FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $105.68

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $110.12 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $105.68 UNDERWATER $8.32 (7.3% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $110.12 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.185/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$14,182/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$31/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,555	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,091/mo

HEDGE COVER
$31/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,182/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $47,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $110.12 (probe: $110C 11d) still earns $11,727/mo (83% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,261

Hole (after banked)

$2,294

was $3,555 · 35% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$496

CC-SS ratchet

$112.41 → $110.12

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $130C 15 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.99	$496	2026-07-10

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $110.12 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $114 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

70%

Touch odds

64%

Per cycle

$3,450

Income / mo

$9,409

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $12.10/sh now → $8.57 mid-life (likely $10.36–$14.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,565 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $118 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.80/sh	+$898 cycle +$4,348 [+$117…+$770] · 83% credit	72% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$114	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.55/sh	+$773 cycle +$4,223 [-$30…+$634] · 72% credit	73% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$117	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.30/sh	+$150 cycle +$3,600 [-$703…-$69] · 23% credit	75% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$117	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.30/sh	+$150 cycle +$3,600 [-$703…-$69] · 23% credit	75% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$138	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$6.13/sh	-$3,064 cycle +$386 [-$4,960…-$3,666]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $3,450 debit $3,064 (89% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$386 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,047/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $113 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $113)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$1,675

Income / mo

$12,562

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.05/sh now → $5.69 mid-life (likely $6.17–$10.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 807 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $116 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$122	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.92/sh	+$960 cycle +$2,635 [-$452…+$890] · 63% credit	79% surv 69%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$113	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.14/sh	+$71 cycle +$1,746 [-$666…+$187] · 33% credit	75% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$127	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.22/sh	+$108 cycle +$1,783 [-$1,474…+$4] · 25% credit	82% surv 76%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$134	24 Jul 2026	9d left	-$3.12/sh	-$1,560 cycle +$115 [-$3,482…-$1,788]	90% surv 88%
budget: banked $1,675 debit $1,560 (93% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$115 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,288/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $131 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $131)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,240

Income / mo

$3,382

Buyback gross: $13.91/sh now → $9.84 mid-life (likely $8.61–$14.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 426 simulated challenges: the $131 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $135 (overshoots $4.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$131	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.25/sh	+$624 cycle +$1,864 [+$229…+$1,300] · 85% credit	72% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$131	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.99/sh	+$496 cycle +$1,736 [+$79…+$1,160] · 79% credit	72% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$133	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.09/sh	+$47 cycle +$1,287 [-$459…+$645] · 48% credit	74% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$133	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.09/sh	+$47 cycle +$1,287 [-$459…+$645] · 48% credit	74% surv 58%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$138	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.17/sh	-$1,084 cycle +$156 [-$1,826…-$628] · 9% credit	78% surv 66%
budget: banked $1,240 debit $1,084 (87% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$156 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,594/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (58 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 58 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.057 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,347 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,242

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$117	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.12	5/5	$7,950	$7,919	90%	93%	+$6,978	-$0	0.0%	$-148 (vs do-nothing $-2,390)
$116	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.39	4/5	$7,170	$9,021	88%	92%	+$6,168	-$0	0.0%	$438 (vs do-nothing $-1,804)
$115	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.70	4/5	$8,100	$9,951	86%	91%	+$6,816	-$0	0.0%	$562 (vs do-nothing $-1,680)
$114	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.00	4/5	$9,000	$10,851	83%	90%	+$7,365	-$0	0.0%	$682 (vs do-nothing $-1,560)
$113	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.35	3/5	$7,538	$11,270	80%	89%	+$5,988	-$0	0.0%	$1,177 (vs do-nothing $-1,065)
$119	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.20	5/5	$7,091	$7,060	78%	84%	+$4,258	-$0	0.0%	$1,392 (vs do-nothing $-850)
$112	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.75	3/5	$8,438	$12,170	77%	88%	+$6,493	-$0	0.0%	$1,297 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$113	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.60	5/5	$7,714	$7,684	76%	86%	+$5,290	-$0	0.0%	$592 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$118	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.45	5/5	$7,432	$7,401	76%	83%	+$4,328	-$0	0.0%	$1,517 (vs do-nothing $-725)
$117	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	5/5	$7,841	$7,810	75%	83%	+$4,444	-$0	0.0%	$1,667 (vs do-nothing $-575)
$111	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.20	3/5	$9,450	$13,183	74%	86%	+$7,030	-$0	0.0%	$1,432 (vs do-nothing $-810)
$112	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.55	5/5	$7,607	$7,576	74%	84%	+$4,737	-$0	0.0%	$567 (vs do-nothing $-1,675)
$116	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.10	5/5	$8,318	$8,287	73%	82%	+$4,604	-$0	0.0%	$1,842 (vs do-nothing $-400)

Show 45 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$115	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	4/5	$7,145	$8,997	71%	81%	+$3,901	-$0	0.0%	$2,102 (vs do-nothing $-140)
$111	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.45	4/5	$7,629	$9,480	71%	83%	+$4,919	-$0	0.0%	$1,262 (vs do-nothing $-980)
$110	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.65	3/5	$10,462	$14,195	70%	85%	+$7,475	-$0	0.0%	$1,531 (vs do-nothing $-711)
$114	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.90	4/5	$7,527	$9,378	70%	80%	+$3,987	-$0	0.0%	$2,242 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$113	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.30	4/5	$7,964	$9,815	68%	80%	+$4,106	-$0	0.0%	$2,402 (vs do-nothing +$160)
$111	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.75	5/5	$7,917	$7,886	68%	81%	+$3,919	-$0	0.0%	$1,167 (vs do-nothing $-1,075)
$110	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.95	4/5	$8,486	$10,337	68%	82%	+$5,301	-$0	0.0%	$1,414 (vs do-nothing $-828)
$113	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.60	5/5	$7,167	$7,136	66%	78%	+$3,148	-$0	0.0%	$3,092 (vs do-nothing +$850)
$109	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.20	2/5	$7,800	$13,415	66%	84%	+$5,362	-$0	0.0%	$1,678 (vs do-nothing $-564)
$112	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.70	4/5	$8,400	$10,251	66%	79%	+$4,203	-$0	0.0%	$2,562 (vs do-nothing +$320)
$110	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.45	4/5	$7,267	$9,118	65%	79%	+$3,645	-$0	0.0%	$1,614 (vs do-nothing $-628)
$112	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.00	5/5	$7,500	$7,469	65%	77%	+$3,206	-$0	0.0%	$3,292 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$111	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.15	4/5	$8,891	$10,742	64%	78%	+$4,329	-$0	0.0%	$2,742 (vs do-nothing +$500)
$109	7d	20 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$8,914	$10,765	64%	81%	+$5,187	-$0	0.0%	$1,114 (vs do-nothing $-1,128)
$111	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.30	5/5	$7,750	$7,719	63%	77%	+$3,166	-$0	0.0%	$3,442 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$109	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/5	$8,000	$9,851	63%	80%	+$4,160	-$0	0.0%	$1,434 (vs do-nothing $-808)
$110	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.60	4/5	$9,382	$11,233	62%	77%	+$4,431	-$0	0.0%	$2,874 (vs do-nothing +$632)
$108	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.65	2/5	$8,475	$14,090	62%	83%	+$5,518	-$0	0.0%	$1,568 (vs do-nothing $-674)
$110	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.10	5/5	$8,417	$8,386	62%	76%	+$3,526	-$0	0.0%	$3,782 (vs do-nothing +$1,540)
$108	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/5	$7,971	$11,704	61%	81%	+$4,714	-$0	0.0%	$1,396 (vs do-nothing $-846)
$109	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.00	3/5	$7,364	$11,097	60%	76%	+$3,339	-$0	0.0%	$2,536 (vs do-nothing +$294)
$109	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	5/5	$8,750	$8,719	60%	75%	+$3,536	-$0	0.0%	$3,482 (vs do-nothing +$1,240)
$108	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.15	4/5	$8,200	$10,051	60%	77%	+$3,845	-$0	0.0%	$1,094 (vs do-nothing $-1,148)
$108	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.45	3/5	$7,732	$11,465	58%	76%	+$3,376	-$0	0.0%	$2,371 (vs do-nothing +$129)
$108	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.80	4/5	$7,200	$9,051	58%	75%	+$2,757	-$0	0.0%	$2,954 (vs do-nothing +$712)
$107	4d	17 Jul 2026	$6.20	2/5	$9,300	$14,915	58%	81%	+$5,744	-$0	0.0%	$1,478 (vs do-nothing $-764)
$107	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/5	$8,036	$11,769	57%	79%	+$4,260	-$0	0.0%	$1,111 (vs do-nothing $-1,131)
$107	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.95	4/5	$7,300	$9,151	57%	74%	+$2,571	-$0	0.0%	$2,614 (vs do-nothing +$372)
$107	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.05	4/5	$9,400	$11,251	56%	78%	+$4,482	-$0	0.0%	$1,054 (vs do-nothing $-1,188)
$107	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.85	3/5	$8,059	$11,792	56%	75%	+$3,352	-$0	0.0%	$2,191 (vs do-nothing $-51)
$106	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	4/5	$7,767	$9,618	55%	73%	+$2,738	-$0	0.0%	$2,494 (vs do-nothing +$252)
$106	11d	24 Jul 2026	$10.40	3/5	$8,509	$12,242	54%	74%	+$3,430	-$0	0.0%	$2,056 (vs do-nothing $-186)
$106	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.35	3/5	$7,350	$11,083	53%	75%	+$3,038	-$0	0.0%	$1,141 (vs do-nothing $-1,101)
$106	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.30	3/5	$8,100	$11,833	53%	78%	+$3,746	-$0	0.0%	$826 (vs do-nothing $-1,416)
$106	4d	17 Jul 2026	$6.70	2/5	$10,050	$15,665	53%	80%	+$5,815	-$0	0.0%	$1,378 (vs do-nothing $-864)
$105	18d	31 Jul 2026	$12.45	4/5	$8,300	$10,151	53%	73%	+$2,958	-$0	0.0%	$2,414 (vs do-nothing +$172)
$105	11d	24 Jul 2026	$10.90	3/5	$8,918	$12,651	52%	73%	+$3,446	-$0	0.0%	$1,906 (vs do-nothing $-336)
$104	18d	31 Jul 2026	$12.50	4/5	$8,333	$10,184	51%	72%	+$2,663	-$0	0.0%	$2,034 (vs do-nothing $-208)
$105	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.65	3/5	$7,650	$11,383	50%	75%	+$3,001	-$0	0.0%	$931 (vs do-nothing $-1,311)
$104	11d	24 Jul 2026	$11.50	3/5	$9,409	$13,142	50%	73%	+$3,522	-$0	0.0%	$1,786 (vs do-nothing $-456)
$105	7d	20 Jul 2026	$7.60	3/5	$9,771	$13,504	49%	77%	+$4,778	-$0	0.0%	$916 (vs do-nothing $-1,326)
$105	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.50	2/5	$11,250	$16,865	49%	79%	+$6,251	-$0	0.0%	$1,338 (vs do-nothing $-904)
$104	9d	22 Jul 2026	$8.95	3/5	$8,950	$12,683	47%	74%	+$3,762	-$0	0.0%	$1,021 (vs do-nothing $-1,221)
$104	7d	20 Jul 2026	$7.60	3/5	$9,771	$13,504	46%	76%	+$4,076	-$0	0.0%	$616 (vs do-nothing $-1,626)
$104	4d	17 Jul 2026	$8.05	2/5	$12,075	$17,690	44%	78%	+$6,230	-$0	0.0%	$1,248 (vs do-nothing $-994)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:27