FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $90.90

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $86.41 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $90.90 UNDERWATER $5.60 (5.8% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $86.41 (banked floor $85.72) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$5,929/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$4,500	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,965/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$5,929/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.4 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
5.4 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $86.41 (probe: $89.5C 17d) still earns $4,447/mo (75% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$662

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$86.41 → $85.72

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 59 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 35 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.21 (+11%) · daily UBB $96.25 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $86.41 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $95 21 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$1,980

Income / mo

$2,475

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $94 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $94)

82%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$420

Income / mo

$4,200

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now → $1.51 mid-life (likely $1.61–$2.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 737 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $95 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$97	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.57/sh	+$684 cycle +$1,104 [-$309…+$752] · 64% credit	73% surv 64%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$94	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.36/sh	+$432 cycle +$852 [-$285…+$544] · 60% credit	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$95	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.16/sh	+$196 cycle +$616 [-$574…+$282] · 41% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$98	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$40 cycle +$460 [-$1,136…+$65] · 27% credit	76% surv 70%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$99	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.26/sh	-$311 cycle +$109 [-$1,584…-$309] · 8% credit	79% surv 74%
budget: banked $420 debit $311 (74% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$109 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,052/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $98 7 Aug 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $98)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$240

Income / mo

$720

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.53/sh now → $2.49 mid-life (likely $2.17–$3.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 446 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $99 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$98	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.39/sh	+$472 cycle +$712 [-$50…+$948] · 72% credit	67% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$99	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.10/sh	+$121 cycle +$361 [-$442…+$594] · 55% credit	68% surv 55%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.14/sh	-$170 cycle +$70 [-$652…+$248] · 38% credit	66% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$99	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.14/sh	-$172 cycle +$68 [-$769…+$288] · 37% credit	69% surv 57%
budget: banked $240 debit $172 (72% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$68 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,455/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (40 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.829 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,860

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$94.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.25	12/12	$3,000	$3,000	85%	88%	+$1,093	-$0	0.0%	$4,800 (vs do-nothing $-60)
$94	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.35	9/12	$3,150	$3,420	82%	85%	+$1,102	-$0	0.0%	$4,905 (vs do-nothing +$45)
$93.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.45	7/12	$3,150	$3,600	78%	82%	+$925	-$0	0.0%	$4,965 (vs do-nothing +$105)
$93	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.60	5/12	$3,000	$3,630	73%	79%	+$833	-$0	0.0%	$5,010 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$94	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.95	11/12	$3,135	$3,225	72%	79%	+$709	-$0	0.0%	$5,575 (vs do-nothing +$715)
$94	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.50	12/12	$3,176	$3,176	68%	76%	+$671	-$0	0.0%	$6,300 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)
$92.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.75	4/12	$3,000	$3,720	68%	76%	+$691	-$0	0.0%	$5,040 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$93	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.25	8/12	$3,000	$3,360	66%	75%	+$556	-$0	0.0%	$5,620 (vs do-nothing +$760)
$94	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.00	12/12	$3,000	$3,000	66%	74%	+$536	-$0	0.0%	$6,900 (vs do-nothing +$2,040)
$93.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.70	10/12	$3,000	$3,180	66%	75%	+$626	-$0	0.0%	$6,260 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)
$93.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.20	11/12	$3,025	$3,115	64%	74%	+$598	-$0	0.0%	$6,950 (vs do-nothing +$2,090)
$93	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.85	10/12	$3,265	$3,445	63%	73%	+$578	-$0	0.0%	$6,410 (vs do-nothing +$1,550)
$92	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.95	4/12	$3,800	$4,520	63%	74%	+$794	-$0	0.0%	$5,120 (vs do-nothing +$260)

Show 27 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$92.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.45	7/12	$3,045	$3,495	63%	74%	+$551	-$0	0.0%	$5,665 (vs do-nothing +$805)
$93	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.35	11/12	$3,231	$3,321	62%	72%	+$550	-$0	0.0%	$7,115 (vs do-nothing +$2,255)
$92.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.15	8/12	$3,035	$3,395	60%	72%	+$615	-$0	0.0%	$6,340 (vs do-nothing +$1,480)
$92.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.60	10/12	$3,250	$3,430	59%	72%	+$565	-$0	0.0%	$7,160 (vs do-nothing +$2,300)
$92	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.65	6/12	$2,970	$3,510	59%	72%	+$493	-$0	0.0%	$5,670 (vs do-nothing +$810)
$92	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.30	8/12	$3,247	$3,607	58%	71%	+$532	-$0	0.0%	$6,460 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)
$91.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.15	3/12	$3,450	$4,260	57%	72%	+$577	-$0	0.0%	$5,115 (vs do-nothing +$255)
$92	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.75	9/12	$3,094	$3,364	57%	70%	+$439	-$0	0.0%	$7,065 (vs do-nothing +$2,205)
$91.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.85	6/12	$3,330	$3,870	56%	71%	+$476	-$0	0.0%	$5,790 (vs do-nothing +$930)
$91.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.55	7/12	$3,150	$3,600	55%	70%	+$497	-$0	0.0%	$6,435 (vs do-nothing +$1,575)
$91.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.00	8/12	$3,000	$3,360	55%	69%	+$414	-$0	0.0%	$7,020 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$91	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.30	8/12	$3,300	$3,660	52%	68%	+$474	-$0	0.0%	$7,260 (vs do-nothing +$2,400)
$91	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.80	6/12	$2,965	$3,505	52%	69%	+$436	-$0	0.0%	$6,360 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$91	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.00	5/12	$3,000	$3,630	52%	70%	+$277	-$0	0.0%	$5,710 (vs do-nothing +$850)
$91	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.35	3/12	$4,050	$4,860	52%	69%	+$462	-$0	0.0%	$5,175 (vs do-nothing +$315)
$90.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.50	7/12	$3,062	$3,512	50%	67%	+$368	-$0	0.0%	$7,100 (vs do-nothing +$2,240)
$90.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.00	6/12	$3,176	$3,716	49%	67%	+$392	-$0	0.0%	$6,480 (vs do-nothing +$1,620)
$90.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.20	5/12	$3,300	$3,930	48%	68%	+$200	-$0	0.0%	$5,810 (vs do-nothing +$950)
$90	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.80	7/12	$3,325	$3,775	48%	66%	+$395	-$0	0.0%	$7,310 (vs do-nothing +$2,450)
$90	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.30	6/12	$3,494	$4,034	47%	66%	+$429	-$0	0.0%	$6,660 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$90.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.65	2/12	$3,300	$4,200	47%	67%	+$368	-$0	0.0%	$5,130 (vs do-nothing +$270)
$89.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$4.10	6/12	$3,075	$3,615	45%	65%	+$352	-$0	0.0%	$7,140 (vs do-nothing +$2,280)
$90	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.50	4/12	$3,000	$3,720	45%	66%	+$193	-$0	0.0%	$5,740 (vs do-nothing +$880)
$89.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.50	5/12	$3,088	$3,718	44%	65%	+$286	-$0	0.0%	$6,460 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)
$90	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.90	2/12	$3,800	$4,700	41%	64%	+$268	-$0	0.0%	$5,180 (vs do-nothing +$320)
$89.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.80	4/12	$3,360	$4,080	41%	65%	+$200	-$0	0.0%	$5,860 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)
$89.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.25	2/12	$4,500	$5,400	36%	63%	+$310	-$0	0.0%	$5,250 (vs do-nothing +$390)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 21:35