5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $113.84 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $47,000 | (ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,130/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $31/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-2,760 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 5 × $126 | 95% | $3,600 | $2,491 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 5 × $125 | 80% | $3,750 | $653 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $138 | 10 Jul | 2d | 24.3% | 99+% | 1% | $9 | $135 | -$3,465 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $138 24.3% OTM over spot $111.00 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $9 credit for the 2d cycle → $135/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $138) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $138.09) 99+% EV / mo +$129 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 99% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $546 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$356 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $162 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.16/sh now → $3.65 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $138 is at/above CC-SS $113.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $138.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $138)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $143.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,499 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $138): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $114): +$2,160 Total Position P&L @ SS: $899 (+$3,659 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-540, the opportunity cost of earning $135/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $128 | 10 Jul | 2d | 15.3% | 97% | 7% | $175 | $2,625 | -$975 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $128 15.3% OTM over spot $111.00 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.37 mid) = $175 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $128) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $128.37) 97% EV / mo +$2,260 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $173 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,518 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $154 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.79/sh now → $3.39 mid-life (likely $3.52–$6.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 72 simulated challenges: the $128 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $131 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $128 is at/above CC-SS $113.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $128.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $128)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $143.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,499 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $128): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$1,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,700, the opportunity cost of earning $2,625/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $126 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.5% | 95% | 4% | $240 | $3,600 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $126 13.5% OTM over spot $111.00 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.49 mid) = $240 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $126) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $126.50) 96% EV / mo +$2,973 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $365 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,427 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $153 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.71/sh now → $3.33 mid-life (likely $3.15–$6.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 133 simulated challenges: the $126 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $129 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $126 is at/above CC-SS $113.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $126.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $126)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $143.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,499 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $126): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$1,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,700, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $123 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.8% | 92% | 17% | $375 | $5,625 | +$2,025 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $123 10.8% OTM over spot $111.00 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.77 mid) = $375 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $123) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $123.77) 93% EV / mo +$4,226 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $671 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,252 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $150 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.60/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $3.43–$6.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 235 simulated challenges: the $123 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $126 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $123 is at/above CC-SS $113.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $123.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $123)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $143.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,499 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $123): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$1,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,700, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $121 | 10 Jul | 2d | 9.0% | 88% | 24% | $505 | $7,575 | +$3,975 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $121 9.0% OTM over spot $111.00 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.02 mid) = $505 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $121) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $122.03) 90% EV / mo +$5,220 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 98% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $504 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,096 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $148 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.53/sh now → $3.20 mid-life (likely $3.53–$6.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 401 simulated challenges: the $121 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $124 (overshoots $3.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $121 is at/above CC-SS $113.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $122.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $121)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $143.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,499 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $121): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$1,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,700, the opportunity cost of earning $7,575/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $138 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.3% | 94% | 13% | $75 | $250 | -$3,500 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $138 24.3% OTM over spot $111.00 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.78 mid) = $75 credit for the 9d cycle → $250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $138) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $138.78) 94% EV / mo +$156 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 100% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $537 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$539 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $149 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.67/sh now → $6.14 mid-life (likely $4.93–$8.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 299 simulated challenges: the $138 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $142 (overshoots $4.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $138 is at/above CC-SS $113.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $138.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $138)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $143.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,499 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $138): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $114): +$2,160 Total Position P&L @ SS: $899 (+$3,659 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-540, the opportunity cost of earning $250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $135 | 17 Jul | 9d | 21.6% | 92% | 17% | $475 | $1,583 | -$2,167 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $135 21.6% OTM over spot $111.00 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.97 mid) = $475 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $135) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $135.97) 93% EV / mo +$912 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,527 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $147 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.49/sh now → $6.00 mid-life (likely $4.63–$8.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 409 simulated challenges: the $135 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $139 (overshoots $4.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $135 is at/above CC-SS $113.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.95 collected) or spot ≥ $135.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $135)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $143.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,499 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $135): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$1,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,700, the opportunity cost of earning $1,583/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $130 | 17 Jul | 9d | 17.1% | 86% | 30% | $725 | $2,417 | -$1,333 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $130 17.1% OTM over spot $111.00 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.50 mid) = $725 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,417/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $130) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $131.50) 87% EV / mo +$807 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,165 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $144 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.17/sh now → $5.78 mid-life (likely $5.27–$8.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 673 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $134 (overshoots $3.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $130 is at/above CC-SS $113.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $131.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $143.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,499 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $130): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$1,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,700, the opportunity cost of earning $2,417/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $125 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.6% | 80% | 33% | $1,125 | $3,750 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $125 12.6% OTM over spot $111.00 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.29 mid) = $1,125 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $125) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $127.29) 83% EV / mo +$991 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,654 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $143 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.86/sh now → $5.56 mid-life (likely $5.92–$8.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,003 simulated challenges: the $125 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $129 (overshoots $3.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $125 is at/above CC-SS $113.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.25 collected) or spot ≥ $127.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $143.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,499 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $125): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$1,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,700, the opportunity cost of earning $3,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $116 | 17 Jul | 9d | 4.5% | 64% | 76% | $2,275 | $7,583 | +$3,833 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $116 4.5% OTM over spot $111.00 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $4.72 mid) = $2,275 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $116) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $120.72) 73% EV / mo +$1,032 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,273 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$304 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 20 Jul 2026) $135 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.29/sh now → $5.16 mid-life (likely $6.65–$9.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,869 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $120 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $116 is at/above CC-SS $113.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.14/sh (~25% of the $4.55 collected) or spot ≥ $120.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $116)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $143.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$1,499 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $116): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$1,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,700, the opportunity cost of earning $7,583/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 82 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.055 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$1,499 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,439
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $126 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 5/5 | $3,600 | $3,569 | 95% | 96% | +$2,973 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,021 (vs do-nothing $-2,460) |
| $125 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 5/5 | $4,050 | $4,019 | 94% | 95% | +$3,229 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-991 (vs do-nothing $-2,430) |
| $124 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 4/5 | $3,840 | $5,159 | 93% | 94% | +$2,982 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-465 (vs do-nothing $-1,904) |
| $123 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 4/5 | $4,500 | $5,819 | 92% | 93% | +$3,380 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-421 (vs do-nothing $-1,860) |
| $122 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 3/5 | $3,915 | $6,584 | 90% | 92% | +$2,823 | -$0 | 0.0% | $80 (vs do-nothing $-1,359) |
| $121 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 3/5 | $4,545 | $7,214 | 88% | 90% | +$3,132 | -$0 | 0.0% | $122 (vs do-nothing $-1,317) |
| $120 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 3/5 | $5,310 | $7,979 | 86% | 88% | +$3,490 | -$0 | 0.0% | $173 (vs do-nothing $-1,266) |
| $119 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 2/5 | $4,110 | $8,129 | 83% | 87% | +$2,556 | -$0 | 0.0% | $633 (vs do-nothing $-806) |
| $121 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 5/5 | $3,990 | $3,959 | 83% | 85% | +$1,780 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-596 (vs do-nothing $-2,035) |
| $118 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.59 | 2/5 | $4,770 | $8,789 | 80% | 85% | +$2,792 | -$0 | 0.0% | $677 (vs do-nothing $-762) |
| $120 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.52 | 4/5 | $3,648 | $4,967 | 80% | 84% | +$1,528 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-113 (vs do-nothing $-1,552) |
| $131 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 5/5 | $3,609 | $3,579 | 80% | 84% | +$1,301 | -$0 | 0.0% | $664 (vs do-nothing $-775) |
| $125 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 5/5 | $3,750 | $3,719 | 80% | 83% | +$991 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-136 (vs do-nothing $-1,575) |
Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 69.
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $130 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 5/5 | $3,797 | $3,766 | 79% | 83% | +$1,334 | -$0 | 0.0% | $764 (vs do-nothing $-675) |
| $129 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 5/5 | $3,984 | $3,954 | 78% | 82% | +$1,358 | -$0 | 0.0% | $864 (vs do-nothing $-575) |
| $124 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.41 | 5/5 | $4,017 | $3,986 | 78% | 82% | +$958 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-56 (vs do-nothing $-1,495) |
| $119 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 4/5 | $4,176 | $5,495 | 78% | 82% | +$1,644 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-25 (vs do-nothing $-1,464) |
| $128 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 5/5 | $4,172 | $4,141 | 77% | 82% | +$1,372 | -$0 | 0.0% | $964 (vs do-nothing $-475) |
| $117 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.83 | 2/5 | $5,490 | $9,509 | 77% | 83% | +$2,991 | -$0 | 0.0% | $725 (vs do-nothing $-714) |
| $123 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.63 | 5/5 | $4,383 | $4,353 | 77% | 81% | +$999 | -$0 | 0.0% | $54 (vs do-nothing $-1,385) |
| $127 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 5/5 | $4,359 | $4,329 | 76% | 81% | +$1,375 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,064 (vs do-nothing $-375) |
| $118 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.99 | 3/5 | $3,582 | $6,251 | 75% | 81% | +$1,322 | -$0 | 0.0% | $416 (vs do-nothing $-1,023) |
| $126 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 4/5 | $3,675 | $4,994 | 75% | 80% | +$1,132 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,239 (vs do-nothing $-200) |
| $122 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 4/5 | $3,800 | $5,119 | 75% | 80% | +$809 | -$0 | 0.0% | $419 (vs do-nothing $-1,020) |
| $121 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 5/5 | $4,062 | $4,032 | 74% | 80% | +$1,286 | -$0 | 0.0% | $364 (vs do-nothing $-1,075) |
| $125 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/5 | $3,900 | $5,219 | 74% | 80% | +$1,191 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,359 (vs do-nothing $-80) |
| $116 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 2/5 | $6,330 | $10,349 | 73% | 81% | +$3,196 | -$0 | 0.0% | $781 (vs do-nothing $-658) |
| $121 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 4/5 | $4,067 | $5,386 | 73% | 78% | +$768 | -$0 | 0.0% | $499 (vs do-nothing $-940) |
| $124 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/5 | $4,050 | $5,369 | 73% | 79% | +$1,166 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,439 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $120 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 5/5 | $4,062 | $4,032 | 72% | 79% | +$998 | -$0 | 0.0% | $364 (vs do-nothing $-1,075) |
| $117 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 3/5 | $4,068 | $6,737 | 72% | 79% | +$1,389 | -$0 | 0.0% | $497 (vs do-nothing $-942) |
| $123 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 4/5 | $4,275 | $5,594 | 72% | 78% | +$1,205 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,559 (vs do-nothing +$120) |
| $120 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 4/5 | $4,467 | $5,786 | 72% | 77% | +$835 | -$0 | 0.0% | $619 (vs do-nothing $-820) |
| $120 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/5 | $3,686 | $5,005 | 71% | 78% | +$1,068 | -$0 | 0.0% | $999 (vs do-nothing $-440) |
| $119 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 4/5 | $3,650 | $4,969 | 70% | 78% | +$948 | -$0 | 0.0% | $739 (vs do-nothing $-700) |
| $122 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 4/5 | $4,462 | $5,782 | 70% | 78% | +$1,197 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,659 (vs do-nothing +$220) |
| $119 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 3/5 | $3,600 | $6,269 | 70% | 76% | +$607 | -$0 | 0.0% | $899 (vs do-nothing $-540) |
| $115 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.43 | 1/5 | $3,645 | $9,014 | 70% | 79% | +$1,696 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,142 (vs do-nothing $-297) |
| $116 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.58 | 3/5 | $4,644 | $7,313 | 69% | 77% | +$1,485 | -$0 | 0.0% | $593 (vs do-nothing $-846) |
| $121 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 4/5 | $4,688 | $6,007 | 69% | 77% | +$1,215 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,779 (vs do-nothing +$340) |
| $118 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 4/5 | $4,050 | $5,369 | 69% | 77% | +$1,074 | -$0 | 0.0% | $899 (vs do-nothing $-540) |
| $118 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 3/5 | $3,900 | $6,569 | 68% | 75% | +$616 | -$0 | 0.0% | $989 (vs do-nothing $-450) |
| $120 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/5 | $3,628 | $6,297 | 68% | 76% | +$860 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,754 (vs do-nothing +$315) |
| $117 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 4/5 | $4,250 | $5,569 | 67% | 75% | +$976 | -$0 | 0.0% | $979 (vs do-nothing $-460) |
| $119 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 3/5 | $3,881 | $6,551 | 66% | 75% | +$940 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,889 (vs do-nothing +$450) |
| $115 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 2/5 | $3,600 | $7,619 | 66% | 76% | +$1,129 | -$0 | 0.0% | $959 (vs do-nothing $-480) |
| $117 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 3/5 | $4,250 | $6,919 | 66% | 74% | +$654 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,094 (vs do-nothing $-345) |
| $114 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.77 | 1/5 | $4,155 | $9,524 | 65% | 76% | +$1,753 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,176 (vs do-nothing $-263) |
| $118 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 3/5 | $4,050 | $6,719 | 65% | 75% | +$926 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,979 (vs do-nothing +$540) |
| $116 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 3/5 | $4,550 | $7,219 | 64% | 73% | +$619 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,184 (vs do-nothing $-255) |
| $117 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 3/5 | $4,247 | $6,916 | 64% | 74% | +$932 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,084 (vs do-nothing +$645) |
| $116 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 4/5 | $4,650 | $5,969 | 63% | 71% | $-182 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,139 (vs do-nothing $-300) |
| $114 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 2/5 | $3,960 | $7,979 | 63% | 74% | +$1,077 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,019 (vs do-nothing $-420) |
| $116 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 3/5 | $4,472 | $7,141 | 62% | 73% | +$955 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,204 (vs do-nothing +$765) |
| $115 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 3/5 | $4,950 | $7,619 | 62% | 72% | +$660 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,304 (vs do-nothing $-135) |
| $115 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 4/5 | $4,371 | $5,691 | 62% | 72% | +$436 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,319 (vs do-nothing $-120) |
| $115 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 3/5 | $3,788 | $6,457 | 61% | 70% | $-114 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,334 (vs do-nothing $-105) |
| $113 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 1/5 | $4,725 | $10,094 | 61% | 74% | +$1,794 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,130 (vs do-nothing $-309) |
| $115 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.30 | 3/5 | $4,669 | $7,338 | 61% | 72% | +$941 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,309 (vs do-nothing +$870) |
| $114 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/5 | $4,050 | $6,719 | 59% | 69% | $-144 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,439 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $113 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 2/5 | $4,440 | $8,459 | 59% | 72% | +$1,094 | -$0 | 0.0% | $931 (vs do-nothing $-507) |
| $114 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 3/5 | $4,866 | $7,535 | 59% | 71% | +$916 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,414 (vs do-nothing +$975) |
| $113 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.10 | 3/5 | $5,119 | $7,788 | 58% | 71% | +$936 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,298 (vs do-nothing +$859) |
| $113 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 3/5 | $4,350 | $7,019 | 58% | 69% | $-154 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,308 (vs do-nothing $-131) |
| $112 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 1/5 | $5,325 | $10,694 | 56% | 72% | +$1,785 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,070 (vs do-nothing $-369) |
| $112 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.55 | 2/5 | $3,581 | $7,601 | 56% | 70% | +$630 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,901 (vs do-nothing +$463) |
| $112 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 2/5 | $4,920 | $8,939 | 56% | 70% | +$1,061 | -$0 | 0.0% | $811 (vs do-nothing $-627) |
| $112 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 3/5 | $4,612 | $7,282 | 56% | 67% | $-217 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,113 (vs do-nothing $-326) |
| $111 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 2/5 | $3,731 | $7,751 | 54% | 69% | +$611 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,781 (vs do-nothing +$343) |
| $111 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 3/5 | $5,025 | $7,694 | 54% | 67% | $-148 | -$0 | 0.0% | $978 (vs do-nothing $-461) |
| $110 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.40 | 2/5 | $3,900 | $7,919 | 53% | 69% | +$602 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,671 (vs do-nothing +$233) |
| $111 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 2/5 | $5,520 | $9,539 | 52% | 68% | +$1,094 | -$0 | 0.0% | $711 (vs do-nothing $-727) |
| $110 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 2/5 | $3,700 | $7,719 | 52% | 66% | +$11 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,071 (vs do-nothing $-367) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.