FORTRESS FIGHT: IGV @ $92.66

BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $86.97 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IGV @ $92.66 UNDERWATER $3.84 (4.0% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $96.50 | CC-SS: $86.97 (banked floor $86.28) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$31,800	(ND $26.50 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$5,748/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$5,700	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,874/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$5,748/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $31,800

ML VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $31,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $86.97 (probe: $91C 15d) still earns $1,188/mo (21% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$662

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$86.97 → $86.28

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 66 (live) · RSI 51 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 56 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.38 (+9%) · daily UBB $96.15 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $86.97 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $96 14 Aug 2026 (15d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $96)

69%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$1,080

Income / mo

$2,160

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$95	21 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.44/sh	+$531 cycle +$1,611 [-$67…+$440] · 65% credit	62% surv 45%
SS $96 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	21 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.23/sh	-$273 cycle +$807 [-$997…-$450] · 11% credit	64% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$98	21 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.84/sh	-$1,014 cycle +$66 [-$1,784…-$1,247] · 2% credit	73% surv 65%
budget: banked $1,080 debit $1,014 (94% used ≈ 2.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$66 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,250/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $98 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $98)

84%

Touch odds

32%

Per cycle

$420

Income / mo

$1,575

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.76/sh now → $1.95 mid-life (likely $1.96–$3.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 752 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $99 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$98	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.37/sh	+$442 cycle +$862 [-$151…+$643] · 66% credit	65% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$99	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.17/sh	+$204 cycle +$624 [-$429…+$391] · 46% credit	66% surv 56%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.02/sh	+$25 cycle +$445 [-$503…+$201] · 37% credit	64% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$101	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.34/sh	-$412 cycle +$8 [-$1,166…-$294] · 15% credit	73% surv 66%
budget: banked $420 debit $412 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$8 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,214/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $103 21 Aug 2026 (22d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $103)

89%

Touch odds

22%

Per cycle

$240

Income / mo

$327

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (26 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.831 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,760

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$95.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$0.70	11/12	$2,888	$2,898	71%	77%	$-248	-$0	0.0%	$6,475 (vs do-nothing +$715)
$95	8d	7 Aug 2026	$0.95	9/12	$3,206	$3,236	68%	75%	+$163	-$0	0.0%	$6,570 (vs do-nothing +$810)
$95.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$1.90	12/12	$3,109	$3,109	65%	74%	+$382	-$0	0.0%	$7,980 (vs do-nothing +$2,220)
$94.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.05	8/12	$3,150	$3,190	64%	73%	$-38	-$0	0.0%	$6,560 (vs do-nothing +$800)
$95	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.45	10/12	$2,900	$2,920	64%	73%	+$18	-$0	0.0%	$7,160 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)
$95	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.25	10/12	$3,068	$3,088	63%	73%	+$553	-$0	0.0%	$7,960 (vs do-nothing +$2,200)
$94	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.25	7/12	$3,281	$3,331	61%	72%	+$17	-$0	0.0%	$6,600 (vs do-nothing +$840)
$94.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.00	11/12	$3,000	$3,010	60%	71%	$-55	-$0	0.0%	$7,905 (vs do-nothing +$2,145)
$94	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.20	10/12	$3,000	$3,020	58%	70%	$-58	-$0	0.0%	$7,910 (vs do-nothing +$2,150)
$93.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.45	6/12	$3,262	$3,322	57%	70%	+$9	-$0	0.0%	$6,600 (vs do-nothing +$840)
$93.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.40	9/12	$2,945	$2,975	56%	69%	$-77	-$0	0.0%	$7,875 (vs do-nothing +$2,115)
$93	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.85	5/12	$3,469	$3,539	54%	69%	+$337	-$0	0.0%	$6,660 (vs do-nothing +$900)
$93	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.80	8/12	$2,880	$2,920	53%	67%	$-693	-$0	0.0%	$7,160 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)

Show 13 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$93	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.60	9/12	$3,191	$3,221	53%	68%	$-119	-$0	0.0%	$8,055 (vs do-nothing +$2,295)
$92.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.90	8/12	$3,164	$3,204	51%	67%	$-50	-$0	0.0%	$8,040 (vs do-nothing +$2,280)
$92.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.55	6/12	$3,060	$3,120	51%	67%	+$85	-$0	0.0%	$7,260 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$92.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.95	4/12	$2,925	$3,005	50%	66%	+$50	-$0	0.0%	$6,520 (vs do-nothing +$760)
$92	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.00	8/12	$3,273	$3,313	49%	67%	$-228	-$0	0.0%	$8,120 (vs do-nothing +$2,360)
$92	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.60	9/12	$2,880	$2,910	48%	63%	$-2,055	-$0	0.0%	$7,155 (vs do-nothing +$1,395)
$91.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.50	7/12	$3,341	$3,391	46%	65%	+$13	-$0	0.0%	$8,175 (vs do-nothing +$2,415)
$92	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.00	4/12	$3,000	$3,080	46%	65%	$-277	-$0	0.0%	$6,540 (vs do-nothing +$780)
$91.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.40	6/12	$2,880	$2,940	45%	63%	$-745	-$0	0.0%	$7,170 (vs do-nothing +$1,410)
$91	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.20	7/12	$3,055	$3,105	44%	63%	$-552	-$0	0.0%	$7,965 (vs do-nothing +$2,205)
$91.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.20	4/12	$3,300	$3,380	43%	63%	$-413	-$0	0.0%	$6,620 (vs do-nothing +$860)
$91	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.15	7/12	$3,010	$3,060	42%	60%	$-1,632	-$0	0.0%	$7,230 (vs do-nothing +$1,470)
$91	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.50	4/12	$3,750	$3,830	39%	61%	$-430	-$0	0.0%	$6,740 (vs do-nothing +$980)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39