FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $92.98

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.84 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $92.98 UNDERWATER $21.02 (18.4% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.84 (banked floor $111.08) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $0.283/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$4,714/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$21/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-12,758	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,357/mo

HEDGE COVER
$21/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$4,714/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.1 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
10.0 mo to earn back $47,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $116.84 (probe: $115C 14d) brings only $300/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$3,072

Hole (after banked)

$9,685

was $12,758 · 24% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$259

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$116.84 → $111.08

? 3 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $96C 4 Sep 2026	U13190865	$0.52	$259	2026-09-01

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 28 (live) · RSI 51 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 47 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $135.73 (+46%) · daily UBB $104.28 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-22: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $98 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 76%, breach 24%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,357/mo); it brings $2,786/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $95/7d for $4,843/mo, but breach risk rises to 38% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $116/7d (99+% survival, $21/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $8,771 (60% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $114, recoverable in 1.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-12,778 and cuts bleed by $21/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 11 Sep 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $98, 76% survival, $2,786/mo (E[net] $399/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	11 Sep 2026 · 7d	5 × $98	76%	$2,786	$399

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $650 with probability 63%; on the 37% touch you roll, paying $1,215 to close and taking $371 back from the best priced door (net cash $845) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 11 Sep 2026 · 7d · E[net] $399/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $98 (50% normal), 76% survival, breach 24%, $2,786/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $101 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 24% → 13%) for $1,221/mo less (44% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $101 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect INTC to stay flat-to-down near term.

INTC spot $92.98 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $116

11 Sep

24.8%

99+%hist 96%

0%hist 2%

-3pp

$21

-$2,764

$416

Sell 5 × $116 24.8% OTM over spot $92.98 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.03 mid)

= $5 credit for the 7d cycle → $21/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $116)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $116.03)

99+%

EV / mo

+$20

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-3pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-5/mo

median; plan ~$-3/mo after 68% keep · $-16 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,434

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$124 @ 80% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.07/sh now → $2.88 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$116	14 Sep 2026	6d left	-$0.82/sh	-$412 cycle -$407	64% surv 51%	-$549 NOT cap gain +$12,208
Max even-money escape in the band	~$124	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.03/sh	+$14 cycle +$19	80% surv 74%	+$4,272 SAFE cap gain +$17,029

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$21/mo
vs 50% target ($2,357/mo)	-99%
vs normal income ($4,714/mo)	0% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$0/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $116 is $1 below CC-SS $116.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$416
… as % of IC ($14,500)	2.9%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	0.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-12,770

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $116.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $116)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $114.84	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $115-116.03	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $116.03	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$116.00 (3.2σ)	$5	$-138	+$12,620	+$735
+2.5%	$118.90 (3.7σ)	$-1,445	$2	+$12,759	+$735
+5%	$121.80 (4.1σ)	$-2,895	$141	+$12,898	+$735

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $116.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,758

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,076

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $116): -$416

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-97 (+$12,660 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-832 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$735, the opportunity cost of earning $21/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $103

11 Sep

10.8%

92%hist 96%

17%hist 13%

+2pp

$250

$1,071

-$1,714

$6,671

Sell 5 × $103 10.8% OTM over spot $92.98 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid)

= $250 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,071/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $103)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $103.53)

93%

EV / mo

+$737

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$752/mo

median; plan ~$511/mo after 68% keep · $2,121 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-2.9], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,027

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$114 @ 84% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.55 mid-life (likely $2.12–$3.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 341 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $105 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$111	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.36/sh	+$180 cycle +$430 [-$82…+$399] · 67% credit	80% surv 74%	-$2,442 NOT cap gain +$10,316
Max even-money escape in the band	~$112	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.12/sh	+$61 cycle +$311 [-$227…+$278] · 51% credit	81% surv 76%	-$2,013 NOT cap gain +$10,744
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$114	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.31/sh	-$157 cycle +$93 [-$483…+$49] · 28% credit	84% surv 80%	-$1,134 NOT cap gain +$11,623
budget: banked $250 debit $157 (63% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$93 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,401/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$103	14 Sep 2026	6d left	-$0.49/sh	-$245 cycle +$5 [-$422…-$39] · 23% credit	64% surv 51%	-$7,261 NOT cap gain +$5,496

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,071/mo
vs 50% target ($2,357/mo)	-55%
vs normal income ($4,714/mo)	23% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,050/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $103 is $14 below CC-SS $116.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,671
… as % of IC ($14,500)	46.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	14.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-12,772

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $103.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $101.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $102-103.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $103.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$103.00 (1.4σ)	$250	$-7,017	+$5,741	-$20
+2.5%	$105.57 (1.8σ)	$-1,037	$-6,893	+$5,865	-$1,307
+5%	$108.15 (2.1σ)	$-2,325	$-6,769	+$5,988	-$2,595
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.0σ)	$-5,250	$-6,489	+$6,269	-$5,520

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $116.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,758

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,076

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$6,671

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,352 (+$6,405 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-832 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,520, the opportunity cost of earning $1,071/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $101

11 Sep

8.6%

87%hist 86%

27%hist 26%

+7pp

$365

$1,564

-$1,221

$7,556

Sell 5 × $101 8.6% OTM over spot $92.98 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.77 mid)

= $365 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,564/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $101)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $101.77)

89%

EV / mo

+$917

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

75% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$988/mo

median; plan ~$672/mo after 68% keep · $3,617 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.8-4.2], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

19%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$888

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$113 @ 85% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $3.54/sh now → $2.51 mid-life (likely $2.33–$4.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 584 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $103 (overshoots $1.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$108	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.69/sh	+$347 cycle +$712 [-$0…+$494] · 75% credit	79% surv 72%	-$3,804 NOT cap gain +$8,953
Max even-money escape in the band	~$110	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.16/sh	+$80 cycle +$445 [-$314…+$212] · 43% credit	81% surv 76%	-$2,975 NOT cap gain +$9,783
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$101	14 Sep 2026	6d left	-$0.44/sh	-$222 cycle +$143 [-$484…-$94] · 17% credit	64% surv 51%	-$8,219 NOT cap gain +$4,538
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$113	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.48/sh	-$239 cycle +$126 [-$701…-$127] · 16% credit	85% surv 82%	-$1,649 NOT cap gain +$11,108
budget: banked $365 debit $239 (65% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$126 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,268/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,564/mo
vs 50% target ($2,357/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($4,714/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,543/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $101 is $16 below CC-SS $116.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,556
… as % of IC ($14,500)	52.1%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	16.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-12,775

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.73 collected) or spot ≥ $101.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.99	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $100-101.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $101.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$101.00 (1.1σ)	$365	$-7,998	+$4,760	+$95
+2.5%	$103.52 (1.5σ)	$-897	$-7,876	+$4,881	-$1,167
+5%	$106.05 (1.8σ)	$-2,160	$-7,755	+$5,002	-$2,430
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.0σ)	$-6,135	$-7,374	+$5,384	-$6,405

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $116.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,758

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,076

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $101): -$7,556

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,237 (+$5,520 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-832 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,405, the opportunity cost of earning $1,564/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $98

11 Sep

5.4%

76%hist 84%

49%hist 38%

+7pp

$650

$2,786

—

$8,771

Sell 5 × $98 5.4% OTM over spot $92.98 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.34 mid)

= $650 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,786/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $98)

76%

Breach risk

24%

POP (stays ≤ $99.34)

81%

EV / mo

+$1,104

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

75% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,413/mo

median; plan ~$961/mo after 68% keep · $4,287 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.6], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

37%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$565

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$115 @ 91% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $3.44/sh now → $2.43 mid-life (likely $2.68–$4.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,118 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $100 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$105	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.74/sh	+$371 cycle +$1,021 [-$16…+$352] · 73% credit	79% surv 72%	-$5,139 NOT cap gain +$7,619
Max even-money escape in the band	~$107	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$105 cycle +$755 [-$328…+$59] · 32% credit	81% surv 76%	-$4,308 NOT cap gain +$8,449
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	14 Sep 2026	6d left	-$0.38/sh	-$189 cycle +$461 [-$499…-$197] · 10% credit	64% surv 51%	-$9,545 NOT cap gain +$3,212
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$115	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$1.13/sh	-$566 cycle +$84 [-$1,150…-$656] · 1% credit	91% surv 89%	-$596 NOT cap gain +$12,162
budget: banked $650 debit $566 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$84 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $812/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,786/mo
vs 50% target ($2,357/mo)	+18%
vs normal income ($4,714/mo)	59% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,764/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $98 is $19 below CC-SS $116.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,771
… as % of IC ($14,500)	60.5%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	18.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-12,778

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $99.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $97.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $97-99.34	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $99.34	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$98.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$650	$-9,357	+$3,401	+$380
+2.5%	$100.45 (1.1σ)	$-575	$-9,239	+$3,519	-$845
+5%	$102.90 (1.4σ)	$-1,800	$-9,121	+$3,636	-$2,070
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.0σ)	$-7,350	$-8,589	+$4,169	-$7,620

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $116.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,758

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,076

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$8,771

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,452 (+$4,305 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-832 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,620, the opportunity cost of earning $2,786/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $95

11 Sep

2.2%

62%hist 66%

77%hist 65%

+15pp

$1,130

$4,843

+$2,057

$9,791

Sell 5 × $95 2.2% OTM over spot $92.98 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $2.29 mid)

= $1,130 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,843/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

62%

Breach risk

38%

POP (stays ≤ $97.29)

73%

EV / mo

+$1,468

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+15pp

80% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,928/mo

median; plan ~$1,311/mo after 68% keep · $4,435 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

61%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$48

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026)

$112 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $3.33/sh now → $2.36 mid-life (likely $3.02–$4.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,816 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $97 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$102	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.78/sh	+$391 cycle +$1,521 [-$92…+$224] · 64% credit	79% surv 72%	-$6,283 NOT cap gain +$6,475
Max even-money escape in the band	~$105	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.03/sh	+$15 cycle +$1,145 [-$544…-$178] · 12% credit	83% surv 79%	-$5,015 NOT cap gain +$7,743
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	14 Sep 2026	6d left	-$0.31/sh	-$157 cycle +$973 [-$545…-$292] · 6% credit	64% surv 51%	-$10,678 NOT cap gain +$2,080
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$112	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$1.08/sh	-$539 cycle +$591 [-$1,237…-$777] · 0% credit	91% surv 90%	-$1,733 NOT cap gain +$11,025
budget: banked $1,130 debit $539 (48% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$591 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $799/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,843/mo
vs 50% target ($2,357/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($4,714/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,821/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $95 is $22 below CC-SS $116.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,791
… as % of IC ($14,500)	67.5%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	20.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-12,772

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $97.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $104.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $94.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $94-97.29	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $97.29	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$95.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,130	$-10,521	+$2,237	+$860
+2.5%	$97.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-57	$-10,407	+$2,351	-$327
+5%	$99.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,245	$-10,293	+$2,465	-$1,515
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.0σ)	$-8,370	$-9,609	+$3,149	-$8,640

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $116.84, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,758

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,076

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$9,791

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,472 (+$3,285 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-832 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,640, the opportunity cost of earning $4,843/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on INTC are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (38 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 38 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.096 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,076 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-832

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$97	5d	9 Sep 2026	$0.94	5/5	$2,820	$2,799	77%	82%	+$1,264	-$9,451	65.2%	$-9,132 (vs do-nothing $-8,300)
$98	7d	11 Sep 2026	$1.30	5/5	$2,786	$2,764	76%	81%	+$1,104	-$8,771	60.5%	$-8,452 (vs do-nothing $-7,620)
$99	14d	18 Sep 2026	$2.23	5/5	$2,389	$2,368	74%	80%	+$1,003	-$7,806	53.8%	$-7,487 (vs do-nothing $-6,655)
$97	7d	11 Sep 2026	$1.57	4/5	$2,691	$2,747	72%	79%	+$981	-$7,309	50.4%	$-7,220 (vs do-nothing $-6,388)
$96	5d	9 Sep 2026	$1.22	4/5	$2,928	$2,984	72%	79%	+$1,180	-$7,849	54.1%	$-7,760 (vs do-nothing $-6,928)
$98	14d	18 Sep 2026	$2.51	5/5	$2,689	$2,668	71%	78%	+$1,035	-$8,166	56.3%	$-7,847 (vs do-nothing $-7,015)
$97.50	14d	18 Sep 2026	$2.69	5/5	$2,882	$2,861	69%	77%	+$1,079	-$8,326	57.4%	$-8,007 (vs do-nothing $-7,175)
$98	21d	25 Sep 2026	$3.30	5/5	$2,357	$2,336	68%	77%	+$764	-$7,771	53.6%	$-7,452 (vs do-nothing $-6,620)
$96	7d	11 Sep 2026	$1.90	3/5	$2,443	$2,576	67%	76%	+$825	-$5,683	39.2%	$-5,824 (vs do-nothing $-4,992)
$97	14d	18 Sep 2026	$2.83	4/5	$2,426	$2,481	67%	76%	+$856	-$6,805	46.9%	$-6,716 (vs do-nothing $-5,884)
$95	5d	9 Sep 2026	$1.56	3/5	$2,808	$2,941	66%	75%	+$1,000	-$6,085	42.0%	$-6,226 (vs do-nothing $-5,394)
$97	21d	25 Sep 2026	$3.65	5/5	$2,607	$2,586	65%	75%	+$788	-$8,096	55.8%	$-7,777 (vs do-nothing $-6,945)
$97	28d	2 Oct 2026	$4.45	5/5	$2,384	$2,362	64%	74%	+$688	-$7,696	53.1%	$-7,377 (vs do-nothing $-6,545)

Show 25 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$96	14d	18 Sep 2026	$3.15	4/5	$2,700	$2,756	64%	74%	+$851	-$7,077	48.8%	$-6,988 (vs do-nothing $-6,156)
$95	7d	11 Sep 2026	$2.26	3/5	$2,906	$3,039	62%	73%	+$881	-$5,875	40.5%	$-6,016 (vs do-nothing $-5,184)
$96	21d	25 Sep 2026	$4.00	5/5	$2,857	$2,836	62%	73%	+$788	-$8,421	58.1%	$-8,102 (vs do-nothing $-7,270)
$95	10d	14 Sep 2026	$2.52	4/5	$3,024	$3,080	61%	73%	+$793	-$7,729	53.3%	$-7,640 (vs do-nothing $-6,808)
$96	28d	2 Oct 2026	$4.85	5/5	$2,598	$2,577	61%	73%	+$708	-$7,996	55.1%	$-7,677 (vs do-nothing $-6,845)
$95	12d	16 Sep 2026	$2.73	4/5	$2,730	$2,786	61%	72%	+$506	-$7,645	52.7%	$-7,556 (vs do-nothing $-6,724)
$95	14d	18 Sep 2026	$3.55	4/5	$3,043	$3,099	60%	72%	+$785	-$7,317	50.5%	$-7,228 (vs do-nothing $-6,396)
$95	21d	25 Sep 2026	$4.40	4/5	$2,514	$2,570	59%	72%	+$640	-$6,977	48.1%	$-6,888 (vs do-nothing $-6,056)
$94	5d	9 Sep 2026	$1.96	3/5	$3,528	$3,661	59%	72%	+$1,082	-$6,265	43.2%	$-6,406 (vs do-nothing $-5,574)
$95	28d	2 Oct 2026	$5.25	5/5	$2,812	$2,791	59%	72%	+$712	-$8,296	57.2%	$-7,977 (vs do-nothing $-7,145)
$94	7d	11 Sep 2026	$2.67	3/5	$3,433	$3,566	57%	71%	+$922	-$6,052	41.7%	$-6,193 (vs do-nothing $-5,361)
$94	14d	18 Sep 2026	$3.95	3/5	$2,539	$2,672	56%	70%	+$588	-$5,668	39.1%	$-5,809 (vs do-nothing $-4,977)
$94	21d	25 Sep 2026	$4.85	4/5	$2,771	$2,827	56%	70%	+$656	-$7,197	49.6%	$-7,108 (vs do-nothing $-6,276)
$94	28d	2 Oct 2026	$5.70	4/5	$2,443	$2,499	56%	71%	+$580	-$6,857	47.3%	$-6,768 (vs do-nothing $-5,936)
$93	28d	2 Oct 2026	$6.15	4/5	$2,636	$2,691	53%	69%	+$577	-$7,077	48.8%	$-6,988 (vs do-nothing $-6,156)
$93	21d	25 Sep 2026	$5.35	4/5	$3,057	$3,113	53%	69%	+$681	-$7,397	51.0%	$-7,308 (vs do-nothing $-6,476)
$93	14d	18 Sep 2026	$4.40	3/5	$2,829	$2,961	52%	69%	+$589	-$5,833	40.2%	$-5,974 (vs do-nothing $-5,142)
$93	7d	11 Sep 2026	$3.10	2/5	$2,657	$2,867	52%	68%	+$602	-$4,148	28.6%	$-4,520 (vs do-nothing $-3,688)
$93	5d	9 Sep 2026	$2.42	2/5	$2,904	$3,114	51%	69%	+$743	-$4,284	29.5%	$-4,656 (vs do-nothing $-3,824)
$92.50	14d	18 Sep 2026	$4.70	3/5	$3,021	$3,154	50%	68%	+$627	-$5,893	40.6%	$-6,034 (vs do-nothing $-5,202)
$92	28d	2 Oct 2026	$6.65	4/5	$2,850	$2,906	50%	68%	+$581	-$7,277	50.2%	$-7,188 (vs do-nothing $-6,356)
$92	21d	25 Sep 2026	$5.85	3/5	$2,507	$2,640	49%	68%	+$512	-$5,698	39.3%	$-5,839 (vs do-nothing $-5,007)
$92	14d	18 Sep 2026	$4.90	3/5	$3,150	$3,283	48%	67%	+$592	-$5,983	41.3%	$-6,124 (vs do-nothing $-5,292)
$92	7d	11 Sep 2026	$3.60	2/5	$3,086	$3,296	46%	66%	+$589	-$4,248	29.3%	$-4,620 (vs do-nothing $-3,788)
$92	5d	9 Sep 2026	$2.97	2/5	$3,564	$3,774	44%	66%	+$761	-$4,374	30.2%	$-4,746 (vs do-nothing $-3,914)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-04 21:36