FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $91.00

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $89.78 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $91.00 UNDERWATER $5.50 (5.7% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $89.78 (banked floor $89.14) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$3,812/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$1,368	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,906/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$3,812/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
8.3 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
8.3 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $89.78 (probe: $90C 17d) still earns $2,541/mo (67% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$662

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$89.78 → $89.14

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 36 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.20 (+11%) · daily UBB $96.26 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $89.78 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $95 21 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$1,980

Income / mo

$2,475

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $94.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $94.50)

86%

Touch odds

28%

Per cycle

$360

Income / mo

$3,600

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.87/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.36–$2.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 562 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $96 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$94	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.52/sh	+$618 cycle +$978 [+$91…+$730] · 80% credit	65% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$98	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.47/sh	+$562 cycle +$922 [-$209…+$639] · 67% credit	74% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$98	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.22/sh	+$263 cycle +$623 [-$569…+$326] · 45% credit	76% surv 70%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$96	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$139 cycle +$499 [-$502…+$213] · 41% credit	69% surv 59%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$100	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.22/sh	-$269 cycle +$91 [-$1,218…-$242] · 10% credit	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $360 debit $269 (75% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,797/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $98 7 Aug 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $98)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$300

Income / mo

$900

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$99	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.33/sh	+$400 cycle +$700 [+$27…+$700] · 77% credit	68% surv 57%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$100	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.21/sh	-$258 cycle +$42 [-$724…+$1] · 25% credit	72% surv 65%
budget: banked $300 debit $258 (86% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,200/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.41/sh	-$493 cycle -$193 [-$979…-$225] · 16% credit	61% surv 51%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (44 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 44 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,428

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$94.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.30	7/12	$2,100	$2,175	86%	88%	+$1,129	-$0	0.0%	$1,603 (vs do-nothing +$175)
$95.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.60	11/12	$1,980	$1,995	80%	83%	+$508	-$0	0.0%	$2,033 (vs do-nothing +$605)
$93.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.50	4/12	$2,000	$2,120	78%	83%	+$853	-$0	0.0%	$1,608 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$95	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.65	10/12	$1,950	$1,980	77%	81%	+$330	-$0	0.0%	$2,028 (vs do-nothing +$600)
$93	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.65	3/12	$1,950	$2,085	73%	80%	+$758	-$0	0.0%	$1,608 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$95.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.40	11/12	$1,925	$1,940	72%	78%	+$306	-$0	0.0%	$2,913 (vs do-nothing +$1,485)
$94	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.75	9/12	$2,025	$2,070	71%	77%	$-65	-$0	0.0%	$2,058 (vs do-nothing +$630)
$95	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.65	10/12	$2,062	$2,092	70%	77%	+$420	-$0	0.0%	$3,028 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)
$94.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.00	11/12	$1,941	$1,956	70%	75%	$-294	-$0	0.0%	$2,473 (vs do-nothing +$1,045)
$93.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.90	8/12	$2,160	$2,220	68%	75%	$-41	-$0	0.0%	$2,108 (vs do-nothing +$680)
$92.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.80	3/12	$2,400	$2,535	68%	76%	+$789	-$0	0.0%	$1,653 (vs do-nothing +$225)
$94	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.15	10/12	$2,029	$2,059	67%	74%	$-260	-$0	0.0%	$2,528 (vs do-nothing +$1,100)
$94	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.90	9/12	$2,138	$2,182	66%	74%	+$310	-$0	0.0%	$3,093 (vs do-nothing +$1,665)

Show 31 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$93.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.45	8/12	$2,047	$2,107	65%	73%	+$79	-$0	0.0%	$2,548 (vs do-nothing +$1,120)
$93	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.20	6/12	$2,160	$2,250	65%	73%	+$218	-$0	0.0%	$2,118 (vs do-nothing +$690)
$93.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.05	8/12	$2,050	$2,110	63%	73%	+$252	-$0	0.0%	$3,028 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)
$93	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.35	8/12	$1,906	$1,966	62%	71%	$-318	-$0	0.0%	$2,468 (vs do-nothing +$1,040)
$92	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.00	2/12	$2,000	$2,150	62%	73%	+$582	-$0	0.0%	$1,618 (vs do-nothing +$190)
$92.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.35	5/12	$2,025	$2,130	62%	71%	+$135	-$0	0.0%	$2,078 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$93	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.10	8/12	$2,100	$2,160	61%	72%	+$114	-$0	0.0%	$3,068 (vs do-nothing +$1,640)
$92.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.70	7/12	$2,100	$2,175	60%	70%	$-89	-$0	0.0%	$2,583 (vs do-nothing +$1,155)
$92.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.90	9/12	$2,138	$2,182	59%	69%	$-425	-$0	0.0%	$3,093 (vs do-nothing +$1,665)
$92	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.60	4/12	$1,920	$2,040	58%	70%	+$166	-$0	0.0%	$2,048 (vs do-nothing +$620)
$92	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.15	6/12	$2,276	$2,366	57%	69%	+$135	-$0	0.0%	$2,688 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$91.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.20	2/12	$2,400	$2,550	57%	71%	+$570	-$0	0.0%	$1,658 (vs do-nothing +$230)
$92	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.60	6/12	$1,950	$2,040	56%	69%	+$85	-$0	0.0%	$2,958 (vs do-nothing +$1,530)
$91.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.45	5/12	$2,175	$2,280	55%	68%	$-351	-$0	0.0%	$2,128 (vs do-nothing +$700)
$91.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.65	7/12	$2,038	$2,113	54%	67%	$-696	-$0	0.0%	$2,548 (vs do-nothing +$1,120)
$91.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.85	9/12	$2,081	$2,126	54%	66%	$-965	-$0	0.0%	$3,048 (vs do-nothing +$1,620)
$91	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.20	5/12	$2,000	$2,105	52%	67%	+$160	-$0	0.0%	$3,003 (vs do-nothing +$1,575)
$91	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.80	6/12	$1,906	$1,996	52%	66%	$-696	-$0	0.0%	$2,478 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$91	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.00	4/12	$2,400	$2,520	51%	66%	+$87	-$0	0.0%	$2,208 (vs do-nothing +$780)
$91	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.45	2/12	$2,900	$3,050	51%	69%	+$588	-$0	0.0%	$1,708 (vs do-nothing +$280)
$90.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.35	7/12	$2,056	$2,131	50%	64%	$-737	-$0	0.0%	$3,038 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$90.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.15	6/12	$2,276	$2,366	49%	64%	$-601	-$0	0.0%	$2,688 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$90.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.80	4/12	$2,160	$2,280	48%	64%	$-470	-$0	0.0%	$2,128 (vs do-nothing +$700)
$90	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.50	5/12	$2,188	$2,292	47%	65%	+$29	-$0	0.0%	$3,153 (vs do-nothing +$1,725)
$90	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.20	5/12	$1,941	$2,046	46%	63%	$-701	-$0	0.0%	$2,503 (vs do-nothing +$1,075)
$89.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/12	$1,938	$2,042	45%	63%	$-394	-$0	0.0%	$2,813 (vs do-nothing +$1,385)
$90	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.35	3/12	$2,115	$2,250	44%	63%	$-114	-$0	0.0%	$2,118 (vs do-nothing +$690)
$89.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.70	3/12	$1,959	$2,094	43%	64%	+$219	-$0	0.0%	$2,439 (vs do-nothing +$1,011)
$89.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.35	3/12	$2,115	$2,250	41%	61%	$-389	-$0	0.0%	$2,034 (vs do-nothing +$606)
$90	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.05	1/12	$2,050	$2,215	39%	63%	+$310	-$0	0.0%	$1,628 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$89.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.25	1/12	$2,250	$2,415	34%	64%	+$170	-$0	0.0%	$1,620 (vs do-nothing +$192)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 11:53