5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $114.52 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $47,000 | (ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,573/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $34/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,033 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 5 × $123 | 92% | $3,675 | $1,817 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 5 × $123 | 81% | $3,633 | $850 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $136 | 10 Jul | 2d | 24.5% | 99% | 3% | $4 | $60 | -$3,615 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $136 24.5% OTM over spot $109.27 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.11 mid) = $4 credit for the 2d cycle → $60/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $136) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $136.11) 99% EV / mo +$5 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median · 93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $609 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$711 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $159 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $136 is at/above CC-SS $114.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $136.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $136)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,033 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,771 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $136): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $114): +$895 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-367 (+$3,666 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-596, the opportunity cost of earning $60/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $126 | 10 Jul | 2d | 15.3% | 95% | 11% | $160 | $2,400 | -$1,275 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $126 15.3% OTM over spot $109.27 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.35 mid) = $160 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $126) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $126.35) 95% EV / mo +$1,587 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median · 89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $235 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,495 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $152 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.68/sh now → $3.31 mid-life (likely $3.19–$6.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 133 simulated challenges: the $126 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $130 (overshoots $3.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $126 is at/above CC-SS $114.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $126.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $126)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,033 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,771 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $126): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,491, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $123 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.6% | 92% | 8% | $245 | $3,675 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $123 12.6% OTM over spot $109.27 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.53 mid) = $245 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,675/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $123) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $123.53) 93% EV / mo +$2,156 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 97% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $448 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,371 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $149 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.57/sh now → $3.23 mid-life (likely $3.36–$6.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 230 simulated challenges: the $123 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $127 (overshoots $3.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $123 is at/above CC-SS $114.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $123.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $123)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,033 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,771 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $123): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,491, the opportunity cost of earning $3,675/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $122 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.7% | 91% | 19% | $285 | $4,275 | +$600 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $122 11.7% OTM over spot $109.27 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.61 mid) = $285 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,275/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $122.61) 91% EV / mo +$2,384 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $557 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,318 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $149 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.53/sh now → $3.21 mid-life (likely $3.30–$6.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 295 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $125 (overshoots $3.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $122 is at/above CC-SS $114.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $122.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,033 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,771 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $122): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,491, the opportunity cost of earning $4,275/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $119 | 10 Jul | 2d | 8.9% | 85% | 30% | $470 | $7,050 | +$3,375 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $119 8.9% OTM over spot $109.27 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.98 mid) = $470 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $119) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $119.98) 87% EV / mo +$3,404 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 97% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $814 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,093 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $146 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.42/sh now → $3.13 mid-life (likely $3.46–$6.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 562 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $123 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $119 is at/above CC-SS $114.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $119.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $119)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,033 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,771 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $119): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,491, the opportunity cost of earning $7,050/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $136 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.5% | 93% | 14% | $68 | $227 | -$3,407 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $136 24.5% OTM over spot $109.27 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.74 mid) = $68 credit for the 9d cycle → $227/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $136) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $136.74) 94% EV / mo +$122 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.4] median · 96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $578 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$545 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $146 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.67/sh now → $6.13 mid-life (likely $5.11–$8.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $136 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $140 (overshoots $3.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $136 is at/above CC-SS $114.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $136.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $136)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,033 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,771 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $136): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $114): +$1,193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-69 (+$3,964 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-298, the opportunity cost of earning $227/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $132 | 17 Jul | 9d | 20.8% | 91% | 19% | $485 | $1,617 | -$2,017 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $132 20.8% OTM over spot $109.27 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.04 mid) = $485 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,617/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $132) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $133.04) 91% EV / mo +$788 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median · 91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,492 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $143 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.42/sh now → $5.95 mid-life (likely $5.13–$8.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 434 simulated challenges: the $132 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $136 (overshoots $3.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $132 is at/above CC-SS $114.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $133.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $132)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,033 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,771 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $132): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,491, the opportunity cost of earning $1,617/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $128 | 17 Jul | 9d | 17.1% | 87% | 27% | $695 | $2,317 | -$1,317 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $128 17.1% OTM over spot $109.27 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.45 mid) = $695 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,317/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $128) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $129.45) 88% EV / mo +$998 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.6] median · 92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,192 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $141 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.16/sh now → $5.77 mid-life (likely $5.37–$8.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 583 simulated challenges: the $128 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $132 (overshoots $3.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $128 is at/above CC-SS $114.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $129.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $128)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,033 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,771 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $128): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,491, the opportunity cost of earning $2,317/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $123 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.6% | 81% | 30% | $1,090 | $3,633 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $123 12.6% OTM over spot $109.27 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.27 mid) = $1,090 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,633/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $123) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $125.27) 84% EV / mo +$1,301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median · 90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 96% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,684 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $140 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.84/sh now → $5.55 mid-life (likely $5.99–$8.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 903 simulated challenges: the $123 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $127 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $123 is at/above CC-SS $114.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.18 collected) or spot ≥ $125.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $123)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,033 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,771 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $123): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,491, the opportunity cost of earning $3,633/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $115 | 17 Jul | 9d | 5.2% | 66% | 71% | $2,150 | $7,167 | +$3,533 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $115 5.2% OTM over spot $109.27 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $4.40 mid) = $2,150 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,167/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $119.40) 75% EV / mo +$1,714 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 97% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,148 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$444 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $142 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.33/sh now → $5.19 mid-life (likely $6.63–$9.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,706 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $119 (overshoots $3.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $115 is at/above CC-SS $114.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.07/sh (~25% of the $4.30 collected) or spot ≥ $119.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,033 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,771 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $115): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $229 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,491, the opportunity cost of earning $7,167/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 94 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.055 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,771 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $229
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $123 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 5/5 | $3,675 | $3,641 | 92% | 93% | +$2,156 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,016 (vs do-nothing $-1,246) |
| $122 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 4/5 | $3,420 | $4,261 | 91% | 91% | +$1,907 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-735 (vs do-nothing $-965) |
| $121 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 4/5 | $4,020 | $4,861 | 89% | 90% | +$2,136 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-695 (vs do-nothing $-925) |
| $120 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 3/5 | $3,555 | $5,271 | 87% | 89% | +$1,796 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-428 (vs do-nothing $-658) |
| $119 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 3/5 | $4,230 | $5,946 | 85% | 87% | +$2,043 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-383 (vs do-nothing $-613) |
| $118 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 2/5 | $3,300 | $5,891 | 83% | 86% | +$1,491 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-147 (vs do-nothing $-376) |
| $120 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 5/5 | $3,480 | $3,446 | 83% | 85% | +$1,159 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-681 (vs do-nothing $-911) |
| $130 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 5/5 | $3,328 | $3,294 | 81% | 84% | +$1,095 | -$0 | 0.0% | $514 (vs do-nothing +$284) |
| $123 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.18 | 5/5 | $3,633 | $3,599 | 81% | 84% | +$1,301 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-171 (vs do-nothing $-401) |
| $117 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 2/5 | $3,900 | $6,491 | 80% | 84% | +$1,664 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-107 (vs do-nothing $-336) |
| $129 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/5 | $3,375 | $3,341 | 80% | 83% | +$992 | -$0 | 0.0% | $539 (vs do-nothing +$309) |
| $122 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.39 | 5/5 | $3,983 | $3,949 | 79% | 83% | +$1,376 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-66 (vs do-nothing $-296) |
| $128 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 5/5 | $3,562 | $3,528 | 79% | 83% | +$1,021 | -$0 | 0.0% | $639 (vs do-nothing +$409) |
Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 81.
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $118 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 4/5 | $3,720 | $4,561 | 79% | 82% | +$1,149 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-343 (vs do-nothing $-573) |
| $127 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 5/5 | $3,750 | $3,716 | 78% | 82% | +$1,039 | -$0 | 0.0% | $739 (vs do-nothing +$509) |
| $121 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 4/5 | $3,467 | $4,308 | 78% | 82% | +$1,138 | -$0 | 0.0% | $77 (vs do-nothing $-153) |
| $116 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.52 | 2/5 | $4,560 | $7,151 | 77% | 82% | +$1,806 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-63 (vs do-nothing $-292) |
| $126 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 5/5 | $3,938 | $3,903 | 77% | 81% | +$1,047 | -$0 | 0.0% | $839 (vs do-nothing +$609) |
| $117 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 4/5 | $4,296 | $5,137 | 76% | 81% | +$1,278 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-247 (vs do-nothing $-477) |
| $125 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 4/5 | $3,450 | $4,291 | 76% | 81% | +$986 | -$0 | 0.0% | $877 (vs do-nothing +$647) |
| $120 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.84 | 4/5 | $3,787 | $4,628 | 76% | 81% | +$1,191 | -$0 | 0.0% | $173 (vs do-nothing $-57) |
| $124 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 4/5 | $3,525 | $4,366 | 75% | 80% | +$899 | -$0 | 0.0% | $917 (vs do-nothing +$687) |
| $115 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 2/5 | $5,160 | $7,751 | 74% | 80% | +$1,787 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-23 (vs do-nothing $-252) |
| $119 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $4,000 | $4,841 | 74% | 79% | +$1,110 | -$0 | 0.0% | $237 (vs do-nothing +$7) |
| $123 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 4/5 | $3,712 | $4,553 | 74% | 79% | +$916 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,017 (vs do-nothing +$787) |
| $120 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 5/5 | $3,589 | $3,555 | 74% | 80% | +$749 | -$0 | 0.0% | $414 (vs do-nothing +$184) |
| $116 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 3/5 | $3,726 | $5,442 | 74% | 79% | +$1,076 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-44 (vs do-nothing $-274) |
| $122 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/5 | $3,900 | $4,741 | 72% | 79% | +$923 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,117 (vs do-nothing +$887) |
| $118 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 4/5 | $4,333 | $5,174 | 72% | 78% | +$1,122 | -$0 | 0.0% | $337 (vs do-nothing +$107) |
| $121 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 4/5 | $4,125 | $4,966 | 71% | 78% | +$956 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,237 (vs do-nothing +$1,007) |
| $115 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.38 | 3/5 | $4,284 | $6,000 | 71% | 77% | +$1,190 | -$0 | 0.0% | $49 (vs do-nothing $-181) |
| $114 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 2/5 | $6,030 | $8,621 | 71% | 77% | +$1,921 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-69 (vs do-nothing $-298) |
| $117 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 3/5 | $3,450 | $5,166 | 70% | 77% | +$778 | -$0 | 0.0% | $370 (vs do-nothing +$140) |
| $120 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/5 | $3,319 | $5,035 | 70% | 77% | +$791 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,105 (vs do-nothing +$875) |
| $117 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 5/5 | $3,625 | $3,591 | 70% | 78% | +$106 | -$0 | 0.0% | $189 (vs do-nothing $-41) |
| $119 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/5 | $3,431 | $5,147 | 69% | 76% | +$744 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,165 (vs do-nothing +$935) |
| $116 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 3/5 | $3,800 | $5,516 | 68% | 76% | +$840 | -$0 | 0.0% | $475 (vs do-nothing +$245) |
| $116 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 5/5 | $3,812 | $3,778 | 68% | 77% | $-66 | -$0 | 0.0% | $264 (vs do-nothing +$34) |
| $114 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 3/5 | $4,680 | $6,396 | 68% | 77% | +$1,080 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-41 (vs do-nothing $-270) |
| $118 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 3/5 | $3,600 | $5,316 | 67% | 76% | +$744 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,255 (vs do-nothing +$1,025) |
| $113 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 1/5 | $3,480 | $6,946 | 67% | 75% | +$994 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11 (vs do-nothing $-218) |
| $116 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 5/5 | $3,696 | $3,662 | 67% | 76% | $-275 | -$0 | 0.0% | $464 (vs do-nothing +$234) |
| $115 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 3/5 | $4,300 | $6,016 | 66% | 75% | +$1,028 | -$0 | 0.0% | $625 (vs do-nothing +$395) |
| $117 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 3/5 | $3,853 | $5,569 | 66% | 75% | +$819 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,390 (vs do-nothing +$1,160) |
| $114 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $1.56 | 5/5 | $3,343 | $3,309 | 66% | 74% | $-2,191 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-741 (vs do-nothing $-970) |
| $115 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 4/5 | $3,450 | $4,291 | 66% | 75% | +$35 | -$0 | 0.0% | $417 (vs do-nothing +$187) |
| $115 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 4/5 | $3,429 | $4,269 | 65% | 75% | $-18 | -$0 | 0.0% | $637 (vs do-nothing +$407) |
| $116 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 3/5 | $3,994 | $5,710 | 65% | 74% | +$773 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,465 (vs do-nothing +$1,235) |
| $113 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.99 | 2/5 | $3,588 | $6,179 | 65% | 74% | +$807 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-73 (vs do-nothing $-302) |
| $114 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $4,450 | $6,166 | 64% | 73% | +$840 | -$0 | 0.0% | $514 (vs do-nothing +$285) |
| $114 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/5 | $3,500 | $4,341 | 64% | 74% | $-254 | -$0 | 0.0% | $229 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $113 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $1.94 | 4/5 | $3,326 | $4,167 | 63% | 73% | $-1,679 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-795 (vs do-nothing $-1,024) |
| $115 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 3/5 | $4,247 | $5,963 | 63% | 73% | +$830 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,600 (vs do-nothing +$1,370) |
| $112 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 1/5 | $3,975 | $7,441 | 63% | 73% | +$988 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-56 (vs do-nothing $-285) |
| $114 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 4/5 | $3,471 | $4,312 | 63% | 74% | $-269 | -$0 | 0.0% | $449 (vs do-nothing +$220) |
| $114 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.75 | 3/5 | $4,359 | $6,075 | 62% | 73% | +$736 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,504 (vs do-nothing +$1,275) |
| $113 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 3/5 | $4,800 | $6,516 | 62% | 72% | +$825 | -$0 | 0.0% | $319 (vs do-nothing +$90) |
| $113 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 4/5 | $4,200 | $5,041 | 62% | 73% | +$80 | -$0 | 0.0% | $109 (vs do-nothing $-120) |
| $112 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 2/5 | $3,900 | $6,491 | 61% | 72% | +$690 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-221 (vs do-nothing $-450) |
| $113 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 4/5 | $3,900 | $4,741 | 61% | 73% | $-155 | -$0 | 0.0% | $249 (vs do-nothing +$20) |
| $112 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 4/5 | $3,994 | $4,835 | 60% | 72% | $-1,646 | -$75 | 0.5% | $-1,039 (vs do-nothing $-1,268) |
| $113 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 3/5 | $4,641 | $6,357 | 60% | 72% | +$801 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,354 (vs do-nothing +$1,125) |
| $112 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 2/5 | $3,500 | $6,091 | 59% | 71% | +$589 | -$0 | 0.0% | $179 (vs do-nothing $-50) |
| $112 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/5 | $3,750 | $5,466 | 59% | 72% | +$365 | -$0 | 0.0% | $79 (vs do-nothing $-150) |
| $112 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 4/5 | $4,243 | $5,084 | 59% | 71% | $-146 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9 (vs do-nothing $-220) |
| $111 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 1/5 | $4,500 | $7,966 | 59% | 71% | +$938 | -$52 | 0.4% | $-121 (vs do-nothing $-350) |
| $112 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.75 | 3/5 | $4,922 | $6,638 | 59% | 71% | +$855 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,204 (vs do-nothing +$975) |
| $111 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 2/5 | $4,200 | $6,791 | 58% | 70% | +$513 | -$4 | 0.0% | $-371 (vs do-nothing $-600) |
| $111 | 7d | 15 Jul 2026 | $2.78 | 3/5 | $3,574 | $5,290 | 58% | 70% | $-1,179 | -$221 | 1.5% | $-887 (vs do-nothing $-1,116) |
| $111 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.15 | 2/5 | $3,431 | $6,022 | 57% | 71% | +$562 | -$0 | 0.0% | $759 (vs do-nothing +$530) |
| $111 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 2/5 | $3,767 | $6,358 | 57% | 70% | +$575 | -$0 | 0.0% | $59 (vs do-nothing $-170) |
| $111 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/5 | $3,638 | $5,353 | 57% | 71% | $-65 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-266 (vs do-nothing $-495) |
| $111 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/5 | $3,471 | $5,187 | 57% | 71% | $-87 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-101 (vs do-nothing $-330) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.