FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $105.20

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $109.62 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $105.20 UNDERWATER $8.80 (7.7% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $109.62 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.185/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$14,591/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$31/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,555	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,295/mo

HEDGE COVER
$31/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,591/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $47,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $109.62 (probe: $110C 11d) still earns $11,727/mo (80% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,261

Hole (after banked)

$2,294

was $3,555 · 35% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$496

CC-SS ratchet

$113.10 → $109.62

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $130C 15 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.99	$496	2026-07-10

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $109.62 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $115 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

70%

Touch odds

65%

Per cycle

$3,950

Income / mo

$6,583

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $113 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $113)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$1,675

Income / mo

$12,562

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.05/sh now → $5.69 mid-life (likely $6.11–$10.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 760 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $116 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$123	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.94/sh	+$971 cycle +$2,646 [-$388…+$927] · 66% credit	80% surv 70%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$113	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.73/sh	+$363 cycle +$2,038 [-$369…+$416] · 52% credit	74% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$128	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.24/sh	+$118 cycle +$1,793 [-$1,402…+$28] · 26% credit	83% surv 76%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$134	24 Jul 2026	9d left	-$3.05/sh	-$1,525 cycle +$150 [-$3,317…-$1,719]	90% surv 88%
budget: banked $1,675 debit $1,525 (91% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$150 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,402/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $122 22 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $122)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$460

Income / mo

$1,533

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $11.38/sh now → $8.05 mid-life (likely $6.77–$11.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 451 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $125 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$122	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.98/sh	+$491 cycle +$951 [-$26…+$627] · 74% credit	74% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$127	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$1.22/sh	+$608 cycle +$1,068 [-$62…+$1,069] · 72% credit	76% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$123	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.55/sh	+$275 cycle +$735 [-$289…+$370] · 58% credit	75% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$129	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.12/sh	+$59 cycle +$519 [-$702…+$485] · 42% credit	77% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$131	31 Jul 2026	14d left	-$0.65/sh	-$324 cycle +$136 [-$1,145…+$68] · 28% credit	79% surv 69%
budget: banked $460 debit $324 (70% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$136 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,932/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (56 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 56 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$1,989 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,884

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$117	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.12	5/5	$7,950	$7,919	91%	94%	+$7,073	-$0	0.0%	$-506 (vs do-nothing $-2,390)
$116	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.39	5/5	$8,962	$8,932	89%	93%	+$7,820	-$0	0.0%	$-371 (vs do-nothing $-2,255)
$115	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.70	4/5	$8,100	$9,951	87%	92%	+$6,919	-$0	0.0%	$204 (vs do-nothing $-1,680)
$114	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.00	4/5	$9,000	$10,851	84%	91%	+$7,489	-$0	0.0%	$324 (vs do-nothing $-1,560)
$113	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.35	3/5	$7,538	$11,270	82%	90%	+$6,100	-$0	0.0%	$819 (vs do-nothing $-1,065)
$112	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.75	3/5	$8,438	$12,170	79%	88%	+$6,631	-$0	0.0%	$939 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$113	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.60	5/5	$7,714	$7,684	78%	87%	+$5,516	-$0	0.0%	$234 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$118	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.45	5/5	$7,432	$7,401	77%	84%	+$4,493	-$0	0.0%	$1,159 (vs do-nothing $-725)
$117	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	5/5	$7,841	$7,810	75%	83%	+$4,620	-$0	0.0%	$1,309 (vs do-nothing $-575)
$111	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.20	3/5	$9,450	$13,183	75%	87%	+$7,201	-$0	0.0%	$1,074 (vs do-nothing $-810)
$112	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.55	5/5	$7,607	$7,576	75%	85%	+$4,995	-$0	0.0%	$209 (vs do-nothing $-1,675)
$116	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.10	5/5	$8,318	$8,287	74%	83%	+$4,793	-$0	0.0%	$1,484 (vs do-nothing $-400)
$115	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	5/5	$8,932	$8,901	72%	82%	+$5,077	-$0	0.0%	$1,709 (vs do-nothing $-175)

Show 43 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$110	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.65	3/5	$10,462	$14,195	72%	86%	+$7,687	-$0	0.0%	$1,209 (vs do-nothing $-675)
$114	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.90	4/5	$7,527	$9,378	71%	81%	+$4,159	-$0	0.0%	$1,884 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$111	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.45	4/5	$7,629	$9,480	71%	82%	+$4,547	-$0	0.0%	$904 (vs do-nothing $-980)
$111	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.75	5/5	$7,917	$7,886	70%	83%	+$4,483	-$0	0.0%	$809 (vs do-nothing $-1,075)
$110	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.95	4/5	$8,486	$10,337	69%	83%	+$5,566	-$0	0.0%	$1,104 (vs do-nothing $-780)
$113	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.30	4/5	$7,964	$9,815	69%	80%	+$4,290	-$0	0.0%	$2,044 (vs do-nothing +$160)
$109	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.20	2/5	$7,800	$13,415	68%	85%	+$5,600	-$0	0.0%	$1,420 (vs do-nothing $-464)
$112	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.70	4/5	$8,400	$10,251	67%	80%	+$4,397	-$0	0.0%	$2,204 (vs do-nothing +$320)
$110	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.45	5/5	$9,083	$9,053	67%	81%	+$5,151	-$0	0.0%	$1,159 (vs do-nothing $-725)
$109	7d	20 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$8,914	$10,765	66%	82%	+$5,484	-$0	0.0%	$956 (vs do-nothing $-928)
$112	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.00	5/5	$7,500	$7,469	66%	78%	+$3,368	-$0	0.0%	$2,934 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$111	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.15	4/5	$8,891	$10,742	65%	79%	+$4,536	-$0	0.0%	$2,384 (vs do-nothing +$500)
$108	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.65	2/5	$8,475	$14,090	64%	84%	+$5,791	-$0	0.0%	$1,310 (vs do-nothing $-574)
$111	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.30	5/5	$7,750	$7,719	64%	77%	+$3,335	-$0	0.0%	$3,084 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$109	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/5	$8,000	$9,851	64%	81%	+$4,410	-$0	0.0%	$1,276 (vs do-nothing $-608)
$110	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.60	4/5	$9,382	$11,233	63%	78%	+$4,650	-$0	0.0%	$2,564 (vs do-nothing +$680)
$110	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.10	5/5	$8,417	$8,386	62%	77%	+$3,703	-$0	0.0%	$3,484 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)
$108	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/5	$7,971	$11,704	62%	79%	+$4,430	-$0	0.0%	$1,188 (vs do-nothing $-696)
$109	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.00	3/5	$7,364	$11,097	61%	77%	+$3,513	-$0	0.0%	$2,328 (vs do-nothing +$444)
$108	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.15	4/5	$8,200	$10,051	61%	79%	+$4,118	-$0	0.0%	$936 (vs do-nothing $-948)
$109	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	5/5	$8,750	$8,719	61%	76%	+$3,721	-$0	0.0%	$3,374 (vs do-nothing +$1,490)
$107	4d	17 Jul 2026	$6.20	2/5	$9,300	$14,915	60%	83%	+$6,055	-$0	0.0%	$1,220 (vs do-nothing $-664)
$108	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.45	3/5	$7,732	$11,465	59%	76%	+$3,559	-$0	0.0%	$2,163 (vs do-nothing +$279)
$108	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.80	5/5	$9,000	$8,969	59%	75%	+$3,640	-$0	0.0%	$3,024 (vs do-nothing +$1,140)
$107	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/5	$8,036	$11,769	59%	80%	+$4,536	-$0	0.0%	$903 (vs do-nothing $-981)
$107	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.05	4/5	$9,400	$11,251	58%	79%	+$4,778	-$0	0.0%	$896 (vs do-nothing $-988)
$107	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.95	4/5	$7,300	$9,151	57%	75%	+$2,733	-$0	0.0%	$2,456 (vs do-nothing +$572)
$107	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.85	3/5	$8,059	$11,792	57%	76%	+$3,545	-$0	0.0%	$1,983 (vs do-nothing +$99)
$106	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	4/5	$7,767	$9,618	56%	74%	+$2,906	-$0	0.0%	$2,336 (vs do-nothing +$452)
$106	4d	17 Jul 2026	$6.70	2/5	$10,050	$15,665	55%	82%	+$6,163	-$0	0.0%	$1,120 (vs do-nothing $-764)
$106	11d	24 Jul 2026	$10.40	3/5	$8,509	$12,242	55%	75%	+$3,633	-$0	0.0%	$1,848 (vs do-nothing $-36)
$106	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.30	3/5	$8,100	$11,833	55%	77%	+$3,504	-$0	0.0%	$618 (vs do-nothing $-1,266)
$106	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.35	3/5	$7,350	$11,083	55%	77%	+$3,440	-$0	0.0%	$933 (vs do-nothing $-951)
$105	18d	31 Jul 2026	$12.45	4/5	$8,300	$10,151	54%	74%	+$3,132	-$0	0.0%	$2,256 (vs do-nothing +$372)
$105	11d	24 Jul 2026	$10.90	3/5	$8,918	$12,651	53%	74%	+$3,658	-$0	0.0%	$1,698 (vs do-nothing $-186)
$104	18d	31 Jul 2026	$12.50	4/5	$8,333	$10,184	52%	73%	+$2,844	-$0	0.0%	$1,876 (vs do-nothing $-8)
$105	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.65	3/5	$7,650	$11,383	52%	76%	+$3,258	-$0	0.0%	$723 (vs do-nothing $-1,161)
$105	7d	20 Jul 2026	$7.60	3/5	$9,771	$13,504	52%	76%	+$4,572	-$0	0.0%	$708 (vs do-nothing $-1,176)
$104	11d	24 Jul 2026	$11.50	3/5	$9,409	$13,142	51%	73%	+$3,745	-$0	0.0%	$1,578 (vs do-nothing $-306)
$105	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.50	2/5	$11,250	$16,865	51%	80%	+$6,638	-$0	0.0%	$1,080 (vs do-nothing $-804)
$104	9d	22 Jul 2026	$8.95	3/5	$8,950	$12,683	49%	75%	+$4,037	-$0	0.0%	$813 (vs do-nothing $-1,071)
$104	7d	20 Jul 2026	$7.60	3/5	$9,771	$13,504	48%	76%	+$3,917	-$0	0.0%	$408 (vs do-nothing $-1,476)
$104	4d	17 Jul 2026	$8.05	2/5	$12,075	$17,690	46%	79%	+$6,655	-$0	0.0%	$990 (vs do-nothing $-894)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:35