FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $92.33

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $86.64 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $92.33 UNDERWATER $4.17 (4.3% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $86.64 (banked floor $85.94) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$5,625/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$5,700	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,812/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$5,625/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.7 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
5.7 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $86.64 (probe: $90.5C 16d) still earns $4,208/mo (75% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$662

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$86.64 → $85.94

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 65 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 52 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.32 (+10%) · daily UBB $96.20 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $86.64 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $90.50 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $90.50)

30%

Touch odds

100%

Per cycle

$2,820

Income / mo

$42,300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$90	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.80/sh	+$958 cycle +$3,778	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$92	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.21/sh	+$256 cycle +$3,076	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$96	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$30 cycle +$2,850	80% surv 76%
SS $96 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$101	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.84/sh	-$1,008 cycle +$1,812	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $2,820 debit $1,008 (36% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,812 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $564/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $95 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$360

Income / mo

$5,400

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 703 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $96 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.73/sh	+$881 cycle +$1,241 [+$249…+$837] · 82% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$98	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.62/sh	+$750 cycle +$1,110 [-$201…+$656] · 67% credit	74% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$96	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.19/sh	+$225 cycle +$585 [-$614…+$138] · 39% credit	70% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$100	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.13/sh	+$158 cycle +$518 [-$946…+$33] · 27% credit	78% surv 73%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$101	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.26/sh	-$311 cycle +$49 [-$1,554…-$462] · 2% credit	82% surv 79%
budget: banked $360 debit $311 (86% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$49 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,611/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $103 21 Aug 2026 (23d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $103)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$360

Income / mo

$470

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (44 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 44 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.833 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $7,020

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$95	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.30	7/12	$3,150	$4,181	81%	84%	+$832	-$0	0.0%	$6,460 (vs do-nothing $-560)
$94.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.35	6/12	$3,150	$4,388	76%	81%	+$307	-$0	0.0%	$6,570 (vs do-nothing $-450)
$95.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$0.85	10/12	$2,833	$3,246	73%	79%	+$518	-$0	0.0%	$6,770 (vs do-nothing $-250)
$96	16d	14 Aug 2026	$1.25	12/12	$2,812	$2,812	71%	78%	+$610	-$0	0.0%	$7,200 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$94	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.55	4/12	$3,300	$4,950	71%	78%	+$664	-$0	0.0%	$6,800 (vs do-nothing $-220)
$95	9d	7 Aug 2026	$1.00	9/12	$3,000	$3,619	70%	77%	+$513	-$0	0.0%	$6,930 (vs do-nothing $-90)
$95.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$1.40	11/12	$2,888	$3,094	69%	76%	+$573	-$0	0.0%	$7,350 (vs do-nothing +$330)
$95.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$1.95	12/12	$3,052	$3,052	66%	75%	+$658	-$0	0.0%	$8,040 (vs do-nothing +$1,020)
$94.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$1.15	8/12	$3,067	$3,892	66%	75%	+$446	-$0	0.0%	$7,060 (vs do-nothing +$40)
$95	16d	14 Aug 2026	$1.55	10/12	$2,906	$3,319	66%	75%	+$506	-$0	0.0%	$7,470 (vs do-nothing +$450)
$93.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.75	3/12	$3,375	$5,231	65%	75%	+$698	-$0	0.0%	$6,915 (vs do-nothing $-105)
$95	23d	21 Aug 2026	$2.10	11/12	$3,013	$3,219	64%	74%	+$573	-$0	0.0%	$8,120 (vs do-nothing +$1,100)
$94.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$1.80	9/12	$3,038	$3,656	64%	73%	+$585	-$0	0.0%	$7,650 (vs do-nothing +$630)

Show 31 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$94	9d	7 Aug 2026	$1.35	7/12	$3,150	$4,181	63%	73%	+$452	-$0	0.0%	$7,195 (vs do-nothing +$175)
$94.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$2.30	10/12	$3,000	$3,412	62%	72%	+$541	-$0	0.0%	$8,220 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$94	16d	14 Aug 2026	$1.95	8/12	$2,925	$3,750	61%	72%	+$461	-$0	0.0%	$7,700 (vs do-nothing +$680)
$94	23d	21 Aug 2026	$2.50	9/12	$2,935	$3,554	60%	71%	+$489	-$0	0.0%	$8,280 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$93.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$1.55	6/12	$3,100	$4,338	60%	71%	+$398	-$0	0.0%	$7,290 (vs do-nothing +$270)
$93	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.95	2/12	$2,850	$4,912	59%	72%	+$494	-$0	0.0%	$6,990 (vs do-nothing $-30)
$93.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$2.15	7/12	$2,822	$3,853	58%	72%	+$396	-$0	0.0%	$7,755 (vs do-nothing +$735)
$93.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$2.75	8/12	$2,870	$3,695	57%	70%	+$474	-$0	0.0%	$8,340 (vs do-nothing +$1,320)
$93	9d	7 Aug 2026	$1.75	5/12	$2,917	$4,360	56%	69%	+$305	-$0	0.0%	$7,345 (vs do-nothing +$325)
$93	16d	14 Aug 2026	$2.40	7/12	$3,150	$4,181	55%	69%	+$434	-$0	0.0%	$7,930 (vs do-nothing +$910)
$93	23d	21 Aug 2026	$3.10	7/12	$2,830	$3,862	55%	69%	+$527	-$0	0.0%	$8,420 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)
$92.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$1.15	2/12	$3,450	$5,512	53%	69%	+$413	-$0	0.0%	$7,030 (vs do-nothing +$10)
$92.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$3.20	7/12	$2,922	$3,953	53%	68%	+$398	-$0	0.0%	$8,490 (vs do-nothing +$1,470)
$92.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$2.50	6/12	$2,812	$4,050	52%	68%	+$216	-$0	0.0%	$7,860 (vs do-nothing +$840)
$92.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$2.00	5/12	$3,333	$4,777	52%	68%	+$326	-$0	0.0%	$7,470 (vs do-nothing +$450)
$92	23d	21 Aug 2026	$3.60	6/12	$2,817	$4,055	50%	67%	+$454	-$0	0.0%	$8,520 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$92	16d	14 Aug 2026	$2.90	6/12	$3,262	$4,500	50%	69%	+$379	-$0	0.0%	$8,100 (vs do-nothing +$1,080)
$92	9d	7 Aug 2026	$2.30	4/12	$3,067	$4,717	49%	66%	+$315	-$0	0.0%	$7,500 (vs do-nothing +$480)
$91.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$3.70	6/12	$2,896	$4,133	48%	66%	+$321	-$0	0.0%	$8,580 (vs do-nothing +$1,560)
$91.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/12	$2,906	$4,350	47%	65%	+$249	-$0	0.0%	$8,020 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)
$92	2d	31 Jul 2026	$1.55	2/12	$4,650	$6,712	47%	67%	+$822	-$0	0.0%	$7,110 (vs do-nothing +$90)
$91	23d	21 Aug 2026	$4.00	6/12	$3,130	$4,368	46%	66%	+$333	-$0	0.0%	$8,760 (vs do-nothing +$1,740)
$91.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$2.55	4/12	$3,400	$5,050	45%	65%	+$274	-$0	0.0%	$7,600 (vs do-nothing +$580)
$91	16d	14 Aug 2026	$3.40	5/12	$3,188	$4,631	44%	64%	+$260	-$0	0.0%	$8,170 (vs do-nothing +$1,150)
$90.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$4.30	6/12	$3,365	$4,603	43%	64%	+$335	-$0	0.0%	$8,940 (vs do-nothing +$1,920)
$91	9d	7 Aug 2026	$2.85	3/12	$2,850	$4,706	42%	64%	+$204	-$0	0.0%	$7,545 (vs do-nothing +$525)
$90.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$3.70	5/12	$3,469	$4,912	41%	63%	+$257	-$0	0.0%	$8,320 (vs do-nothing +$1,300)
$91.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$1.70	2/12	$5,100	$7,162	41%	65%	+$373	-$0	0.0%	$7,140 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$90.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$3.10	3/12	$3,100	$4,956	38%	62%	+$132	-$0	0.0%	$7,620 (vs do-nothing +$600)
$91	2d	31 Jul 2026	$2.00	1/12	$3,000	$5,269	35%	62%	+$136	-$0	0.0%	$7,110 (vs do-nothing +$90)
$90.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$2.35	1/12	$3,525	$5,794	30%	60%	+$115	-$0	0.0%	$7,145 (vs do-nothing +$125)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-29 21:41