FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $89.63

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $86.98 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $89.63 UNDERWATER $6.87 (7.1% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $86.98 (banked floor $86.41) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$6,120/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$2,700	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,060/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$6,120/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.2 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
5.2 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $86.98 (probe: $88C 16d) still earns $4,208/mo (69% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$543

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$86.98 → $86.41

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 25 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.11 (+13%) · daily UBB $96.74 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $86.98 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $93.50 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $93.50)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$1,920

Income / mo

$2,504

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $92.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $92.50)

83%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$300

Income / mo

$4,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.67/sh now → $1.18 mid-life (likely $1.31–$2.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 599 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $94 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$92	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.75/sh	+$897 cycle +$1,197 [+$367…+$869] · 87% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$96	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.49/sh	+$589 cycle +$889 [-$265…+$520] · 64% credit	75% surv 68%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$94	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$129 cycle +$429 [-$628…+$65] · 33% credit	71% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$97	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$57 cycle +$357 [-$932…-$28] · 22% credit	79% surv 75%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$98	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.20/sh	-$236 cycle +$64 [-$1,307…-$332] · 6% credit	82% surv 79%
budget: banked $300 debit $236 (79% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$64 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,606/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $99.50 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $99.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$480

Income / mo

$626

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (39 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.814 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,300

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$92.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.25	9/12	$3,375	$3,656	83%	85%	+$868	-$0	0.0%	$3,075 (vs do-nothing $-225)
$92	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.35	6/12	$3,150	$3,712	78%	82%	+$769	-$0	0.0%	$3,210 (vs do-nothing $-90)
$93	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.80	12/12	$3,200	$3,200	75%	79%	+$782	-$0	0.0%	$3,660 (vs do-nothing +$360)
$91.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.45	5/12	$3,375	$4,031	73%	79%	+$610	-$0	0.0%	$3,275 (vs do-nothing $-25)
$92.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.95	10/12	$3,167	$3,354	71%	78%	+$744	-$0	0.0%	$3,750 (vs do-nothing +$450)
$92	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.00	10/12	$3,333	$3,521	68%	76%	+$443	-$0	0.0%	$3,800 (vs do-nothing +$500)
$91	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.65	4/12	$3,900	$4,650	68%	76%	+$887	-$0	0.0%	$3,360 (vs do-nothing +$60)
$91.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.20	8/12	$3,200	$3,575	65%	74%	+$461	-$0	0.0%	$3,860 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$92	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.65	10/12	$3,094	$3,281	65%	74%	+$519	-$0	0.0%	$4,450 (vs do-nothing +$1,150)
$92	23d	14 Aug 2026	$2.05	12/12	$3,209	$3,209	63%	73%	+$561	-$0	0.0%	$5,160 (vs do-nothing +$1,860)
$91.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.85	9/12	$3,122	$3,403	62%	72%	+$444	-$0	0.0%	$4,515 (vs do-nothing +$1,215)
$90.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.75	3/12	$3,375	$4,219	62%	72%	+$365	-$0	0.0%	$3,375 (vs do-nothing +$75)
$91	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.40	7/12	$3,267	$3,735	61%	72%	+$448	-$0	0.0%	$3,930 (vs do-nothing +$630)

Show 26 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$91.50	23d	14 Aug 2026	$2.25	11/12	$3,228	$3,322	61%	72%	+$527	-$0	0.0%	$5,225 (vs do-nothing +$1,925)
$91	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.95	9/12	$3,291	$3,572	59%	70%	+$291	-$0	0.0%	$4,605 (vs do-nothing +$1,305)
$91	23d	14 Aug 2026	$2.50	10/12	$3,261	$3,448	59%	71%	+$537	-$0	0.0%	$5,300 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)
$90.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.60	6/12	$3,200	$3,762	58%	71%	+$381	-$0	0.0%	$3,960 (vs do-nothing +$660)
$90.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$2.15	8/12	$3,225	$3,600	56%	69%	+$249	-$0	0.0%	$4,620 (vs do-nothing +$1,320)
$90.50	23d	14 Aug 2026	$2.70	9/12	$3,170	$3,451	56%	70%	+$460	-$0	0.0%	$5,280 (vs do-nothing +$1,980)
$90	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.05	2/12	$3,150	$4,088	55%	69%	+$535	-$0	0.0%	$3,410 (vs do-nothing +$110)
$90	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.90	5/12	$3,167	$3,823	54%	68%	+$444	-$0	0.0%	$4,000 (vs do-nothing +$700)
$90	16d	7 Aug 2026	$2.45	7/12	$3,216	$3,684	54%	68%	+$319	-$0	0.0%	$4,665 (vs do-nothing +$1,365)
$90	23d	14 Aug 2026	$2.95	8/12	$3,078	$3,453	54%	68%	+$424	-$0	0.0%	$5,260 (vs do-nothing +$1,960)
$89.50	23d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	8/12	$3,235	$3,610	51%	67%	+$320	-$0	0.0%	$5,380 (vs do-nothing +$2,080)
$89.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$2.85	6/12	$3,206	$3,769	51%	67%	+$454	-$0	0.0%	$4,710 (vs do-nothing +$1,410)
$89.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.10	5/12	$3,500	$4,156	50%	67%	+$367	-$0	0.0%	$4,100 (vs do-nothing +$800)
$89.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.20	2/12	$3,600	$4,538	49%	67%	+$265	-$0	0.0%	$3,440 (vs do-nothing +$140)
$89	23d	14 Aug 2026	$3.40	7/12	$3,104	$3,573	49%	66%	+$312	-$0	0.0%	$5,330 (vs do-nothing +$2,030)
$89	16d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	6/12	$3,375	$3,938	48%	66%	+$335	-$0	0.0%	$4,800 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$89	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.35	4/12	$3,133	$3,883	47%	66%	+$269	-$0	0.0%	$4,040 (vs do-nothing +$740)
$88.50	23d	14 Aug 2026	$3.70	7/12	$3,378	$3,847	46%	66%	+$330	-$0	0.0%	$5,540 (vs do-nothing +$2,240)
$88.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$3.20	6/12	$3,600	$4,162	45%	64%	+$253	-$0	0.0%	$4,920 (vs do-nothing +$1,620)
$88	23d	14 Aug 2026	$4.10	6/12	$3,209	$3,771	44%	64%	+$298	-$0	0.0%	$5,460 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$88.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.65	4/12	$3,533	$4,283	43%	64%	+$282	-$0	0.0%	$4,160 (vs do-nothing +$860)
$89	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.50	2/12	$4,500	$5,438	43%	64%	+$331	-$0	0.0%	$3,500 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$88	16d	7 Aug 2026	$3.50	5/12	$3,281	$3,938	42%	63%	+$221	-$0	0.0%	$4,800 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$88	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.95	4/12	$3,933	$4,683	39%	62%	+$266	-$0	0.0%	$4,280 (vs do-nothing +$980)
$88.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.85	2/12	$5,550	$6,488	36%	62%	+$437	-$0	0.0%	$3,570 (vs do-nothing +$270)
$88	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.20	1/12	$3,300	$4,331	30%	60%	+$219	-$0	0.0%	$3,470 (vs do-nothing +$170)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 23:04