FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $107.77

BE SS: $114.00  |  CC-SS: $114.06  |  5 contracts (500 sh)  |  2026-07-09 03:37 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $107.77   UNDERWATER $6.23 (5.5% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $114.00  |  CC-SS: $114.06  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)
SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)
HP: $35 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.185/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$47,000(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref$7,558/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$28/mo
Unrealized P&L$-4,588fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,779/mo
HEDGE COVER
$28/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$7,558/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $14,500
ML VELOCITY
6.2 mo to earn back $47,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $114.06 (probe: $114C 13d) still earns $5,308/mo (70% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$1,261
Hole (after banked)
$3,326
was $4,588 · 27% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$116.45 → $114.06
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 65 (live) · RSI 59 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 10 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $155.19 (+44%) · daily UBB $144.36 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $120 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 81%, breach 19%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,779/mo); it brings $3,938/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $112/8d for $7,969/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $134/8d (95% survival, $214/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $114, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-4,613 and cuts bleed by $28/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 5 × $120, 81% survival, $3,938/mo (E[net] $986/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 8d5 × $12081%$3,938$986

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $986/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $120 (primary), 81% survival, breach 19%, $3,938/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $124 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 19% → 14%) for $1,256/mo less (32% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
INTC  spot $107.77 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $13417 Jul8d24.3%95%11%$57$214-$3,724$0
Sell 1 × $134 24.3% OTM over spot $107.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.61 mid)
= $57 credit for the 8d cycle → $214/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $134)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $134.61)
95%
EV / mo
+$137
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.8] median  ·  96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 97% without)  ·  ~0.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $884
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$499
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$145 @ 78% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.86/sh now → $5.56 mid-life (likely $4.40–$7.75)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.99/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 183 simulated challenges: the $134 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $138 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$14124 Jul 202611d left+$0.74/sh+$74
cycle +$131
[-$0…+$144] · 74% credit
74%
surv 65%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$13420 Jul 20267d left-$0.15/sh-$15
cycle +$42
[-$25…+$97] · 63% credit
67%
surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band~$14324 Jul 202611d left+$0.08/sh+$8
cycle +$65
[-$83…+$75] · 45% credit
76%
surv 68%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$14524 Jul 202611d left-$0.52/sh-$52
cycle +$5
[-$161…+$10] · 30% credit
78%
surv 71%
budget: banked $57 debit $52 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,373/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$214/mo
vs 50% target ($3,779/mo)-94%
vs normal income ($7,558/mo)3% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,004/mo
Downside budget
✓ $134 is at/above CC-SS $114.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($14,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-922
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $134.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $134)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $132.66Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$133-134.61
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $134.61
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$134.00 (1.9σ)$57$2,732+$7,320+$1,707
+2.5%$137.35 (2.2σ)$-278$2,828+$7,415+$1,707
+5%$140.70 (2.4σ)$-613$2,923+$7,511+$1,707
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.06, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,588
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,326
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $134): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $114): +$1,375
Total Position P&L @ SS: $113 (+$4,701 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-344, the opportunity cost of earning $214/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield5 × $12817 Jul8d18.8%90%20%$490$1,838-$2,100$0
Sell 5 × $128 18.8% OTM over spot $107.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.02 mid)
= $490 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,838/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $128)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $129.03)
91%
EV / mo
+$1,006
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median  ·  88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without)  ·  ~0.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $478
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,164
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$140 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.50/sh now → $5.31 mid-life (likely $4.47–$7.77)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.33/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 409 simulated challenges: the $128 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $132 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$12820 Jul 20267d left+$0.01/sh+$7
cycle +$497
[-$128…+$458] · 62% credit
67%
surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$13624 Jul 202611d left+$0.44/sh+$221
cycle +$711
[-$220…+$480] · 61% credit
75%
surv 67%
Max even-money escape in the band~$13724 Jul 202611d left+$0.14/sh+$70
cycle +$560
[-$410…+$310] · 48% credit
76%
surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$14024 Jul 202611d left-$0.66/sh-$331
cycle +$159
[-$917…-$111] · 16% credit
79%
surv 73%
budget: banked $490 debit $331 (68% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$159 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,334/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,838/mo
vs 50% target ($3,779/mo)-51%
vs normal income ($7,558/mo)24% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,810/mo
Downside budget
✓ $128 is at/above CC-SS $114.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($14,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-4,610
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $129.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $128)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $126.72Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$127-129.03
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $129.03
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$128.00 (1.5σ)$490$6,594+$11,182+$5,740
+2.5%$131.20 (1.7σ)$-1,110$6,685+$11,273+$5,740
+5%$134.40 (2.0σ)$-2,710$6,776+$11,364+$5,740
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.06, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,588
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,326
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $128): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$3,326 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,718, the opportunity cost of earning $1,838/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal5 × $12417 Jul8d15.1%86%28%$715$2,681-$1,256$0
Sell 5 × $124 15.1% OTM over spot $107.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.49 mid)
= $715 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,681/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $124)
86%
Breach risk
14%
POP (stays ≤ $125.49)
88%
EV / mo
+$1,285
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median  ·  91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without)  ·  ~0.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $704
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
21%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,856
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$138 @ 81% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.27/sh now → $5.14 mid-life (likely $4.88–$8.00)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.71/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 633 simulated challenges: the $124 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $128 (overshoots $3.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$13124 Jul 202611d left+$0.81/sh+$407
cycle +$1,122
[-$78…+$488] · 69% credit
75%
surv 66%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$12420 Jul 20267d left+$0.11/sh+$57
cycle +$772
[-$152…+$355] · 55% credit
67%
surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band~$13324 Jul 202611d left+$0.17/sh+$84
cycle +$799
[-$474…+$147] · 35% credit
76%
surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13824 Jul 202611d left-$1.20/sh-$602
cycle +$113
[-$1,341…-$582] · 7% credit
81%
surv 76%
budget: banked $715 debit $602 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$113 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,371/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,681/mo
vs 50% target ($3,779/mo)-29%
vs normal income ($7,558/mo)35% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,653/mo
Downside budget
✓ $124 is at/above CC-SS $114.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($14,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-4,618
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.43 collected) or spot ≥ $125.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $124)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $122.76Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$123-125.49
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $125.49
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$124.00 (1.2σ)$715$4,705+$9,293+$3,965
+2.5%$127.10 (1.4σ)$-835$4,793+$9,381+$3,965
+5%$130.20 (1.6σ)$-2,385$4,882+$9,469+$3,965
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.06, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,588
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,326
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $124): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$3,326 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,718, the opportunity cost of earning $2,681/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal5 × $12017 Jul8d11.3%81%32%$1,050$3,938$0
Sell 5 × $120 11.3% OTM over spot $107.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.15 mid)
= $1,050 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,938/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $120)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $122.15)
84%
EV / mo
+$1,617
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median  ·  93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without)  ·  ~1.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,043
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
32%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,438
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$138 @ 84% POP
81% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.03/sh now → $4.98 mid-life (likely $5.26–$8.09)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.88/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 949 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $123 (overshoots $3.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$12724 Jul 202611d left+$0.83/sh+$415
cycle +$1,465
[-$114…+$390] · 67% credit
75%
surv 66%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$12020 Jul 20267d left+$0.21/sh+$105
cycle +$1,155
[-$163…+$231] · 49% credit
67%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$12020 Jul 20267d left+$0.08/sh+$42
cycle +$1,092
[-$242…+$161] · 40% credit
68%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$12924 Jul 202611d left+$0.19/sh+$94
cycle +$1,144
[-$513…+$47] · 27% credit
77%
surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13824 Jul 202611d left-$2.05/sh-$1,027
cycle +$23
[-$1,952…-$1,143]
84%
surv 81%
budget: banked $1,050 debit $1,027 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,984/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,938/mo
vs 50% target ($3,779/mo)+4%
vs normal income ($7,558/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,910/mo
Downside budget
✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $114.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($14,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-4,613
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $122.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $118.80Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$119-122.15
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $122.15
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$120.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,050$2,926+$7,514+$2,300
+2.5%$123.00 (1.1σ)$-450$3,012+$7,599+$2,300
+5%$126.00 (1.3σ)$-1,950$3,097+$7,685+$2,300
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.06, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,588
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,326
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $120): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$3,326 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,718, the opportunity cost of earning $3,938/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal5 × $11217 Jul8d3.9%64%76%$2,125$7,969+$4,031$0
Sell 5 × $112 3.9% OTM over spot $107.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $4.38 mid)
= $2,125 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,969/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $112)
64%
Breach risk
36%
POP (stays ≤ $116.38)
74%
EV / mo
+$2,010
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without)  ·  ~3.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,123
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
61%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$197
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 22 Jul 2026)
$131 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.57/sh now → $4.64 mid-life (likely $6.06–$8.53)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $4.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,842 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $115 (overshoots $3.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$11824 Jul 202611d left+$1.14/sh+$570
cycle +$2,695
[-$29…+$352] · 72% credit
74%
surv 65%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$11220 Jul 20267d left+$0.38/sh+$190
cycle +$2,315
[-$170…+$68] · 32% credit
67%
surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$11220 Jul 20267d left+$0.26/sh+$128
cycle +$2,253
[-$249…-$4] · 25% credit
68%
surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band~$12124 Jul 202611d left+$0.21/sh+$104
cycle +$2,229
[-$610…-$143] · 13% credit
77%
surv 70%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13122 Jul 20269d left-$3.69/sh-$1,844
cycle +$281
[-$3,251…-$2,349]
90%
surv 89%
budget: banked $2,125 debit $1,844 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$281 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,595/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,969/mo
vs 50% target ($3,779/mo)+111%
vs normal income ($7,558/mo)105% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,941/mo
Downside budget
✓ $112 is at/above CC-SS $114.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($14,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-4,650
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.06/sh (~25% of the $4.25 collected) or spot ≥ $116.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $144.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $110.88Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$111-116.38
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $116.38
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$112.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,125$-227+$4,361+$375
+2.5%$114.80 (≤1σ, normal week)$725$-147+$4,440-$625
+5%$117.60 (≤1σ, normal week)$-675$-67+$4,520-$625
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.06, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,588
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,326
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $112): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,261 (+$3,326 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,718, the opportunity cost of earning $7,969/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on INTC are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (84 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 84 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.057 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$3,326 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $457

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$1174d13 Jul 2026$1.015/5$3,788$3,76085%87%+$1,986-$00.0%$-756 (vs do-nothing $-1,213)
$1164d13 Jul 2026$1.185/5$4,425$4,39782%86%+$2,172-$00.0%$-671 (vs do-nothing $-1,128)
$1186d15 Jul 2026$1.575/5$3,925$3,89781%85%+$1,716-$00.0%$-476 (vs do-nothing $-933)
$1208d17 Jul 2026$2.105/5$3,938$3,91081%84%+$1,617-$00.0%$-211 (vs do-nothing $-668)
$1154d13 Jul 2026$1.394/5$4,170$5,09780%84%+$1,924-$00.0%$-362 (vs do-nothing $-819)
$1176d15 Jul 2026$1.795/5$4,475$4,44779%83%+$1,859-$00.0%$-366 (vs do-nothing $-823)
$1198d17 Jul 2026$2.315/5$4,331$4,30379%83%+$1,705-$00.0%$-106 (vs do-nothing $-563)
$12515d24 Jul 2026$3.955/5$3,950$3,92278%82%+$1,321-$00.0%$714 (vs do-nothing +$257)
$12415d24 Jul 2026$4.205/5$4,200$4,17277%82%+$1,387-$00.0%$839 (vs do-nothing +$382)
$1188d17 Jul 2026$2.524/5$3,780$4,70777%82%+$1,405-$00.0%$90 (vs do-nothing $-367)
$1166d15 Jul 2026$2.034/5$4,060$4,98777%82%+$1,589-$00.0%$-106 (vs do-nothing $-563)
$1144d13 Jul 2026$1.614/5$4,830$5,75777%82%+$2,045-$00.0%$-299 (vs do-nothing $-756)
$12315d24 Jul 2026$4.355/5$4,350$4,32276%81%+$1,341-$00.0%$914 (vs do-nothing +$457)
Show 71 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 71.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$1178d17 Jul 2026$2.754/5$4,125$5,05275%80%+$1,444-$00.0%$182 (vs do-nothing $-275)
$12215d24 Jul 2026$4.605/5$4,600$4,57275%80%+$1,382-$00.0%$1,039 (vs do-nothing +$582)
$1156d15 Jul 2026$2.304/5$4,600$5,52774%80%+$1,692-$00.0%$2 (vs do-nothing $-455)
$11711d20 Jul 2026$2.895/5$3,941$3,91374%80%+$1,153-$00.0%$184 (vs do-nothing $-273)
$12115d24 Jul 2026$4.854/5$3,880$4,80774%80%+$1,128-$00.0%$1,022 (vs do-nothing +$565)
$1134d13 Jul 2026$1.624/5$4,860$5,78773%79%+$1,427-$00.0%$-695 (vs do-nothing $-1,152)
$1168d17 Jul 2026$3.004/5$4,500$5,42773%79%+$1,480-$00.0%$282 (vs do-nothing $-175)
$12015d24 Jul 2026$5.204/5$4,160$5,08773%79%+$1,219-$00.0%$1,162 (vs do-nothing +$705)
$11713d22 Jul 2026$3.355/5$3,865$3,83772%79%+$890-$00.0%$414 (vs do-nothing $-43)
$11611d20 Jul 2026$3.155/5$4,295$4,26872%79%+$1,189-$00.0%$314 (vs do-nothing $-143)
$1146d15 Jul 2026$2.563/5$3,840$5,72172%79%+$1,283-$00.0%$175 (vs do-nothing $-282)
$11915d24 Jul 2026$5.404/5$4,320$5,24771%78%+$1,179-$00.0%$1,242 (vs do-nothing +$785)
$1158d17 Jul 2026$3.304/5$4,950$5,87771%78%+$1,554-$00.0%$402 (vs do-nothing $-55)
$11613d22 Jul 2026$3.655/5$4,212$4,18470%77%+$944-$00.0%$564 (vs do-nothing +$107)
$11511d20 Jul 2026$3.405/5$4,636$4,60870%77%+$1,179-$00.0%$439 (vs do-nothing $-18)
$11815d24 Jul 2026$5.704/5$4,560$5,48770%77%+$1,206-$00.0%$1,362 (vs do-nothing +$905)
$1124d13 Jul 2026$2.183/5$4,905$6,78669%77%+$1,751-$00.0%$-539 (vs do-nothing $-996)
$1136d15 Jul 2026$2.883/5$4,320$6,20169%77%+$1,337-$00.0%$-29 (vs do-nothing $-486)
$11715d24 Jul 2026$6.004/5$4,800$5,72769%77%+$1,221-$00.0%$1,482 (vs do-nothing +$1,025)
$11513d22 Jul 2026$4.005/5$4,615$4,58769%76%+$1,030-$00.0%$739 (vs do-nothing +$282)
$1148d17 Jul 2026$3.553/5$3,994$5,87569%76%+$1,136-$00.0%$472 (vs do-nothing +$15)
$11411d20 Jul 2026$3.504/5$3,818$4,74568%76%+$745-$00.0%$457 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$11615d24 Jul 2026$6.303/5$3,780$5,66167%76%+$917-$00.0%$1,316 (vs do-nothing +$859)
$11413d22 Jul 2026$4.604/5$4,246$5,17367%76%+$1,102-$00.0%$897 (vs do-nothing +$440)
$1138d17 Jul 2026$3.903/5$4,388$6,26966%75%+$1,187-$00.0%$277 (vs do-nothing $-180)
$11515d24 Jul 2026$6.653/5$3,990$5,87166%75%+$938-$00.0%$1,421 (vs do-nothing +$964)
$1126d15 Jul 2026$3.103/5$4,650$6,53166%75%+$1,186-$00.0%$-263 (vs do-nothing $-720)
$11311d20 Jul 2026$3.954/5$4,309$5,23666%75%+$899-$00.0%$237 (vs do-nothing $-220)
$1114d13 Jul 2026$2.522/5$3,780$6,61666%75%+$1,223-$1090.7%$-339 (vs do-nothing $-796)
$11313d22 Jul 2026$4.354/5$4,015$4,94265%74%+$571-$00.0%$397 (vs do-nothing $-60)
$11415d24 Jul 2026$6.953/5$4,170$6,05164%74%+$918-$00.0%$1,492 (vs do-nothing +$1,035)
$1128d17 Jul 2026$4.253/5$4,781$6,66264%74%+$1,206-$00.0%$82 (vs do-nothing $-375)
$11211d20 Jul 2026$4.354/5$4,745$5,67263%74%+$967-$00.0%$-3 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$11315d24 Jul 2026$7.303/5$4,380$6,26163%73%+$917-$00.0%$1,297 (vs do-nothing +$840)
$1116d15 Jul 2026$3.403/5$5,100$6,98163%73%+$1,098-$00.0%$-473 (vs do-nothing $-930)
$11213d22 Jul 2026$4.804/5$4,431$5,35763%73%+$663-$00.0%$177 (vs do-nothing $-280)
$1104d13 Jul 2026$2.882/5$4,320$7,15661%73%+$1,236-$2371.6%$-467 (vs do-nothing $-924)
$1118d17 Jul 2026$4.653/5$5,231$7,11261%73%+$1,247-$00.0%$-98 (vs do-nothing $-555)
$11215d24 Jul 2026$7.703/5$4,620$6,50161%73%+$935-$00.0%$1,117 (vs do-nothing +$660)
$11111d20 Jul 2026$4.653/5$3,805$5,68661%72%+$671-$00.0%$-98 (vs do-nothing $-555)
$11113d22 Jul 2026$5.154/5$4,754$5,68060%72%+$638-$00.0%$-83 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$11115d24 Jul 2026$8.103/5$4,860$6,74160%72%+$941-$00.0%$937 (vs do-nothing +$480)
$1106d15 Jul 2026$3.802/5$3,800$6,63659%72%+$734-$530.4%$-283 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$1108d17 Jul 2026$5.052/5$3,788$6,62359%71%+$835-$00.0%$-33 (vs do-nothing $-490)
$11011d20 Jul 2026$5.103/5$4,173$6,05459%71%+$715-$00.0%$-263 (vs do-nothing $-720)
$11013d22 Jul 2026$5.903/5$4,085$5,96658%71%+$717-$00.0%$-23 (vs do-nothing $-480)
$11015d24 Jul 2026$8.503/5$5,100$6,98158%71%+$936-$00.0%$757 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$1094d13 Jul 2026$3.302/5$4,950$7,78657%71%+$1,260-$3532.4%$-583 (vs do-nothing $-1,040)
$10915d24 Jul 2026$9.003/5$5,400$7,28156%70%+$978-$00.0%$607 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$1096d15 Jul 2026$4.352/5$4,350$7,18656%70%+$847-$1431.0%$-373 (vs do-nothing $-830)
$1098d17 Jul 2026$5.502/5$4,125$6,96156%70%+$852-$00.0%$-143 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$10913d22 Jul 2026$6.003/5$4,154$6,03556%70%+$487-$00.0%$-293 (vs do-nothing $-750)
$10911d20 Jul 2026$5.403/5$4,418$6,29956%70%+$609-$00.0%$-473 (vs do-nothing $-930)
$10815d24 Jul 2026$9.403/5$5,640$7,52155%70%+$947-$00.0%$427 (vs do-nothing $-30)
$10813d22 Jul 2026$6.553/5$4,535$6,41654%69%+$547-$00.0%$-428 (vs do-nothing $-885)
$10811d20 Jul 2026$6.053/5$4,950$6,83153%69%+$764-$40.0%$-578 (vs do-nothing $-1,035)
$1088d17 Jul 2026$5.902/5$4,425$7,26153%69%+$806-$330.2%$-263 (vs do-nothing $-720)
$10715d24 Jul 2026$9.902/5$3,960$6,79653%69%+$643-$00.0%$337 (vs do-nothing $-120)
$1086d15 Jul 2026$4.652/5$4,650$7,48653%68%+$669-$2831.9%$-513 (vs do-nothing $-970)
$1084d13 Jul 2026$3.752/5$5,625$8,46153%69%+$1,247-$4633.2%$-693 (vs do-nothing $-1,150)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-09 03:37