.30/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 423 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $101 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.65/sh	+$778 cycle +$1,078 [+$580…+$1,096] · 98% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$102	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.50/sh	+$601 cycle +$901 [+$180…+$913] · 82% credit	74% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.19/sh	+$228 cycle +$528 [-$61…+$489] · 69% credit	70% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$103	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.16/sh	+$194 cycle +$494 [-$303…+$491] · 55% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.03/sh	-$32 cycle +$268 [-$569…+$262] · 37% credit	77% surv 71%
budget: banked $300 debit $32 (11% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$268 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,402/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (34 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.839 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $8,520

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$96.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.75	11/12	$3,536	$3,846	75%	80%	+$1,117	-$0	0.0%	$7,750 (vs do-nothing $-770)
$96	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.90	9/12	$3,471	$4,404	71%	78%	+$1,032	-$0	0.0%	$8,025 (vs do-nothing $-495)
$96.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.45	11/12	$3,418	$3,729	69%	76%	+$940	-$0	0.0%	$8,520 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$95.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.05	8/12	$3,600	$4,843	67%	76%	+$951	-$0	0.0%	$8,200 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$96	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.60	10/12	$3,429	$4,050	66%	74%	+$851	-$0	0.0%	$8,670 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$96	21d	7 Aug 2026	$2.15	12/12	$3,686	$3,686	64%	74%	+$859	-$0	0.0%	$9,360 (vs do-nothing +$840)
$95	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.25	7/12	$3,750	$5,304	63%	74%	+$943	-$0	0.0%	$8,380 (vs do-nothing $-140)
$95.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.80	9/12	$3,471	$4,404	63%	73%	+$811	-$0	0.0%	$8,835 (vs do-nothing +$315)
$95.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$2.85	12/12	$3,664	$3,664	60%	72%	+$777	-$0	0.0%	$10,200 (vs do-nothing +$1,680)
$95	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.00	8/12	$3,429	$4,671	60%	71%	+$763	-$0	0.0%	$8,960 (vs do-nothing +$440)
$94.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.45	6/12	$3,729	$5,593	59%	72%	+$841	-$0	0.0%	$8,520 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$95	21d	7 Aug 2026	$2.60	10/12	$3,714	$4,336	59%	72%	+$812	-$0	0.0%	$9,670 (vs do-nothing +$1,150)
$95	28d	14 Aug 2026	$2.90	11/12	$3,418	$3,729	58%	71%	+$537	-$0	0.0%	$10,115 (vs do-nothing +$1,595)

Show 21 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$94.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.20	8/12	$3,771	$5,014	57%	71%	+$760	-$0	0.0%	$9,120 (vs do-nothing +$600)
$94.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$3.30	10/12	$3,536	$4,157	56%	71%	+$690	-$0	0.0%	$10,370 (vs do-nothing +$1,850)
$94	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.70	5/12	$3,643	$5,818	55%	70%	+$780	-$0	0.0%	$8,645 (vs do-nothing +$125)
$94	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.40	7/12	$3,600	$5,154	54%	69%	+$636	-$0	0.0%	$9,185 (vs do-nothing +$665)
$94	21d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	8/12	$3,429	$4,671	54%	69%	+$601	-$0	0.0%	$9,760 (vs do-nothing +$1,240)
$94	28d	14 Aug 2026	$3.50	10/12	$3,750	$4,371	54%	69%	+$664	-$0	0.0%	$10,570 (vs do-nothing +$2,050)
$93.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$3.70	9/12	$3,568	$4,500	52%	68%	+$562	-$0	0.0%	$10,545 (vs do-nothing +$2,025)
$93.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.70	6/12	$3,471	$5,336	51%	68%	+$626	-$0	0.0%	$9,270 (vs do-nothing +$750)
$93.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.90	5/12	$4,071	$6,246	50%	68%	+$697	-$0	0.0%	$8,745 (vs do-nothing +$225)
$93	28d	14 Aug 2026	$4.00	8/12	$3,429	$4,671	49%	68%	+$542	-$0	0.0%	$10,560 (vs do-nothing +$2,040)
$93	21d	7 Aug 2026	$3.50	7/12	$3,500	$5,054	49%	67%	+$523	-$0	0.0%	$9,955 (vs do-nothing +$1,435)
$93	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.95	6/12	$3,793	$5,657	48%	67%	+$619	-$0	0.0%	$9,420 (vs do-nothing +$900)
$92.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$4.10	8/12	$3,514	$4,757	47%	66%	+$395	-$0	0.0%	$10,640 (vs do-nothing +$2,120)
$92.50	21d	7 Aug 2026	$3.80	7/12	$3,800	$5,354	46%	66%	+$549	-$0	0.0%	$10,165 (vs do-nothing +$1,645)
$93	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.20	4/12	$3,771	$6,257	46%	66%	+$617	-$0	0.0%	$8,820 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$92	28d	14 Aug 2026	$4.50	8/12	$3,857	$5,100	45%	66%	+$493	-$0	0.0%	$10,960 (vs do-nothing +$2,440)
$92.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$3.20	5/12	$3,429	$5,604	45%	65%	+$490	-$0	0.0%	$9,395 (vs do-nothing +$875)
$92	21d	7 Aug 2026	$4.10	6/12	$3,514	$5,379	44%	65%	+$479	-$0	0.0%	$10,110 (vs do-nothing +$1,590)
$92.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.45	4/12	$4,200	$6,686	42%	64%	+$546	-$0	0.0%	$8,920 (vs do-nothing +$400)
$92	14d	31 Jul 2026	$3.50	5/12	$3,750	$5,925	42%	64%	+$499	-$0	0.0%	$9,545 (vs do-nothing +$1,025)
$92	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.80	3/12	$3,600	$6,396	38%	63%	+$452	-$0	0.0%	$8,925 (vs do-nothing +$405)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 03:39