FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $91.14

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $87.20 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $91.14 UNDERWATER $5.36 (5.6% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $87.20 (banked floor $86.51) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$3,515/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$3,996	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,758/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$3,515/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
9.0 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
9.0 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $87.20 (probe: $89.5C 17d) still earns $4,362/mo (124% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$662

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$87.20 → $86.51

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 38 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.20 (+11%) · daily UBB $96.26 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $87.20 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $94 7 Aug 2026 (10d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $94)

70%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$900

Income / mo

$2,700

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.50/sh now → $1.77 mid-life (likely $2.09–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,464 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $95 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$95	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.49/sh	+$593 cycle +$1,493 [+$39…+$492] · 79% credit	67% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$96	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.02/sh	+$21 cycle +$921 [-$640…-$126] · 19% credit	70% surv 61%
SS $96 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$94	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.22/sh	-$266 cycle +$634 [-$946…-$416] · 10% credit	61% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$98	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.66/sh	-$787 cycle +$113 [-$1,607…-$1,001] · 3% credit	78% surv 73%
budget: banked $900 debit $787 (87% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$113 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,111/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $94.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $94.50)

85%

Touch odds

30%

Per cycle

$360

Income / mo

$3,600

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.77/sh now → $1.26 mid-life (likely $1.31–$2.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 602 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $96 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$94	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.44/sh	+$529 cycle +$889 [-$31…+$620] · 74% credit	64% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$97	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.54/sh	+$645 cycle +$1,005 [-$113…+$715] · 72% credit	73% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$95	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.19/sh	+$225 cycle +$585 [-$405…+$298] · 49% credit	68% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$99	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$58 cycle +$418 [-$826…+$99] · 30% credit	77% surv 72%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$100	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.15/sh	-$185 cycle +$175 [-$1,114…-$158] · 15% credit	81% surv 78%
budget: banked $360 debit $185 (51% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$175 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,801/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $102 21 Aug 2026 (24d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $102)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$420

Income / mo

$525

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (47 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 47 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,056

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$95.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.15	12/12	$1,800	$1,800	91%	92%	+$978	-$0	0.0%	$4,176 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$95	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.15	12/12	$1,800	$1,800	88%	90%	+$551	-$0	0.0%	$4,176 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$94.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.30	6/12	$1,800	$1,890	85%	87%	+$874	-$0	0.0%	$4,206 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$95.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.60	10/12	$1,800	$1,830	79%	82%	+$384	-$0	0.0%	$4,606 (vs do-nothing +$550)
$93.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.50	4/12	$2,000	$2,120	77%	81%	+$742	-$0	0.0%	$4,236 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$97	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.20	12/12	$1,800	$1,800	77%	81%	+$504	-$0	0.0%	$5,436 (vs do-nothing +$1,380)
$95	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.65	10/12	$1,950	$1,980	76%	80%	+$241	-$0	0.0%	$4,656 (vs do-nothing +$600)
$94.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.50	12/12	$1,800	$1,800	73%	78%	$-659	-$0	0.0%	$4,596 (vs do-nothing +$540)
$96	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.20	12/12	$1,800	$1,800	73%	78%	+$167	-$0	0.0%	$5,436 (vs do-nothing +$1,380)
$93	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.65	3/12	$1,950	$2,085	72%	78%	+$652	-$0	0.0%	$4,236 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$95.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.40	11/12	$1,925	$1,940	71%	78%	+$252	-$0	0.0%	$5,541 (vs do-nothing +$1,485)
$94	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.75	8/12	$1,800	$1,860	70%	76%	$-152	-$0	0.0%	$4,616 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$95	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.65	9/12	$1,856	$1,901	69%	76%	+$330	-$0	0.0%	$5,496 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)

Show 34 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$94.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.00	10/12	$1,765	$1,795	69%	74%	$-349	-$0	0.0%	$5,006 (vs do-nothing +$950)
$93.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.90	7/12	$1,890	$1,965	67%	74%	$-128	-$0	0.0%	$4,651 (vs do-nothing +$595)
$92.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.80	3/12	$2,400	$2,535	66%	75%	+$658	-$0	0.0%	$4,281 (vs do-nothing +$225)
$94	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.15	9/12	$1,826	$1,871	66%	74%	$-314	-$0	0.0%	$5,046 (vs do-nothing +$990)
$94	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.90	8/12	$1,900	$1,960	65%	74%	+$226	-$0	0.0%	$5,536 (vs do-nothing +$1,480)
$93	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.20	5/12	$1,800	$1,905	64%	73%	+$108	-$0	0.0%	$4,631 (vs do-nothing +$575)
$93.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.45	7/12	$1,791	$1,866	64%	72%	$-76	-$0	0.0%	$5,036 (vs do-nothing +$980)
$93.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.05	7/12	$1,794	$1,869	63%	73%	+$173	-$0	0.0%	$5,456 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)
$93	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.35	8/12	$1,906	$1,966	61%	70%	$-479	-$0	0.0%	$5,096 (vs do-nothing +$1,040)
$92	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.00	2/12	$2,000	$2,150	61%	72%	+$476	-$0	0.0%	$4,246 (vs do-nothing +$190)
$92.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.35	5/12	$2,025	$2,130	61%	71%	+$53	-$0	0.0%	$4,706 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$93	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.10	7/12	$1,838	$1,912	60%	71%	+$50	-$0	0.0%	$5,491 (vs do-nothing +$1,435)
$92.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.70	6/12	$1,800	$1,890	59%	69%	$-193	-$0	0.0%	$5,046 (vs do-nothing +$990)
$92.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.90	8/12	$1,900	$1,960	58%	69%	$-348	-$0	0.0%	$5,536 (vs do-nothing +$1,480)
$92	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.60	4/12	$1,920	$2,040	57%	69%	+$93	-$0	0.0%	$4,676 (vs do-nothing +$620)
$92	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.15	5/12	$1,897	$2,002	56%	68%	+$52	-$0	0.0%	$5,106 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$92	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.60	6/12	$1,950	$2,040	56%	69%	+$99	-$0	0.0%	$5,586 (vs do-nothing +$1,530)
$91.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.20	2/12	$2,400	$2,550	55%	69%	+$445	-$0	0.0%	$4,286 (vs do-nothing +$230)
$91.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.45	5/12	$2,175	$2,280	54%	67%	$-451	-$0	0.0%	$4,756 (vs do-nothing +$700)
$91.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.85	8/12	$1,850	$1,910	54%	66%	$-851	-$0	0.0%	$5,496 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)
$91	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.20	5/12	$2,000	$2,105	51%	67%	+$112	-$0	0.0%	$5,631 (vs do-nothing +$1,575)
$91	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.80	6/12	$1,906	$1,996	51%	65%	$-773	-$0	0.0%	$5,106 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$91	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.00	3/12	$1,800	$1,935	50%	65%	+$0	-$0	0.0%	$4,641 (vs do-nothing +$585)
$91	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.45	2/12	$2,900	$3,050	49%	67%	+$444	-$0	0.0%	$4,336 (vs do-nothing +$280)
$90.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.35	6/12	$1,762	$1,852	49%	64%	$-693	-$0	0.0%	$5,436 (vs do-nothing +$1,380)
$90.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.15	5/12	$1,897	$2,002	48%	63%	$-569	-$0	0.0%	$5,106 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$90.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.80	4/12	$2,160	$2,280	47%	63%	$-564	-$0	0.0%	$4,756 (vs do-nothing +$700)
$90	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.50	5/12	$2,188	$2,292	47%	64%	$-25	-$0	0.0%	$5,781 (vs do-nothing +$1,725)
$90	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.20	5/12	$1,941	$2,046	45%	62%	$-772	-$0	0.0%	$5,131 (vs do-nothing +$1,075)
$89.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/12	$1,938	$2,042	44%	62%	$-449	-$0	0.0%	$5,581 (vs do-nothing +$1,525)
$90	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.35	3/12	$2,115	$2,250	43%	62%	$-190	-$0	0.0%	$4,746 (vs do-nothing +$690)
$89.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.70	3/12	$1,959	$2,094	43%	64%	+$174	-$0	0.0%	$5,151 (vs do-nothing +$1,095)
$90	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.05	1/12	$2,050	$2,215	38%	62%	+$219	-$0	0.0%	$4,256 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$89.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.25	1/12	$2,250	$2,415	33%	62%	+$71	-$0	0.0%	$4,276 (vs do-nothing +$220)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 12:24