5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $114.66 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $47,000 | (ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,071/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $31/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-3,835 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 5 × $125 | 95% | $3,750 | $2,523 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 5 × $124 | 82% | $3,600 | $938 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $137 | 10 Jul | 2d | 24.8% | 99% | 1% | $12 | $180 | -$3,570 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $137 24.8% OTM over spot $109.79 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.12 mid) = $12 credit for the 2d cycle → $180/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $137) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $137.12) 99% EV / mo +$171 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 97% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $749 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$356 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $160 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.21/sh now → $3.68 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $137 is at/above CC-SS $114.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $137.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $137)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,574 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $137): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $114): +$1,514 Total Position P&L @ SS: $253 (+$4,088 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-379, the opportunity cost of earning $180/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $128 | 10 Jul | 2d | 16.6% | 97% | 6% | $170 | $2,550 | -$1,200 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $128 16.6% OTM over spot $109.79 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.35 mid) = $170 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $128) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $128.35) 97% EV / mo +$2,205 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $215 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,551 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $153 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.87/sh now → $3.44 mid-life (likely $3.64–$6.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 65 simulated challenges: the $128 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $132 (overshoots $3.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $128 is at/above CC-SS $114.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $128.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $128)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $128): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,574 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,893, the opportunity cost of earning $2,550/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $125 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.9% | 95% | 5% | $250 | $3,750 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $125 13.9% OTM over spot $109.79 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.52 mid) = $250 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $125) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $125.52) 95% EV / mo +$3,043 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $321 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,430 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $151 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.75/sh now → $3.36 mid-life (likely $3.45–$7.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 146 simulated challenges: the $125 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $129 (overshoots $3.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $125 is at/above CC-SS $114.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $125.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $125): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,574 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,893, the opportunity cost of earning $3,750/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $122 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.1% | 91% | 17% | $385 | $5,775 | +$2,025 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $122 11.1% OTM over spot $109.79 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.78 mid) = $385 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,775/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $122.78) 93% EV / mo +$4,301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $571 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,255 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $149 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.64/sh now → $3.28 mid-life (likely $3.40–$6.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 263 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $125 (overshoots $3.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $122 is at/above CC-SS $114.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $122.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $122): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,574 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,893, the opportunity cost of earning $5,775/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $120 | 10 Jul | 2d | 9.3% | 88% | 24% | $510 | $7,650 | +$3,900 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $120 9.3% OTM over spot $109.79 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.03 mid) = $510 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $121.03) 90% EV / mo +$5,241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $829 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,103 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $147 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.56/sh now → $3.23 mid-life (likely $3.46–$6.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 400 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $123 (overshoots $3.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $114.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.02 collected) or spot ≥ $121.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $120): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,574 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,893, the opportunity cost of earning $7,650/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $137 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.8% | 94% | 13% | $72 | $240 | -$3,360 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $137 24.8% OTM over spot $109.79 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.76 mid) = $72 credit for the 9d cycle → $240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $137) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $137.76) 94% EV / mo +$146 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.4] median · 99% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $589 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$533 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $147 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.55/sh now → $6.05 mid-life (likely $4.98–$8.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 226 simulated challenges: the $137 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $141 (overshoots $3.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $137 is at/above CC-SS $114.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $137.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $137)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,574 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $137): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $114): +$1,514 Total Position P&L @ SS: $253 (+$4,088 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-379, the opportunity cost of earning $240/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $132 | 17 Jul | 9d | 20.2% | 90% | 20% | $550 | $1,833 | -$1,767 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $132 20.2% OTM over spot $109.79 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.15 mid) = $550 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $132) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $133.15) 91% EV / mo +$986 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median · 92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,365 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $144 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.24/sh now → $5.83 mid-life (likely $5.07–$8.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 434 simulated challenges: the $132 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $136 (overshoots $3.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $132 is at/above CC-SS $114.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $133.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $132)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $132): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,574 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,893, the opportunity cost of earning $1,833/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $129 | 17 Jul | 9d | 17.5% | 88% | 26% | $710 | $2,367 | -$1,233 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $129 17.5% OTM over spot $109.79 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.49 mid) = $710 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,367/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $129) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $130.49) 89% EV / mo +$1,164 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,139 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $143 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.05/sh now → $5.70 mid-life (likely $5.37–$8.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 566 simulated challenges: the $129 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $133 (overshoots $3.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $129 is at/above CC-SS $114.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.42 collected) or spot ≥ $130.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $129)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $129): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,574 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,893, the opportunity cost of earning $2,367/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $124 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.9% | 82% | 29% | $1,080 | $3,600 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $124 12.9% OTM over spot $109.79 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.22 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $124) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $126.22) 85% EV / mo +$1,465 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,658 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $141 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.74/sh now → $5.48 mid-life (likely $5.50–$8.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 875 simulated challenges: the $124 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $127 (overshoots $3.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $124 is at/above CC-SS $114.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.16 collected) or spot ≥ $126.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $124)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $124): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,574 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,893, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $115 | 17 Jul | 9d | 4.7% | 65% | 73% | $2,250 | $7,500 | +$3,900 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $115 4.7% OTM over spot $109.79 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $4.60 mid) = $2,250 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $119.60) 74% EV / mo +$1,924 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,249 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$290 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 22 Jul 2026) $140 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.18/sh now → $5.08 mid-life (likely $6.58–$8.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,757 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $118 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $115 is at/above CC-SS $114.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.12/sh (~25% of the $4.50 collected) or spot ≥ $119.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,574 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $115): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$2,574 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,893, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 80 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.056 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,574 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $631
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 5/5 | $3,750 | $3,719 | 95% | 95% | +$3,043 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,011 (vs do-nothing $-1,643) |
| $124 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 5/5 | $4,350 | $4,319 | 94% | 95% | +$3,449 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-971 (vs do-nothing $-1,603) |
| $123 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 4/5 | $3,960 | $5,042 | 93% | 94% | +$3,038 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-619 (vs do-nothing $-1,250) |
| $122 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 4/5 | $4,620 | $5,702 | 91% | 93% | +$3,441 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-575 (vs do-nothing $-1,206) |
| $121 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 3/5 | $3,960 | $6,154 | 90% | 91% | +$2,829 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-240 (vs do-nothing $-872) |
| $120 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 3/5 | $4,590 | $6,784 | 88% | 90% | +$3,145 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-198 (vs do-nothing $-830) |
| $119 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 2/5 | $3,540 | $6,847 | 86% | 89% | +$2,311 | -$0 | 0.0% | $110 (vs do-nothing $-521) |
| $121 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 5/5 | $3,870 | $3,839 | 84% | 87% | +$1,819 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-616 (vs do-nothing $-1,248) |
| $118 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 2/5 | $4,080 | $7,387 | 83% | 87% | +$2,519 | -$0 | 0.0% | $146 (vs do-nothing $-485) |
| $120 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.49 | 4/5 | $3,576 | $4,658 | 82% | 85% | +$1,639 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-287 (vs do-nothing $-918) |
| $124 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 5/5 | $3,600 | $3,569 | 82% | 85% | +$1,465 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-181 (vs do-nothing $-813) |
| $117 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 2/5 | $4,710 | $8,017 | 81% | 85% | +$2,736 | -$0 | 0.0% | $188 (vs do-nothing $-443) |
| $123 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.36 | 5/5 | $3,933 | $3,903 | 80% | 84% | +$1,545 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-81 (vs do-nothing $-713) |
Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 67.
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $119 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 4/5 | $3,960 | $5,042 | 80% | 84% | +$1,677 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-223 (vs do-nothing $-854) |
| $129 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 5/5 | $3,562 | $3,532 | 79% | 83% | +$1,132 | -$0 | 0.0% | $639 (vs do-nothing +$7) |
| $122 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.56 | 5/5 | $4,267 | $4,236 | 79% | 83% | +$1,597 | -$0 | 0.0% | $19 (vs do-nothing $-613) |
| $128 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 5/5 | $3,844 | $3,813 | 79% | 82% | +$1,252 | -$0 | 0.0% | $789 (vs do-nothing +$157) |
| $118 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.85 | 4/5 | $4,440 | $5,522 | 78% | 82% | +$1,754 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-143 (vs do-nothing $-774) |
| $127 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 5/5 | $4,031 | $4,001 | 78% | 82% | +$1,267 | -$0 | 0.0% | $889 (vs do-nothing +$257) |
| $116 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.81 | 2/5 | $5,430 | $8,737 | 77% | 83% | +$2,948 | -$0 | 0.0% | $236 (vs do-nothing $-395) |
| $121 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.77 | 4/5 | $3,693 | $4,775 | 77% | 81% | +$1,310 | -$0 | 0.0% | $225 (vs do-nothing $-406) |
| $126 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 5/5 | $4,172 | $4,141 | 76% | 81% | +$1,226 | -$0 | 0.0% | $964 (vs do-nothing +$332) |
| $125 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 4/5 | $3,600 | $4,682 | 75% | 80% | +$1,088 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,037 (vs do-nothing +$406) |
| $120 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $4,000 | $5,082 | 75% | 80% | +$1,344 | -$0 | 0.0% | $317 (vs do-nothing $-314) |
| $117 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 3/5 | $3,798 | $5,992 | 75% | 81% | +$1,434 | -$0 | 0.0% | $129 (vs do-nothing $-503) |
| $120 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 5/5 | $4,125 | $4,094 | 74% | 80% | +$1,347 | -$0 | 0.0% | $389 (vs do-nothing $-243) |
| $124 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 4/5 | $3,750 | $4,832 | 74% | 80% | +$1,074 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,117 (vs do-nothing +$486) |
| $115 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.08 | 2/5 | $6,240 | $9,547 | 74% | 81% | +$3,138 | -$0 | 0.0% | $290 (vs do-nothing $-341) |
| $119 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 4/5 | $4,333 | $5,415 | 73% | 79% | +$1,377 | -$0 | 0.0% | $417 (vs do-nothing $-214) |
| $120 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 5/5 | $3,804 | $3,773 | 73% | 79% | +$1,067 | -$0 | 0.0% | $514 (vs do-nothing $-118) |
| $123 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/5 | $3,900 | $4,982 | 73% | 79% | +$1,051 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,197 (vs do-nothing +$566) |
| $116 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.38 | 3/5 | $4,284 | $6,478 | 72% | 79% | +$1,517 | -$0 | 0.0% | $210 (vs do-nothing $-422) |
| $122 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 4/5 | $4,125 | $5,207 | 72% | 78% | +$1,092 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,317 (vs do-nothing +$686) |
| $118 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/5 | $4,667 | $5,748 | 71% | 78% | +$1,382 | -$0 | 0.0% | $517 (vs do-nothing $-114) |
| $118 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 5/5 | $3,812 | $3,782 | 71% | 77% | +$439 | -$0 | 0.0% | $264 (vs do-nothing $-368) |
| $121 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 4/5 | $4,275 | $5,357 | 71% | 78% | +$1,048 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,397 (vs do-nothing +$766) |
| $114 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.38 | 1/5 | $3,570 | $7,989 | 70% | 79% | +$1,646 | -$0 | 0.0% | $424 (vs do-nothing $-207) |
| $115 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 3/5 | $4,770 | $6,964 | 69% | 77% | +$1,542 | -$0 | 0.0% | $291 (vs do-nothing $-341) |
| $117 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 3/5 | $3,800 | $5,994 | 69% | 77% | +$1,067 | -$0 | 0.0% | $636 (vs do-nothing +$4) |
| $120 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 4/5 | $4,575 | $5,657 | 69% | 77% | +$1,143 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,557 (vs do-nothing +$926) |
| $117 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 5/5 | $4,312 | $4,282 | 69% | 76% | +$600 | -$0 | 0.0% | $464 (vs do-nothing $-168) |
| $119 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 3/5 | $3,544 | $5,738 | 68% | 76% | +$807 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,386 (vs do-nothing +$754) |
| $116 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 3/5 | $4,150 | $6,344 | 67% | 76% | +$1,124 | -$0 | 0.0% | $741 (vs do-nothing +$109) |
| $116 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 4/5 | $3,700 | $4,782 | 67% | 75% | +$434 | -$0 | 0.0% | $597 (vs do-nothing $-34) |
| $118 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 3/5 | $3,712 | $5,907 | 67% | 75% | +$805 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,476 (vs do-nothing +$844) |
| $114 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 2/5 | $3,540 | $6,847 | 66% | 76% | +$1,039 | -$0 | 0.0% | $331 (vs do-nothing $-300) |
| $113 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.73 | 1/5 | $4,095 | $8,514 | 66% | 77% | +$1,727 | -$0 | 0.0% | $359 (vs do-nothing $-272) |
| $117 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.95 | 3/5 | $3,909 | $6,104 | 65% | 75% | +$821 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,581 (vs do-nothing +$949) |
| $115 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 3/5 | $4,500 | $6,694 | 65% | 74% | +$1,154 | -$0 | 0.0% | $846 (vs do-nothing +$214) |
| $115 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 4/5 | $4,550 | $5,632 | 65% | 74% | +$962 | -$0 | 0.0% | $937 (vs do-nothing +$306) |
| $115 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 4/5 | $4,286 | $5,368 | 64% | 75% | +$927 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,117 (vs do-nothing +$486) |
| $116 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 3/5 | $4,106 | $6,301 | 64% | 74% | +$829 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,686 (vs do-nothing +$1,054) |
| $113 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 2/5 | $3,960 | $7,267 | 63% | 74% | +$1,064 | -$0 | 0.0% | $201 (vs do-nothing $-430) |
| $114 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 4/5 | $4,450 | $5,532 | 63% | 73% | +$514 | -$0 | 0.0% | $631 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $115 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.80 | 3/5 | $4,388 | $6,582 | 63% | 73% | +$911 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,836 (vs do-nothing +$1,204) |
| $112 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 1/5 | $4,575 | $8,994 | 62% | 74% | +$1,686 | -$0 | 0.0% | $291 (vs do-nothing $-340) |
| $114 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 3/5 | $4,556 | $6,751 | 61% | 72% | +$870 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,726 (vs do-nothing +$1,095) |
| $113 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 3/5 | $3,900 | $6,094 | 60% | 72% | +$666 | -$0 | 0.0% | $556 (vs do-nothing $-75) |
| $112 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 2/5 | $4,380 | $7,687 | 60% | 72% | +$1,040 | -$0 | 0.0% | $71 (vs do-nothing $-560) |
| $113 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 3/5 | $4,753 | $6,947 | 60% | 72% | +$847 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,531 (vs do-nothing +$900) |
| $112 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 3/5 | $4,088 | $6,282 | 58% | 71% | +$549 | -$0 | 0.0% | $331 (vs do-nothing $-300) |
| $112 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 3/5 | $5,034 | $7,229 | 58% | 71% | +$899 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,381 (vs do-nothing +$750) |
| $111 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 1/5 | $5,250 | $9,669 | 57% | 72% | +$1,760 | -$16 | 0.1% | $236 (vs do-nothing $-395) |
| $111 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.30 | 3/5 | $5,231 | $7,426 | 56% | 70% | +$855 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,186 (vs do-nothing +$555) |
| $111 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 2/5 | $4,860 | $8,167 | 56% | 70% | +$1,026 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-49 (vs do-nothing $-680) |
| $111 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 3/5 | $4,162 | $6,357 | 56% | 69% | +$299 | -$0 | 0.0% | $61 (vs do-nothing $-570) |
| $110 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 2/5 | $3,675 | $6,982 | 55% | 69% | +$589 | -$0 | 0.0% | $901 (vs do-nothing +$270) |
| $110 | 14d | 22 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 3/5 | $4,243 | $6,437 | 54% | 69% | +$440 | -$0 | 0.0% | $76 (vs do-nothing $-555) |
| $110 | 12d | 20 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $4,875 | $7,069 | 54% | 69% | +$663 | -$0 | 0.0% | $46 (vs do-nothing $-585) |
| $110 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 2/5 | $4,400 | $7,707 | 53% | 69% | +$824 | -$0 | 0.0% | $261 (vs do-nothing $-370) |
| $109 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.15 | 2/5 | $3,806 | $7,113 | 53% | 69% | +$545 | -$0 | 0.0% | $771 (vs do-nothing +$140) |
| $110 | 5d | 13 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 2/5 | $5,460 | $8,767 | 53% | 69% | +$1,080 | -$23 | 0.2% | $-149 (vs do-nothing $-780) |
| $110 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 1/5 | $6,000 | $10,419 | 53% | 70% | +$1,825 | -$66 | 0.5% | $186 (vs do-nothing $-445) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.