FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $92.60

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $85.33 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $92.60 UNDERWATER $3.90 (4.0% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $85.33 (banked floor $84.63) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$6,480/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$7,200	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,240/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$6,480/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $85.33 (probe: $91C 15d) still earns $4,320/mo (67% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$662

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$85.33 → $84.63

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 66 (live) · RSI 51 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 55 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.34 (+9%) · daily UBB $96.23 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $85.33 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $96 14 Aug 2026 (15d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $96)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$900

Income / mo

$1,800

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.46/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $2.86–$3.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,546 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 15, at $97 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	21 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.25/sh	+$301 cycle +$1,201 [-$213…+$195] · 41% credit	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$96	21 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.02/sh	+$25 cycle +$925 [-$536…-$105] · 20% credit	68% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$96	21 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.02/sh	+$25 cycle +$925 [-$536…-$105] · 20% credit	68% surv 54%
SS $96 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$98	21 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.61/sh	-$734 cycle +$166 [-$1,423…-$939] · 3% credit	72% surv 62%
budget: banked $900 debit $734 (82% used ≈ 1.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$166 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,727/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $98 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $98)

85%

Touch odds

30%

Per cycle

$660

Income / mo

$2,475

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$99	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.37/sh	+$439 cycle +$1,099 [-$218…+$654] · 62% credit	69% surv 56%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.10/sh	+$119 cycle +$779 [-$421…+$331] · 43% credit	66% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$100	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.36/sh	-$428 cycle +$232 [-$1,285…-$277] · 16% credit	72% surv 64%
budget: banked $660 debit $428 (65% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$232 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,679/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $104 21 Aug 2026 (22d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $104)

91%

Touch odds

19%

Per cycle

$240

Income / mo

$327

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.831 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $8,460

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$95.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$0.85	11/12	$3,506	$3,716	72%	79%	+$685	-$0	0.0%	$8,240 (vs do-nothing $-220)
$95	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.20	8/12	$3,600	$4,440	68%	76%	+$864	-$0	0.0%	$8,580 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$95.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.60	11/12	$3,520	$3,730	67%	75%	+$807	-$0	0.0%	$9,065 (vs do-nothing +$605)
$94.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.15	8/12	$3,450	$4,290	65%	74%	+$237	-$0	0.0%	$8,540 (vs do-nothing +$80)
$95	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.15	12/12	$3,518	$3,518	63%	72%	+$500	-$0	0.0%	$9,780 (vs do-nothing +$1,320)
$94.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.55	11/12	$3,410	$3,620	62%	72%	$-59	-$0	0.0%	$9,010 (vs do-nothing +$550)
$94	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.30	7/12	$3,412	$4,462	61%	72%	+$132	-$0	0.0%	$8,635 (vs do-nothing +$175)
$94.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.45	10/12	$3,341	$3,761	61%	73%	+$566	-$0	0.0%	$9,860 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)
$94	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.90	9/12	$3,420	$4,050	59%	71%	+$240	-$0	0.0%	$9,225 (vs do-nothing +$765)
$93.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.50	6/12	$3,375	$4,635	58%	70%	+$114	-$0	0.0%	$8,730 (vs do-nothing +$270)
$93.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.50	11/12	$3,300	$3,510	57%	68%	$-1,040	-$0	0.0%	$8,955 (vs do-nothing +$495)
$93.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.90	9/12	$3,559	$4,189	56%	70%	+$523	-$0	0.0%	$10,125 (vs do-nothing +$1,665)
$93	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.90	5/12	$3,562	$5,032	54%	69%	+$431	-$0	0.0%	$8,885 (vs do-nothing +$425)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$93	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.30	8/12	$3,680	$4,520	54%	69%	+$168	-$0	0.0%	$9,460 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)
$93	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.10	8/12	$3,382	$4,222	54%	69%	+$448	-$0	0.0%	$10,100 (vs do-nothing +$1,640)
$92.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.40	7/12	$3,245	$4,295	51%	68%	+$443	-$0	0.0%	$10,105 (vs do-nothing +$1,645)
$92.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.80	6/12	$3,360	$4,620	51%	68%	+$440	-$0	0.0%	$9,510 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$92.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.15	5/12	$4,031	$5,501	50%	68%	+$444	-$0	0.0%	$9,010 (vs do-nothing +$550)
$92	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.60	7/12	$3,436	$4,486	49%	66%	+$384	-$0	0.0%	$10,245 (vs do-nothing +$1,785)
$92	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.75	6/12	$3,300	$4,560	48%	66%	+$74	-$0	0.0%	$9,480 (vs do-nothing +$1,020)
$92	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.35	4/12	$3,525	$5,205	47%	65%	+$258	-$0	0.0%	$8,980 (vs do-nothing +$520)
$91.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.50	7/12	$3,341	$4,391	47%	65%	+$26	-$0	0.0%	$10,175 (vs do-nothing +$1,715)
$91.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.00	6/12	$3,600	$4,860	45%	65%	+$47	-$0	0.0%	$9,630 (vs do-nothing +$1,170)
$91	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.80	7/12	$3,627	$4,677	44%	64%	+$36	-$0	0.0%	$10,385 (vs do-nothing +$1,925)
$91.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.75	4/12	$4,125	$5,805	43%	64%	+$429	-$0	0.0%	$9,140 (vs do-nothing +$680)
$91	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.40	5/12	$3,400	$4,870	42%	63%	+$151	-$0	0.0%	$9,635 (vs do-nothing +$1,175)
$91	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.65	4/12	$3,975	$5,655	40%	63%	$-183	-$0	0.0%	$9,100 (vs do-nothing +$640)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 19:14