FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $63.67

BE SS: $114.00  |  CC-SS: $116.87  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-31 03:19

INTC @ $63.67   UNDERWATER $50.33 (44.1% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $114.00  |  CC-SS: $116.87 (banked floor $105.66)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)
SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)
HP: $35 exp 2026-12-18 (entry $0.106/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$47,000(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref$3,482/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$43/mo
Unrealized P&L$-29,010fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,741/mo
HEDGE COVER
$43/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$3,482/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.2 mo to earn back $14,500
ML VELOCITY
13.5 mo to earn back $47,000
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $116.87 (probe: $117C 14d) brings only $11/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
๐Ÿฆ CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$6,066
Hole (after banked)
$22,944
was $29,010 ยท 21% earned back
Cycles closed
40
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$116.87 → $105.66
โš  ASSIGNMENT recorded: 5x $96C 20260904 on 2026-09-08. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.
? 7 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (40) and event log · CLOSED 29 · UNKNOWN 7 · EXPIRED 3 · ASSIGNED 1 · updated 2026-10-31 03:15
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED5x $100C 23 Oct 2026$0.48$2402026-10-212026-10-22$0.04$220U13190865execution
CLOSED5x $101C 23 Oct 2026$0.73$3652026-10-202026-10-21$0.15$290U13190865execution
EXPIRED5x $105C 14 Oct 2026$0.55$2752026-10-132026-10-15$0.00$275U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $114C 14 Oct 2026$0.95$952026-10-092026-10-13$0.03$92U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $114C 14 Oct 2026$0.95$952026-10-092026-10-13$0.03$92U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $114C 14 Oct 2026$0.95$952026-10-092026-10-13$0.03$92U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $114C 14 Oct 2026$0.95$952026-10-092026-10-13$0.03$92U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $114C 14 Oct 2026$0.95$952026-10-092026-10-13$0.03$92U13190865execution
CLOSED4x $123C 16 Oct 2026$1.38$5532026-10-072026-10-09$0.38$401U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $123C 16 Oct 2026$1.38$1382026-10-072026-10-09$0.38$100U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $133C 23 Oct 2026$2.34$2342026-10-062026-10-07$1.54$80U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $133C 23 Oct 2026$2.34$2342026-10-062026-10-07$1.54$80U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $133C 23 Oct 2026$2.34$2342026-10-062026-10-07$1.52$82U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $133C 23 Oct 2026$2.34$2342026-10-062026-10-07$1.52$82U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $133C 23 Oct 2026$2.34$2342026-10-062026-10-07$1.54$80U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $138C 23 Oct 2026$2.81$2812026-10-022026-10-06$1.64$117U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $138C 23 Oct 2026$2.81$2812026-10-022026-10-06$1.64$117U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $138C 23 Oct 2026$2.81$2812026-10-022026-10-06$1.65$116U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $138C 23 Oct 2026$2.81$2812026-10-022026-10-06$1.64$117U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $138C 23 Oct 2026$2.81$2812026-10-022026-10-06$1.64$117U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $160C 23 Oct 2026$2.09$1,0442026-09-232026-10-02$2.09$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $130C 16 Oct 2026$2.73$1,3672026-09-182026-09-23$2.73$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $116C 2 Oct 2026$2.98$1,4922026-09-092026-09-18$2.98$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $103C 11 Sep 2026$0.74$3722026-09-082026-09-09$0.74$0U13190865snapshot
ASSIGNED5x $96C 4 Sep 2026$0.52$2592026-09-012026-09-08$0.00$259U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $130C 18 Sep 2026$2.91$1,4562026-08-142026-09-01$2.91$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $106C 14 Aug 2026$0.83$4152026-08-112026-08-14$0.83$0U13190865execution
EXPIRED5x $108C 7 Aug 2026$0.71$3532026-08-032026-08-10$0.00$353U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $110C 31 Jul 2026$1.30$6482026-07-272026-08-03$0.00$648U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $116C 24 Jul 2026$1.62$1622026-07-182026-07-23$1.89$-27U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $116C 24 Jul 2026$1.62$3242026-07-182026-07-23$1.89$-54U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $116C 24 Jul 2026$1.62$1622026-07-182026-07-23$1.89$-27U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $116C 24 Jul 2026$1.62$1622026-07-182026-07-23$1.89$-27U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $121C 24 Jul 2026$3.00$3002026-07-142026-07-18$1.11$189U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $121C 24 Jul 2026$3.00$3002026-07-142026-07-18$1.11$189U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $121C 24 Jul 2026$3.00$3002026-07-142026-07-18$1.10$190U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $121C 24 Jul 2026$3.00$3002026-07-142026-07-18$1.11$189U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $121C 24 Jul 2026$3.00$3002026-07-142026-07-18$1.11$189U13190865execution
UNKNOWN5x $130C 15 Jul 2026$0.99$4962026-07-102026-07-14$0.99$0U13190865snapshot
CLOSED5x $140C 10 Jul 2026$2.60$1,3012026-07-022026-07-07$0.08$1,261U13190865seed
Event log
2026-10-22 CLOSED 5x $100C 20261023: banked $220
2026-10-21 SOLD 5x $100C 20261023 @ $0.48 (new leg)
2026-10-21 CLOSED 5x $101C 20261023: banked $290
2026-10-20 SOLD 5x $101C 20261023 @ $0.73 (new leg)
2026-10-15 BOT 5x $105C 20261014 @ $0.00 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $105C: banked $275
2026-10-13 CLOSED 1x $114C 20261014: banked $92
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $114C: banked $92 (1 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $114C: banked $92 (2 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $114C: banked $92 (3 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $114C: banked $92 (4 remain)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $105C 20261014 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $105C 20261014 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 4)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $105C 20261014 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $105C 20261014 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $105C 20261014 @ $0.55 (new leg)
2026-10-09 CLOSED 4x $123C 20261016: banked $401
2026-10-09 SOLD 4x $114C 20261014 @ $0.95 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-09 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $123C: banked $100 (4 remain)
2026-10-09 SOLD 1x $114C 20261014 @ $0.95 (new leg)
2026-10-07 BOT 2x $131C 20261016 @ $0.56 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-07 BOT 2x $131C 20261016 @ $0.56 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-07 SOLD 2x $123C 20261016 @ $1.38 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-07 SOLD 2x $123C 20261016 @ $1.38 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-07 BOT 1x $131C 20261016 @ $0.57 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-07 SOLD 1x $123C 20261016 @ $1.39 (new leg)
2026-10-07 CLOSED 1x $133C 20261023: banked $80
2026-10-07 SLD 1x $131C 20261016 @ $0.57 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-07 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $133C: banked $80 (1 remain)
2026-10-07 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $133C: banked $82 (2 remain)
2026-10-07 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $133C: banked $82 (3 remain)
2026-10-07 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $133C: banked $80 (4 remain)
2026-10-07 SLD 1x $131C 20261016 @ $0.57 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-07 SLD 1x $131C 20261016 @ $0.55 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-07 SLD 1x $131C 20261016 @ $0.55 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-07 SLD 1x $131C 20261016 @ $0.57 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-06 CLOSED 1x $138C 20261023: banked $117
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $138C: banked $117 (1 remain)
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $138C: banked $117 (2 remain)
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $138C: banked $116 (3 remain)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYOVERSOLD ยท %B -9 (live) ยท RSI 38 ยท MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) ยท RSI 26 ยท %B -10 ยท hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $102.43 (+61%) ยท daily UBB $118.75 ยท 1-wk expected move ยฑ$6 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: ๐ŸŽฏ or ๐Ÿ’Ž at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
โš  Next earnings 2027-01-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $69 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,741/mo); it brings $1,971/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 ร— $66/7d for $3,707/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 ร— $117/14d (99+% survival, $11/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $23,475 (162% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $114, recoverable in 6.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-29,020 and cuts bleed by $43/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $69, 79% survival, $1,971/mo (E[net] $578/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆6 Nov 2026 · 7d5 × $6979%$1,971$578
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $460 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $1,061 to close and taking $514 back from the best priced door (net cash $547) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 7d · E[net] $578/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

๐ŸŽฏ Engine pick: sell 5 ร— $69 (50% normal), 79% survival, breach 21%, $1,971/mo.
โš–๏ธ Worth a safer step: the $71 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 21% โ†’ 14%) for $707/mo less (36% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (โ‰ˆ1ฯƒ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $71 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect INTC to stay flat-to-down near term.
INTC  spot $63.67 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸cover hedge5 × $946 Nov7d47.6%99%hist 95%1%hist 4%+0pp$15$64-$1,907$11,420
Sell 5 ร— $94 47.6% OTM over spot $63.67 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid)
= $15 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $64/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $94)
99%
Breach risk
1%
POP (stays โ‰ค $94.05)
99%
EV / mo
+$50
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+0pp
40% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$9/mo
median; plan ~$6/mo after 68% keep · $32 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.4], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
0%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,431
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$95 @ 70% POP
57% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.09/sh now โ†’ $2.89 mid-life โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.86/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9413 Nov 202610d left+$0.24/sh+$118
cycle +$133
67%
surv 52%
-$11,513 NOT
cap gain +$17,497
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9413 Nov 202610d left+$0.08/sh+$42
cycle +$57
68%
surv 53%
-$11,400 NOT
cap gain +$17,610
Max even-money escape in the band~$9520 Nov 202618d left+$0.31/sh+$154
cycle +$169
70%
surv 57%
-$10,716 NOT
cap gain +$18,294
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$64/mo
vs 50% target ($1,741/mo)-96%
vs normal income ($3,482/mo)2% covered
Net income (after hedge)$21/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $94 is $23 below CC-SS $116.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$11,420
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($14,500)78.8%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($47,000)24.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-29,018
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $94.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $93.06Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$93-94.05
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $94.05
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$94.00 (5.0ฯƒ)$15$-11,631+$17,379+$10
+2.5%$96.35 (5.4ฯƒ)$-1,160$-11,461+$17,549-$1,165
+5%$98.70 (5.8ฯƒ)$-2,335$-11,290+$17,720-$2,340
SS (= V-bounce)$114.00 (8.4ฯƒ)$-9,985$-10,181+$18,829-$9,990
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $116.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,010
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,457
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $94): -$11,420
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,973 (+$19,037 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $17 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,990, the opportunity cost of earning $64/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $102.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,200, position total $-11,020 (+$17,990 vs today)
▸๐Ÿ›ก safe yield5 × $736 Nov7d14.7%90%hist 95%20%hist 13%+3pp$185$793-$1,179$21,750
Sell 5 ร— $73 14.7% OTM over spot $63.67 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.39 mid)
= $185 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $793/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $73)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays โ‰ค $73.39)
91%
EV / mo
+$370
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
36% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.5/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$477/mo
median; plan ~$324/mo after 68% keep · $3,513 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [1.8-5.9], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$938
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$79 @ 80% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.17/sh now โ†’ $2.25 mid-life (likely $2.09โ€“$3.37) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 417 simulated challenges: the $73 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $75 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$7313 Nov 202610d left+$0.84/sh+$419
cycle +$604
[+$365โ€ฆ+$646] ยท 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$23,064 NOT
cap gain +$5,946
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$7420 Nov 202618d left+$0.96/sh+$480
cycle +$665
[+$364โ€ฆ+$685] ยท 98% credit
70%
surv 58%
-$22,242 NOT
cap gain +$6,768
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$7413 Nov 202610d left+$0.22/sh+$110
cycle +$295
[-$7โ€ฆ+$263] ยท 73% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$22,612 NOT
cap gain +$6,398
Max even-money escape in the band~$7720 Nov 202618d left+$0.01/sh+$5
cycle +$190
[-$197โ€ฆ+$166] ยท 45% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$21,286 NOT
cap gain +$7,724
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$7927 Nov 202624d left-$0.34/sh-$168
cycle +$17
[-$442โ€ฆ-$12] ยท 24% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$20,028 NOT
cap gain +$8,982
budget: banked $185 debit $168 (91% used โ‰ˆ 0.9 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$17 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $1,193/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$793/mo
vs 50% target ($1,741/mo)-54%
vs normal income ($3,482/mo)23% covered
Net income (after hedge)$750/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $73 is $44 below CC-SS $116.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$21,750
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($14,500)150.0%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($47,000)46.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)6.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-29,020
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $73.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $73)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $72.27Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$72-73.39
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $73.39
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$73.00 (1.6ฯƒ)$185$-23,484+$5,526+$180
+2.5%$74.82 (1.9ฯƒ)$-727$-23,351+$5,659-$732
+5%$76.65 (2.2ฯƒ)$-1,640$-23,219+$5,791-$1,645
SS (= V-bounce)$114.00 (8.4ฯƒ)$-20,315$-20,511+$8,499-$20,320
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $116.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,010
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,457
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $73): -$21,750
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,303 (+$8,707 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $17 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,320, the opportunity cost of earning $793/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $102.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,530, position total $-21,350 (+$7,660 vs today)
▸33% normal ← lean5 × $716 Nov7d11.5%86%hist 86%29%hist 23%+6pp$295$1,264-$707$22,640
Sell 5 ร— $71 11.5% OTM over spot $63.67 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid)
= $295 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $1,264/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $71)
86%
Breach risk
14%
POP (stays โ‰ค $71.61)
87%
EV / mo
+$511
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+6pp
40% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$661/mo
median; plan ~$450/mo after 68% keep · $5,012 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.1-5.5], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
20%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$797
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$77 @ 80% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.09/sh now โ†’ $2.18 mid-life (likely $2.10โ€“$3.40) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 614 simulated challenges: the $71 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $73 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$7113 Nov 202610d left+$0.88/sh+$438
cycle +$733
[+$367โ€ฆ+$615] ยท 100% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$24,080 NOT
cap gain +$4,930
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$7220 Nov 202618d left+$1.00/sh+$498
cycle +$793
[+$354โ€ฆ+$680] ยท 99% credit
70%
surv 58%
-$23,259 NOT
cap gain +$5,751
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$7213 Nov 202610d left+$0.26/sh+$129
cycle +$424
[-$7โ€ฆ+$273] ยท 73% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$23,628 NOT
cap gain +$5,382
Max even-money escape in the band~$7520 Nov 202618d left+$0.05/sh+$25
cycle +$320
[-$201โ€ฆ+$161] ยท 43% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$22,301 NOT
cap gain +$6,709
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$7727 Nov 202624d left-$0.29/sh-$145
cycle +$150
[-$444โ€ฆ-$19] ยท 23% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$21,040 NOT
cap gain +$7,970
budget: banked $295 debit $145 (49% used โ‰ˆ 0.5 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$150 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $1,183/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,264/mo
vs 50% target ($1,741/mo)-27%
vs normal income ($3,482/mo)36% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,221/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $71 is $46 below CC-SS $116.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$22,640
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($14,500)156.1%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($47,000)48.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)6.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-29,018
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $71.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $71)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $70.29Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$70-71.61
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $71.61
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$71.00 (1.2ฯƒ)$295$-24,519+$4,491+$290
+2.5%$72.77 (1.5ฯƒ)$-592$-24,390+$4,620-$597
+5%$74.55 (1.8ฯƒ)$-1,480$-24,261+$4,749-$1,485
SS (= V-bounce)$114.00 (8.4ฯƒ)$-21,205$-21,401+$7,609-$21,210
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $116.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,010
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,457
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $71): -$22,640
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,193 (+$7,817 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $17 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,210, the opportunity cost of earning $1,264/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $102.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,420, position total $-22,240 (+$6,770 vs today)
▸๐ŸŽฏ 50% normal5 × $696 Nov7d8.4%79%hist 83%43%hist 40%+8pp$460$1,971—$23,475
Sell 5 ร— $69 8.4% OTM over spot $63.67 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.94 mid)
= $460 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $1,971/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $69)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays โ‰ค $69.94)
82%
EV / mo
+$640
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+8pp
40% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.5/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$882/mo
median; plan ~$600/mo after 68% keep · $6,784 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.2-5.6], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
32%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$601
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$75 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.00/sh now โ†’ $2.12 mid-life (likely $2.11โ€“$3.41) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 969 simulated challenges: the $69 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $70 (overshoots $1.49). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$6913 Nov 202610d left+$0.91/sh+$455
cycle +$915
[+$338โ€ฆ+$589] ยท 100% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$25,043 NOT
cap gain +$3,967
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$7020 Nov 202618d left+$1.03/sh+$514
cycle +$974
[+$330โ€ฆ+$654] ยท 99% credit
70%
surv 58%
-$24,223 NOT
cap gain +$4,787
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$7013 Nov 202610d left+$0.29/sh+$147
cycle +$607
[-$25โ€ฆ+$245] ยท 69% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$24,590 NOT
cap gain +$4,420
Max even-money escape in the band~$7320 Nov 202618d left+$0.09/sh+$43
cycle +$503
[-$227โ€ฆ+$122] ยท 37% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$23,263 NOT
cap gain +$5,747
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$7520 Nov 202618d left-$0.61/sh-$307
cycle +$153
[-$658โ€ฆ-$272] ยท 8% credit
80%
surv 76%
-$22,182 NOT
cap gain +$6,828
budget: banked $460 debit $307 (67% used โ‰ˆ 0.7 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$153 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $1,256/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,971/mo
vs 50% target ($1,741/mo)+13%
vs normal income ($3,482/mo)57% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,929/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $69 is $48 below CC-SS $116.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$23,475
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($14,500)161.9%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($47,000)49.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)6.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-29,020
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $69.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $69)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $68.31Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$68-69.94
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $69.94
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$69.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$460$-25,499+$3,511+$455
+2.5%$70.72 (1.2ฯƒ)$-402$-25,374+$3,636-$407
+5%$72.45 (1.5ฯƒ)$-1,265$-25,248+$3,762-$1,270
SS (= V-bounce)$114.00 (8.4ฯƒ)$-22,040$-22,236+$6,774-$22,045
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $116.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,010
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,457
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $69): -$23,475
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,028 (+$6,982 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $17 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,045, the opportunity cost of earning $1,971/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $102.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,255, position total $-23,075 (+$5,935 vs today)
▸100% normal5 × $666 Nov7d3.7%65%hist 66%72%hist 68%+11pp$865$3,707+$1,736$24,570
Sell 5 ร— $66 3.7% OTM over spot $63.67 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $1.77 mid)
= $865 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $3,707/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $66)
65%
Breach risk
35%
POP (stays โ‰ค $67.77)
74%
EV / mo
+$804
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+11pp
44% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~6.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,235/mo
median; plan ~$840/mo after 68% keep · $8,733 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [1.9-5.7], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
58%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$150
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$75 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.87/sh now โ†’ $2.03 mid-life (likely $2.52โ€“$3.68) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,735 simulated challenges: the $66 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $68 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$6613 Nov 202610d left+$0.96/sh+$478
cycle +$1,343
[+$311โ€ฆ+$457] ยท 100% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$26,333 NOT
cap gain +$2,677
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$6720 Nov 202618d left+$1.07/sh+$535
cycle +$1,400
[+$282โ€ฆ+$478] ยท 98% credit
70%
surv 58%
-$25,515 NOT
cap gain +$3,495
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$6713 Nov 202610d left+$0.34/sh+$171
cycle +$1,036
[-$57โ€ฆ+$111] ยท 57% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$25,879 NOT
cap gain +$3,131
Max even-money escape in the band~$7020 Nov 202618d left+$0.13/sh+$66
cycle +$931
[-$290โ€ฆ-$40] ยท 21% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$24,552 NOT
cap gain +$4,458
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$7513 Nov 202610d left-$1.54/sh-$772
cycle +$93
[-$1,375โ€ฆ-$958]
90%
surv 89%
-$22,242 NOT
cap gain +$6,768
budget: banked $865 debit $772 (89% used โ‰ˆ 0.9 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$93 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $729/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,707/mo
vs 50% target ($1,741/mo)+113%
vs normal income ($3,482/mo)106% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,664/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $66 is $51 below CC-SS $116.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$24,570
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($14,500)169.4%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($47,000)52.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)7.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-29,028
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.73 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $67.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $66)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $65.34Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$65-67.77
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $67.77
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$66.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$865$-26,811+$2,199+$860
+2.5%$67.65 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$40$-26,691+$2,319+$35
+5%$69.30 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$-785$-26,572+$2,438-$790
SS (= V-bounce)$114.00 (8.4ฯƒ)$-23,135$-23,331+$5,679-$23,140
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $116.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,010
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,457
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $66): -$24,570
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,123 (+$5,887 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $17 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,140, the opportunity cost of earning $3,707/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $102.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,350, position total $-24,170 (+$4,840 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on INTC are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ŸŽฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.145 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$30,457 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $17

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$697d6 Nov 2026$0.925/5$460$1,971$1,92979%hist 83%43%hist 40%82%+$640-$23,475161.9%6.7mo$-22,028 (vs do-nothing $-22,045)
$687d6 Nov 2026$1.155/5$575$2,464$2,42175%hist 83%52%hist 44%80%+$718-$23,860164.5%6.9mo$-22,413 (vs do-nothing $-22,430)
$6814d13 Nov 2026$1.715/5$855$1,832$1,78971%hist 83%60%hist 54%78%+$450-$23,580162.6%6.8mo$-22,133 (vs do-nothing $-22,150)
$677d6 Nov 2026$1.425/5$710$3,043$3,00070%hist 83%62%hist 54%77%+$777-$24,225167.1%7.0mo$-22,778 (vs do-nothing $-22,795)
$67.5021d20 Nov 2026$2.455/5$1,225$1,750$1,70768%hist 66%69%hist 54%75%+$418-$23,460161.8%6.7mo$-22,013 (vs do-nothing $-22,030)
$6714d13 Nov 2026$2.005/5$1,000$2,143$2,10067%hist 66%68%hist 54%75%+$461-$23,935165.1%6.9mo$-22,488 (vs do-nothing $-22,505)
$667d6 Nov 2026$1.735/5$865$3,707$3,66465%hist 66%72%hist 68%74%+$804-$24,570169.4%7.1mo$-23,123 (vs do-nothing $-23,140)
$6614d13 Nov 2026$2.375/5$1,185$2,539$2,49663%hist 66%77%hist 68%73%+$506-$24,250167.2%7.0mo$-22,803 (vs do-nothing $-22,820)
$657d6 Nov 2026$2.125/5$1,060$4,543$4,50060%hist 70%84%hist 79%71%+$868-$24,875171.5%7.1mo$-23,428 (vs do-nothing $-23,445)
$6514d13 Nov 2026$2.785/5$1,390$2,979$2,93659%hist 70%87%hist 79%71%+$536-$24,545169.3%7.0mo$-23,098 (vs do-nothing $-23,115)
$6521d20 Nov 2026$3.405/5$1,700$2,429$2,38658%hist 70%89%hist 79%71%+$447-$24,235167.1%7.0mo$-22,788 (vs do-nothing $-22,805)
$6528d27 Nov 2026$3.705/5$1,850$1,982$1,93958%hist 70%89%hist 79%71%+$358-$24,085166.1%6.9mo$-22,638 (vs do-nothing $-22,655)
$6414d13 Nov 2026$3.255/5$1,625$3,482$3,43954%hist 70%97%hist 89%69%+$569-$24,810171.1%7.1mo$-23,363 (vs do-nothing $-23,380)
Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$647d6 Nov 2026$2.585/5$1,290$5,529$5,48654%hist 70%96%hist 89%68%+$934-$25,145173.4%7.2mo$-23,698 (vs do-nothing $-23,715)
$6314d13 Nov 2026$3.705/5$1,850$3,964$3,92150%100%hist 89%66%+$517-$25,085173.0%7.2mo$-23,638 (vs do-nothing $-23,655)
$62.5021d20 Nov 2026$4.605/5$2,300$3,286$3,24349%100%hist 89%66%+$352-$24,885171.6%7.1mo$-23,438 (vs do-nothing $-23,455)
$637d6 Nov 2026$3.055/5$1,525$6,536$6,49348%100%hist 89%66%+$864-$25,410175.2%7.3mo$-23,963 (vs do-nothing $-23,980)
160 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$1057d6 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$21$-2199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$21-$5,93040.9%1.7mo$-4,483 (vs do-nothing $-4,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1007d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$-099+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$43-$8,42558.1%2.4mo$-6,978 (vs do-nothing $-6,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1067d6 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$21$-2199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$18-$5,43037.4%1.6mo$-3,983 (vs do-nothing $-4,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11714d13 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$11$-3299+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$8-$00.0%0.0mo$1,452 (vs do-nothing +$1,435)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11514d13 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$11$-3299+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$8-$9306.4%0.3mo$517 (vs do-nothing +$500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11414d13 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$11$-3299+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$8-$1,4309.9%0.4mo$17 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1047d6 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$21$-2199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$17-$6,43044.3%1.8mo$-4,983 (vs do-nothing $-5,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1037d6 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$21$-2199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$17-$6,93047.8%2.0mo$-5,483 (vs do-nothing $-5,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1017d6 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$21$-2199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$17-$7,93054.7%2.3mo$-6,483 (vs do-nothing $-6,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11214d13 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$11$-3299+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$7-$2,43016.8%0.7mo$-983 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11114d13 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$21$-2199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$17-$2,92520.2%0.8mo$-1,478 (vs do-nothing $-1,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11014d13 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$21$-2199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$17-$3,42523.6%1.0mo$-1,978 (vs do-nothing $-1,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1027d6 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$21$-2199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$14-$7,43051.2%2.1mo$-5,983 (vs do-nothing $-6,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10914d13 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$11$-3299+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$6-$3,93027.1%1.1mo$-2,483 (vs do-nothing $-2,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10814d13 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$21$-2199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$16-$4,42530.5%1.3mo$-2,978 (vs do-nothing $-2,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10714d13 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$11$-3299+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$5-$4,93034.0%1.4mo$-3,483 (vs do-nothing $-3,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$997d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$-099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$34-$8,92561.5%2.6mo$-7,478 (vs do-nothing $-7,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10614d13 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$11$-3299+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$5-$5,43037.4%1.6mo$-3,983 (vs do-nothing $-4,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$987d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$-099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$33-$9,42565.0%2.7mo$-7,978 (vs do-nothing $-7,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10514d13 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$21$-2199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$15-$5,92540.9%1.7mo$-4,478 (vs do-nothing $-4,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11521d20 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$21$-2199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$15-$9206.3%0.3mo$527 (vs do-nothing +$510)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$977d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$-099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$32-$9,92568.4%2.9mo$-8,478 (vs do-nothing $-8,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10414d13 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$21$-2199+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$14-$6,42544.3%1.8mo$-4,978 (vs do-nothing $-4,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11328d27 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$5$-3899%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$0-$1,93013.3%0.6mo$-483 (vs do-nothing $-500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$967d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$-099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$31-$10,42571.9%3.0mo$-8,978 (vs do-nothing $-8,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10314d13 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$21$-2199%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$13-$6,92547.8%2.0mo$-5,478 (vs do-nothing $-5,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11628d27 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$5$-3899%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%$-1-$4303.0%0.1mo$1,017 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$957d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$-099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$29-$10,92575.3%3.1mo$-9,478 (vs do-nothing $-9,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10214d13 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$21$-2199%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$13-$7,42551.2%2.1mo$-5,978 (vs do-nothing $-5,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11228d27 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$5$-3899%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%$-1-$2,43016.8%0.7mo$-983 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11528d27 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$27$-1699%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$20-$9106.3%0.3mo$537 (vs do-nothing +$520)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11021d20 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$36$-799%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$27-$3,41023.5%1.0mo$-1,963 (vs do-nothing $-1,980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$947d6 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$64$2199%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$50-$11,42078.8%3.3mo$-9,973 (vs do-nothing $-9,990)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10114d13 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$43$-099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$33-$7,91554.6%2.3mo$-6,468 (vs do-nothing $-6,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11428d27 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$16$-2799%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$8-$1,4209.8%0.4mo$27 (vs do-nothing +$10)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$937d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$-099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$27-$11,92582.2%3.4mo$-10,478 (vs do-nothing $-10,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10014d13 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$43$-099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$32-$8,41558.0%2.4mo$-6,968 (vs do-nothing $-6,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11128d27 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$16$-2799%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$8-$2,92020.1%0.8mo$-1,473 (vs do-nothing $-1,490)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9914d13 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$43$-099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$31-$8,91561.5%2.6mo$-7,468 (vs do-nothing $-7,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$927d6 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$64$2199%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$47-$12,42085.7%3.6mo$-10,973 (vs do-nothing $-10,990)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9814d13 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$32$-1199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$20-$9,42065.0%2.7mo$-7,973 (vs do-nothing $-7,990)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$917d6 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$64$2199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$45-$12,92089.1%3.7mo$-11,473 (vs do-nothing $-11,490)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10521d20 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$43$-099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$32-$5,90540.7%1.7mo$-4,458 (vs do-nothing $-4,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9714d13 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$21$-2199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$8-$9,92568.4%2.9mo$-8,478 (vs do-nothing $-8,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11028d27 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$38$-599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$27-$3,40023.4%1.0mo$-1,953 (vs do-nothing $-1,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10421d20 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$43$-099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$31-$6,40544.2%1.8mo$-4,958 (vs do-nothing $-4,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$907d6 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$64$2199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$44-$13,42092.5%3.9mo$-11,973 (vs do-nothing $-11,990)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10928d27 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$32$-1199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$21-$3,90526.9%1.1mo$-2,458 (vs do-nothing $-2,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9614d13 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$54$1199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$39-$10,41071.8%3.0mo$-8,963 (vs do-nothing $-8,980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10321d20 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$43$-099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$30-$6,90547.6%2.0mo$-5,458 (vs do-nothing $-5,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10828d27 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$32$-1199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$20-$4,40530.4%1.3mo$-2,958 (vs do-nothing $-2,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$897d6 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$86$4399%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$63-$13,91596.0%4.0mo$-12,468 (vs do-nothing $-12,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10221d20 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$43$-099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$29-$7,40551.1%2.1mo$-5,958 (vs do-nothing $-5,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9514d13 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$54$1199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$38-$10,91075.2%3.1mo$-9,463 (vs do-nothing $-9,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10728d27 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$43$-099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$30-$4,89533.8%1.4mo$-3,448 (vs do-nothing $-3,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$887d6 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$86$4399%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$61-$14,41599.4%4.1mo$-12,968 (vs do-nothing $-12,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10121d20 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$36$-799%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$21-$7,91054.5%2.3mo$-6,463 (vs do-nothing $-6,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10628d27 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$21$-2199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$8-$5,41537.3%1.6mo$-3,968 (vs do-nothing $-3,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9414d13 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$54$1199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$36-$11,41078.7%3.3mo$-9,963 (vs do-nothing $-9,980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10528d27 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$43$-099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$29-$5,89540.7%1.7mo$-4,448 (vs do-nothing $-4,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10021d20 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$57$1499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$41-$8,39557.9%2.4mo$-6,948 (vs do-nothing $-6,965)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$877d6 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$86$4399%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$58-$14,915102.9%4.3mo$-13,468 (vs do-nothing $-13,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9314d13 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$54$1199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$34-$11,91082.1%3.4mo$-10,463 (vs do-nothing $-10,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9921d20 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$50$799%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$33-$8,90061.4%2.6mo$-7,453 (vs do-nothing $-7,470)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10328d27 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$43$-099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$27-$6,89547.5%2.0mo$-5,448 (vs do-nothing $-5,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$867d6 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$107$6499%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$76-$15,410106.3%4.4mo$-13,963 (vs do-nothing $-13,980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9821d20 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$50$799%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$32-$9,40064.8%2.7mo$-7,953 (vs do-nothing $-7,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9214d13 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$43$-099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$22-$12,41585.6%3.6mo$-10,968 (vs do-nothing $-10,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10228d27 Nov 2026$0.095/5$45$48$599%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$31-$7,39051.0%2.1mo$-5,943 (vs do-nothing $-5,960)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97.5021d20 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$57$1499%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$38-$9,64566.5%2.8mo$-8,198 (vs do-nothing $-8,215)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9721d20 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$57$1499%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$37-$9,89568.2%2.8mo$-8,448 (vs do-nothing $-8,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9114d13 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$64$2199%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$41-$12,90589.0%3.7mo$-11,458 (vs do-nothing $-11,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10128d27 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$54$1199%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$36-$7,88554.4%2.3mo$-6,438 (vs do-nothing $-6,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$857d6 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$107$6499%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$72-$15,910109.7%4.6mo$-14,463 (vs do-nothing $-14,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9621d20 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$71$2999%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$50-$10,38571.6%3.0mo$-8,938 (vs do-nothing $-8,955)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10028d27 Nov 2026$0.115/5$55$59$1699%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$40-$8,38057.8%2.4mo$-6,933 (vs do-nothing $-6,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9014d13 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$86$4398%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$59-$13,39592.4%3.8mo$-11,948 (vs do-nothing $-11,965)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$847d6 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$107$6498%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$67-$16,410113.2%4.7mo$-14,963 (vs do-nothing $-14,980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9521d20 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$71$2998%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$48-$10,88575.1%3.1mo$-9,438 (vs do-nothing $-9,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9928d27 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$54$1198%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$33-$8,88561.3%2.6mo$-7,438 (vs do-nothing $-7,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9828d27 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$54$1198%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$31-$9,38564.7%2.7mo$-7,938 (vs do-nothing $-7,955)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8914d13 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$75$3298%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$45-$13,90095.9%4.0mo$-12,453 (vs do-nothing $-12,470)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9421d20 Nov 2026$0.095/5$45$64$2198%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$39-$11,39078.5%3.3mo$-9,943 (vs do-nothing $-9,960)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$837d6 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$129$8698%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$82-$16,905116.6%4.9mo$-15,458 (vs do-nothing $-15,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9728d27 Nov 2026$0.145/5$70$75$3298%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$51-$9,86568.0%2.8mo$-8,418 (vs do-nothing $-8,435)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9321d20 Nov 2026$0.125/5$60$86$4398%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$58-$11,87581.9%3.4mo$-10,428 (vs do-nothing $-10,445)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8814d13 Nov 2026$0.095/5$45$96$5498%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$62-$14,39099.2%4.1mo$-12,943 (vs do-nothing $-12,960)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92.5021d20 Nov 2026$0.125/5$60$86$4398%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$56-$12,12583.6%3.5mo$-10,678 (vs do-nothing $-10,695)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9628d27 Nov 2026$0.135/5$65$70$2798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$43-$10,37071.5%3.0mo$-8,923 (vs do-nothing $-8,940)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9221d20 Nov 2026$0.125/5$60$86$4398%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$55-$12,37585.3%3.6mo$-10,928 (vs do-nothing $-10,945)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$827d6 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$150$10798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$96-$17,400120.0%5.0mo$-15,953 (vs do-nothing $-15,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9528d27 Nov 2026$0.145/5$70$75$3298%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$46-$10,86574.9%3.1mo$-9,418 (vs do-nothing $-9,435)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8714d13 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$107$6498%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$68-$14,885102.7%4.3mo$-13,438 (vs do-nothing $-13,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9121d20 Nov 2026$0.125/5$60$86$4398%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$51-$12,87588.8%3.7mo$-11,428 (vs do-nothing $-11,445)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9428d27 Nov 2026$0.155/5$75$80$3798%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$49-$11,36078.3%3.3mo$-9,913 (vs do-nothing $-9,930)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$817d6 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$171$12998%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$108-$17,895123.4%5.1mo$-16,448 (vs do-nothing $-16,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8614d13 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$107$6498%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$62-$15,385106.1%4.4mo$-13,938 (vs do-nothing $-13,955)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9021d20 Nov 2026$0.155/5$75$107$6498%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$69-$13,36092.1%3.8mo$-11,913 (vs do-nothing $-11,930)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9328d27 Nov 2026$0.175/5$85$91$4898%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$57-$11,85081.7%3.4mo$-10,403 (vs do-nothing $-10,420)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8921d20 Nov 2026$0.125/5$60$86$4397%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$43-$13,87595.7%4.0mo$-12,428 (vs do-nothing $-12,445)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9228d27 Nov 2026$0.195/5$95$102$5997%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$64-$12,34085.1%3.5mo$-10,893 (vs do-nothing $-10,910)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8514d13 Nov 2026$0.115/5$55$118$7597%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$65-$15,880109.5%4.6mo$-14,433 (vs do-nothing $-14,450)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$807d6 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$214$17197%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$138-$18,385126.8%5.3mo$-16,938 (vs do-nothing $-16,955)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9128d27 Nov 2026$0.185/5$90$96$5497%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$55-$12,84588.6%3.7mo$-11,398 (vs do-nothing $-11,415)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8821d20 Nov 2026$0.185/5$90$129$8697%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$81-$14,34598.9%4.1mo$-12,898 (vs do-nothing $-12,915)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8414d13 Nov 2026$0.125/5$60$129$8697%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$67-$16,375112.9%4.7mo$-14,928 (vs do-nothing $-14,945)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87.5021d20 Nov 2026$0.195/5$95$136$9397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$85-$14,590100.6%4.2mo$-13,143 (vs do-nothing $-13,160)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9028d27 Nov 2026$0.235/5$115$123$8097%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$77-$13,32091.9%3.8mo$-11,873 (vs do-nothing $-11,890)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$797d6 Nov 2026$0.115/5$55$236$19397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$142-$18,880130.2%5.4mo$-17,433 (vs do-nothing $-17,450)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8721d20 Nov 2026$0.195/5$95$136$9397%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$82-$14,840102.3%4.3mo$-13,393 (vs do-nothing $-13,410)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8521d20 Nov 2026$0.235/5$115$164$12197%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$115-$15,820109.1%4.5mo$-14,373 (vs do-nothing $-14,390)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8928d27 Nov 2026$0.225/5$110$118$7597%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$67-$13,82595.3%4.0mo$-12,378 (vs do-nothing $-12,395)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8314d13 Nov 2026$0.115/5$55$118$7597%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$45-$16,880116.4%4.8mo$-15,433 (vs do-nothing $-15,450)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8621d20 Nov 2026$0.215/5$105$150$10797%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$89-$15,330105.7%4.4mo$-13,883 (vs do-nothing $-13,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$787d6 Nov 2026$0.145/5$70$300$25796%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$184-$19,365133.5%5.6mo$-17,918 (vs do-nothing $-17,935)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8828d27 Nov 2026$0.255/5$125$134$9196%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$77-$14,31098.7%4.1mo$-12,863 (vs do-nothing $-12,880)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8214d13 Nov 2026$0.165/5$80$171$12996%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$86-$17,355119.7%5.0mo$-15,908 (vs do-nothing $-15,925)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8728d27 Nov 2026$0.265/5$130$139$9696%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$75-$14,805102.1%4.3mo$-13,358 (vs do-nothing $-13,375)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8421d20 Nov 2026$0.265/5$130$186$14396%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$110-$16,305112.4%4.7mo$-14,858 (vs do-nothing $-14,875)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$777d6 Nov 2026$0.165/5$80$343$30096%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$196-$19,855136.9%5.7mo$-18,408 (vs do-nothing $-18,425)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8114d13 Nov 2026$0.205/5$100$214$17196%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$112-$17,835123.0%5.1mo$-16,388 (vs do-nothing $-16,405)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8628d27 Nov 2026$0.295/5$145$155$11296%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$83-$15,290105.4%4.4mo$-13,843 (vs do-nothing $-13,860)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8321d20 Nov 2026$0.285/5$140$200$15795%hist 95%10%hist 4%95%+$110-$16,795115.8%4.8mo$-15,348 (vs do-nothing $-15,365)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$82.5021d20 Nov 2026$0.305/5$150$214$17195%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$122-$17,035117.5%4.9mo$-15,588 (vs do-nothing $-15,605)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8528d27 Nov 2026$0.355/5$175$187$14595%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$105-$15,760108.7%4.5mo$-14,313 (vs do-nothing $-14,330)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8014d13 Nov 2026$0.255/5$125$268$22595%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$145-$18,310126.3%5.3mo$-16,863 (vs do-nothing $-16,880)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8221d20 Nov 2026$0.335/5$165$236$19395%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$138-$17,270119.1%5.0mo$-15,823 (vs do-nothing $-15,840)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$767d6 Nov 2026$0.205/5$100$429$38695%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$241-$20,335140.2%5.8mo$-18,888 (vs do-nothing $-18,905)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8428d27 Nov 2026$0.355/5$175$187$14595%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$94-$16,260112.1%4.7mo$-14,813 (vs do-nothing $-14,830)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7914d13 Nov 2026$0.265/5$130$279$23694%hist 95%12%hist 13%94%+$131-$18,805129.7%5.4mo$-17,358 (vs do-nothing $-17,375)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8121d20 Nov 2026$0.365/5$180$257$21494%hist 95%12%hist 13%94%+$137-$17,755122.4%5.1mo$-16,308 (vs do-nothing $-16,325)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8328d27 Nov 2026$0.395/5$195$209$16694%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$102-$16,740115.4%4.8mo$-15,293 (vs do-nothing $-15,310)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$757d6 Nov 2026$0.255/5$125$536$49394%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$292-$20,810143.5%6.0mo$-19,363 (vs do-nothing $-19,380)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8021d20 Nov 2026$0.435/5$215$307$26493%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$168-$18,220125.7%5.2mo$-16,773 (vs do-nothing $-16,790)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7814d13 Nov 2026$0.325/5$160$343$30093%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$164-$19,275132.9%5.5mo$-17,828 (vs do-nothing $-17,845)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8228d27 Nov 2026$0.435/5$215$230$18793%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$108-$17,220118.8%4.9mo$-15,773 (vs do-nothing $-15,790)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8128d27 Nov 2026$0.515/5$255$273$23092%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$132-$17,680121.9%5.1mo$-16,233 (vs do-nothing $-16,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7714d13 Nov 2026$0.385/5$190$407$36492%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$190-$19,745136.2%5.7mo$-18,298 (vs do-nothing $-18,315)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$747d6 Nov 2026$0.295/5$145$621$57992%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$302-$21,290146.8%6.1mo$-19,843 (vs do-nothing $-19,860)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7921d20 Nov 2026$0.485/5$240$343$30092%hist 95%17%hist 13%93%+$161-$18,695128.9%5.4mo$-17,248 (vs do-nothing $-17,265)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8028d27 Nov 2026$0.585/5$290$311$26892%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$148-$18,145125.1%5.2mo$-16,698 (vs do-nothing $-16,715)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7821d20 Nov 2026$0.555/5$275$393$35091%hist 95%19%hist 13%92%+$186-$19,160132.1%5.5mo$-17,713 (vs do-nothing $-17,730)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7614d13 Nov 2026$0.445/5$220$471$42991%hist 95%19%hist 13%92%+$206-$20,215139.4%5.8mo$-18,768 (vs do-nothing $-18,785)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$77.5021d20 Nov 2026$0.595/5$295$421$37990%hist 95%20%hist 13%91%+$196-$19,390133.7%5.6mo$-17,943 (vs do-nothing $-17,960)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$737d6 Nov 2026$0.375/5$185$793$75090%hist 95%20%hist 13%91%+$370-$21,750150.0%6.2mo$-20,303 (vs do-nothing $-20,320)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7514d13 Nov 2026$0.515/5$255$546$50489%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$221-$20,680142.6%5.9mo$-19,233 (vs do-nothing $-19,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$727d6 Nov 2026$0.475/5$235$1,007$96488%hist 86%24%hist 23%89%+$443-$22,200153.1%6.4mo$-20,753 (vs do-nothing $-20,770)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7414d13 Nov 2026$0.625/5$310$664$62188%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$264-$21,125145.7%6.1mo$-19,678 (vs do-nothing $-19,695)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7521d20 Nov 2026$0.835/5$415$593$55087%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$241-$20,520141.5%5.9mo$-19,073 (vs do-nothing $-19,090)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7314d13 Nov 2026$0.735/5$365$782$73986%hist 86%29%hist 23%87%+$288-$21,570148.8%6.2mo$-20,123 (vs do-nothing $-20,140)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$717d6 Nov 2026$0.595/5$295$1,264$1,22186%hist 86%29%hist 23%87%+$511-$22,640156.1%6.5mo$-21,193 (vs do-nothing $-21,210)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7528d27 Nov 2026$1.075/5$535$573$53085%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$224-$20,400140.7%5.9mo$-18,953 (vs do-nothing $-18,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7214d13 Nov 2026$0.875/5$435$932$88984%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$324-$22,000151.7%6.3mo$-20,553 (vs do-nothing $-20,570)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$707d6 Nov 2026$0.735/5$365$1,564$1,52183%hist 86%36%hist 30%85%+$560-$23,070159.1%6.6mo$-21,623 (vs do-nothing $-21,640)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$72.5021d20 Nov 2026$1.195/5$595$850$80782%hist 86%38%hist 30%85%+$296-$21,590148.9%6.2mo$-20,143 (vs do-nothing $-20,160)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7114d13 Nov 2026$1.045/5$520$1,114$1,07181%hist 86%40%hist 30%84%+$365-$22,415154.6%6.4mo$-20,968 (vs do-nothing $-20,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7014d13 Nov 2026$1.255/5$625$1,339$1,29678%hist 83%46%hist 40%82%+$417-$22,810157.3%6.6mo$-21,363 (vs do-nothing $-21,380)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7021d20 Nov 2026$1.735/5$865$1,236$1,19375%hist 83%52%hist 44%80%+$367-$22,570155.7%6.5mo$-21,123 (vs do-nothing $-21,140)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6914d13 Nov 2026$1.455/5$725$1,554$1,51175%hist 83%52%hist 44%80%+$422-$23,210160.1%6.7mo$-21,763 (vs do-nothing $-21,780)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7028d27 Nov 2026$2.055/5$1,025$1,098$1,05574%hist 83%54%hist 44%80%+$326-$22,410154.5%6.4mo$-20,963 (vs do-nothing $-20,980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-31 03:19