FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $93.03

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $87.42 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $93.03 UNDERWATER $3.47 (3.6% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $87.42 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$5,464/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$5,640	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,732/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$5,464/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.8 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
5.8 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $87.42 (probe: $91.5C 14d) still earns $3,407/mo (62% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,164

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $100C 24 Jul 2026	U10001299	$0.97	$1,164	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 69 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 64 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $100.88 (+8%) · daily UBB $97.33 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $87.42 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $97.50 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $97.50)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$1,800

Income / mo

$1,929

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $97 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $97)

81%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$360

Income / mo

$1,543

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.49/sh now → $1.76 mid-life (likely $1.79–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 837 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $98 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$98	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.48/sh	+$573 cycle +$933 [-$120…+$676] · 67% credit	68% surv 59%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$97	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$94 cycle +$454 [-$472…+$186] · 36% credit	64% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$99	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$85 cycle +$445 [-$632…+$178] · 34% credit	72% surv 64%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$100	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.13/sh	-$150 cycle +$210 [-$902…-$59] · 21% credit	74% surv 67%
budget: banked $360 debit $150 (42% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$210 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,449/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $99 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $99)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$120

Income / mo

$514

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$100	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.43/sh	+$511 cycle +$631 [-$42…+$837] · 74% credit	68% surv 59%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$99	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.03/sh	+$39 cycle +$159 [-$394…+$333] · 50% credit	64% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$101	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.01/sh	+$15 cycle +$135 [-$561…+$328] · 45% credit	72% surv 64%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (31 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.829 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $6,720

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$95	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.95	7/12	$2,850	$3,814	68%	77%	+$566	-$0	0.0%	$6,755 (vs do-nothing +$35)
$95.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.15	12/12	$2,957	$2,957	66%	74%	$-119	-$0	0.0%	$7,020 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$94.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.70	10/12	$3,000	$3,386	64%	72%	$-960	-$0	0.0%	$6,520 (vs do-nothing $-200)
$95	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.30	10/12	$2,786	$3,171	63%	73%	$-141	-$0	0.0%	$7,120 (vs do-nothing +$400)
$95	21d	7 Aug 2026	$1.80	11/12	$2,829	$3,021	61%	72%	$-15	-$0	0.0%	$7,710 (vs do-nothing +$990)
$95	28d	14 Aug 2026	$2.20	12/12	$2,829	$2,829	61%	73%	+$302	-$0	0.0%	$8,280 (vs do-nothing +$1,560)
$94.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.50	9/12	$2,893	$3,471	60%	71%	$-103	-$0	0.0%	$7,260 (vs do-nothing +$540)
$94	7d	24 Jul 2026	$0.85	8/12	$2,914	$3,686	59%	71%	$-895	-$0	0.0%	$6,680 (vs do-nothing $-40)
$94.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$2.45	11/12	$2,888	$3,080	58%	70%	+$26	-$0	0.0%	$8,425 (vs do-nothing +$1,705)
$94	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.65	8/12	$2,829	$3,600	57%	70%	$-187	-$0	0.0%	$7,320 (vs do-nothing +$600)
$94	21d	7 Aug 2026	$2.20	9/12	$2,829	$3,407	57%	69%	$-31	-$0	0.0%	$7,890 (vs do-nothing +$1,170)
$94	28d	14 Aug 2026	$2.60	10/12	$2,786	$3,171	56%	70%	+$297	-$0	0.0%	$8,420 (vs do-nothing +$1,700)
$93.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.50	5/12	$3,214	$4,564	55%	70%	+$378	-$0	0.0%	$7,020 (vs do-nothing +$300)

Show 18 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$93.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$1.85	7/12	$2,775	$3,739	54%	68%	$-199	-$0	0.0%	$7,385 (vs do-nothing +$665)
$93.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$2.85	9/12	$2,748	$3,327	54%	69%	+$255	-$0	0.0%	$8,475 (vs do-nothing +$1,755)
$93	28d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	9/12	$2,989	$3,568	52%	68%	+$257	-$0	0.0%	$8,700 (vs do-nothing +$1,980)
$93	21d	7 Aug 2026	$2.60	8/12	$2,971	$3,743	51%	68%	+$189	-$0	0.0%	$8,080 (vs do-nothing +$1,360)
$93	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.15	6/12	$2,764	$3,921	51%	67%	$-97	-$0	0.0%	$7,470 (vs do-nothing +$750)
$93	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.50	5/12	$3,214	$4,564	51%	67%	$-134	-$0	0.0%	$7,020 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$92.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$3.30	8/12	$2,829	$3,600	49%	67%	+$197	-$0	0.0%	$8,640 (vs do-nothing +$1,920)
$92.50	21d	7 Aug 2026	$2.90	7/12	$2,900	$3,864	49%	66%	$-67	-$0	0.0%	$8,120 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)
$92.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.40	6/12	$3,086	$4,243	48%	66%	$-111	-$0	0.0%	$7,620 (vs do-nothing +$900)
$92	28d	14 Aug 2026	$3.60	8/12	$3,086	$3,857	47%	65%	$-5	-$0	0.0%	$8,880 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$92	21d	7 Aug 2026	$3.10	7/12	$3,100	$4,064	47%	65%	$-144	-$0	0.0%	$8,260 (vs do-nothing +$1,540)
$92.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.55	5/12	$3,321	$4,671	46%	64%	$-595	-$0	0.0%	$7,045 (vs do-nothing +$325)
$91.50	28d	14 Aug 2026	$3.80	7/12	$2,850	$3,814	45%	64%	$-68	-$0	0.0%	$8,750 (vs do-nothing +$2,030)
$92	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.55	5/12	$2,732	$4,082	45%	64%	$-232	-$0	0.0%	$7,545 (vs do-nothing +$825)
$91.50	21d	7 Aug 2026	$3.40	6/12	$2,914	$4,071	44%	64%	$-116	-$0	0.0%	$8,220 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$91.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$2.85	5/12	$3,054	$4,404	42%	63%	$-229	-$0	0.0%	$7,695 (vs do-nothing +$975)
$92	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.75	4/12	$3,000	$4,543	42%	63%	$-632	-$0	0.0%	$7,060 (vs do-nothing +$340)
$91.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.00	4/12	$3,429	$4,971	38%	61%	$-707	-$0	0.0%	$7,160 (vs do-nothing +$440)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 21:37